Post-Game Talk: We only need five players, but we have more.

[ujju2]

After Leon's 4th goal Quinn yelled "and now he's got the Texas hat trick." I just looked up "Texas hat trick" on Urban Dictionary and I'm guessing that's not what Quinn meant.

I assume a Texas Hat Trick is 4 goals because "everything's bigger in Texas." I also assume I don't want to look it up on urban dictionary.

 

[JordanGalhanth]

I'd be lying if I said that same thought didn't cross my mind. I hope Spector, Van Diest and any other media members who stayed the night are okay and accounted for.

Spector and Van Diest both tweeted.

 

[MinisterOfSinister]

The hive mind on CP is convinced that the Oilers stand no chance in the playoffs because the calls dry up. They like their chances better.

Of course, they forget that 3 on 3 overtimes and shoot outs dont exist in the playoffs, but no one ever accused a flame fan of being smart.

 

[McDNicks17]

The hive mind on CP is convinced that the Oilers stand no chance in the playoffs because the calls dry up. They like their chances better.

Of course, they forget that 3 on 3 overtimes and shoot outs dont exist in the playoffs, but no one ever accused a flame fan of being smart.

Just posted this on the main board, but 75% of the team's in last year's playoffs actually saw more PP TOI/GP in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

The "refs put the whistles away" thing is just a myth now.

 

[AUAIOMRN]

They run into the same pitfalls that a lot of analytics does. Namely, they put far too much stock into the equality of the league; there is this idea that all shots are created equal.

My problem with these "homemade" analytics they put the cart before the horse. If your model says something as patently ridiculous as "Nichushkin is more valuable than Draistaitl" then guess what - it doesn't mean that Nichushkin is more valuable than Draistaitl, it means your methodology is wrong. But they don't come to that conclusion because they've already decided in advance that their methodology is correct.

 

[nally]

There's something about knowing no matter what I do in life I will never.... EVER celly this friggin hard

What movie was that ridiculous celly from again?

 

[These Are The Days]

what movie was this from again?

I wish I knew. Looks like a musical cuz dancing

Real talk for a second... I couldn't sleep for the life of me last night and at like 2 AM I was wondering the exact same thing.

 

[Sanchez]

After Leon's 4th goal Quinn yelled "and now he's got the Texas hat trick." I just looked up "Texas hat trick" on Urban Dictionary and I'm guessing that's not what Quinn meant.

HAHAHA I checked it out on Urban Dictionary and yeah Quinn has some explaining to do

 

[LTIR]

What movie was that ridiculous celly from again?

I wish I knew. Looks like a musical cuz dancing

Real talk for a second... I couldn't sleep for the life of me last night and at like 2 AM I was wondering the exact same thing.

That looks like a typical Bollywood movie scene. Anything can break out to a dance.

 

[Drivesaitl]

My problem with these "homemade" analytics they put the cart before the horse. If your model says something as patently ridiculous as "Nichushkin is more valuable than Draistaitl" then guess what - it doesn't mean that Nichushkin is more valuable than Draistaitl, it means your methodology is wrong. But they don't come to that conclusion because they've already decided in advance that their methodology is correct.

Because these really aren't statisticians, they are not educated and trained in methodology, in avoiding confirmation bias, in avoiding seeking geared results. Been involved in these convos for decades and that self learned stats guys generally don't get it. Because they don't have the background, principles of statistics and scientific analysis. They think they do.

Lastly going back to Horcoff and beyond a bigger play is at work. The Stats Nerd that wants to think that they are so ingenious to take a radical position that nobody else would make. That this island of one puts them in some sort of pantheon of uber intelligence. Instead of wearing a dunce hat. The degree to which analytics will go to trumpet very ordinary players and proclaim greatness signals avarice, a want for attention, for hits, and like stats trolling. They WANT their findings to be entirely counterintuitive. They want it to be revolutionary, they want the sense that if you are not involved in this divining that you don't know jack about whats really going on. Indeed this is the purview of sellers of false knowledge. That their brand of divination holds the true unexpected answers..

