Bama has a very good D and an inconsistent offense. LSU has an unbalanced offense and a good but not great D. I think Clemson might well be quite a bit better than both.
LSU is done if you ask me. I don't see Bama losing. So even if they won out that knocks them out.
Two spots seem clear and the SEC title game winner makes a third. If Ohio State lost to Iowa and both are undefeated I'm hard pressed to figure out if Iowa gets in. It could go either way. It could be boring and predictable or really interesting. If Clemson loses the ACC title game they would be out definitely. The Big 12 could have no undefeated teams. If that happens they likely wouldn't get one.
There's no way an undefeated Big 10 team who beat the (presumably undefeated, probably at worst 1-loss) defending champions is getting left out of the top 4 in favor of 2 different 1-loss teams.
I have to give Urban credit. He basically said he was wrong in making Cardale starter. The offense is based mostly on reads and he's not a read option QB. I guess I wonder what took him so long. This team probably would have looked like they were supposed to had Barrett been the guy. Cardale almost cost them tonight. He made enough plays in the 2nd half but the D was great and with 2 minutes to go it was still in doubt because of that. That pick 6 became gigantic. He engineered 21 points(well 14 before that last TD which was basically just about getting a first down or in position to try for a FG but busted coverage allowed him to score so I don't necessarily count it in the same weight because they weren't trying to score.) Insurance I suppose but kind of garbage tack on points. It did cement the game but with a first down they run the clock out anyway.
He's not a very smart player. Big arm but can't make good reads and doesn't have great instincts. Winning 3 games at the end last season against good teams fooled people into thinking he was an elite player, and believing he's an elite prospect. He's the next Jamarcus Russell at the NFL level.