Prospect Info: Vancouver Canucks Top 25 Prospects 2015 - #17

[Proto]

Your typical 3-5th round type pick has a ~10% chance of playing > 200 NHL games. If we just assume a linear value to these picks -- and, as most of them happened in the last ~12 months, that's probably a fair assumption -- they probably almost all eclipse Jensen's expected NHL games played at this point. Based on his meagre AHL production (0.41 PPG) from 20-22, Jensen has an NHL games-played expectancy of around 65-70 games, according to some work Josh Weissbock has done. There's a huge variance, of course, but an AHL forward's PPG < 23 gives about 17 NHL games player per 0.1 PPG.

I suspect Jensen might get a bit more than that because of upcoming expansion (if he sticks it out in North America), but right now he looks like your classic bust.

Tryamkin's size and skating alone probably give him at least a 15% chance of becoming a 6/7 defenseman like Andrew Alberts or whathaveyou. Jasek looks underrated in the draft, too.

I'm likely overstating my case against Jensen, but I've basically called it quits on him as a prospect. I'm out. In a few years I won't even remember if he's Hard Jay or Soft Jay.

 

[m9]

Jensen is certainly teetering on the brink of busting out entirely...

But at this point in the prospect polls, we're talking about a slate of guys who will realistically speaking, be lucky to just manage effective AHL careers...much less play some NHL games and at times look even slightly promising as Jensen has at times.

So...in a battle of "longshot fringe prospect" vs "failing top prospect", i'll still go with Jensen here...but it's pretty easy to be wrong even if you could choose both.

Tryamkin, Pedan, Zhukenov, etc are all guys that we spent 3rd or 4th rounders on within the last year+. I would have been very happy dealing Jensen for a 3rd at the draft, fine with a 4th, but anything lower I keep him around. So rating 3rd/4th round value guys ahead of him seems right, but he will still slot in over the next tier I would imagine. I actually think the board has nailed his spot perfectly, as long as he slides in next.

 

[Siludin]

Jensen is certainly teetering on the brink of busting out entirely...

But at this point in the prospect polls, we're talking about a slate of guys who will realistically speaking, be lucky to just manage effective AHL careers...much less play some NHL games and at times look even slightly promising as Jensen has at times.

So...in a battle of "longshot fringe prospect" vs "failing top prospect", i'll still go with Jensen here...but it's pretty easy to be wrong even if you could choose both.

Jasek is the youngest player in our system and already plays in the top Czech league against men. I think the AHL is a bare minimum at this point.

 

[MS]

Jensen is a bust. Full stop.

Guy can't produce in the AHL, has been a healthy scratch at that level, and has an abysmal three-zone game and motor.

If you could get a 7th rounder for him right now, you take it and run. If his contract had been up this summer, we probably let him walk back to Europe.

 

[turkulad]

Last year for Jensen to really turn it up. That being said, he still has a year left and is without a doubt given every opportunity to finally take flight. Next year he's either a NHL roster player or off to Europe.

 

[Diogenes92]

Some people here have probably never seen Tryamkin play, yet they vote him anyways...

 

[denkiteki]

Some people here have probably never seen Tryamkin play, yet they vote him anyways...

Exactly... i wonder how many are voting just bases on stats. I doubt there's really that many who have watched KHL games at all beside highlights. With other prospect you could at least argue that more people have seen them due to CHL being on sportsnet and some members really follow the draft but KHL? I really doubt more than a handful of people in the forum watched any KHL games last season.

I'm not saying Jensen is a great prospect or even arguing against the argument of him being a bust (cause all signs points toward that direction, tho i'm sure the organization hasn't given up on him yet, next year likely his make or break year) but at the very least we've seen what he can do and he does show signs (tho not often enough) of being an impact player.

Realistically Jensen is probably dropping because he isn't a "new toy" and everyone in the forum is bored of him not producing as expected so he's dropping way lower than he should. Kinda like i didn't understand how Cassel was so low last year (which i did post arguing about as well lol).

