We are not as bad; but change must follow.... promptly.

[Butchy Dakkar]

We are 6 points back of two of the wildcard spots with a game in hand on both and then 67 games to go. Why do people keep saying we are already out of the race?

 

[bert]

We are 6 points back of two of the wildcard spots with a game in hand on both and then 67 games to go. Why do people keep saying we are already out of the race?

Because they have to jump 7 good teams to get there. The team may have a shot if it were healthy but the injuries are aweful and the team doesnt play with very good structure.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Because they have to jump 7 good teams to get there. The team may have a shot if it were healthy but the injuries are aweful and the team doesnt play with very good structure.

Do you put this on the coach or the players?

While it's hard to separate the two, and DJ obviously deserves part of the blame, most of the catastrophes I see are caused by guys cheating from the system, rather than adhering to it and failing as a result. Way too many times a guy has hoped he would pick up the puck, because if he does he will have an opportunity, rather than stopping on the puck and ensuring possession, and way too often this has ended up in our net. I don't see a team that is underemphasizing skill, I see a team that is too reliant on individual effort in the times when they should be relying on positioning & structure. Every team dumps and chases, every team stretches the ice with a tip in... that can be very effective if the players are moving as a unit. If they aren't, though, it's just giving the puck away.

Of course, there are some good elements to the team game as well.

 

[bashbros32]

We are 6 points back of two of the wildcard spots with a game in hand on both and then 67 games to go. Why do people keep saying we are already out of the race?

Look at it from a win percentage perspective, yes we "could" make a comeback and make it or barely miss.

However, the 2 wildcard teams are on pace for 92 and 93 points respectively currently, and we are on pace for 62.

So in your eyes the team "only" has to make up 3 games, and then keep pace/do slightly better in order to make it.

From my perspective, the team needs to make a season-wide 30 point leap from their current projection. With no Norris for the whole year supposedly, Chabot is concussed so that 7 days could turn out to be real wrong, and a starting goalie with a .899 save percentage.

Edit: the math on that currently means that in order to avoid tie-breakers with FLA-DET-MTL-TBL who all have the same projection currently, we would need to end the season with 94 points.

in order to end the season with 94 points we need to accumulate 83 in our next 68 games. 83 points is achieved by winning 41 and losing 1 in overtime, or a number of other combinations.

This means we only have another 26 regulation losses available to us, without any of those teams improving there records.

 

[R We A Team]

So you are saying we should just give up on the team cause they have no chance with 70 games to go. Now what am I going to do?

Here I thought I could watch all season to see if this team was going to be playing as a competitive team while allowing the young guys to grow under the watchful eye of the veteran Giroux.

Playoffs were supposed to be a bonus this year but for some it seems that was the minimum?

Injuries this year will test those still on the roster, which should bring growth, which in turn will help set us up for next year when the team should be better positioned experience wise and roster wise to actually be competing for the playoffs.

As a bonus by next year a couple of the top teams in the east will be looking at dropping in the standings as teams like ours, Buffalo, Detroit start to move up.

Just my 2 cents... Back to playing Eldon Ring I guess. You sure we have no chance???

 

[bashbros32]

So you are saying we should just give up on the team cause they have no chance with 70 games to go. Now what am I going to do?

Here I thought I could watch all season to see if this team was going to be playing as a competitive team while allowing the young guys to grow under the watchful eye of the veteran Giroux.

Playoffs were supposed to be a bonus this year but for some it seems that was the minimum?

Injuries this year will test those still on the roster, which should bring growth, which in turn will help set us up for next year when the team should be better positioned experience wise and roster wise to actually be competing for the playoffs.

As a bonus by next year a couple of the top teams in the east will be looking at dropping in the standings as teams like ours, Buffalo, Detroit start to move up.

Just my 2 cents... Back to playing Eldon Ring I guess. You sure we have no chance???

This year was always a development year, the goal was always "playing meaningful games in the spring"

The issue lies in the idea that we may not even be playing "meaningful" games by the end of the month...

However, for such a young core, every game at the NHL level is still a meaningful game, just not for this years playoffs.

