Vancouver Canucks Look Better This Year - But It is the Same

[canuckfan75]

for those of you sad because it looks like the Canucks are not going to get a top 10 pick do not fear it is a mirage there is no improvement. Thanks to the great Elias Pettersson it just looks and feels better.

Here is the Canucks record at the All Star Break over the last 4 years

2015 - Made Playoffs

2016 - 51 games - 52 pts - drafted 5th overall - Oli Joulevi

2017 - 51 games - 52pts - drafted 5th overall - Elias Pettersson

2018 - 52 games - 48 pts - drafted 7th overall - Quinn Hughes

2019 - 51 games - 52 pts - drafting ??????

so as you can see everything fell apart after the All- Star game - when the intensity ramps up and and everyone is fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot and for the teams out of the running a job

Click to read more...

 

[Siludin]

So what was the record in 2015 at the all-star break?

Also why would you hold every other factor in the league constant when you're extrapolating something so specific? (divisional standings, individual player performances, injuries, etc)

 

[canuckfan75]

45 games and 53 pts in the 2015 season

 

[4Twenty]

So what was the record in 2015 at the all-star break?

Also why would you hold every other factor in the league constant when you're extrapolating something so specific? (divisional standings, individual player performances, injuries, etc)

61 points in 51 games in 2015.

61 points in 51 games the previous season under Tortorella.

Why use an arbitrary marker like the All-Star Break, when you can just look at their record with the exact same games played.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Posted this in another thread, but very applicable to this one:

Here is some context to the Canucks season:

2019: 52 points, 147gf, 161ga, 9 points up on last place, tied for a playoff spot
2018: 48 points, 135gf, 164ga, 15 points up on last place, 10 points out of a playoff spot
2017: 52 points, 120gf, 144ga, 24 points up on last place, 5 points out of a playoff spot
2016: 52 points, 123gf, 141ga, 5 points out of last place, 6 points out of a playoff spot


So what conclusions can we derive from this? Well, our offense is certainly better. I think we can all agree on that...Pettersson, Boeser, and Horvat are having very strong seasons carrying this team. Our defense is still quite bad. It's worse than the two seasons we finished bottom 3 in the league.

Teams around the Canucks have gotten worse, but the teams at the very bottom of the standings have improved.

Now, let's look at some analytics (note: for previous seasons these numbers are based on all 82 games):

2019: CF%: 47.13; xGF%: 46.01; PDO: 100.35; xGF/60: 2.09
2018: CF%: 47.68; xGF%: 46.57; PDO: 99.36; xGF/60: 2.10
2017: CF%: 47.96; xGF%: 45.71; PDO: 99.43; xGF/60: 2.01
2016: CF%: 47.21; xGF%: 44.65; PDO: 99.4; xGF/60: 1.96

Not at all out of line with the previous seasons.

Simply put: people claiming this team is trending in the right direction and trending up are flat out wrong. Our offense has increased ever so slightly, though our expected goals is in line with last year (still a slight improvement on 2016 and 2017). Our defense is bad. Our puck possession is still very bad.

The Canucks team shooting% is 8.66%, which ranks 9th in the NHL. Do they have elite shooters? Or are the Canucks just lucky this year with some of their offense?

For more context:

2019: 8.66% (9th)
2018: 7.21% (25th)
2017: 7.01% (23rd)
2016: 6.88% (25th)

It looks to me like the Canucks have been held above water by a significant increase in their team sh%, which I don't think is sustainable. Part of this can be attributed to Elias Pettersson who is shooting an unsustainble 28%. And yet, despite that the Canucks are still at the same points total they had in 2017 and 2016 where, in both years, the Canucks finished bottom 3.

Statistical anomalies do happen, so there are no guarantees that this team regresses to the mean in the final 31 games; however, if I were putting money I would certainly not bet that the Canucks would make the playoffs. This does seem to be a weird year where everyone around the Canucks are losing as well though. Looking forward to next year, I can see a big correction here barring any drastic changes to the team. That could be enough to get Benning fired. Ownership sees this year and thinks there's hope because they were playing meaningful games in January, while next year the team gets off to a slow start and looks like they're out of it because they statistically regressed, and that could be the final nail in the coffin for this incompetent management regime.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Posted this in another thread, but very applicable to this one:

Here is some context to the Canucks season:

2019: 52 points, 147gf, 161ga, 9 points up on last place, tied for a playoff spot
2018: 48 points, 135gf, 164ga, 15 points up on last place, 10 points out of a playoff spot
2017: 52 points, 120gf, 144ga, 24 points up on last place, 5 points out of a playoff spot
2016: 52 points, 123gf, 141ga, 5 points out of last place, 6 points out of a playoff spot


So what conclusions can we derive from this? Well, our offense is certainly better. I think we can all agree on that...Pettersson, Boeser, and Horvat are having very strong seasons carrying this team. Our defense is still quite bad. It's worse than the two seasons we finished bottom 3 in the league.

Teams around the Canucks have gotten worse, but the teams at the very bottom of the standings have improved.

