Rumor: Vegas looking to trade Nikita Gusev. Gusev asking for $4m per year.

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bernmeister

Registered User
Jun 11, 2010
27,873
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Da Big Apple
This is like two blind people trying to sell each other sunglasses

Why?
In phase 1, doesn't LV get instant cap relief?

Phase 2, while value needs to be worked out, it is rfa W for rfa W.

I get if you think you can get a better offer factoring in cap, but after past week, I'm not sure those few who have cap will fork over assets you want for NG.
 

greasysnapper

Registered User
Apr 6, 2018
2,588
1,694
For those that are expecting a Clarkson/Gusev for ___ trade, keep this in mind...

Clarkson has 16-team no trade list. Since his decision is simply tax arbitrage - I would assume his 14 teams are those with lowest state/provincial taxes:

1. Dallas
2. Nashville
3. Florida
4. Tampa Bay
5. Pittsburgh
6. Philadelphia
7. Arizona
8. Colorado
9. Chicago
10. Carolina
11. Detroit
12. St. Louis
13. Columbus
14. Boston

Of those teams, here is a list that could probably handle Gusev/Clarkson on their cap:

8. Colorado
10. Carolina
11. Detroit
13. Columbus

Of those teams, here is the list of could probably spare a young d-man on inexpensive contract

8. Colorado
13. Columbus

I guarantee you, Colorado and Columbus are on the no trade lists. Why? Because their massive caproom makes them prime candidates for a trade as you've deduced and it's a 130k-220k drop in net income to move to those teams. For a guy who'll never play hockey again, that's a big chunk of change. He's better off gambling and not putting teams like Toronto on the list in my opinion.
 
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Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
19,182
20,822
How does the no trade list work, practically speaking? Can a player update their list regularly throughout the year? Or do they only have to submit it like once a year or when asked by a GM?
 

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
29,392
12,810
South Mountain
For those that are expecting a Clarkson/Gusev for ___ trade, keep this in mind...

Clarkson has 16-team no trade list. Since his decision is simply tax arbitrage - I would assume his 14 teams are those with lowest state/provincial taxes:

1. Dallas
2. Nashville
3. Florida
4. Tampa Bay
5. Pittsburgh
6. Philadelphia
7. Arizona
8. Colorado
9. Chicago
10. Carolina
11. Detroit
12. St. Louis
13. Columbus
14. Boston

Of those teams, here is a list that could probably handle Gusev/Clarkson on their cap:

8. Colorado
10. Carolina
11. Detroit
13. Columbus

Of those teams, here is the list of could probably spare a young d-man on inexpensive contract

8. Colorado
13. Columbus

Clarkson doesn't need to relocate if traded. It's not like he is going to play for the new team.
 

Favin

Registered User
Jun 24, 2015
2,468
2,035
Toronto
I guarantee you, Colorado and Columbus are on the no trade lists. Why? Because their massive caproom makes them prime candidates for a trade as you've deduced and it's a 130k-220k drop in net income to move to those teams. For a guy who'll never play hockey again, that's a big chunk of change. He's better off gambling and not putting teams like Toronto on the list in my opinion.
Good point. I was looking simply at tax, but your game theory way is far more interesting.
 

Favin

Registered User
Jun 24, 2015
2,468
2,035
Toronto
How does the no trade list work, practically speaking? Can a player update their list regularly throughout the year? Or do they only have to submit it like once a year or when asked by a GM?
No more rolling lists - it is one-time, annual thing. So his contract has a date listed and they player would submit a list of teams every year by that date.
 
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DistantThunderRep

Registered User
Mar 8, 2018
19,940
16,810
For those that are expecting a Clarkson/Gusev for ___ trade, keep this in mind...

Clarkson has 16-team no trade list. Since his decision is simply tax arbitrage - I would assume his 14 teams are those with lowest state/provincial taxes:

1. Dallas
2. Nashville
3. Florida
4. Tampa Bay
5. Pittsburgh
6. Philadelphia
7. Arizona
8. Colorado
9. Chicago
10. Carolina
11. Detroit
12. St. Louis
13. Columbus
14. Boston

Of those teams, here is a list that could probably handle Gusev/Clarkson on their cap:

8. Colorado
10. Carolina
11. Detroit
13. Columbus

Of those teams, here is the list of could probably spare a young d-man on inexpensive contract

8. Colorado
13. Columbus

The insurance money is taxed in the location he lives, not the team that pays him out. So tax is irrelevant to him because its where he is currently living.
 

Favin

Registered User
Jun 24, 2015
2,468
2,035
Toronto
I thought it was the other way around? Meaning the insurance just pays out the player. Team isn't involved.
The insurance company would pay out to the team. The policy is written so that it can be owned only by whomever assumes the contract (and also so that one team cannot insure another teams player). Clarkson could have a policy himself, but that would normally be separate and expensive for a player. Teams have benefit of scale (ie, its cheaper to insure a dozen players than a dozen players insuring themselves).
 

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
29,392
12,810
South Mountain
True. He is firmly rooted in Ohio. But he still has to pay taxes wherever he ends up on the books.

It’s going to depend on the specific state laws, but generally if you’re not a resident of a state and not physically working in that state you’re usually not taxed there solely because your employer is located in that state.
 
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Favin

Registered User
Jun 24, 2015
2,468
2,035
Toronto
Why?
In phase 1, doesn't LV get instant cap relief?

