Post-Game Talk: Welcome back Jimmy!

[Bench]

It's not just the puck moving, its how much Detroit's defense and centers spend below the dots when Howard is in net. It helps limit high percentage chances and rebounds, but it also makes breakouts harder because it gives the other team more time to regroup in the neutral zone.

Are you able to demonstrate this at all? Because honestly, I don't see it. I've watched the Wings play with Howard and other goalies for a long time now, and it's not like "Oh, this is a HOWARD GAME. Look at that strategy shift!"

People said the exact same thing when Monster was here, getting insanely high goal support. It's all random variation. The kind of thing that could easily be chalked up as statistically insignificant, if you're into actual stats. The Wings offense is not great, so things tend to ebb and flow because they don't have any elite players. Looking to the goalie to explain the offense... I dunno, man. It's a pretty big reach.

 

[aar000n]

Are you able to demonstrate this at all? Because honestly, I don't see it. I've watched the Wings play with Howard and other goalies for a long time now, and it's not like "Oh, this is a HOWARD GAME. Look at that strategy shift!"

People said the exact same thing when Monster was here, getting insanely high goal support. It's all random variation. The kind of thing that could easily be chalked up as statistically insignificant, if you're into actual stats. The Wings offense is not great, so things tend to ebb and flow because they don't have any elite players. Looking to the goalie to explain the offense... I dunno, man. It's a pretty big reach.

they play different with Howard in net because he has always struggled with rebounds.

 

[BinCookin]

they play different with Howard in net because he has always struggled with rebounds.

What's more likely?

1) They actually employ 1 "game winning" strategy with varying levels of success from night to night, and the goalie is a relative non-factor on scoring....

OR

2) The coaches have designed 2 different systems to play by. One with a good goalie in net, and one with a bad goalie in net?

If you think 2.... I can't help you: See Occams Razor.

 

[Pavels Dog]

What's more likely?

1) They actually employ 1 "game winning" strategy with varying levels of success from night to night, and the goalie is a relative non-factor on scoring....

OR

2) The coaches have designed 2 different systems to play by. One with a good goalie in net, and one with a bad goalie in net?

If you think 2.... I can't help you: See Occams Razor.

Just picture Jeff Blashill stepping into the room before gametime.

"Hey guys, we're going to play Jimmy in net tonight so we're switching to the collapse-defense strategy because of how Jimmy sucks with rebounds. Get'r done boys!"

 

[Shaman464]

Are you able to demonstrate this at all? Because honestly, I don't see it. I've watched the Wings play with Howard and other goalies for a long time now, and it's not like "Oh, this is a HOWARD GAME. Look at that strategy shift!"

People said the exact same thing when Monster was here, getting insanely high goal support. It's all random variation. The kind of thing that could easily be chalked up as statistically insignificant, if you're into actual stats. The Wings offense is not great, so things tend to ebb and flow because they don't have any elite players. Looking to the goalie to explain the offense... I dunno, man. It's a pretty big reach.

When you see large variation between sets with large sample size, the chances of it being random drop, and the chances of them being explained by an outside factor increase. As for 'look this is a howard game'. Literally everyone says that 'Oh look the team isn't scoring, it's a howard game'. Offense doesn't just magically disappear. The question is why does it happen? Why is there such a huge variance between games Howard starts and Mrazek starts?

 

[ap3x]

If it's for the reason u mention, I'm asking myself, "Why doesn't Blash adjust that strategy due to the major outcomes?"

 

[Mijatovic]

The question is why does it happen? Why is there such a huge variance between games Howard starts and Mrazek starts?

The team has to try harder offensively and get desperate because Mrazek is giving up more goals. With Howard, we can just turtle our way through to get the loser point.

 

[Bench]

When you see large variation between sets with large sample size, the chances of it being random drop, and the chances of them being explained by an outside factor increase. As for 'look this is a howard game'. Literally everyone says that 'Oh look the team isn't scoring, it's a howard game'. Offense doesn't just magically disappear. The question is why does it happen? Why is there such a huge variance between games Howard starts and Mrazek starts?

