dahrougem2
Registered User
And ya know what? F*** em.I'm not saying he would.. I'm saying them going from great goaltending to below average is the main reason for the drop. If they get .930+ goaltending... they'll likely win 85% of games and have a point rate around .825, but that is unsustainable. At this ~.900 rate, they are roughly a .500 team. If they move towards .910-.915 they probably move towards .675-700.
Analytically, they are a different type of team, but in the same realm as the Avs. Avs rely on a lot of shots and a lot of shots from high in the zone to create chaos in the slot. They also push teams heavily to the outside and really rely on clean puck retrievals defensively. Vegas is a heavier team that plays their offense from the corners and low slot. Not a bunch of high rotations. Their defense is less about puck retrieval and more about pushing teams to the perimeter, letting them shoot, blocking shots, and then winning the subsequent puck battle. These styles naturally have different results around the ice. Vegas gives up more shot attempts, holds the puck less, but blocks more shots. They tend to give up more medium and low danger chances, but high danger are in the same realm. On offense, they produce less medium and low danger chances, but more high danger.
In the end the result is two teams that sit neck and neck at 9 and 10 in xGF% (which I think you can argue is pretty average 8-13 is within a percent of each other). Very different ways to get to very similar results. The Avs big edge is they are a naturally much better finishing team which is a testament to the top guys and their skill. Vegas is pretty reliant on getting average or better goaltending due to the more shots and chances they give up.
I hope Vegas suffers nothing but crushing 1st round defeats and missed postseason appearances moving forward.