Phase 2, while value needs to be worked out, it is rfa W for rfa W.

I get if you think you can get a better offer factoring in cap, but after past week, I'm not sure those few who have cap will fork over assets you want for NG.
(1) NYR does not have $8 million in cap space...they will be closer to $8 million over the cap once RFAs are signed.
(2) Vegas has five D-men on roster and your offer would leave them with 4 d-men (one of them being Brendan Smith....so more like 3.5 d-men)
(3) If NYR does this type of deal and signs Trouba, Lemieux, and DeAngelo...you would box yourselves out of being able to sign Gusev since you will be up against off-season 110% cap (except without any LTIR relief).
 

Favin

Registered User
Jun 24, 2015
2,468
2,035
Toronto
It’s going to depend on the specific state laws, but generally if you’re not a resident of a state and not physically working in that state you’re usually not taxed there solely because your employer is located in that state.
Its not where employer resides - it is where you earned your money. For active players, it is quite complicated and best for accountants to figure out. They have to pay in many states.
 
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Uncle Scrooge

Hockey Bettor
Nov 14, 2011
13,584
8,214
Helsinki
This is a much more complex situation than maybe people realize.

1) Vegas feel like they have a good team and they know what they have in each player. Because of the cap situation signing Gusev means trading a forward they like to make the room both cap-wise but also because Gusev needs a fair chance to succeed in a top 6 role. I don't think McPhee is comfortable doing that knowing what happened with Shipachyov and because he likes his top 6 as it is. Even though Gusev is the better player, doesn't change the fact he's unknown in the NHL. The risk is there that you're just screwing up what you have right now. Thus they're looking for trade options.

2) Gusev has tremendous potential, everyone who have seen him play the last couple years or realize how dominant he's become in the KHL must understand this. That includes GM's around the league. McPhee knows what Gusev could potentially do for a team, and he doesn't want to give him away for peanuts - especially to a team Vegas is competing with in the standings/and or playoffs. For example, getting back a 3rd round pick just to get something and potentially making one of your rivals significantly stronger isn't worth it. So to trade Gusev, Vegas is likely looking at the Eastern Conference teams AND a good return but teams are hesitant to give Vegas anything significant for a player who is unproven in the league and already wants significant money. Makes it a tough combination to come to an agreement what he's value is.

3) Trading Gusev to Eastern Conference team for a meh return has it's risks too. The team getting him can do whatever they want, there's always a chance SJ calls them and offers more than what they gave up. And before you know it, McPhee realizes Gusev ends up playing for their biggest rival (or someone else in the division/conference, just using SJ as an example). My point is, trading Gusev to any team in the league for a meh return simply isn't worth it UNLESS there's specific conditions like for example the team he ends up with can't trade Gusev to a team in the West and if they do they lose a 1st round pick to Vegas - or something like that. Means it'd be a pretty complex trade.

4) GM's around the league know Vegas don't have many options other than to trade him, so of course they want to take advantage of the situation and offer as little as possible.

5) Then there's even the Clarkson contract that could be in play. I mean, it really isn't as big of a deal as some people think, Vegas can ice a roster with him in the books, just means less roster flexibility in season. But unloading him is away to lessen some of that headache.

In conclusion there's probably a gap right now in offers and what Vegas is looking for/there's some complex trade options that could take time to materialize.

I believe someone out there has to be really confident in Gusev and deciding to go the whole 9 yards to make it happen. Meaning they give up something pretty significant for Vegas to go "alright, this is good enough". If this doesn't happen, Vegas may very well just let Gusev return to the KHL and get nothing. At least they know they didn't make any team out there stronger.

But - if you ask me, im pretty confident the former is what's going to happen. It's not often a player of Gusev's caliber is available like this. Especially after seeing how Panarin did, i think there should be plenty of interest.
 

Blackhawkswincup

RIP Fugu
Jun 24, 2007
187,576
21,091
Chicagoland
Perlini + Dahlstrom for Gusev

Hawks then trade AA and sign Gusev 2 yrs / 4M AAV

Gusev-Toews-Kane
Debrincat-Strome-Shaw
Kubalik-Dach-Saad
Caggiula-Kampf-Carpenter
 
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periferal

Registered User
Jul 5, 2007
28,905
16,272
The expansion draft rules for Vegas were an absolute joke. Think about it...If your franchise decided to do a rebuild you are much worse off than if you had no team at all and came in as an expansion team under the rules that Vegas had.

In the past year the Senators started a total rebuild and if EVERYTHING goes right for them they're probably at least 3-5 years away.

The rangers also started a total rebuild two seasons ago and almost everything has gone right for them since...And they're probably at least 2 years away from competing.

Vegas came in with NO TEAM, but with favorable expansion draft rules...Made the finals their 1st year. Wonder if in the next CBA teams try to negotiate in a "rebuild clause" where if they decide to rebuild they can trade in their entire roster and pick a player from the other 30 teams (Of course I'm joking about this. Just making the point that having no players seems to be better than having players and having to trade them off).



*On a side note...Still trying to understand how in the known universe that Florida left Marchessault unprotected. WTF???
 

Davegarri

Much Doge, Wow Moon
Jan 8, 2014
5,766
3,691
NJ
Vegas can probably do better than that for Gusev. Void for them right now is on RD, and I'm not sure Mueller displaces Merrill or Holden from their lineup.

It was a joke based on the Merrill and a 3rd meme
 
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