There seems to be varying opinions about how Las Vegas will do in their first year, but most people put them as a lottery team or below average at best. However, if Vegas makes the right decisions in terms of selecting some of the hidden gems available to them in the expansion draft, they can easily be a respectable team.
First off, I believe the best course of action is for Vegas to say **** off to all the teams offering them draft picks in exchange for not picking a player or two. I find it highly unlikely that Vegas will come out on the better end of any of those deals.
In particular, looking at the situation in Anaheim with both Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson available, I don't think Anaheim can offer up anything worthwhile. Vegas should be pouncing on Josh Manson, since his shot suppression abilities are off the charts. If Vegas accepts a simple 1st round pick or a 1st and a 2nd, that's just pure highway robbery by Anaheim. I don't want to get into draft pick values too much, but a late 1st is basically a crapshoot, never mind the fact that Vegas likely does not have a strong scouting stuff at the present moment. If a late 1st turns into Josh Manson, you should be jumping with joy. The only time I even consider a deal with Anaheim is if they offer both a 1st and Shea Theodore in exchange for not picking Manson. In other words, Vegas would get a 1st, Shea Theodore, and Vatanen instead of Josh Manson. That may seem like a hell of a package, but if Anaheim doesn't like it, then Vegas just goes on its happy way with Manson.
To construct Vegas' lineup, I used CapFriendly's Expansion Draft Tool (https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft) and OwnThePuck's Hero Charts (http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/). To evaluate it, I used OwnThePuck's Lineup Creator (can't seem to find the original link, but it was used in this article: https://theleafsnation.com/2017/05/12/offseason-fun-with-ownthepucks-lineup-creator/).
So here's the lineup that Vegas can ice if they ignore any deals with other clubs:
So, OwnThePuck's model predicts that Vegas can be a 110+ point team. Obviously, that's way too much to expect out of Vegas. Perhaps OwnThePuck's model is flawed (maybe expecting the same performance when low-usage players are given higher usage) or perhaps the Hero Charts that I used to select Vegas' players overvalue certain types of players. As well, all the players making up this team will be new, and largely unfamiliar with each other. New players, a new coach, and a new city mean that Vegas will likely not get off to a great start. However, if Vegas is able to persevere, they can be in a respectable position by the year's end. I think that reaching 90 points is definitely possible. The key factors are how well and quickly Vadim Shipyachov is able to adjust to the NHL game and how smart George McPhee is in his selections and trades in order to secure a lineup like the one I made to begin with.
Since there is no data available for Vegas' KHL superstar signing Vadim Shipachyov, I used Sam Gagner to approximate Shipachyov's impact. Shipachyov is regarded as a potent scorer with strong playmaking abilities, while facing some issues with his all-around game. As such, Gagner is a decent substitute, since he has strong offensive statistics, but poor shot suppression as Shipachyov will likely produce. I think it is definitely reasonable to say that Shipachyov, who is one of the KHL's best players, will have at least a 2016/17 Gagner-like impact. However, if you prefer a different substitute, I've used Jason Spezza, Logan Couture, and Kevin Hayes, who are all also decent comparables, as well.
Substitute: CF% / GF% / Expected Points/82 Gms
Spezza: 57.2% / 57.7% / 112.2
Couture: 56.8% / 57.4% / 111.1
Hayes: 56.7% / 57.4% / 111.0
The goaltending cannot be accounted for in the Lineup Creator tool, so we can say that the predictions assume that the given lineup has average goaltending. With Marc-Andre Fleury, Petr Mrazek, and Joonas Korpisalo on the lineup, it's safe to say that Vegas will receive at least average goaltending.
My lineup is compliant with the salary cap, with plenty ($12 million given the confirmed $75 million cap) of space available. After Shipyachov's contract is accounted for, Vegas still has $7.5 million to play with, putting them in a very good position.