Another issue lies in the idea that there is no set, simple path to correcting our largest holes, we have no top pairing RD, and our depth is atrocious. The depth issue could be solved if the whole hockey Canada thing never happened (I mean the event itself, not that it got out) and if our coach would make the easiest team-depth decision in the world by sliding Giroux to C.

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
DeBrincat - Giroux - Joseph
Motte - Pinto - Brassard

>>>>>>>>>

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
DeBrincat - Brassard - Giroux
Motte - Pinto - Joseph

and that third line looks WAYYYYYY better with

Formenton - Pinto - Joseph

or

Formenton - Pinto - Brassard

Sliding Motte into the 4th line LW position and scratching our least effective forward.

 

[bert]

Do you put this on the coach or the players?

While it's hard to separate the two, and DJ obviously deserves part of the blame, most of the catastrophes I see are caused by guys cheating from the system, rather than adhering to it and failing as a result. Way too many times a guy has hoped he would pick up the puck, because if he does he will have an opportunity, rather than stopping on the puck and ensuring possession, and way too often this has ended up in our net. I don't see a team that is underemphasizing skill, I see a team that is too reliant on individual effort in the times when they should be relying on positioning & structure. Every team dumps and chases, every team stretches the ice with a tip in... that can be very effective if the players are moving as a unit. If they aren't, though, it's just giving the puck away.

Of course, there are some good elements to the team game as well.

I think its both thats why they need a new GM, who in turn hires a new coach. Wont happen until there is new ownership. Thats the reality of where this team is at.

 

[coladin]

Obviously it doesn't look great, but an interesting stat in that Athletic article about Alfie was that we were 7-11-1 to start the season the year we went to the finals. Obviously situations like that are outliers, I am aware. Still, it's too early in the season to have our players start giving up, that's my main concern. To be corny about it, when there's an illness, putting off seeing a doctor will only make things worse

And I remember at that time Chris Kelly was the No.1 center as both Fisher and Spezza were injured, week to week. This could have the same effect on the team starting tonight. They have to pay attention to the details. They have to backcheck. They have to more than ever quit cheating and come back and help the D out. They have to more than ever stop puck watching and cover the points better. And finally, they have to get regular goal support from the forwards. And goes without saying a goalie gettint hot.

 

[bashbros32]

And I remember at that time Chris Kelly was the No.1 center as both Fisher and Spezza were injured, week to week. This could have the same effect on the team starting tonight. They have to pay attention to the details. They have to backcheck. They have to more than ever quit cheating and come back and help the D out. They have to more than ever stop puck watching and cover the points better. And finally, they have to get regular goal support from the forwards. And goes without saying a goalie gettint hot.

I definitely don't have that good of a memory, but would Vermette not have been our defacto 1C with Spezza and Fisher down?

Also Kelly had 38 points that year, holy crap.

 

[coladin]

I definitely don't have that good of a memory, but would Vermette not have been our defacto 1C with Spezza and Fisher down?

Also Kelly had 38 points that year, holy crap.

Definitely was Kelly between Alfie and Heatley
Vermette was on the second line with Schaefer and I think Eaves...but I think this may have been when they went and got Comrie. It has beena while!

 

[Cosmix]

Thats what I am hinting at. Nothing should be done until ownership if firmed up and they can start with their vision. No new coach worthwhile is going to want to come in here until that if finalized. No point in replacing a GM until the ownership is completed. The team is stuck with these guys for now whether we like it or not. Hopefully they dont do too much damage to the current group in the meantime.

The GM should be handcuffed by the executive until a sale is made and the new owners decide what changes need to be made.

I think we need to be patient. We're young so we're gonna be streaky. If we follow this up with a big winning streak, were right back over 500 and not needing to freak out.

If this team can continue its trends of how they finish the season, just going into the new year at 500 means we can make the playoffs.

The owner has been patient with the GM for too long.

 

[Cosmix]

This year was always a development year, the goal was always "playing meaningful games in the spring"

The issue lies in the idea that we may not even be playing "meaningful" games by the end of the month...

