Pre-Game Talk: Week to Sink or Swim (@DAL, DET, @MIN, @WPG)

[Colorado Avalanche]

There are 30 games left! Looking at a 2-3 game window is just meaningless. Everyone said Winnipeg was out of reach and then they lose 4 in a row. Someone could Toronto it, who knows? I know the time is now, they can't leave points on the table but its points rate, not each individual game. They'll lose tomorrow and everyone will jump off a cliff, this is where it stems from. Yeah it would be huge to beat Dallas but it would be huge to beat Minnesota and Winnipeg and....

No it's not when we are facing Minnesota, Winnipeg AND Dallas. Basically our rivals at the moment. We really need to come out of this with a good point total or we are pretty much finished for the season. We are so close to playoff-spot, BUT also to trade deadline. I hope we either fall or dominate, so we can either be sellers or buyers at trade deadline, not anything between, that would suck.

Next 4 games will be huge.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Of course they are important but so are the next 4 and so on. People have been saying make or break for the last 3 months. Having our direction mapped out would be nice but I expect pretty much the same to continue.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Of course they are important but so are the next 4 and so on. People have been saying make or break for the last 3 months. Having our direction mapped out would be nice but I expect pretty much the same to continue.

True, but 3 of these next 4 games are against our direct competition for the last playoff spot, and unfortunately, they all have the tiebreaker on us in ROW's. These next stretch of games really are the most important part, because if they slip up, it's going to be near impossible to overcome and they could get leapfrogged by Minnesota.

We're 7 points out of a playoff spot right now because of our ROW issues. Since the 2005-06 season, only TWO teams have made up a 7 point or more deficit to make the playoffs after February 1st. Last team to do it was in 2011. It's going to be real tough to make up that ground now.

 

[henchman21]

We're 7 points out of a playoff spot right now because of our ROW issues. Since the 2005-06 season, only TWO teams have made up a 7 point or more deficit to make the playoffs after February 1st. Last team to do it was in 2011. It's going to be real tough to make up that ground now.

5 points, not 7. Vancouver has 57 points, but a big advantage in ROW.

It is still too early to say a few games make or break the season. The Avs have to play at a ~1.3 points per game pace and they will be fine.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

5 points, not 7. Vancouver has 57 points, but a big advantage in ROW.

Sorry, forgot about them. They've still got a few games in hand on us as well.

 

[henchman21]

Sorry, forgot about them. They've still got a few games in hand on us as well.

Yep, but not playing real well right now. They could easily grab only 1 point out of those 2 games.

Before the break almost all the teams had 2-3 games in hand and the Avs were still back 3 points from tying. Now they are 4 points back from tying and many teams have played the same amount of games or are within 1 game either way. Vancouver has the most games in hand with 2 and Winnipeg has played 2 more games than the Avs.

Slow and steady wins the race here.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I still believe Calgary and Vancouver are the two hopefulls. I really believe Winnipeg are as good as their record. As for Hutchinson falling back to earth, earth may not be as far down as people think. He's great goaltender and I can see him being somewhere between .920 and .927 or .928 for a long time.

 

[henchman21]

I still believe Calgary and Vancouver are the two hopefulls. I really believe Winnipeg are as good as their record. As for Hutchinson falling back to earth, earth may not be as far down as people think. He's great goaltender and I can see him being somewhere between .920 and .927 or .928 for a long time.

He has been terrible lately. Winnipeg will live and die by their goaltending, and I wouldn't bet big on that.

 

[InjuredChoker]

He has been terrible lately. Winnipeg will live and die by their goaltending, and I wouldn't bet big on that.

we are a team that live and die by our goaltending. they have given up less goals in 2 more games with clearly worse goaltending.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I completely understand it's now or never in terms of getting the points to get it done. But at this point one individual game shouldn't be the focus. They play Dallas 3x this month, how they do in those collectively is what matters.

What happens if they lose this one, are people going to throw in the towel? I'm sure many will say that and will be right back here saying the Minnesota game is the biggest of the year.

 

[henchman21]

we are a team that live and die by our goaltending. they have given up less goals in 2 more games with clearly worse goaltending.

