Was the 2020 NHL draft lottery rigged?

[Do Make Say Think]

Pretty simple question: do you believe that the NHL alongside with Ernst & Young worked to ensure that a play-in team would get the first overall pick?

I'm not talking about the entire lottery being rigged here mind you, just that a mystery team would get first overall.

I vote yes.

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[Kairi Zaide]

Ernst & Young wouldn't put their reputation at stake for an insignificant amount compared to their revenues. They're like well over 5 times bigger than the NHL, if not more.

Secondly, there was a 24.5% chance that pick went to a mystery team. This hasn't happened yet since the new lottery format. It doesn't change the odds (i.e. past lottery results don't affect lottery odds), obviously, but that was bound to happen (i.e. a team between 8 and 15 winning the lottery) eventually. Also, odds of one of the mystery team not getting any top-3 pick was below 40%.

Teams also each send a representative to assist to the drawing, however I don't know if that was done due to the current pandemic, but I assume there were things put in place to ensure they could assist to the drawing in real time, and had access to the winning combinations beforehand.

So, can you disagree with the odds and the fact a team placed 15th can jump to 1st overall? Yes. But saying it was rigged is ludicrous.

 

[amnesiac]

why would that benefit the NHL?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ernst & Young wouldn't put their reputation at stake for an insignificant amount compared to their revenues. They're like well over 5 times bigger than the NHL, if not more.

Secondly, there was a 24.5% chance that pick went to a mystery team. This hasn't happened yet since the new lottery format. It doesn't change the odds (i.e. past lottery results don't affect lottery odds), obviously, but that was bound to happen (i.e. a team between 8 and 15 winning the lottery) eventually. Also, odds of one of the mystery team not getting any top-3 pick was below 40%.

Teams also each send a representative to assist to the drawing, however I don't know if that was done due to the current pandemic, but I assume there were things put in place to ensure they could assist to the drawing in real time, and had access to the winning combinations beforehand.

So, can you disagree with the odds and the fact a team placed 15th can jump to 1st overall? Yes. But saying it was rigged is ludicrous.

Well no, I can't disagree with the odds, they are what they are.

Let's just say that the results of all the draft lotteries so far have benefited rich teams (Toronto not falling back) or teams in rich locations that need help (Devils, Chicago).

It could be a coincidence but it certainly looks strange that teams like Ottawa and Detroit keep getting pushed back.

So this poll is about optics: if enough people think the draft is rigged, then as far as public perception goes, the NHL has a problem on that front.

Not unlike with tanking: the only team to actually tank these last 20 years is Buffalo (Edmonton is just run by idiots) and the NHL decided that enough people saw tanking as an issue to enact a new way to the draft lottery.

Perception is reality sometimes.

 

[Romang67]

Ernst & Young wouldn't put their reputation at stake for an insignificant amount compared to their revenues. They're like well over 5 times bigger than the NHL, if not more.

Secondly, there was a 24.5% chance that pick went to a mystery team. This hasn't happened yet since the new lottery format. It doesn't change the odds (i.e. past lottery results don't affect lottery odds), obviously, but that was bound to happen (i.e. a team between 8 and 15 winning the lottery) eventually. Also, odds of one of the mystery team not getting any top-3 pick was below 40%.

Teams also each send a representative to assist to the drawing, however I don't know if that was done due to the current pandemic, but I assume there were things put in place to ensure they could assist to the drawing in real time, and had access to the winning combinations beforehand.

So, can you disagree with the odds and the fact a team placed 15th can jump to 1st overall? Yes. But saying it was rigged is ludicrous.

Factor of 7 normally. With how the pandemic affects sports, I'd guess that we'll be talking about order of magnitudes for 2020.

So no, I don't think Ernst & Young would risk their reputation to rig the lottery of a minor business like the NHL.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

why would that benefit the NHL?

It keeps people interested and with how hard the pandemic is going to be on the business side of thing, making sure a team like Montreal gets first overall will help lessen the impact.

The NHL already lost a ton of money, they need to find ways to mitigate the financial hit and this is a nice subtle way to go about it.

Again, I do not believe that the entire draft lottery was rigged: I just think the NHL told Ernst & Young "just make sure a mystery team gets first overall, we don't really care about the rest".

 

[Empoleon8771]

The only people who think a lottery or competition is "rigged" because a team with a 25% chance wins don't understand how probability works.

 

[Romang67]

It keeps people interested and with how hard the pandemic is going to be on the business side of thing, making sure a team like Montreal gets first overall will help lessen the impact.

The NHL already lost a ton of money, they need to find ways to mitigate the financial hit and this is a nice subtle way to go about it.

Again, I do not believe that the entire draft lottery was rigged: I just think the NHL told Ernst & Young "just make sure a mystery team gets first overall, we don't really care about the rest".

What possible reason would Ernst & Young have to not tell the NHL to go pound sand and immediately drop them as a client if they told them that?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Factor of 7 normally. With how the pandemic affects sports, I'd guess that we'll be talking about order of magnitudes for 2020.

So no, I don't think Ernst & Young would risk their reputation to rig the lottery of a minor business like the NHL.

I am ok with admitting with this being a belief based on nothing but a gut feeling.

Besides, how would anyone be able to find out of Bettman told Ernst & Young to give first overall to a mystery team? Obviously it would be damaging to their reputation but it seems very easy to keep it under wraps.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

What possible reason would Ernst & Young have to not tell the NHL to go pound sand and immediately drop them as a client if they told them that?

Well they'd lose a client and there aren't that many professional sports leagues looking to televise draft lotteries.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I think it’s pretty unlikely it was rigged.