However, for such a young core, every game at the NHL level is still a meaningful game, just not for this years playoffs.

Another issue lies in the idea that there is no set, simple path to correcting our largest holes, we have no top pairing RD, and our depth is atrocious. The depth issue could be solved if the whole hockey Canada thing never happened (I mean the event itself, not that it got out) and if our coach would make the easiest team-depth decision in the world by sliding Giroux to C.

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
DeBrincat - Giroux - Joseph
Motte - Pinto - Brassard

>>>>>>>>>

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Batherson
DeBrincat - Brassard - Giroux
Motte - Pinto - Joseph

and that third line looks WAYYYYYY better with

Formenton - Pinto - Joseph

or

Formenton - Pinto - Brassard

Sliding Motte into the 4th line LW position and scratching our least effective forward.

I was nodding in agreement until you added Brassard.

 

[bashbros32]

I was nodding in agreement until you added Brassard.

... would you rather Motte on 3RW?

I think Brass is still a more effective player, Motte hasn't shown a single thing since his early season surge.

Both have 2 points since Brassard started playing, Brass is +2 (I know not great stat, but still) and Motte is -1.

Motte Kills penalties (you can do this from the 4th line) and Brassard can take faceoffs.

 

[dumbdick]

It's really simple.

Our offence is super readable for opposing defenders.

 

[ColinM]

Has even a last place team ever lost so many one goal games?

 

[Salva Mea]

we have huge resource about attack potential.. top 6 is very good + pinto

goalie average, ( and its good because we have no clear starter goalie)...

third line is average also ,sometimes good sometimes bad and its normal, ( jospeh + motte overall not bad)..


our problem is D and four line..

four line is one of the bad in whole league.. its clear.. kelly and watson have zero impact ( kastelic is norm ),,


what about D :

zub no comment , just give this guy his own money ( 4.5 - 5.5m).

we are lucky about sandy.. hi will be absolutely beast and clear top D in future ( near future)..

Chabot for me anyway top D, no matter what strat hi have ( im ok with him anyway)..

and now our problem is starts :d...

i love branny, no matter what problem hi have, just love him . but if will be good offer i will trade him.. ( +because we have left side chabot and sandy )....


next holden -hamonic + JBD

no good skate + atrocius offensive ... hamonic scored i know but they holden + hamonic had many chance to shoot good but of course always meh . ...

+ how hamonic skating is just joke..

JBD is trade peace, for me, have no interesting skilsl...hi playing clear hockey i know but anyway, i dont like, you can easly searchin nhl more experience and 800k+1k player.. for third line..


this team need normal 4 line,not like islanders but , just normal :d...

+ top 4 RHD

it means + 2 good fighter boy in 4 line and one very good RHD who can play in diffence and can shoot also..

 

[Micklebot]

It's really simple.

Our offence is super readable for opposing defenders.

I mean, we're one of the higher scoring teams in the league, expectations might be a bit high if you think our offense is the problem.

I think all considered, we could be better on the PP, but even there, I'd say we're more average than bad, we have the 12th best PP% in the league...

 

[UglyPuckling]

We are 6 points back of two of the wildcard spots with a game in hand on both and then 67 games to go. Why do people keep saying we are already out of the race?

A Sportsnet article said the following: "From the 2013-14 season to 2017-18, a whopping 62 of 80 of teams in a playoff spot at U.S. Thanksgiving wound up qualifying for a playoff spot.

That works out to 77.5 per cent, which is significant, and it’s also in line with trends during full seasons in the salary cap era, regardless of divisional alignment."

So, it's not impossible for the Senators to make the playoffs, but its down to only a 22% chance. Even if the Senators win the next 4 games that they have between now and U.S. Thanksgiving, they would be just barely at a 50% win percentage.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

A Sportsnet article said the following: "From the 2013-14 season to 2017-18, a whopping 62 of 80 of teams in a playoff spot at U.S. Thanksgiving wound up qualifying for a playoff spot.

That works out to 77.5 per cent, which is significant, and it’s also in line with trends during full seasons in the salary cap era, regardless of divisional alignment."