Varly >>>>>>> Hutchinson >>>> Pavelec

They have given up 5 goals in each of their past 4 games. 3 of those have been empty netters, so in reality 4+ in those games. Since the start of the new year they are giving up 3.14 goals per game (that isn't counting the shootout goals). The Avs have given up 2.08 goals per game since the start of the new year.
Winnipeg's goalies were hot to start, but are falling off. Given who they have in goal, I think that continues.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Varly >>>>>>> Hutchinson >>>> Pavelec

They have given up 5 goals in each of their past 4 games. 3 of those have been empty netters. Since the start of the new year they are giving up 3.14 goals per game (that isn't counting the obvious shootout goals). The Avs have given up 2.08 goals per game since the start of the new year.
Winnipeg's goalies were hot to start, but are falling off. Given who they have in goal, I think that continues.

i don't get it. yes we have better goalies. we also have to rely more on them to play like that if we want to win. when we had average G, we were below 0.500. with top 3 G, we have been around around 0.550 or something like that. if we get poor goaltending we are toast, if they get poor goaltending they can still tread the water.

 

[henchman21]

i don't get it. yes we have better goalies. we also have to rely more on them to play like that if we want to win. when we had average G, we were below 0.500. with top 3 G, we have been around around 0.550 or something like that. if we get poor goaltending we are toast, if they get poor goaltending they can still tread the water.

They are not doing well when their goaltending isn't playing well. Since the start of the new year, the only games they have won when giving up 3 goals have been in shootouts (twice). It happened once in December. It only happened once in the first two months of the season. So overall it has happened only 4 times this year (I believe the Avs have 7 or 8 of those types this season). The problem with that is, they have two goalies who are unproven or just not good and have lately been averaging over 3 goals given up per game.

Both teams rely heavily on goaltending, but if you were to bet on a goalie to rely on between the 3, you easily choose Varly. And the Avs have overcame giving up 3 goals way more often than Winnipeg has.

 

[InjuredChoker]

They are not doing well when their goaltending isn't playing well. Since the start of the new year, the only games they have won when giving up 3 goals have been in shootouts (twice). It happened once in December. It only happened once in the first two months of the season. So overall it has happened only 4 times this year (I believe the Avs have 7 or 8 of those types this season). The problem with that is, they have two goalies who are unproven or just not good and have lately been averaging over 3 goals given up per game.

Both teams rely heavily on goaltending, but if you were to bet on a goalie to rely on between the 3, you easily choose Varly. And the Avs have overcame giving up 3 goals way more often than Winnipeg has.

we also have less games where they give up 3 or more goals.

of course when bets varly between them but varly has to stop more pucks for avs to win more. way more. they don't have to rely on their goalies as much as jets play better defense.

don't pens rely on malkin and geno more than (insert forwards from other teams here) because they are better than almost all players in the league?

 

[henchman21]

we also have less games where they give up 3 or more goals.

of course when bets varly between them but varly has to stop more pucks for avs to win more. way more.

don't pens rely on malkin and geno more than (insert forwards from other teams here) because they are better than almost all players in the league?

What I am saying is way more often than not they lose giving up 3 goals AND they are averaging giving up over 3 goals per game lately (even going back to the beginning of December they are giving up almost 3 goals per game... something like 2.93). That means they have an uphill battle to continue to win games as their goaltending is falling back to earth.

They are every bit as dependent on goaltending as the Avs are, getting worse production out of their goalies lately, and have worse goaltenders. It isn't a promising trend for them.

 

[linusandvarlamov]

I'm really excited for tonights game against Dallas. Hoping that our effort tonight will be as glorious as the one in Colorado against Nashville. If this week goes well I'm liking our chances of getting into the playoffs.

 

[Foppa2118]

we also have less games where they give up 3 or more goals.

of course when bets varly between them but varly has to stop more pucks for avs to win more. way more. they don't have to rely on their goalies as much as jets play better defense.

don't pens rely on malkin and geno more than (insert forwards from other teams here) because they are better than almost all players in the league?

The Jets aren't really reliant on their goaltending for the same reasons the Avs are though. It's more so their playing style, and the defensive play of their forwards. Their defense is so much better than the Avs it's crazy. Ensrom, Bogo, and Trouba are all as good and possibly better defensively than EJ, and their group of 6 D was even playing better than the Avs when they were missing all three of those guys.

Buff stepped in and was a force everywhere on the ice in all situations. The young Chiarot has played very well as Buff's partner, and they've been mutually beneficial for each other. Mark Stuart's pretty similar to our Brad Stuart. I've even been pretty impressed with Harrison whom they got on the cheap. He's played very sound hockey for them, and moves fairly well too. Now their top 3 is back, and they're even better.

The Jets problem is they play an aggressive physical style. This can take them out of position sometimes and lead to odd man rushes, but more importantly it leads to penalties. They take the 2nd most penalties in the league, and their PK is only middle of the road in 16th. This has caused them to give up the 3rd most PP goals in the league, and the most in the West.

5 on 5 they've given up the 9th fewest (4th fewest in the West) number of goals.

