GDT: Washington @ New Jersey | 11/26/22 | 7:00p ET

[CapitalsCupReality]

That’s not how works lmfao. Sophomore slumps are usually a player who was once sheltered fully experiencing the rigors of 82 games and falling off a bit, not being underdeveloped and going to the AHL to do less than he did before being touched by “NHL coaching”. f*** out of here with that.

If he “is what he is” how is he worse than he used to be? Who was it that posted the quote from the prospect recently that said they had to remember what they used to be in the AHL because their NHL coaching had broken them of what made them successful?

Oh!! “That’s not how it works”….lol indeed.

Players regress, it happens all the time and not under your “usually” scenario only.

Why does the player have no accountability in this fantasy scenario of yours where it’s all on the coaches? Why? Because you are hyper focused on a player you like and want playing in the NHL and you ignore his warts so far.

He is what he is…a struggling young player who needs some time still. Th F*** outta here indeed.

 

[Langway]

It would be easier to accept if other younger players like Fehervary & Protas weren't also struggling to progress. Maybe on a trustworthiness level they're doing fine but it's an awfully limited rubric in the bigger picture and one that doesn't do them many favors. They're essentially right about replacement level overall and IMO regressing offensively. I wasn't a big believer in Fehervary's offensive game to begin with but he's been noticeably less aggressive/effective and not with any apparent methodical reasoning for it. He looks like an increasingly limited player whose hockey sense isn't getting any better.

It's hard for any younger player to develop on the fly with their wildly varying engagement and effectiveness as a team. It takes a can't miss type talent, thinker of the game and leader and those are rare. They just don't do development at a high level or else there would be a lot different than it currently is on a lot of levels. While it's not an anomaly that they're only as good as their best players there's also been no real organizational push to help insulate or complement them much. Reality is what it is. Without the organization stepping up they can't expect to be bailed out each and every year by aging players. They need to do better implementing higher standards across the board and more effectively managing to integrate some needed fresh blood. Instead it's largely just the opposite and it's hard to see that ever changing under Lavi without an extremely special crop. The pipeline isn't great to be sure but we did see last season and earlier on this season in the case of Protas that there's more there than what they're managing to get out.

Other organizations have managed to exploit that a few times now. It's a troubling dynamic that mostly calls into question MacLellan's capacity to shape the agenda generally. They've got to juggle multiple priorities much better than a more simplified win-now, rinse and repeat approach. They need to fully grasp what they're sacrificing in order to, say, just remain a WC2 level team. Ownership, again, has its place in setting that priority I'm sure. But they've still got to manage to become more effectively resourceful to remain sustainably viable.

 

[twabby]

It would be easier to accept if other younger players like Fehervary & Protas weren't also struggling to progress. Maybe on a trustworthiness level they're doing fine but it's an awfully limited rubric in the bigger picture and one that doesn't do them many favors. They're essentially right about replacement level overall and IMO regressing offensively. I wasn't a big believer in Fehervary's offensive game to begin with but he's been noticeably less aggressive/effective and not with any apparent methodical reasoning for it. He looks like an increasingly limited player whose hockey sense isn't getting any better.

It's hard for any younger player to develop on the fly with their wildly varying engagement and effectiveness as a team. It takes a can't miss type talent, thinker of the game and leader and those are rare. They just don't do development at a high level or else there would be a lot different than it currently is on a lot of levels. While it's not an anomaly that they're only as good as their best players there's also been no real organizational push to help insulate or complement them much. Reality is what it is. Without the organization stepping up they can't expect to be bailed out each and every year by aging players. They need to do better implementing higher standards across the board and more effectively managing to integrate some needed fresh blood. Instead it's largely just the opposite and it's hard to see that ever changing under Lavi without an extremely special crop. The pipeline isn't great to be sure but we did see last season and earlier on this season in the case of Protas that there's more there than what they're managing to get out.

Other organizations have managed to exploit that a few times now. It's a troubling dynamic that mostly calls into question MacLellan's capacity to shape the agenda generally. They've got to juggle multiple priorities much better than a more simplified win-now, rinse and repeat approach. They need to fully grasp what they're sacrificing in order to, say, just remain a WC2 level team. Ownership, again, has its place in setting that priority I'm sure. But they've still got to manage to become more effectively resourceful to remain sustainably viable.

