Speculation: 2018 Off-Season: We fell short again... now what do we do?

[These Are The Days]

I'm gonna bang the table again and say we need better D that can shoot and do it effectively.
For the sake of not hearing "small sample size" I took the highest number of SOG by defensemen of the Conference Finalists. So that’s Winnipeg, Washington and Vegas and us. I divided their SOG by their games played to come to an average of shots per game. This is to contrast defensive shooting proficiency. I ensured that I selected the defensemen who were playing most.

By order of shots per game on average

Carlson 3.33 WAS 24 games played
Buff 3.23 WPG 17 games played
Trouba 2.52 VGK 17 games played
Hedman 2.29 TBL 17 games played
Orlov 2.0 WAS games played
Theodore 1.95 VGK 20 games played
Schmidt 1.9 VGK 20 games played
Miller 1.8 VGK 20 games played
Kempny 1.625 24 games played
Morrissey 1.625 WPG 16 games played
Myers 1.5625 WPG 16 games played
Sergachev 1.52 TBL 17 games played

So our top defensemen clock in at 4 and 12 on that list respectively for average SOG for per game. We have 2 primary shooters that stack up comparatively to the field and every other team had 3 and 4. For shits and giggles ya’ll wanna know what the rest of our defense averaged?

Girardi 22 SOG 17 games played = 1.29
Stralman 21 SOG 17 games played =1.23
McDonagh 22 SOG 17 games played=1.23
Coburn 14 SOG 17 games played = 0.82 <--- LOLS!!!

Hedman took 39 SOG and Sergachev 26 SOG respectively.

Let it sink in for a moment that Orlov alone finished with 18 SOG for the ENTIRE ECF and Carlson managed 25. That alone is more SOG alone in a SINGLE SERIES than 4 of our defensemen managed in 17 games.

Wanna know our totals for the series?

Hedman 9
Sergachev 8
Stralman 10
Coburn 5
Girardi 10
McDonagh 10

This literally means that Carlson alone combined for more SOG than Coburn, Girardi and Stralman. And Orlov bettered both McDonagh AND Sergachev. The lone 9 SOG by Hedman is the only difference now.

Is it a solid defense? Yes. One of the best in the NHL. Hands down. Is the lack of SOG generated by defense the result of coaching? We'll have to find out. I've seen enough of Coburn and Stralman to know that passing around and taking a slapper isn't exactly their biggest strength. We literally spent the entire series attacking with only 3 forwards while the D pinched back nearly panicking if the puck came their way. I truly think it's a mix of both coaching and the skillset of our players. In the meantime we need another offensive minded shooter back there.

But in any case if Cooper doesn't get these guys shooting more next year he needs to lose his job. The numbers prove irrefutably that this trend needs to change and it needs to change in a hurry.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Yeah but who is leaving or sitting? We currently have Hedman, Stralman, McDonagh, Sergachev, Coburn and Girardi. 6 full time NHLers that aren't entirely bad. I don't see Yzerman moving Girardi when he was good throughout 92/99 games this season and Coburn, without checking, has just 1 year left at 3.7M. Who goes? Coburn? If so, that means we would need a lefty, or we throw Sergachev down to bottom pairing minutes - again - and ride with McDonagh on the 2nd pairing. I'd rather not. I don't think we need to acquire a defenseman this year. Getting a defenseman for the sake of bettering this group seems in vain. It really does. The fact that Yzerman even is interested in Tanev worries me. We have a solid top 4 and a bottom pairing of Coburn and Girardi. That's got potential to win a cup. Under a different system on the backend, it could get better (or worse) but I'm not concerned with their abilities. They need a "Get it the **** out of your zone" system, not a 60 game RHD. And no disrespect to Tanev, he's great but we really don't need him.

We need to get bigger up front. That's about it. Let Girardi and Coburn play off their final years, and explore the kids in Cernak and Foote next season for lower cap hits.

Cernak probably will step in before Foote. I really hope the new coach has a man to man method. It's not like our d is small.

 

[Todd1a]

Yeah but who is leaving or sitting? We currently have Hedman, Stralman, McDonagh, Sergachev, Coburn and Girardi. 6 full time NHLers that aren't entirely bad. I don't see Yzerman moving Girardi when he was good throughout 92/99 games this season and Coburn, without checking, has just 1 year left at 3.7M. Who goes? Coburn? If so, that means we would need a lefty, or we throw Sergachev down to bottom pairing minutes - again - and ride with McDonagh on the 2nd pairing. I'd rather not. I don't think we need to acquire a defenseman this year. Getting a defenseman for the sake of bettering this group seems in vain. It really does. The fact that Yzerman even is interested in Tanev worries me. We have a solid top 4 and a bottom pairing of Coburn and Girardi. That's got potential to win a cup. Under a different system on the backend, it could get better (or worse) but I'm not concerned with their abilities. They need a "Get it the **** out of your zone" system, not a 60 game RHD. And no disrespect to Tanev, he's great but we really don't need him.

We need to get bigger up front. That's about it. Let Girardi and Coburn play off their final years, and explore the kids in Cernak and Foote next season for lower cap hits.

