HF Habs: What are our real odds for Lafreniere? (Use this thread for Lafreniere talk)

[26Mats]

There's so many variables this season though that it is very hard to make an educated guess.

Extremely true.

Pens could come out flat after the long layoff, if the season actually starts back.

What a nightmare beating the Pens would be. We need that lottert draft pick, even if #9 overall.

 

[Jee]

You know they say that all teams are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Pittsburgh and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another team, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Toronto to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at NHL Draft, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Toronto KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!
So Pittsburgh, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at . But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at NHL Draft. See Pittsburgh, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at NHL Draft.

 

[DavePeak]

You know they say that all teams are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Pittsburgh and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another team, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Toronto to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at NHL Draft, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Toronto KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try!
So Pittsburgh, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at . But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at NHL Draft. See Pittsburgh, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at NHL Draft.

That’s homeopathic calculus right there! Can’t be wrong, it’s medicine!

(Great copypasta )

 

[groovejuice]

The odds are not 50/50 for the Penguins series. Both outcomes are possible but one is more likely. If the Habs must lose the series for a shot at #1, the odds went up. If they have to win, the odds dropped.

 

[rickthegoon]

Stop trying to do the math, my crystal ball says that we beat Pittsburgh in the tourney, then we get slaughtered in the playoffs and Pittsburgh ends up with the loto win, drafts Lafrenière and he then plays on Crosby’s line and gets 80 pts in his first season. Then Bergevin says......ahhh, who cares anymore what he says.

 

[tinyzombies]

Pittsburgh’s top 9 is impeccable at digging pucks and scoring. Their fourth line was shutdown. They have two excellent d pairs and odds are either goalie will be on. And they have tons of rings. Asking Suzuki to shut down Sid or Malkin is a tall order this early in his career. I don’t see it- esp the way our D turns the puck over. Also Malkin looks great in those training videos and you know Sid will be in top form.

 

[Kotkaniemi Suzuki]

Pittsburgh’s top 9 is impeccable at digging pucks and scoring. Their fourth line was shutdown. They have two excellent d pairs and odds are either goalie will be on. And they have tons of rings. Asking Suzuki to shut down Sid or Malkin is a tall order this early in his career. I don’t see it- esp the way our D turns the puck over. Also Malkin looks great in those training videos and you know Sid will be in top form.

It will be all on Price. And unfortunately the price is wrong. Our defence is a literal joke.

 

[Canadienna]

To help understand 12.5%,

Flip a coin three times, if you guess all three correctly, you win Laf.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

10% chance we beat Pittsburgh
90% chance season will resume
12.5% chance in the lottery
-2.5% chance my math is slightly incorrect
= 110% chance we draft Laf

 

[ThaDevilGirl]

10% chance we beat Pittsburgh
90% chance season will resume
12.5% chance in the lottery
-2.5% chance my math is slightly incorrect
= 110% chance we draft Laf

And a 100% reason to remember the name

 

[ahmedou]

And a 100% reason to remember the name

10% luck
20% skill
15% concentrated power of will
5% pleasure
50% pain

 

[Omar]

I was asking the question wrong. The question really is: What are the odds that a playoff will take place, we lose to Pittsburgh and then win Phase II of the lottery?



What is the formula for dependent probability?

If they are dependent, then P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B|A) which is the probability of A times the probability of "B happening if A has occurred," which is different than the "Probability of B if A has not occurred."

***

A-NHL playoffs will happen (let's say 25%)
B-Montreal loses to Pittsburgh (let's say 65%)

P(25%)*P(65%/25%) = 25%/2.6=‭‭9.62%

THEN

A-Playoffs happen and Montreal loses to Pittsburgh: 9.62%
B-We win Phase II of the lottery (12.5%)

P(9.62%)*P(12.5%/9.62%) = 9.62%/1.3=‭‭%7.4

***

If you change the odds:

A-NHL playoffs will happen (let's say 50%)
B-Montreal loses to Pittsburgh (let's say 60%)

P(50%)*P(60%/50%) = 50%/1.2=‭‭41.7%

THEN

A-Playoffs happen and Montreal loses to Pittsburgh: 41.7% chance of both of those things occurring
B-We win Phase II of the lottery (12.5%)

P(41.7%)*P(12.5%/41.7%) = 41.7%/0.30=‭‭12.51% (wut?)



***


If the playoffs don't take place: 12.5%

***

So, our odds are the same?

Your initial premise is incorrect because we can still get Laf if there are no playoffs.

 

[BaseballCoach]

If the playoffs are cancelled, our odds improve dramatically, we simply have a 12.5% chance of drafting Lafreniere.

nm, it seems the NHL brass are a bunch of idiots.

 

[abo9]

I think it's a fair assumption that Montreal's chances of beating the Pens is equal or under 50%. So that gives a upper limit to the probability of drafting 1st OA

The only true answer though is that our probability of drafting Lafreniere is less than 12.5%

 

[peate]

To help understand 12.5%,

Flip a coin three times, if you guess all three correctly, you win Laf.

Flip a coin once or a hundred times, the odds are always 50%.

 

[jaffy27]

Flip a coin once or a hundred times, the odds are always 50%.

Not when there’s 7 other teams competing with ya

 

[HuGo Sham]

10% luck
20% skill
15% concentrated power of will
5% pleasure
50% pain

HERE COMES THE BOOM

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Flip a coin once or a hundred times, the odds are always 50%.

Actually, from what I remember, 100 flips will rarely fall 50/50.

Think it was in James Gleick's Chaos, but I haven't picked-up in years so i'm not 100% sure.

But yeah in essence it's 50/50 in predictability, but it's so unpredictable that it's rarely 50/50 in fact.

 

[Canadienna]

Flip a coin once or a hundred times, the odds are always 50%.

Consecutive. Three consecutive 50% guesses is 12.5%.

 

[barbu]

Stop with the numbers. I've read one of the Bergevin thread and found out that our chances are excellent.

 

[Sterling Archer]

12.5%

 

[bobholly39]

50% odds.

We either get Laf or we dont. So its 1 in 2 chances

Personally i think those are great odds

 

[nhlfan9191]

We have to see how the playins play out. It’s impossible to know right now. Anything can happen on one of these not to sound like that fraud Bergevin. If we lose, we know the odds.

 

[nhlfan9191]

50% odds.

We either get Laf or we dont. So its 1 in 2 chances

Personally i think those are great odds

Nothing about this post holds any truth at all. It is complete delusion.

 

[bobholly39]

Nothing about this post holds any truth at all. It is complete delusion.

You're just being negative. You should employ more of a 'glass half full mentality'.

We also have a 50% shot at the Stanley Cup. We either win - or we don't.

So 50% shot at Lafreniere + 50% shot at the Cup = 100% certainty we end up with at least one or the other.