This is why for the first time I think MacLellan needs to be on the hot-seat. It's easy to say that Washington's pipeline is barren because they've picked late in the first round, or they've traded prior picks away to compete, or the players themselves just haven't done their job. But they've also failed to identify talent that they did have (Siegenthaler, Stephenson, perhaps Burakovsky) or failed to help them make the next step to date (Fehervary, McMichael).

Ignoring McMichael for now, I have a hard time trusting the current regime developing the next wave of guys. Players like Lapierre, Miroshnichenko, Iorio, Chesley. They're going to need to be impactful players in order to transition to the next era and so far I haven't seen enough from the organization to indicate they are going to prioritize a healthy development rather than forcing them into becoming "safe" secondary/tertiary options on the big club when it is time.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It would be easier to accept if other younger players like Fehervary & Protas weren't also struggling to progress. Maybe on a trustworthiness level they're doing fine but it's an awfully limited rubric in the bigger picture and one that doesn't do them many favors. They're essentially right about replacement level overall and IMO regressing offensively. I wasn't a big believer in Fehervary's offensive game to begin with but he's been noticeably less aggressive/effective and not with any apparent methodical reasoning for it. He looks like an increasingly limited player whose hockey sense isn't getting any better.

It's hard for any younger player to develop on the fly with their wildly varying engagement and effectiveness as a team. It takes a can't miss type talent, thinker of the game and leader and those are rare. They just don't do development at a high level or else there would be a lot different than it currently is on a lot of levels. While it's not an anomaly that they're only as good as their best players there's also been no real organizational push to help insulate or complement them much. Reality is what it is. Without the organization stepping up they can't expect to be bailed out each and every year by aging players. They need to do better implementing higher standards across the board and more effectively managing to integrate some needed fresh blood. Instead it's largely just the opposite and it's hard to see that ever changing under Lavi without an extremely special crop. The pipeline isn't great to be sure but we did see last season and earlier on this season in the case of Protas that there's more there than what they're managing to get out.

Other organizations have managed to exploit that a few times now. It's a troubling dynamic that mostly calls into question MacLellan's capacity to shape the agenda generally. They've got to juggle multiple priorities much better than a more simplified win-now, rinse and repeat approach. They need to fully grasp what they're sacrificing in order to, say, just remain a WC2 level team. Ownership, again, has its place in setting that priority I'm sure. But they've still got to manage to become more effectively resourceful to remain sustainably viable.

That's your take? One is a rookie, one a 2nd year guy. They're "struggling to progress"? Protas made the team totally by surprise....doesn't sound like that's a struggle to progress, that's progressing at a faster rate than expected at that point.

They don't learn how to be complete NHL'ers overnight. These are multi-year journey's these guys are on.

The pipeline isn't great? It's been average at best for a long while now. The drafting historically hasn't been good enough to even have a quality pipeline. Less failure of organizational development skills and more so just poor scouting and drafting.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is why for the first time I think MacLellan needs to be on the hot-seat. It's easy to say that Washington's pipeline is barren because they've picked late in the first round, or they've traded prior picks away to compete, or the players themselves just haven't done their job. But they've also failed to identify talent that they did have (Siegenthaler, Stephenson, perhaps Burakovsky) or failed to help them make the next step to date (Fehervary, McMichael).

Ignoring McMichael for now, I have a hard time trusting the current regime developing the next wave of guys. Players like Lapierre, Miroshnichenko, Iorio, Chesley. They're going to need to be impactful players in order to transition to the next era and so far I haven't seen enough from the organization to indicate they are going to prioritize a healthy development rather than forcing them into becoming "safe" secondary/tertiary options on the big club when it is time.

Please define "Healthy development", because forcing unready players into the lineup doesn't seem "healthy".

 

[Langway]

Apparently Fehervary has the highest GAR on the team so far (?). So not nothing developmentally thus far. But it has come at a cost offensively and I'm not sure I buy the all-around sense to the point of projecting him as a future top pair guy. Too often he gets sucked above the dots in his own end and vacates the slot needlessly. I get man defense and tracking/fronting but esp. on the PK I hate it when D roll up that high and cause PKers to rotate around. Too often it creates space to exploit. While I've been a believer in him as a legit NHLer and net plus it's still a pretty mixed bag given the offensive regression. This is more like what he profiles as but you'd still like more balance. It's overall less about development not being linear than if they're so unabashedly win-now it should more effectively extend to active, robust development. The time is now. They can't afford patience but that level of detail (beyond effort) also seems lacking. They have so much skin in the game relative to a team like DET that it's negligent to sleepwalk through games and not bring a maximal level of focus on/off the ice.

