NFL GDT: Week 15

[Dr Salt]

The Steelers looked God awful holy

 

[Terry Yake]

2020 steelers are the definition of a pretender

 

[PanthersPens62]

Cleveland closes in on the division title and the Bengals may have just accidently made the Dolphins road to the playoffs possible with the Bills now having the inside track on the two seed.

Pittsburgh isn't winning a playoff game.

Yup, all of a sudden if the Colts beat the Steelers & The Bills beat the Pats I believe that would lock the Bills into the #2 seed & I could easily see Buffalo resting key starters in week 17. I read somewhere just now the Dolphins would be 7 point favorites if that happened.

Of course Miami must make sure they take care of business Saturday night.

 

[PanthersPens62]

So, if yinz have any questions about why Tomlin is so disliked by Stiller fans, then this game is exhibit A. Add Ryan Finley to the list of pathetic QB's & teams with pathetic records Tomlin has lost to over the years. And I don't want to hear about the injuries,,,cry me a river. The Dolphins had both starting WR's, their starting RB, starting TE & their best OL out and somehow still managed to beat The Belly by 10 points. And its because they have a phenomenal coach that they were able to do that.

But hey, the standard remains the standard......they will not live in their fears.....and they will unleash hell on the Colts, eh?

 

[BKIslandersFan]

So, if yinz have any questions about why Tomlin is so disliked by Stiller fans, then this game is exhibit A

No it isn't.

 

[TheAngryHank]

Yup, all of a sudden if the Colts beat the Steelers & The Bills beat the Pats I believe that would lock the Bills into the #2 seed & I could easily see Buffalo resting key starters in week 17. I read somewhere just now the Dolphins would be 7 point favorites if that happened.

Of course Miami must make sure they take care of business Saturday night.

Cleveland must beat the Jets also this sunday ,then bills move to #2

 

[PanthersPens62]

Cleveland must beat the Jets also this sunday ,then bills move to #2

Oh yeah I did leave that one out.....I should not assume this after what the Jets did to the Rams. And I'm also not sure how the AFC South winner affects this either.

 

[c9777666]

So, if yinz have any questions about why Tomlin is so disliked by Stiller fans, then this game is exhibit A. Add Ryan Finley to the list of pathetic QB's & teams with pathetic records Tomlin has lost to over the years. And I don't want to hear about the injuries,,,cry me a river. The Dolphins had both starting WR's, their starting RB, starting TE & their best OL out and somehow still managed to beat The Belly by 10 points. And its because they have a phenomenal coach that they were able to do that.

But hey, the standard remains the standard......they will not live in their fears.....and they will unleash hell on the Colts, eh?

If you want to bet on a dome team playing on the road in cold weather let alone one led by the worst big game QB since Romo, be my guest.

 

[The Note]

I thought the Steelers being 11-0 was a bit of a mirage. Didn’t think the bottom would fall out this badly though.

 

[John Price]

So, let's consider the situation where Pittsburgh scores another TD - it's highly unlikely kicking/going for it affects any other game situation. We'll use an NFL average of 45% for 2 point conversion (maybe a little low, but we'll use it) and 95% for the single point.

If you go for 2 when you score the first TD and get it, you kick the XP when you score the 2nd TD. If you go for 2 when you score the first TD and don't get it, obviously you have to go for 2 again.

So the expected results of this scenario:
WINS:
Success the first time - success on the XP after the 2nd TD (1 point win): 45% * 95% = 42.75% chance of winning

TIES:
Success the first time - misses the XP after the 2nd TD: 45% * 5% = 2.25%
Fails the first time - makes the 2nd 2 pt conversion: 55% * 45% = 24.75%
Total of 27%

LOSS
Fails both 2 point conversions: 55% * 55% = 30.25%

So you have a 42.75% chance of winning, a 30.25% of losing, and a 27% of going to overtime in the case where you go for two after the first TD.

Now compare to traditional.

WINS:
None. Best you can do is win in overtime.

TIES:
Make both extra points: 95% * 95% = 90.25%
Miss the first extra point, make a two point conversion: 5% * 45% = 2.25%
Total of 92.5%

LOSS:
Miss the first extra point, miss the 2 point conversion: 5% * 55% = 2.75%
Make the first extra point, miss the 2nd extra point: 95% * 5% = 4.75%
Total of 7.5%

So usually you go to overtime (92.5% of the time), but 7.5% you lose anyway, and you cannot win in regulation.

The first of these scenarios is clearly superior.

Kick the xp

Hope defense stops em

Score another td and xp to tie

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Kick the xp

Hope defense stops em

Score another td and xp to tie

Yes, we know you don't understand numbers.

 

[Islay1989]

The worst 11-0 team in league history.

 

[member 157595]

Enjoy your meaningless upset Bengals

remember this when you’re picking outside the top 3

Nobody's enjoying shit.

We sure can't beat the goddamn Steelers in a playoff game BUT MAN OH MAN CAN WE BEAT THEM WITH OUR BACKUP QB IN A GAME THAT DOESN'T MATTER EXCEPT TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGE OUR DRAFT POSITION. Yay!

f*** the Steelers. f*** them, f*** them, f*** them until they're dead. I said in another post that I didn't hate them enough to wish Adam Gase on them, I now wish Adam Gase AND Rich Kotite on them.

