Posted this a while ago, but going back to 2002 (and maybe even quite a bit before that, I only went to 2002), only one goalie has gotten a top-3 finish when playing in fewer than 53 games and that was Kiprusoff in 2004 with 38 games played. He finished second that year. The closest thing since then with such limited games played was Dubnyk in 2015 with 39 games for Minnesota coming in third, but Dubnyk also played 19 games for Arizona that year, so all in all he played in 58 games that year. But he had that insane stretch with Minnesota, which might have even given him that spot, even if he hadn't played 19 games for Arizona that year. Remember, this is for 82 game seasons only and not including the lockout shortened 48 game season in 2013.
Vasilevskiy is currently at 53 games played, Bishop is at 45. Not sure if Bishop plays the finale or if he's even healthy enough to play, but that would give him 46 games. I expect Vasilevskiy will probably sit for the season finale, but I'm not certain of that.
With how many of the highly used goalies this year either have a lower save percentage than you'd traditionally see a Vezina goalie or finalist have, or their teams missed the playoffs (Price and Kuemper) and outside of Bob winning it in a lockout season, I think Luongo in 2004 was the last top-3 finish on a non-playoff team, maybe Bishop does get a top-3 vote this year, but I don't think he'll win it over Vasilevskiy.
Two of finalists will probably be Vasilevskiy and Andersen for sure, and the last of the top-3 finalists, I'm not sure of right now. Kuemper or Price could have gotten it, but both their team's missed the playoffs. So maybe the third spot does go to Bishop. It could go to Fleury for being a workhorse, despite a lower (but still above average by a bit) save percentage. Maybe Rinne even gets a top-3 spot.
I think Vasilevskiy wins it.