When it comes to under-performance it's not like it's limited to young players. Mantha in particular you'd have to say there's so much more than what they're getting. He'll bounce back and start putting up points given the chances lately but it's another glaring situation where you'd expect a lot more. They gave up a good bit to land him yet it seems like they don't know how to feature him at all. A third-line X factor is the softest, least confident usage possible.

If the bar for complementary parts is staggeringly high we probably should root for a bottom 6-10 finish, resulting in what should be their best prospect since Forsberg and wholesale turnover of secondary vets. Losing Orlov/Jensen and maybe Sheary would be problematic short-term for sure but the core group is what it is. I'm not sure I'd view them significantly worse if they can't manage to secure WC2 compared to fizzling out. Sometimes it's not in the cards. It's more entertaining if they're still highly effective and in the mix but the math is tough and with Carlson in particular I'm not sure he still offers enough for such a run. Plus, if they narrowly make it and it earns Lavi an extension I doubt their near-term chances get any more favorable.

Not that I'll root against them. Good vibes are better than bad vibes but...the vision isn't that coherent. They seem to only be all-in to the extent that it justifies taking shortcuts and reverting to crutch tendencies. Hard to believe then that a fairly unimaginative, narrow path will be executed to the point needed. They can still be a wagon when at their best but their details are so suspect at times that you wonder if they still have a run in them. And I think that's mostly an organizational failure and not exclusively a function of their best players.

 

[twabby]

Please define "Healthy development", because forcing unready players into the lineup doesn't seem "healthy".

It's hard for me to see a player who was more than ready last year and proved it on the ice suddenly not be ready this year.

Healthy development includes putting a player in a position to succeed and encouraging a skilled player to be creative and to generate offense, even if it comes with making mistakes. Again, everyone including the general manager stated that McMichael was a far better center than a winger, yet he got no time at center this year to prove himself. He played out of position for the limited time he got in DC this year because the team decided it was in their best interest to continue playing an ineffective player in Lars Eller way too much. Protas is also a natural center yet he hasn't seen time there this year either. For a team whose center depth is one of their biggest question marks this seems like unhealthy development to me.

I'd also include stapling Jonas Siegenthaler to the bench in favor of 78 year old Zdeno Chara for an entire year as a mistake in development, though it appears that New Jersey was able to turn that mistake into gold.

 

[twabby]

Apparently Fehervary has the highest GAR on the team so far (?). So not nothing developmentally thus far. But it has come at a cost offensively and I'm not sure I buy the all-around sense to the point of projecting him as a future top pair guy.

I'm interested to see what the GAR numbers for Fehervary do as the season progresses because they don't jive with the xGAR numbers or RAPM (all from Evolving Hockey). Both xGAR and RAPM have Fehervary as their worst regular skater in terms of generating offense, while GAR has him being above average in generating chances. Notably, all three measures agree that Fehervary has improved substantially on the defensive end which is good to see. However the xGAR and RAPM measures put Fehervary right at replacement-level overall (again, an improvement from below replacement last year) while GAR has him as well above replacement. I suspect these measures will converge toward each other as the season goes on.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

This team has been le crap at developing young players for awhile.

 

[Brian23]

This team has been le crap at developing young players for awhile.

Disagree, they've been fine at developing them as evident by them going elsewhere and seemingly immediately turning into productive players. They've been crap at letting them graduate or putting them in proper positions.

It's part of why I have less questions about the talent level of this team then I do the deployment.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's hard for me to see a player who was more than ready last year and proved it on the ice suddenly not be ready this year.

Healthy development includes putting a player in a position to succeed and encouraging a skilled player to be creative and to generate offense, even if it comes with making mistakes. Again, everyone including the general manager stated that McMichael was a far better center than a winger, yet he got no time at center this year to prove himself. He played out of position for the limited time he got in DC this year because the team decided it was in their best interest to continue playing an ineffective player in Lars Eller way too much. Protas is also a natural center yet he hasn't seen time there this year either. For a team whose center depth is one of their biggest question marks this seems like unhealthy development to me.

