Vancouver Playoff Odds

[RIP Boogaard]

First thread. In no way am I asking for advice, or encouraging gambling. Betting site Bovada (Formerly Bodog) has the odds of Vancouver making the playoffs at 50/50. What are your thoughts on that? It seems like Vegas is expecting a big bounce back. Where would you put your money?

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[Vankiller Whale]

Vegas isn't necessarily expecting a bounce back, they're expecting people to expect a bounce back.

 

[nameless1]

Right now...
The team is about a bubble team...
At best...
So 50-50 is about right.
However...
One or two injuries later...
And it will all go down a can.
The team has absolutely no depth...
So there are a lot of variables.
It could be a Colorado situation...
Or it could be more of the same.

 

[RIP Boogaard]

Vegas isn't necessarily expecting a bounce back, they're expecting people to expect a bounce back.

Good point.

 

[MegaSpiderman66]

I guess 50/50 is a good a guess as any. With all the changes this off season it's almost impossible to say where they will exactly end up. I have a feeling this club either takes off and plays great, or crashes and burns and mcdavid becomes all the talk.

 

[RIP Boogaard]

I guess 50/50 is a good a guess as any. With all the changes this off season it's almost impossible to say where they will exactly end up. I have a feeling this club either takes off and plays great, or crashes and burns and mcdavid becomes all the talk.

That is why I thought it was interesting. It would be really tough for me to put odds on it. So many variables. So many moving pieces.

 

[coastal_nuck]

Don't think we'll make it this year. The rest of the teams in the conference have either improved or are likely to continue their strong play from the prior year. In no particular order:

1. LA
2. Anaheim
3. San jose
4. Chicago
5. Dallas
6. Colorado
7. Minnesota
8. St. Louis

The only one I see being bumped is potentially Minnesota.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I would need 150:1 odds to consider putting a bet.

 

[VanillaCoke]

With the current roster I'd say about 20% chance they make the playoffs.

 

[RandV]

Don't think we'll make it this year. The rest of the teams in the conference have either improved or are likely to continue their strong play from the prior year. In no particular order:

1. LA
2. Anaheim
3. San jose
4. Chicago
5. Dallas
6. Colorado
7. Minnesota
8. St. Louis

The only one I see being bumped is potentially Minnesota.

On paper yes but something always goes wrong for someone. It's very rare that the exact same 8 teams make it to the playoffs from one year to the next... is there even an example of this happening?

That's where you would expect Vancouver to slip in. Higher chance at being the #9/10 team, ready to step back in should one of last seasons top 8 stumble.

 

[coastal_nuck]

On paper yes but something always goes wrong for someone. It's very rare that the exact same 8 teams make it to the playoffs from one year to the next... is there even an example of this happening?

That's where you would expect Vancouver to slip in. Higher chance at being the #9/10 team, ready to step back in should one of last seasons top 8 stumble.

Agreed but you have to apply the same thinking to us as well. Can't have it both ways. I think we're more than likely to stumble than challenge this year. Just personal opinion anyway.

 

[Sharpshooter]

On paper yes but something always goes wrong for someone. It's very rare that the exact same 8 teams make it to the playoffs from one year to the next... is there even an example of this happening?

That's where you would expect Vancouver to slip in. Higher chance at being the #9/10 team, ready to step back in should one of last seasons top 8 stumble.

I think most of those teams are trending upwards, whereas the Canucks roster is a hodge-podge of stop-gap players. I suspect they could sneak into the last spot, should things go very awry for Minny or other bottom seeded projected teams, but I don't the Nucks making the playoffs this or next season. They could slip in though...and then get booted out like some kid with a fake ID at a club. Even if they sneak in, they're playoff pretenders, not contenders. I don't believe you think they're contenders either fyi.

I think that list is realistic though.

Edit - No way STL finishes below Minny.

 

[EXTRAS]

On paper yes but something always goes wrong for someone. It's very rare that the exact same 8 teams make it to the playoffs from one year to the next... is there even an example of this happening?

That's where you would expect Vancouver to slip in. Higher chance at being the #9/10 team, ready to step back in should one of last seasons top 8 stumble.

This is kinda assuming we are the #9 team. Remember, we had the worst record inthe league in 2014.

Sure, a team could fall, but edmontons scoring could finally begin firing on all cylinders, or nashvilles defense could stonewall everyone.

I think it takes a miracle for us to get in this season - thank god. Thank god cuz we couldn't do any damage in theplayoffs anyway, and wecould usea top5 draft pick.