They basically live and die by the double edged sword of their aggressive game. If they could improve their PK, they might among the best teams in the league.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

and who's the most important guy on the PK? The goalie...

 

[Foppa2118]

and who's the most important guy on the PK? The goalie...

I agree, he's very important there, but there's also a clear discrepancy between their 5 on 5 goals against and their PK goals against. Every team is heavily reliant on their goalie. That's how important the position is.

Winnipeg is a very good team outside of their goaltending. I think they're more reliant on being able to pick their spots a little smarter, than goaltending. That's the dividing line between them winning and losing. They just need to find a better balance for their aggressive play, because their PK's not that good and they're always killing penalties.

 

[Freudian]

Roy seems quite happy with the defense, which isn't that strange when they have gone 3-1-3 in the last seven games and not allowed that many goals.

Roy:

"It was tough to change our pairings, especially with the way Barrie and Guenin are playing together so well. And the same thing with Stuart and Holden, they play so well together.

I think we have a lot of confidence in Zach, and Jan has so much experience in the league. I think it was just a good fit. We wanted to give a shot at it, at least before saying it's not going to work. They played so well in those two games ... they were really, really solid and I think they deserve to continue like that."

 

[Avs71]

The Jets aren't really reliant on their goaltending for the same reasons the Avs are though. It's more so their playing style, and the defensive play of their forwards. Their defense is so much better than the Avs it's crazy. Ensrom, Bogo, and Trouba are all as good and possibly better defensively than EJ, and their group of 6 D was even playing better than the Avs when they were missing all three of those guys.

Completely disagree here. Trouba is a very good bet to be, but no way on the other two, and Trouba still makes a fair amount of mistakes. However, as a committee, yes their defencemen are much better than the Avs. Injury prone though. Look at the man games lost of Trouba, Bogosian, Byfuglien, and Enstrom the last few seasons.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Some interesting quotes in there from Hejda about how EJ has been ailing for a while.

 

[Foppa2118]

Completely disagree here. Trouba is a very good bet to be, but no way on the other two, and Trouba still makes a fair amount of mistakes. However, as a committee, yes their defencemen are much better than the Avs. Injury prone though. Look at the man games lost of Trouba, Bogosian, Byfuglien, and Enstrom the last few seasons.

I think Enstrom's very under rated defensively. He's the one I would definitely put up against EJ, and that's not a knock on EJ. Bogo and Trouba I don't know how I would rank them if I had to pin it down, but they are both quite good defensively. I think they're at least very close, but a matter of opinion could sway it one way or another. I guess that's my main point.

EJ gets into trouble every now an then himself, lets not forget that. Especially when he decides to circle back with the puck and then lose it, which leads to more sustained pressure. That was happening a bit more than one would like before he got injured. Not a huge problem, but his defensive play isn't without the occasional small mistake.

Definitely agree on the injury prone issue though. The biggest problem being Bogo. He's seemingly always a big risk for an injury.

 

[Foppa2118]

Roy seems quite happy with the defense, which isn't that strange when they have gone 3-1-3 in the last seven games and not allowed that many goals.

Roy:

"It was tough to change our pairings, especially with the way Barrie and Guenin are playing together so well. And the same thing with Stuart and Holden, they play so well together.

I think we have a lot of confidence in Zach, and Jan has so much experience in the league. I think it was just a good fit. We wanted to give a shot at it, at least before saying it's not going to work. They played so well in those two games ... they were really, really solid and I think they deserve to continue like that."

This comment is so funny because it shows how Roy just talks optimistically and pumps the tires of the guys he knows he has to go with. Which is fine, but he clearly doesn't have a ton of confidence in him for some reason because he only plays him when he has to. When the next option is an AHL callup. He's more comfortable with Guenin and Holden in the lineup even when they're in the midst of brutal stretches of hockey.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

This comment is so funny because it shows how Roy just talks optimistically and pumps the tires of the guys he knows he has to go with. Which is fine, but he clearly doesn't have a ton of confidence in him for some reason because he only plays him when he has to. When the next option is an AHL callup. He's more comfortable with Guenin and Holden in the lineup even when they're in the midst of brutal stretches of hockey.

Roy pimps everyone in the media. Even if he doesn't have a ton of confidence in them inside, he's still going to say nice things to the media because anything otherwise isn't his style.

Guenin plays 16 minutes a game, far less than anyone else on the defense, even Redmond when he plays. I don't think the Avs have a lot of confidence in Guenin, he just is decent on the PK (which hasn't been bad this year) and that's his only saving grace. His even strength TOI is very much limited.