This never really gets beyond the contempt that Vic Ferrari exhibited having 4 accounts here at the same time all agreeing with each other on analytics. To further some false sense of consensus. The worst is that some of these deplorable posters have parlayed this nonsense into actual hockey jobs. Its mercenary, self serving, and the tactics used pretty unscrupulous.

 

[Emotive]

The hive mind on CP is convinced that the Oilers stand no chance in the playoffs because the calls dry up. They like their chances better.

Of course, they forget that 3 on 3 overtimes and shoot outs dont exist in the playoffs, but no one ever accused a flame fan of being smart.

They wouldn’t even be in a playoff position if it wasn’t for the shootout and loser points, but loser and CP go hand in hand so it’s quite fitting. Big talk from a fan base who’s best players disappear as soon as the post season starts.
What’s even more hilarious is we’ve won more playoff series than them in the last 5 years, and if you go back 15 years to when both teams went on their runs we have just as many series wins as them, despite not making the playoffs for 10 years. They can talk all the shit they want about us, the facts are that the flames are the champions of getting bounced in the first round, and this year will be no different if they make it. If I’m heading into a playoff series I’d take our current roster over there’s 10 times out of 10

 

[bellagiobob]

They run into the same pitfalls that a lot of analytics does. Namely, they put far too much stock into the equality of the league; there is this idea that all shots are created equal. That all shooters are created equal. That all shot setups are created equal. This kind of analysis fundamentally undervalues a player like Draisaitl who is just better than everyone else... better at shooting, better at passing, better at drawing pressure. Idk there is this weird Idea that like the only thing that matters is how much effect you have on possessing the puck and creating scoring chances. But... why do scoring chances matter? Scoring chances are only correlated in goals in a fantasy land where all shots are created equally... but they are clearly not. There isn't a single player in the league that would rather have Alexander Ovechkin waiting cross seam all alone on the powerplay to rip a one-tome from the left half wall than Victor Mete. But both of those chances are considered an identical chance with respect to Corsi, Scoring chance stats, fenwick, expected goals stats... It doesn't even matter if one pass is coming from McDavid and the other is coming from a guy like Cale Fleury who has zero assists after 41 games played.

Its asinine; they look at these stats that might make sense on median level players and apply them to a guy like Drai who is clearly on another level and it just makes them look so incredibly stupid. Its like... I dont care how many shot attempts the dude has, or what his expected goals for percentage is, because he's clearly an elite level talent that those stats have no value. It'd be like if you put McDavid in a Minor Midget game and he refused to shoot the puck until the other team got 10 shot attempts. His "analytics" would look awful, but like... so what? He would clearly be the best and most valuable player in his league and its not even close even though he probably only scores 4 goals a game.

Then these guys get all aroused at the prospect of being a contrarian and spit out some article on how based on the numbers a guy like Draisaitl is somehow not one of the best players in the league and they show there stats based on a simple bell curve, when it is clear as day that Draisaitl is so many standard deviations away from the mean in terms of raw ability that he wouldn't even be on the page of a standard bell curve graph.

And, as an additional plus, they undervalue special teams entirely, then straight up ignore the effect that game-planning for these elite level players has. No one is looking at Nichuskin on the white board before the game with his name circled while the coach goes over the plan for the teams 5 best possession players with the best goals for ratios to line up across from them all night every night. No coach is sitting down and telling his guys they need to pay the price to get at Kevin Hayes physically or the team will be in trouble. Just ludicrous when you sit down and see someone is even trying to compare players like that. Even you look at the Nucks and a guy like Elias Pettersson... he's not leading his team in scoring, and if you remove him entirely they have 5 guys within 20% of his production. To compare the star power a guy like that has on the game plan compared to a Draisaitl is absurd.

Dudes model has shown Alexander Ovechkin as a replacement level player on multiple occasions. Ridiculous.

In summary, they don’t actually watch the games.

 

[StupidGenius]

Jokes aside, he wasn't that bad when he was talking about hockey. I wasn't expecting him to start making comments about Drai's puck protection and RNH's vision, but he did.

I watched the highlights on DTMTS and they used the Sportsnet feed, including that call. That was a surprisingly professional breakdown on that goal indeed, and I was extremely impressed by it.