It's really not that big of a sample size. Unless you have stats about this you're not sharing, all I'm seeing is anecdotal evidence and insistence.

So let's take a quick look at the goals from last year. Howard played 37 games and had 92 goals scored against him. Mrazek played 54 games and allowed 115 goals.

Howard GAA 2.80. Mrazek GAA 2.33.

The team scored 96 goals with Howard in net. Or 2.59 goals per game.
The team scored 113 goals with Mrazek in net. Or 2.09 goals per game.

The Red Wings average goals per game was 2.55. So the Wings scored less goals per game with Mrazek in net than with Howard. Of course, Howard allowed more goals and had a much lower SV%. But if we're only talking goal scoring, last year shows us the complete opposite of what you're arguing. The team scored better with Howard.

The team has to try harder offensively and get desperate because Mrazek is giving up more goals. With Howard, we can just turtle our way through to get the loser point.

So it was the complete opposite scenario last season. It's almost like if a goalie is playing bad, the team is forced to score more goals (or at least try) in losing games. Maybe it doesn't have anything to do with puckhandling or systems, because the common factor here is goalies with a bad SV% requiring more goal support to get wins.

 

[Ezekial]

Yep I remember last season complaining about Mrazek never getting goal support. How many 1-0 and 2-1 wins did the wings have during Mrazek's dominant streak? It was like 75% of the games.

 

[Shaman464]

It's really not that big of a sample size. Unless you have stats about this you're not sharing, all I'm seeing is anecdotal evidence and insistence.

So let's take a quick look at the goals from last year. Howard played 37 games and had 92 goals scored against him. Mrazek played 54 games and allowed 115 goals.

Howard GAA 2.80. Mrazek GAA 2.33.

The team scored 96 goals with Howard in net. Or 2.59 goals per game.
The team scored 113 goals with Mrazek in net. Or 2.09 goals per game.

The Red Wings average goals per game was 2.55. So the Wings scored less goals per game with Mrazek in net than with Howard. Of course, Howard allowed more goals and had a much lower SV%. But if we're only talking goal scoring, last year shows us the complete opposite of what you're arguing. The team scored better with Howard.



So it was the complete opposite scenario last season. It's almost like if a goalie is playing bad, the team is forced to score more goals (or at least try) in losing games. Maybe it doesn't have anything to do with puckhandling or systems, because the common factor here is goalies with a bad SV% requiring more goal support to get wins.

You literally just made a chicken or egg argument. Does the team focus more on playing more offensively because the goalie is giving up more goals, or are more goals being given up because the team is focusing on offense?

If the team is playing, without direction, differently in front of Mrazek, that really shows that the coaching staff is impotent. Which in my mind is a much worse possibility than it has drawn up game plans based on who is starting in net.

 

[Ezekial]

They don't gameplan around what goalie is starting in our net. It's not feasible.

You're taking Pete's known ability of being better at playing the puck than Howard and assuming that has something to do with it.

 

[Bench]

You literally just made a chicken or egg argument. Does the team focus more on playing more offensively because the goalie is giving up more goals, or are more goals being given up because the team is focusing on offense?

If the team is playing, without direction, differently in front of Mrazek, that really shows that the coaching staff is impotent. Which in my mind is a much worse possibility than it has drawn up game plans based on who is starting in net.

Look at you trying to slide away from being in a corner. Sorry the stats didn't support your claims, but you've got to yield to the evidence. Look, your big statement was that Mrazek could move the puck better or something about rebounds... and that allowed the team to score more goals. Yet last year we have an entire season of data to show Howard, not Mrazek, created more goals.

It's not chicken or egg. It's Howard or Mrazek. My stance is it doesn't matter what goalie is in, this team struggle to keep goals out and to score them.

Your stance was Mrazek and Howard have different gameplans drawn up by the team. If so, they must have flipped that gameplan for the goalies going into this year. How strange.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

You literally just made a chicken or egg argument. Does the team focus more on playing more offensively because the goalie is giving up more goals, or are more goals being given up because the team is focusing on offense?