 

[Hammer79]

I think if Jensen makes the NHL, it will be as a bottom 6 forward. He has the skill and size to hold down a bottom 6 spot, but I'm no longer sold on the idea of him cracking the top 6 one day. He needs to dominate offensively at the AHL level to be a legit NHL top 6 forward, but he doesn't. We drafted him for his top 6 upside, not because we thought he'd make it as a grinder. That's why he's dropped this far. Based on his performance, I think it's deserved.

Tryamkin, Jasek then Jensen for me.

 

[MS]

Exactly... i wonder how many are voting just bases on stats. I doubt there's really that many who have watched KHL games at all beside highlights. With other prospect you could at least argue that more people have seen them due to CHL being on sportsnet and some members really follow the draft but KHL? I really doubt more than a handful of people in the forum watched any KHL games last season.

I'm not saying Jensen is a great prospect or even arguing against the argument of him being a bust (cause all signs points toward that direction, tho i'm sure the organization hasn't given up on him yet, next year likely his make or break year) but at the very least we've seen what he can do and he does show signs (tho not often enough) of being an impact player.

Realistically Jensen is probably dropping because he isn't a "new toy" and everyone in the forum is bored of him not producing as expected so he's dropping way lower than he should. Kinda like i didn't understand how Cassel was so low last year (which i did post arguing about as well lol).

Jensen is dropping because he's a bad player in the AHL in his 3rd full year playing against men. If he'd scored 25-30 goals in Utica last year and showed defensive improvement, he'd still be ranked highly.

Save for one brief 15-game stint in 13-14, he's been a dog in the AHL. Can't score, absolutely hopeless defensively. His development has flatlined since he was 18-19.

 

[Intoewsables]

at this point we're looking at the dregs. 5-10%ers, maybe lower. thats about where jensen falls into as a 23 yo who can't make an impact at the AHL level

that said, unless you're like me and of the mindset that a guy like jasek is/was seriously undervalued in this last draft (thus why i voted for him), there's really not much separating jensen's probability of becoming a 4th line quality player and tryamkin being a 6/7. flip a coin or something

I generally agree with this, but Tryamkin's going to get more of an opportunity as a 6/7 than Jensen would as a 4th line scorer in all likelihood. If Jensen can't hack it as a top-9 guy in the NHL -- and I don't have much faith that he will -- odds are he's not going to get a shot with an NHL team.

Aside from a random hot streak and being spoonfed time with the Sedins, nothing Jensen's done since coming over from Sweden really suggests that he's any more than a middling AHLer. Even if they're long shots, at least some of the other guys left on the board have the potential to surprise, IMO.

 

[Ho Borvat]

Went with the Big Mac, Mackenzie Stewart.

(Mainly because... well... ummm.... I donno tbh)

 

[TheWanderer]

Tryamkin, Pedan, Zhukenov, etc are all guys that we spent 3rd or 4th rounders on within the last year+. I would have been very happy dealing Jensen for a 3rd at the draft, fine with a 4th, but anything lower I keep him around. So rating 3rd/4th round value guys ahead of him seems right, but he will still slot in over the next tier I would imagine. I actually think the board has nailed his spot perfectly, as long as he slides in next.

Simple way to put it: I would not trade any of the prospects we have voted above Jensen, for Jensen...

I wouldn't trade Tryamkin, Zhukenov, or Jasek for Jensen either.

 

[Nucker101]

Simple way to put it: I would not trade any of the prospects we have voted above Jensen, for Jensen...

I wouldn't trade Tryamkin, Zhukenov, or Jasek for Jensen either.

Yup, that's how people need to be looking at this instead of choosing the more "proven prospect". I don't really care for a guy who's progress has stalled with him being a depth AHL player.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

At this point I'm just picking some guys with long shot potential. Jensen isn't one of those guys.

There's still about 5 players I'll pick before him... and even then I'll be debating between him and Blomstrand.

 

[Nuckles]

Next poll is up: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1932421