Sure, Benning added vrbata and miller, but those guys are stop gaps.

It's funny, cuz in the east the canucks would not only have a chance at the playoffs, but may be able to get through a few rounds. Does anyone remember the last time one conference seemed to be so much stronger than the other? The west seems to be filled with well built teams, while the east has Boston who people may consider a legitimately all around good team.

 

[NoShowWilly]

I would need 150:1 odds to consider putting a bet.

to consider it? We aren't talking about winning the cup here.

 

[KeninsFan]

On paper yes but something always goes wrong for someone. It's very rare that the exact same 8 teams make it to the playoffs from one year to the next... is there even an example of this happening?

That's where you would expect Vancouver to slip in. Higher chance at being the #9/10 team, ready to step back in should one of last seasons top 8 stumble.

We're not the only bubble team competing though. NSH with a full season of Rinne are a bubble team and the Coyotes are always there.

50/50 isn't what I would put our odds at either, it seems like what VKW was alluding to.

 

[Habitat]

Why does everyone think san jose is an auto lock? They lose boyle. They added no one this year. Lost havlat and thorton/marlueau aint getting younger.

 

[NYVanfan]

Dallas is hardly a lock either

I would say its very good money to say the Canucks finish behind LA, Anaheim, Chicago, St. Louis

then a pretty good bet they're behind San Jose & Colorado

then it's debatable that they're behind Dallas & Minny


so I's say most likely finish range is 7-10

 

[y2kcanucks]

to consider it? We aren't talking about winning the cup here.

I'm shrewd with my money. Only place bets when it's worth it. Also this is a reflection of how much I really don't see this team making the playoffs.

 

[NYVanfan]

I'm shrewd with my money. Only place bets when it's worth it. Also this is a reflection of how much I really don't see this team making the playoffs.

hell, ill give you $1 if they miss to your $75 if they make it -- doubling your value

 

[Dead Cat Bounce]

Don't think we'll make it this year. The rest of the teams in the conference have either improved or are likely to continue their strong play from the prior year. In no particular order:

1. LA
2. Anaheim
3. San jose
4. Chicago
5. Dallas
6. Colorado
7. Minnesota
8. St. Louis

The only one I see being bumped is potentially Minnesota.

Minnesota is much better by replacing Heatley with Vanek. (and progression of their young talent),

The most vulnerable teams are SJ (who knows what's going on there?) and Colorado (poor underlying numbers).

If the Canucks win 5 more games they should be in the hunt but it won't be easy.

 

[deckercky]

I'd bet against Vancouver if given 50/50 odds. I see Vancouver having about a 30% chance of making it. Vancouver needs to beat San Jose, or be better than 3 of Dallas, Colorado, Minnesota and Nashville (eg, take wildcard from a bubble central team).

It's doable. Not likely, but not unrealistic to happen by any means. Central teams will have a brutal time against each other, and the bubble teams all have some pretty big flaws in their lineup that could cause them to fall out with a bad luck streak and/or some key injuries.

 

[Zarpan]

50/50 is what I had in mind before opening this thread, although I'd probably be more likely to commit money to not making the playoffs if I had to choose at those odds.

One thing in Vancouver's favour is that shooting percentage regression to the mean should more than offset the weaker roster on paper. A lot will depend on luck in avoiding injuries, some players getting their heads screwed on correctly and the younger players continuing to develop.

 

[me2]

Dallas is hardly a lock either

I would say its very good money to say the Canucks finish behind LA, Anaheim, Chicago, St. Louis

then a pretty good bet they're behind San Jose & Colorado

then it's debatable that they're behind Dallas & Minny


so I's say most likely finish range is 7-10

If Lehtonen gets injured they have to fallback to the goalie that turned the 3rd highest scoring team in the league into one that finished 3rd last.

 

[Addison Rae]

I don't see us making it, but if anyone's due for a regression it's Colorado.

 

[discordant concord]

Basically, it's possible but unlikely. Look at the other rosters. We just don't have their depth.

Miller will need to have a great season and recieve Vezina consideration. Think .920, 2.25 GAA, regardless of how many games Lack gets. Vrbata and one of Burrows/Kassian/Jensen will need to combine for about 50 goals. Bonino will need to score 45-50 points. Sedins need to combine for 130 points minimum.

Our penalty kill will take a hit, so our PP will need to improve. We'll need one of our D-man to score about 12 goals or so.

If all else fails, maybe a Spezza, Parise, or Duchene type player on another team is injured for 30-50 games or so...