Vegas' potential is reinforced when you consider the trade chips and free agency options they have available. The on-ice lineup I used in the Lineup Creator above still leaves Erik Condra, Seth Griffith, Mikhail Grigorenko, Matt Dumba, Kevin Connauton, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Frederik Claesson, Nate Schmidt, Linus Ullmark, and one of Petr Mrazek or Joonas Korpisalo on the bench. These extras are probably enough to acquire another strong 2nd liner (perhaps on the weak right wing) and, maybe, if packaged with one of the defensemen in the lineup, enough to acquire a true first pairing defenseman. Having Matt Dumba as a trade chip is very enticing.
Selecting a player from Minnesota was especially challenging for me, not just between Matt Dumba and Marco Scandella, but Eric Staal, who had a very good rebound year, as well. I went with Dumba because he is significantly younger. If Vegas picked Staal and he had a similar year next year, they could be looking at an even stronger team in the short term. However, I've heard that Staal somewhat gave up in his last years in Carolina due to the poor teams they iced and for that reason I'm not sure if he is the best pick for Vegas. If Staal is willing to work in Vegas though, maybe they could select him and Calvin DeHaan from the New York Islanders instead of Ryan Strome due to the increased centre depth. In this case, Vegas could maybe get the rumoured 1st round draft pick from New York. The lineup would then look like this:
In this case, the lineup is starting to look pretty good, not just in terms of hidden gems, but also in terms of the typical perception of these players. DeHaan is not included on-ice because his impact is not as strong as any of Dan Hamhuis, Brayden McNabb, or David Schlemko on the left side. DeHaan would likely be used as a trade chip in this case.
Now, if we look at an even more positive scenario, where Vegas is able to sign top free agent TJ Oshie, and the Lineup Creator tool projects Vegas to be pretty much the Stanley Cup favourite (59.2 GF% is insane):
Vegas could maybe even select an NHL-ready forward at the 2017 draft if they offered a package like #6 + #15 (New York) + #24 (Columbus) for #2 (Philadelphia). This is based on the rumoured deals Vegas is believed to be looking at.
Anyway, Vegas fans, I think you are in for some watchable hockey to say the least. If McPhee and the rest of Vegas management realizes what they have and makes some smart decisions, even the postseason is not out of the question.
First off, I believe the best course of action is for Vegas to say **** off to all the teams offering them draft picks in exchange for not picking a player or two. I find it highly unlikely that Vegas will come out on the better end of any of those deals.
In particular, looking at the situation in Anaheim with both Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson available, I don't think Anaheim can offer up anything worthwhile. Vegas should be pouncing on Josh Manson, since his shot suppression abilities are off the charts. If Vegas accepts a simple 1st round pick or a 1st and a 2nd, that's just pure highway robbery by Anaheim. I don't want to get into draft pick values too much, but a late 1st is basically a crapshoot, never mind the fact that Vegas likely does not have a strong scouting stuff at the present moment. If a late 1st turns into Josh Manson, you should be jumping with joy. The only time I even consider a deal with Anaheim is if they offer both a 1st and Shea Theodore in exchange for not picking Manson. In other words, Vegas would get a 1st, Shea Theodore, and Vatanen instead of Josh Manson. That may seem like a hell of a package, but if Anaheim doesn't like it, then Vegas just goes on its happy way with Manson.
To construct Vegas' lineup, I used CapFriendly's Expansion Draft Tool (https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft) and OwnThePuck's Hero Charts (http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/). To evaluate it, I used OwnThePuck's Lineup Creator (can't seem to find the original link, but it was used in this article: https://theleafsnation.com/2017/05/12/offseason-fun-with-ownthepucks-lineup-creator/).
So here's the lineup that Vegas can ice if they ignore any deals with other clubs:
So, OwnThePuck's model predicts that Vegas can be a 110+ point team. Obviously, that's way too much to expect out of Vegas. Perhaps OwnThePuck's model is flawed (maybe expecting the same performance when low-usage players are given higher usage) or perhaps the Hero Charts that I used to select Vegas' players overvalue certain types of players. As well, all the players making up this team will be new, and largely unfamiliar with each other. New players, a new coach, and a new city mean that Vegas will likely not get off to a great start. However, if Vegas is able to persevere, they can be in a respectable position by the year's end. I think that reaching 90 points is definitely possible. The key factors are how well and quickly Vadim Shipyachov is able to adjust to the NHL game and how smart George McPhee is in his selections and trades in order to secure a lineup like the one I made to begin with.