If the team is playing, without direction, differently in front of Mrazek, that really shows that the coaching staff is impotent. Which in my mind is a much worse possibility than it has drawn up game plans based on who is starting in net.

You didn't even address his post in context of your original point. Seriously?

Did the two teams have a separate game plan last season? Why?

 

[Shaman464]

Look at you trying to slide away from being in a corner. Sorry the stats didn't support your claims, but you've got to yield to the evidence. Look, your big statement was that Mrazek could move the puck better or something about rebounds... and that allowed the team to score more goals. Yet last year we have an entire season of data to show Howard, not Mrazek, created more goals.

It's not chicken or egg. It's Howard or Mrazek. My stance is it doesn't matter what goalie is in, this team struggle to keep goals out and to score them.

Your stance was Mrazek and Howard have different gameplans drawn up by the team. If so, they must have flipped that gameplan for the goalies going into this year. How strange.

What stats? The real stats are the Wings are scoring double the goals for Mrazek compared to Howard with nearly 30 games played between them. This corresponds to around 1.5 goals/game. This is much different than 0.50 goals per game which could be accounted for by normal variance. So, please, explain how Detroit can go from 3.2 goals per game for Mrazek down to around 1.5 for Howard. That is an amazing goal and a half difference. And the goalies have been splitting time pretty evenly. Please tell me with a high N (16 and 12 respectively), can you account for it? I don't particularly want to go through the stats, but the eyeball test says that 1.5 goals per game difference is more than likely a statistically significant difference.

So, want to bring stats that actually matter? Because 0.5 goals per game difference is NOT the same thing as 1.5 goals per game difference.

 

[Claypool]

What stats? The real stats are the Wings are scoring double the goals for Mrazek compared to Howard with nearly 30 games played between them.

"Correlation does not imply causation"

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Do you guys think Howard is starting tomorrow? I need a quick goaltender pickup for my fantasy team

 

[Reddwit]

Do you guys think Howard is starting tomorrow? I need a quick goaltender pickup for my fantasy team

I'd assume so. Detroit was riding Howard before the injury because of his solid play, so I can't see why they'd stop now.

 

[Ezekial]

Do you guys think Howard is starting tomorrow? I need a quick goaltender pickup for my fantasy team

I'd be extremely surprised if he doesn't.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

I'd assume so. Detroit was riding Howard before the injury because of his solid play, so I can't see why they'd stop now.

I'd be extremely surprised if he doesn't.

Thanks guys!
Here's hoping for a win!

 

[Henkka]

What stats? The real stats are the Wings are scoring double the goals for Mrazek compared to Howard with nearly 30 games played between them. This corresponds to around 1.5 goals/game. This is much different than 0.50 goals per game which could be accounted for by normal variance. So, please, explain how Detroit can go from 3.2 goals per game for Mrazek down to around 1.5 for Howard. That is an amazing goal and a half difference. And the goalies have been splitting time pretty evenly. Please tell me with a high N (16 and 12 respectively), can you account for it? I don't particularly want to go through the stats, but the eyeball test says that 1.5 goals per game difference is more than likely a statistically significant difference.

So, want to bring stats that actually matter? Because 0.5 goals per game difference is NOT the same thing as 1.5 goals per game difference.

Mrazek gives up an easy goal first and then we have to play more offence.

It's that simple. Goaltender who can protect the lead, will put us in a more low-scoring mode.

This happens in every team. Bad goaltending forces you to score more.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Come on guys, are we really spending time arguing with people who claim that our goals for per game is dependent on our goalie?

Man I would just love to see the press ask about it in a post game interview. "Blashill, can you tell us about how Jimmy is working on his puckhandling in practice to help get the team out of this goal drought?"

 

[jkutswings]

Just as "winning cures everything", you start to see some strange arguments when a team continues to have problems.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

"Correlation does not imply causation"

Unfortunately there are not nearly enough people on hfboards who know what that means.

 

[waltdetroit]

Offense attacks, defense responds. On a basic level, the opposing team's strategy and style is geared toward a goalie's tendencies. The defense react to what the opposing offense is trying to do. Hence the defense looks different when different goalies play.