 

[nally]

That looks like a typical Bollywood movie scene. Anything can break out to a dance.

No I remember seeing that...maybe it was just a gif, but I thought it was part of something mainstream

 

[duul]

Because these really aren't statisticians, they are not educated and trained in methodology, in avoiding confirmation bias, in avoiding seeking geared results. Been involved in these convos for decades and that self learned stats guys generally don't get it. Because they don't have the background, principles of statistics and scientific analysis. They think they do.

Lastly going back to Horcoff and beyond a bigger play is at work. The Stats Nerd that wants to think that they are so ingenious to take a radical position that nobody else would make. That this island of one puts them in some sort of pantheon of uber intelligence. Instead of wearing a dunce hat. The degree to which analytics will go to trumpet very ordinary players and proclaim greatness signals avarice, a want for attention, for hits, and like stats trolling. They WANT their findings to be entirely counterintuitive. They want it to be revolutionary, they want the sense that if you are not involved in this divining that you don't know jack about whats really going on. Indeed this is the purview of sellers of false knowledge. That their brand of divination holds the true unexpected answers..

This never really gets beyond the contempt that Vic Ferrari exhibited having 4 accounts here at the same time all agreeing with each other on analytics. To further some false sense of consensus. The worst is that some of these deplorable posters have parlayed this nonsense into actual hockey jobs. Its mercenary, self serving, and the tactics used pretty unscrupulous.

Good post.

All I can add is that there are two more aspects that need consideration. One being that these numbers don't mean much without coupling them with a good hockey mind to determine what is a valuable statistic and what is not.

I will say that I personally know of multiple NHL teams seeking certain individuals to work with their analytics departments, who have specialized in certain fields of Philosophy, namely in logic. Computer Science graduates get a small amount of training in the field of logic, but I am of the opinion that if you brought someone like Wittgenstein into the current NHL landscape, he would revolutionize the way we think about the game more than EvolvingWild would. That is, if he had any interest in the sport.

 

[These Are The Days]

That looks like a typical Bollywood movie scene. Anything can break out to a dance.

I've never seen any kind of Bollywood movie but by the looks of it that dude just got done stopping Alexander The Great

 

[Drivesaitl]

They run into the same pitfalls that a lot of analytics does. Namely, they put far too much stock into the equality of the league; there is this idea that all shots are created equal. That all shooters are created equal. That all shot setups are created equal. This kind of analysis fundamentally undervalues a player like Draisaitl who is just better than everyone else... better at shooting, better at passing, better at drawing pressure. Idk there is this weird Idea that like the only thing that matters is how much effect you have on possessing the puck and creating scoring chances. But... why do scoring chances matter? Scoring chances are only correlated in goals in a fantasy land where all shots are created equally... but they are clearly not. There isn't a single player in the league that would rather have Alexander Ovechkin waiting cross seam all alone on the powerplay to rip a one-tome from the left half wall than Victor Mete. But both of those chances are considered an identical chance with respect to Corsi, Scoring chance stats, fenwick, expected goals stats... It doesn't even matter if one pass is coming from McDavid and the other is coming from a guy like Cale Fleury who has zero assists after 41 games played.

Its asinine; they look at these stats that might make sense on median level players and apply them to a guy like Drai who is clearly on another level and it just makes them look so incredibly stupid. Its like... I dont care how many shot attempts the dude has, or what his expected goals for percentage is, because he's clearly an elite level talent that those stats have no value. It'd be like if you put McDavid in a Minor Midget game and he refused to shoot the puck until the other team got 10 shot attempts. His "analytics" would look awful, but like... so what? He would clearly be the best and most valuable player in his league and its not even close even though he probably only scores 4 goals a game.

Then these guys get all aroused at the prospect of being a contrarian and spit out some article on how based on the numbers a guy like Draisaitl is somehow not one of the best players in the league and they show there stats based on a simple bell curve, when it is clear as day that Draisaitl is so many standard deviations away from the mean in terms of raw ability that he wouldn't even be on the page of a standard bell curve graph.