So, it's not impossible for the Senators to make the playoffs, but its down to only a 22% chance. Even if the Senators win the next 4 games that they have between now and U.S. Thanksgiving, they would be just barely at a 50% win percentage.

So your telling me there’s a chance!

I’ll take those odds and continue to watch games with hope that we can turn this ship around. It’s not like we are getting blown out, so maybe we have a “better 22%” than the other current non-playoff teams.

We need a run of wins though, that’s for damn sure.

 

[dumbdick]

I mean, we're one of the higher scoring teams in the league, expectations might be a bit high if you think our offense is the problem.

I think all considered, we could be better on the PP, but even there, I'd say we're more average than bad, we have the 12th best PP% in the league...

I don't think goal counts tell the story here.

I find the offense, once we're setup in the zone, is too slow and deliberate. There are a lot of pointless passes at the perimeter without a lot of accompanying foot movement. Always looking for a seam pass that isn't going to open up because the team isn't forcing the defence to move much.

It's really easy to defend against an offense where 4 or 5 guys are standing still at any given time, and the guy with the puck is blatantly telegraphing pass (chabot is particularly guilty of this).

Maybe there are stats that bear that observation out better, but that's what my eyes are telling me.

 

[Micklebot]

I don't think goal counts tell the story here.

I find the offense, once we're setup in the zone, is too slow and deliberate. There are a lot of pointless passes at the perimeter without a lot of accompanying foot movement. Always looking for a seam pass that isn't going to open up because the team isn't forcing the defence to move much.

It's really easy to defend against an offense where 4 or 5 guys are standing still at any given time, and the guy with the puck is blatantly telegraphing pass (chabot is particularly guilty of this).

Maybe there are stats that bear that observation out better, but that's what my eyes are telling me.

We're 3rd 5v5 in HDFC/60 4th in SCF/60 and 4th in xGF/60

On the PP, we are more pedestrian at 14th, 22nd and 23rd

Like I said, we can score, we could be better on the PP but we're still more average than outright bad on the PP imo, and that's mostly while missing our top PP shooter from last year.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

The utilization of DeBrincat on the PP is an absolute joke. Chabot... then Sanderson would walk the line and feed it to Stutzle instead of creating deception or even simply feeding it to DeBrincat for his signature 1 timer. They seem to pass to him only when Stutzle or the opposing winger(sometimes Giroux) is not a possibility.

I have never seen such mismanagement of a 2 time 40 goal and 1 time 50 goal pace player before. Legit cannot believe it.

 

[Mingus Dew]

The utilization of DeBrincat on the PP is an absolute joke. Chabot... then Sanderson would walk the line and feed it to Stutzle instead of creating deception or even simply feeding it to DeBrincat for his signature 1 timer. They seem to pass to him only when Stutzle or the opposing winger(sometimes Giroux) is not a possibility.

I have never seen such mismanagement of a 2 time 40 goal and 1 time 50 goal pace player before. Legit cannot believe it.

He ain't gonna be a 40 goal scorer for long.

When we go to trade him he'll be a 25 goal scorer getting paid a 9 spot.

 

[NyQuil]

Our PP just seems that much more critical when we keep losing one goal games.

 

[SensFan4lyfe]

The problem is Dorion rushed the rebuild and tried to end it to fast, instead of just letting pieces falling into place and letting it happen naturally.

Stutzle and Norris is not a 1-2 punch you win a cup with.

Chabot is honestly looking like Reddin 2.0 to me

This team is lacking a franchise player, someone who can carry a team on there back,

The coaching is trash and we have a gm who doesnt know how to do a propper rebuild

Dorion need to be fired, the coach needs to be fired and this team needs a coach who can give them guidance and help them grow into winners, its needa gm who knows the right piece to add to the mix.

We should never have tried to become a play off team the year of one of the deepest drafts ever,

They need to sell Girioux and Debrindacat add more assets and continue to develop a team.

I'm not saying tank, but we should be looking to get pieces for the future because the future is not now.