Proto
Registered User
- Jan 30, 2010
- 11,523
- 1
Your typical 3-5th round type pick has a ~10% chance of playing > 200 NHL games. If we just assume a linear value to these picks -- and, as most of them happened in the last ~12 months, that's probably a fair assumption -- they probably almost all eclipse Jensen's expected NHL games played at this point. Based on his meagre AHL production (0.41 PPG) from 20-22, Jensen has an NHL games-played expectancy of around 65-70 games, according to some work Josh Weissbock has done. There's a huge variance, of course, but an AHL forward's PPG < 23 gives about 17 NHL games player per 0.1 PPG.
I suspect Jensen might get a bit more than that because of upcoming expansion (if he sticks it out in North America), but right now he looks like your classic bust.
Tryamkin's size and skating alone probably give him at least a 15% chance of becoming a 6/7 defenseman like Andrew Alberts or whathaveyou. Jasek looks underrated in the draft, too.
I'm likely overstating my case against Jensen, but I've basically called it quits on him as a prospect. I'm out. In a few years I won't even remember if he's Hard Jay or Soft Jay.
I suspect Jensen might get a bit more than that because of upcoming expansion (if he sticks it out in North America), but right now he looks like your classic bust.
Tryamkin's size and skating alone probably give him at least a 15% chance of becoming a 6/7 defenseman like Andrew Alberts or whathaveyou. Jasek looks underrated in the draft, too.
I'm likely overstating my case against Jensen, but I've basically called it quits on him as a prospect. I'm out. In a few years I won't even remember if he's Hard Jay or Soft Jay.