Since there is no data available for Vegas' KHL superstar signing Vadim Shipachyov, I used Sam Gagner to approximate Shipachyov's impact. Shipachyov is regarded as a potent scorer with strong playmaking abilities, while facing some issues with his all-around game. As such, Gagner is a decent substitute, since he has strong offensive statistics, but poor shot suppression as Shipachyov will likely produce. I think it is definitely reasonable to say that Shipachyov, who is one of the KHL's best players, will have at least a 2016/17 Gagner-like impact. However, if you prefer a different substitute, I've used Jason Spezza, Logan Couture, and Kevin Hayes, who are all also decent comparables, as well.
Substitute: CF% / GF% / Expected Points/82 Gms
Spezza: 57.2% / 57.7% / 112.2
Couture: 56.8% / 57.4% / 111.1
Hayes: 56.7% / 57.4% / 111.0
The goaltending cannot be accounted for in the Lineup Creator tool, so we can say that the predictions assume that the given lineup has average goaltending. With Marc-Andre Fleury, Petr Mrazek, and Joonas Korpisalo on the lineup, it's safe to say that Vegas will receive at least average goaltending.
My lineup is compliant with the salary cap, with plenty ($12 million given the confirmed $75 million cap) of space available. After Shipyachov's contract is accounted for, Vegas still has $7.5 million to play with, putting them in a very good position.
Vegas' potential is reinforced when you consider the trade chips and free agency options they have available. The on-ice lineup I used in the Lineup Creator above still leaves Erik Condra, Seth Griffith, Mikhail Grigorenko, Matt Dumba, Kevin Connauton, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Frederik Claesson, Nate Schmidt, Linus Ullmark, and one of Petr Mrazek or Joonas Korpisalo on the bench. These extras are probably enough to acquire another strong 2nd liner (perhaps on the weak right wing) and, maybe, if packaged with one of the defensemen in the lineup, enough to acquire a true first pairing defenseman. Having Matt Dumba as a trade chip is very enticing.
Selecting a player from Minnesota was especially challenging for me, not just between Matt Dumba and Marco Scandella, but Eric Staal, who had a very good rebound year, as well. I went with Dumba because he is significantly younger. If Vegas picked Staal and he had a similar year next year, they could be looking at an even stronger team in the short term. However, I've heard that Staal somewhat gave up in his last years in Carolina due to the poor teams they iced and for that reason I'm not sure if he is the best pick for Vegas. If Staal is willing to work in Vegas though, maybe they could select him and Calvin DeHaan from the New York Islanders instead of Ryan Strome due to the increased centre depth. In this case, Vegas could maybe get the rumoured 1st round draft pick from New York. The lineup would then look like this:
In this case, the lineup is starting to look pretty good, not just in terms of hidden gems, but also in terms of the typical perception of these players. DeHaan is not included on-ice because his impact is not as strong as any of Dan Hamhuis, Brayden McNabb, or David Schlemko on the left side. DeHaan would likely be used as a trade chip in this case.
Now, if we look at an even more positive scenario, where Vegas is able to sign top free agent TJ Oshie, and the Lineup Creator tool projects Vegas to be pretty much the Stanley Cup favourite (59.2 GF% is insane):
Vegas could maybe even select an NHL-ready forward at the 2017 draft if they offered a package like #6 + #15 (New York) + #24 (Columbus) for #2 (Philadelphia). This is based on the rumoured deals Vegas is believed to be looking at.
Anyway, Vegas fans, I think you are in for some watchable hockey to say the least. If McPhee and the rest of Vegas management realizes what they have and makes some smart decisions, even the postseason is not out of the question.