If I had to guess they would probably trade coburn if they get another top 4 rhd

 

[Stammertime91]

Cernak probably will step in before Foote. I really hope the new coach has a man to man method. It's not like our d is small.

Agreed. We have such a big back end but they play so small. Rarely does somebody step up and deliver an open ice hit and even along the boards, its tie ups only. An ounce of nastiness wouldn't hurt and playing tighter on guys could help that. We waive sticks too much instead of taking the body.

 

[Kusic]

I am just thinking about Wayne Simmonds, as Miller/TJ (or both) replacement. Any thoughts? He would be a great piece to our roster.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I am just thinking about Wayne Simmonds, as Miller/TJ (or both) replacement. Any thoughts? He would be a great piece to our roster.

I like him but don't like him here.

 

[Master P]

I am just thinking about Wayne Simmonds, as Miller/TJ (or both) replacement. Any thoughts? He would be a great piece to our roster.

Maybe if he was a few years younger.

 

[Stormbreaker]

Official

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Official

11 Million in cap space right now. Without resigning anyone next season and the cap staying the same we have 46 Million in cap space.

...KAP PRABLUMZ!

 

[Sky04]

Tanev's not cheap either, unless we're moving Coburn out we're increasing cap usage on defense. Hedman (7.88), Stralman (4.5), McDonagh (4.7), Sergachev (.894) at 18m for that talent is very good value on our defense, we should be taking advantage of that value but upping our forwards, that advantage diminishes if you waste cap on the bottom pairing. Tanev (4.45), Coburn (3.70), Girardi (3.00), that's 11m for 3 guys who should be seeing bottom pairing time. Not sure how Tanev is worth the cap with a top-4 as talented as ours already and bottom pairing defenseman who are relatively expensive in Coburn and Girardi already on the roster..

We have Dotchin signed for another year, Koekkoek is still an RFA for 1 year, with decent coaching they should be capable of handling or splitting 3rd pairing ice time while providing us with a cheap caphits. Should be using those 2 as stopgaps for another year before other cheap AHL replacements come up to take their spots. We should be looking to move one of Coburn or Girardi not add another expensive 3rd pairing guy.

This team would go a much longer way by balancing out the forward group, not many if any other top offensive team can boast the talent we already have in the top-4 on defense. We also don't want to blow all of our cap out because of the extensions required next year.

 

[AndreRoy]

If the new D coach is OK with Sergechev moving to the right hand side (which he says he prefers), then our top 4 are set with Hedman-Sergachev McD-Stralman, with X-Giradi. If not Segechev is stuck on the 3rd pair. It is an upgrade on KoekKoek/Giradi/Coburn third pair that is needed. Tanev is a nice luxury, but I rather gets some picks back for Johnson, KoekKoek, to keep feeding the pipe.

I agree that those are clearly our top four defensemen; the problem is there’s really not a great combination of pairings between them (which is another reason why McDonagh was the wrong guy to bring in, but I digress.) I’m not a huge fan of Hedman-Serg: if Serg struggles he’ll weigh Hedman down and if he excels it’ll be a waste to have them both on the same pairing. On the other hand reuniting the Swedes on the top pairing would mean McD-Serg on the second which could potentially be quite shaky defensively given McD’s struggles in his own zone and the fact that both defensemen like to jump up into the play in the offensive zone. The only other possibility would be to reunite Serg with Stralman and to put McDonagh with Hedman, but McD isn’t as comfortable on the right as Serg so that isn’t ideal either.

Regardless I’d much rather see one of those combinations than to have Coburn or Girardi anywhere near the top four at this point. And I don’t like the idea of Coburn and Girardi together, either: they’re both in decline and we need some new blood in there, preferably somebody who can move the puck and contribute offensively. Unless Masin or Cernak clearly beats him out in camp I’d start the season with Koekkoek on the bottom pairing with Girardi and finally give him a solid opportunity to prove he belongs; if that doesn’t work out I’d move on to whichever of our prospects looks the most ready.

 

[DFC]

I'd still like to kick the tires on kovalchuk, something short term. Even if it meant we had to trade Johnson and/or miller, it would give us a lethal top-9, assuming kovalchuk can still be a 30 goal scorer.

X-Stamkos-Kucherov
Kovalchuk-Point-X
Palat-X-Gourde

 

[DFC]

Maybe if he was a few years younger.

He only has a year left. We could bring him in, see what he's got left, and then decide if we want to keep him around or spend the money elsewhere. As our core gets locked up, bringing in impact players on short-term deals could give us timely flexibility.

 

[Rschmitz]

I'm going to pass on Kovalchuk. Most might cite his questionable character for jetting to the KHL, but I'm more concerned with how he'll transition back to the smaller ice.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'd love Kovalchuk for the sheer reason that I fully believe that Kucherov would listen to him and Kovalchuk would be unafraid to do the friendly equivalent of slapping Kucherov upside the head when he starts in on his bad habits and would at least glare at Stamkos when he starts on his

 

[Stammertime91]

Would probably pass out from pure joy if we got Kovalchuk. Wanted him last year too. Still has an incredible shot and unlike the doubters claiming he's done or he's slow - wrong. Sure he might struggle making the transition again but he's still a very good player. He's 35, not 53.