I will say, it was a bit fishy how Daly walked out and immediately said, “So the fact that I have 8 cards means that a participant in the qualifying round has moved into the top 3.”

It was weird, but ultimately the percentages being so evenly spread out between all the teams lends itself to things like what happened last night. It’s not new. Teams have consistently been shooting up the draft board via lottery luck in recent years.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Voting yes in this poll is a great way of advertising your own ignorance.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

The only people who think a lottery or competition is "rigged" because a team with a 25% chance wins don't understand how probability works.

I don't think it was rigged because a mystery team won.

I believe it was rigged because the draft lottery has rewarded rich teams or teams the NHL "likes".

It could be a coincidence. I just think it looks fishy but a lot of things that look fishy are just that, a coincidence.

My main point is optics: I get the feeling a lot of people feel the lottery is rigged. That doesn't mean you get rid of the lottery but it probably means the NHL should look at presenting it in a more transparent manner.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I think it’s pretty unlikely it was rigged.

I will say, it was a bit fishy how Daly walked out and immediately said, “So the fact that I have 8 cards means that a participant in the qualifying round has moved into the top 3.”

It was weird, but ultimately the percentages being so evenly spread out between all the teams lends itself to things like what happened last night. It’s not new. Teams have consistently been shooting up the draft board via lottery luck in recent years.

How was that fishy?

They knew if he had 7 cards, that none of the play-in teams won.

If he had 8, one of them won

9, two of them won.

10, all three were won by play-in teams.

 

[lakai17]

its so weird but there could be worse draft scenarios. It does screw over LA, Detroit and Ottawa majorly if Lafreniere truly is as good as the hype is.

Then a plot twist is that Lafreniere does bust. Highly unlikely.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

It was not rigged, come on now.

I think it’s pretty unlikely it was rigged.

I will say, it was a bit fishy how Daly walked out and immediately said, “So the fact that I have 8 cards means that a participant in the qualifying round has moved into the top 3.”

Umm, how?

It was reported before that if it started at 8, 9 or 10, it means one of the mystery teams won a top 3 pick. Daly was simply letting the more casual viewers know.

 

[Romang67]

I am ok with admitting with this being a belief based on nothing but a gut feeling.

Besides, how would anyone be able to find out of Bettman told Ernst & Young to give first overall to a mystery team? Obviously it would be damaging to their reputation but it seems very easy to keep it under wraps.

Again, what possible reason would they have to risk anything at all? What could the NHL possibly offer them that would sway a company like that to risk their reputation?

Well they'd lose a client and there aren't that many professional sports leagues looking to televise draft lotteries.

They also oversee the NBA lottery. More importantly, so what? They aren't a professional draft lottery overseeing company.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Voting yes in this poll is a great way of advertising your own ignorance.

This about gut feelings.

I think I've made a reasonable case as to why I have this gut feeling while also acknowledging that it is based on nothing but a feeling.

Feelings are wrong a lot of the time. Just look at divorce rates

I just wanted to see how other people feel.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Do people really believe the NHL wanted the headache of a mystery team winning 1st overall?

It's ridiculous people would think that it's rigged. If anything the league would have rigged it for Detroit to win.

Because hello, it's in the league's best interest for Detroit to be good.

 

[Romang67]

For references, the probability that a mystery team would win the 1st overall was about the same as MAF allowing a shootout goal.

Did fans in Pittsburgh, and now in Vegas, really get so shocked when that happened that they immediately started digging into conspiracy theories?

 

[The Burdened]

No chance it was rigged.

Was just an absolute joke and the NHL deserves the ass kicking they're gonna take for this for years.
If Lafreniere reaches his potential, this is the kind of thing TSN will make an expose about in 20-years.

An absolute debacle all the way around.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

How was that fishy?

They knew if he had 7 cards, that none of the play-in teams won.

If he had 8, one of them won

9, two of them won.

10, all three were won by play-in teams.

The way he immediately said it and knew what was going, gave off the feeling that it was planned.

I don’t think it was. Like I said, the percentages are just so evenly spread out, anything can happen. It was just handled poorly.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

This about gut feelings.

I think I've made a reasonable case as to why I have this gut feeling while also acknowledging that it is based on nothing but a feeling.

Feelings are wrong a lot of the time. Just look at divorce rates

I just wanted to see how other people feel.

You have not made a reasonable case. You would know why if you understood the way companies like Ernst and Young operate.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Again, what possible reason would they have to risk anything at all? What could the NHL possibly offer them that would sway a company like that to risk their reputation?


They also oversee the NBA lottery. More importantly, so what? They aren't a professional draft lottery overseeing company.

Ernst & Young is getting paid at a rate they are satisfied with do this. If they don't do it, that revenue is gone and there aren't a lot of other similar venues to make up that loss.

The answer ton the question "why would they risk their rep?" is always "because they think it is worth it and they believe they won't get caught".

It is a fair question to ask: getting caught would be a serious blow to the rep, but how would they get caught if this was rigged? Rigging an event like this wouldn't be complicated or implicate a lot of people.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I don't think it was rigged because a mystery team won.

I believe it was rigged because the draft lottery has rewarded rich teams or teams the NHL "likes".

It could be a coincidence. I just think it looks fishy but a lot of things that look fishy are just that, a coincidence.

My main point is optics: I get the feeling a lot of people feel the lottery is rigged. That doesn't mean you get rid of the lottery but it probably means the NHL should look at presenting it in a more transparent manner.

The devils have won several draft lotteries.... you're own reasoning doesn't even make sense.