I'd also include stapling Jonas Siegenthaler to the bench in favor of 78 year old Zdeno Chara for an entire year as a mistake in development, though it appears that New Jersey was able to turn that mistake into gold.

Players take steps back all the time in pro sports. It happens with you know…humans.

Yes, exactly….”put the player in a position to succeed“. If they truly believe he’s not one of the 12 best options, then they are doing that and NOT putting him in a position to fail.

Protas excelled in making the team this year out of position. I don’t think they like him as an NHL center, but instead a wing. So there’s that.

I don’t need to rehash Eller, Seige or Chara or whatever else complaints you want to keep regurgitating. They are well noted.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Disagree, they've been fine at developing them as evident by them going elsewhere and seemingly immediately turning into productive players. They've been crap at letting them graduate or putting them in proper positions.

It's part of why I have less questions about the talent level of this team then I do the deployment.

I have questions about it all….wonder what our ratio of drafting vs graduations to the NHL is vs other Organizations. I feel like they have been average at drafting, and questionable in the graduation/deployment areas….

 

[Brian23]

I have questions about it all….wonder what our ratio of drafting vs graduations to the NHL is vs other Organizations. I feel like they have been average at drafting, and questionable in the graduation/deployment areas….

Looks middle of the pack, but the players we've hit on (whether they've been here or not) have been elite and put us near the top per the below linked article. Basically Ovi, Backstrom, and I assume Carlson, Forsberg, and Kuznetsov have ballooned us.

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

The Blackhawks have made the most picks. The Penguins the least. And the Blue Jackets and Bruins have the most NHL games.

theathletic.com

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

View attachment 613942
Looks middle of the pack, but the players we've hit on (whether they've been here or not) have been elite and put us near the top per the below linked article. Basically Ovi, Backstrom, and I assume Carlson, Forsberg, and Kuznetsov have ballooned us.
View attachment 613944
View attachment 613943

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2005?

The Blackhawks have made the most picks. The Penguins the least. And the Blue Jackets and Bruins have the most NHL games.

theathletic.com

Sorry I haven’t had time to dissect this (thanks for posting), but I wonder if that drops significantly lower (compared to peers) if we take away the 1st round….

 

[Brian23]

Sorry I haven’t had time to dissect this (thanks for posting), but I wonder if that drops significantly lower (compared to peers) if we take away the 1st round….

I mean, at that point you'd just be curtailing the data to prove your own belief. The fact is they've been a good to great drafter over the last 20 years.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I mean, at that point you'd just be curtailing the data to prove your own belief. The fact is they've been a good to great drafter over the last 20 years.

I believe most of our success is largely round one…..and compared to our peers, feels like we’re behind in the rest of the draft….….but maybe my feeling is wrong.….tough to develop many NHLers if we don’t draft much NHL talent beyond one pick a year (and even all of those don’t turn out)…

 

[Rayquaza64]

I believe most of our success is largely round one…..and compared to our peers, feels like we’re behind in the rest of the draft….….but maybe my feeling is wrong.….tough to develop many NHLers if we don’t draft much NHL talent beyond one pick a year (and even all of those don’t turn out)…

I agree that our drafting has been spotty and its especially bad beyond round 1. Since 2002 (20 years) we have had solid success in the first round (Semin, Ovi, Green, Backstrom, Alzner, Kuznetsov, Carlson, Wilson, to name the ones that were the most successful with washington) and we’ve also had some misses (anton johansson, steve eminger, sasha puklok). Beyond that though, its really bad. You have Braden Holtby, Orlov, Neuvirth? and then a lot of people who had a cup of coffee at best in the nhl and most players who had success in those later rounds had them with not washington. As for more recent drafts (2012 onwards), Wilson, LuJo, and the 2018+ first rounders remain in the org. Over the past 20 years it may seem like we were great drafters, but since gmbm took over it seems to have taken a downturn (although recent drafts have seemed to be promising, what has this front office shown me that they know how to develop players?)

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

This has gone way off topic. Please use the correct threads. Locked.