 

[Lightning1995]

·
35m
Lot has been written about Vegas, but I do believe Tampa Bay is still interested in an Erik Karlsson trade.

 

[Fabiobest]

I've read the Travis Jost tweet...about Erik Karlsson...
Let's see what will happen...

 

[Raymones]

I agree that those are clearly our top four defensemen; the problem is there’s really not a great combination of pairings between them (which is another reason why McDonagh was the wrong guy to bring in, but I digress.) I’m not a huge fan of Hedman-Serg: if Serg struggles he’ll weigh Hedman down and if he excels it’ll be a waste to have them both on the same pairing. On the other hand reuniting the Swedes on the top pairing would mean McD-Serg on the second which could potentially be quite shaky defensively given McD’s struggles in his own zone and the fact that both defensemen like to jump up into the play in the offensive zone. The only other possibility would be to reunite Serg with Stralman and to put McDonagh with Hedman, but McD isn’t as comfortable on the right as Serg so that isn’t ideal either.

Regardless I’d much rather see one of those combinations than to have Coburn or Girardi anywhere near the top four at this point. And I don’t like the idea of Coburn and Girardi together, either: they’re both in decline and we need some new blood in there, preferably somebody who can move the puck and contribute offensively. Unless Masin or Cernak clearly beats him out in camp I’d start the season with Koekkoek on the bottom pairing with Girardi and finally give him a solid opportunity to prove he belongs; if that doesn’t work out I’d move on to whichever of our prospects looks the most ready.

IMO, bringing Tanev is a great idea. I think he's a tad underrated due to his injury history. He is a Stralman/Hjalmarsson type: smart, positionally sound with a good outlet pass. No real flaws. Great hockey sense. I'd love to see him added to the roster as it would give coaches lots of flexibility. For example, we could ice:

Hedman-Tanev (to let Hedman really freak out offensively)
Serg-Stralman (to let Serg freak out offensively and continue developing with a solid, solid partner)
McDonagh-Girardi (Best third-pairing ever and capable of eating a lot PK time along with #77,#6 and Tanev)

If the above pairings don't work there'd be different options. For example we know Stralman-Hedman works very well. Tanev could partner Serg, or you could go McD-Tanev as a solid 2nd pairing.

It all comes down to the price of course.. But I think the price will be reasonable due to his injury history and lack of point-production.

I'm going to pass on Kovalchuk. Most might cite his questionable character for jetting to the KHL, but I'm more concerned with how he'll transition back to the smaller ice.

Agreed. However, if management thinks: let's go all f***ing in and adds the pieces for a final run with McD, Stralman, Kuch and Point contracts still cheap) and all it takes is a one-year deal: let's do it! He's huge, a great sniper and would really put other coaches in deep trouble trying to match up.

 

[Todd1a]

·
35m
Lot has been written about Vegas, but I do believe Tampa Bay is still interested in an Erik Karlsson trade.

what the heck would we trade for him we don't have the assets anymore really

 

[Outl4w]

McD,Miller, 2nd this tear, and 2nd that turns into a a 1st for next year if we win a playoff series. That would be epic but never happen. Imagine the hockey world explode if that happens. We can even throw in one of Kilhorn,Coburn, or Girardi. Vegas gets their pick.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I give Karlsson trade here about 10% chance at happening. Too many other teams have more to offer. However if he says to other teams I wont re-sign I want to go to TB in the offseason then that gives us a chance. I give that 5% chance at happening and a 5% chance at SY giving up our other prospects/picks to make it happen. Dont know if that makes much sense lol. Either way I think he ends up going to Vegas and they give him a big extension.

 

[Todd1a]

I give Karlsson trade here about 10% chance at happening. Too many other teams have more to offer. However if he says to other teams I wont re-sign I want to go to TB in the offseason then that gives us a chance. I give that 5% chance at happening and a 5% chance at SY giving up our other prospects/picks to make it happen. Dont know if that makes much sense lol. Either way I think he ends up going to Vegas and they give him a big extension.

We got to pay point and kucherov we won't have the cap space to pay karlsson what he wants by the time he becomes a free agent any way unless we just pay hedman and karlsson and have all others on Entry level contracts lol and buy out callahan lol

 

[CupsOverCash]

We got to pay point and kucherov we won't have the cap space to pay karlsson what he wants by the time he becomes a free agent any way unless we just pay hedman and karlsson and have all others on Entry level contracts lol and buy out callahan lol

SY finds a way damn it!

 

[DFC]

I can't see it happening without a 1st, and we don't have one until 2020. Maybe Yzerman is trying to bring in another team? Or maybe JT Miller + Tyler Johnson + Cal Foote or something?

I'm not sure I like paying that kind of price for a soon-to-be UFA, but man, acquiring Karlsson would give us an All Time Great defense. On paper, anyway. (And wow, look at all those Swedes.)