And, as an additional plus, they undervalue special teams entirely, then straight up ignore the effect that game-planning for these elite level players has. No one is looking at Nichuskin on the white board before the game with his name circled while the coach goes over the plan for the teams 5 best possession players with the best goals for ratios to line up across from them all night every night. No coach is sitting down and telling his guys they need to pay the price to get at Kevin Hayes physically or the team will be in trouble. Just ludicrous when you sit down and see someone is even trying to compare players like that. Even you look at the Nucks and a guy like Elias Pettersson... he's not leading his team in scoring, and if you remove him entirely they have 5 guys within 20% of his production. To compare the star power a guy like that has on the game plan compared to a Draisaitl is absurd.

Dudes model has shown Alexander Ovechkin as a replacement level player on multiple occasions. Ridiculous.

Unfortunately its more than this, and worse than this as I posted in the thread. Indeed the Analytics community has often been quite consumed in counterintuitive proclamation and gearing of odd revelation for the bold sake of it. When their formulaic drivel spits out some Horcoffs or Nicuchkins or Gherkins they don't dispel it, they go hard on it proclaiming how their soothseeing is revolutionary, that you don't understand what you're seeing on ice, that your eyes lie, that you should look at their crystal ball instead, when their ball is forecasting inanity.

Yet people are driven to these divinations and due to tactical false prophesy that a typical charlatan uses. The hyper counterintuitive use is INTENTIONAL. its purposeful. Its an attempt by that community or subsets within to gain viewers. If their results were intuitive, expected, conforming, they couldn't lay claim to holding specific knowledge that is altering and critical. People would look at it, yawn, and move on. But counterintuitive proclamation whether its false or of value gains more attention, and sustained attention. With enough smoke and mirrors the purveyors can even hook and sink viewers into thinking this information is revolutionary truth.

Newsflash. The analytics community is mostly involved in self promotion and getting hits. Truth isn't really the goal evidently, its getting notoriety, false or otherwise. The more ridiculous the proclamation, the more readers. The propaganda game has been going on for centuries. Its merely co-opted in many different ways.

 

[Del Preston]

Spector and Van Diest both tweeted.

At least 19 confirmed dead now. =\

 

[Drivesaitl]

Evolving Wild are now blocking and banning any submissions involving the name Draisaitl.

The purveyors of information refutting counter information while digging heads in sand

nuff said

But these trolls are actually now acting as if the feedback is unjust, as if its unwarranted, or unexpected.

Are these twins 15 and 16 and online in mommies basement somewhere bored of playing Fortnite?

 

[JordanGalhanth]

At least 19 confirmed dead now. =\

I've been all over Instagram and Facebook looking for check-ins from my friends in Nashville. Nothing from a few of them.

 

[PeakMcOil]

I assume a Texas Hat Trick is 4 goals because "everything's bigger in Texas." I also assume I don't want to look it up on urban dictionary.

Oh no you are definitely gonna want to look it up, just on a non work device.

 

[StupidGenius]

I assume a Texas Hat Trick is 4 goals because "everything's bigger in Texas." I also assume I don't want to look it up on urban dictionary.

Short version is that it's finishing yourself three times while watching three dudes engage in intercourse.

And combining how gorgeous three of those third period goals were with the fact that we watched Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl literally f*** Pekka Rinne last night, I'm not entirely convinced that Quinn didn't know exactly what he was saying.

 

[Del Preston]

I've been all over Instagram and Facebook looking for check-ins from my friends in Nashville. Nothing from a few of them.

Damn. Hoping for the best.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Oh no you are definitely gonna want to look it up, just on a non work device.

Not that I want to defend Kevin Quinn on anything but the vernacular came into play, and other sports pundits have used it since the Hertyl 4, and Thorntons comments on it, which also can't be mentioned in polite ways...

Like any weird urban lingo its hard to see where it got started but some saying it got started several years ago and that they grew up with the term as describing 4 goals because everything in texas is bigger..

Being older I rarely heard of it until recently. But last night wasn't the first time I heard it on a broadcast. I think it was even used earlier this season when Neal scored 4 goals against the Islanders.

 

[Wen22]

I missed the third period because I needed to drive to my own game, you can thank me for the goals scored during that period