They have their QB. Dropping a couple of spots means nothing.

It does matter if you want to build around that QB and not break him.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Nobody's enjoying shit.

We sure can't beat the goddamn Steelers in a playoff game BUT MAN OH MAN CAN WE BEAT THEM WITH OUR BACKUP QB IN A GAME THAT DOESN'T MATTER EXCEPT TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGE OUR DRAFT POSITION. Yay!

f*** the Steelers. f*** them, f*** them, f*** them until they're dead. I said in another post that I didn't hate them enough to wish Adam Gase on them, I now wish Adam Gase AND Rich Kotite on them.

Have I been communicating with Vontaze Burfict all this time? I think you are just angry that the Stillers purposely tanked this game to make sure the Bungles did not get Sewell

It does matter if you want to build around that QB and not break him.

 

[PanthersPens62]

Ok, I have no idea how I did that, but my response was this part:

Have I been communicating with Vontaze Burfict all this time? I think you are just angry that the Stillers purposely tanked this game to make sure the Bungles did not get Sewell

P.S. Dear Bungles......please make sure you beat Houston too this week so my Dolphins can get an even higher draft pick. Gracias.

 

[Troy McClure]

It does matter if you want to build around that QB and not break him.

There are a lot of o line options in the draft.

 

[member 157595]

Ok, I have no idea how I did that, but my response was this part:

Have I been communicating with Vontaze Burfict all this time? I think you are just angry that the Stillers purposely tanked this game to make sure the Bungles did not get Sewell

P.S. Dear Bungles......please make sure you beat Houston too this week so my Dolphins can get an even higher draft pick. Gracias.

Sometimes this site is funky re: quoting, I believe that's happened to me before?

The Bengals are no real threat to the Steelers in the first place. The Steelers are a well-run, stable organization that has historically demanded excellence to the tune of countless playoff appearances, 8 Super Bowl appearances and 6 Lombardi Trophies. They always find ways to stay competitive.

Burrow's going to die unless he gets protected, and regardless of one's feelings about a division rival it's never nice for a young QB to have his career prematurely ended due to physical punishment brought upon by ineffective management. I want to see him flourish not just as a Bengals fan but as a football fan, the league is better with better quality QB's. Since the Bengals are not usually a go-to FA destination, their best chance of getting elite potential is through the draft. Wins late in the season without Burrow in tow do absolutely nothing for a fan of the team and are detrimental to the end goal.

I'm the kind of guy that gets anger out and then gets over it, and I'm going to be leaving this site in the very near future anyways so no one's going to have to worry about reading my posts regardless.

 

[member 157595]

There are a lot of o line options in the draft.

Fair point, but I've had enough of being the bridesmaid. Actually, we're not even the bridesmaid, we're the orange-striped stepchild that has been left back a few grades and eats his own boogers.

 

[c9777666]

The worst 11-0 team in league history.

The Falcons and Chargers are the best 4-10 teams in league history

 

[Troy McClure]

Fair point, but I've had enough of being the bridesmaid. Actually, we're not even the bridesmaid, we're the orange-striped stepchild that has been left back a few grades and eats his own boogers.

You're not a bridesmaid, and this isn't a time to be angry. This season was a wild success for the Bengals by about week three when it became clear Burrow was a good pick. You should be celebrating embarrassing the Steelers on national TV and celebrating knowing Burrow is the real deal. The arrow is only pointing up from here. When's the last time you could say that about the Bengals?

 

[member 157595]

You're not a bridesmaid, and this isn't a time to be angry. This season was a wild success for the Bengals by about week three when it became clear Burrow was a good pick. You should be celebrating embarrassing the Steelers on national TV and celebrating knowing Burrow is the real deal. The arrow is only pointing up from here. When's the last time you could say that about the Bengals?

I had a long response written out here, and then I realized I've been hijacking this thread so this will be my last post in it.

I'll leave it at the following: You're a really good poster and I see your side of this, but I strongly disagree.

 

[c9777666]

2020 steelers are the definition of a pretender

So are the 2020 Colts

 

[misterchainsaw]

I had a long response written out here, and then I realized I've been hijacking this thread so this will be my last post in it.

I'll leave it at the following: You're a really good poster and I see your side of this, but I strongly disagree.

Dude. seriously, this is a lot of angst for a game that didn't even change your draft position. Maybe at least wait until they win again to lose your shit?

 

[Islay1989]

The Falcons and Chargers are the best 4-10 teams in league history

That's like being the most sane person in the asylum.

 

[TheAngryHank]

I had a long response written out here, and then I realized I've been hijacking this thread so this will be my last post in it.

I'll leave it at the following: You're a really good poster and I see your side of this, but I strongly disagree.

If Burrow is the real deal you WILL be sitting where Buffalo is right now in 2 seasons..Chin up ,Right now I'd rather be in your shoes than a fan of a team who has to fork over 35M to Fat Ben next season with no plan on a replacement for him.Cincy smacked them around last night and should be doing so on the regular in the future.