Now, let's look at some analytics (note: for previous seasons these numbers are based on all 82 games):

2019: CF%: 47.13; xGF%: 46.01; PDO: 100.35; xGF/60: 2.09
2018: CF%: 47.68; xGF%: 46.57; PDO: 99.36; xGF/60: 2.10
2017: CF%: 47.96; xGF%: 45.71; PDO: 99.43; xGF/60: 2.01
2016: CF%: 47.21; xGF%: 44.65; PDO: 99.4; xGF/60: 1.96

Not at all out of line with the previous seasons.

Simply put: people claiming this team is trending in the right direction and trending up are flat out wrong. Our offense has increased ever so slightly, though our expected goals is in line with last year (still a slight improvement on 2016 and 2017). Our defense is bad. Our puck possession is still very bad.

The Canucks team shooting% is 8.66%, which ranks 9th in the NHL. Do they have elite shooters? Or are the Canucks just lucky this year with some of their offense?

For more context:

2019: 8.66% (9th)
2018: 7.21% (25th)
2017: 7.01% (23rd)
2016: 6.88% (25th)

It looks to me like the Canucks have been held above water by a significant increase in their team sh%, which I don't think is sustainable. Part of this can be attributed to Elias Pettersson who is shooting an unsustainble 28%. And yet, despite that the Canucks are still at the same points total they had in 2017 and 2016 where, in both years, the Canucks finished bottom 3.

Statistical anomalies do happen, so there are no guarantees that this team regresses to the mean in the final 31 games; however, if I were putting money I would certainly not bet that the Canucks would make the playoffs. This does seem to be a weird year where everyone around the Canucks are losing as well though. Looking forward to next year, I can see a big correction here barring any drastic changes to the team. That could be enough to get Benning fired. Ownership sees this year and thinks there's hope because they were playing meaningful games in January, while next year the team gets off to a slow start and looks like they're out of it because they statistically regressed, and that could be the final nail in the coffin for this incompetent management regime.

So you think that the team is going to regress at the start of next season..The whole young group of core players (including Hughes) is going to hit the wall?..

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

The team hasn't improved, the west just got worse. Anyways, this team would be near the bottom of the standings if it weren't for Markstrom.

 

[y2kcanucks]

So you think that the team is going to regress at the start of next season..The whole young group of core players (including Hughes) is going to hit the wall?..

I think that regression could start at any moment and the team could very well flame out the rest of this season, otherwise yes. I do think the team falls back down next season. Elias Pettersson is not going to continue shooting at a 28% clip for the rest of his career.

 

[82Ninety42011]

So there is hope we still wind up with one of Hughes or Kakko yippy !! There is hope still yet !!

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

The team hasn't improved, the west just got worse. Anyways, this team would be near the bottom of the standings if it weren't for Markstrom.

I don't get these..'If it wasn't for Markstrom (or EP) we would suck..?..'......Last time I looked, they played for the Canucks..Were no different than other teams in the league..take price off of the Habs,or Kane off of the Hawks..?

 

[Shareefruck]

Still though, I have a hard time imagining a similarly fortuitous end-of-the-year tailspin with Pettersson around. Probably wouldn't have happened last year without the Boeser injury either.

 

[Fire Benning]

Canucks didn't get better, the bubble of the western conference just got worse.

 

[4Twenty]

I don't get these..'If it wasn't for Markstrom (or EP) we would suck..?..'......Last time I looked, they played for the Canucks..Were no different than other teams in the league..take price off of the Habs,or Kane off of the Hawks..?

It's pretty easy to get if you try.

Markstrom is playing at the highest level of his career over that past 6 weeks yet still the Canucks are only 1 point over the mean nothing .500 level. If Markstrom hadn't been playing out of his mind the last 20 or so games and was even just average, we're probably talking about a team even closer to the bottom of the league. Even with this level, they're only 9 points clear of last place which is the same gap they're away from a divisional place.

The point of this whole thread is that while people are talking up that they're "in the race", they're really no different than previous years and context and perspective is required if you're using being in the race as a means to call them "improved".

That said, I think they're improved and it's nice to see some progress, and it's definitely better that Markstrom's gotten hot than not, but like the last few games, they've played badly and won, and last night seemed like luck catching up to itself.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

I don't get these..'If it wasn't for Markstrom (or EP) we would suck..?..'......Last time I looked, they played for the Canucks..Were no different than other teams in the league..take price off of the Habs,or Kane off of the Hawks..?

Even with Ep and Markstrom the Canucks have a similar records to Canucks teams that had the worst record the past three seasons. I'd be surprised if Markstrom can keep up his numbers in front of this defence. When he does not play like a top 10 goalie this team Loses.

Some teams can have their best players removed and still be very good. While other teams can have the best player in the game and still suck. That's the difference between a good team and a team being held up by a superstar.

 

[Fire Benning]

I don't get these..'If it wasn't for Markstrom (or EP) we would suck..?..'......Last time I looked, they played for the Canucks..Were no different than other teams in the league..take price off of the Habs,or Kane off of the Hawks..?

Not being carried but 1 or 2 great players is what separates good teams from elite teams.

Tampa didn't have their starting goalie for 15 games and went 12-3, Leafs missed Matthews for 14 games and went 9-5, and so on.

The non-EP Canucks this year have been a clown show and they've typically lost when Markstrom hasn't been able to bail out the defense.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Not being carried but 1 or 2 great players is what separates good teams from elite teams.

Tampa didn't have their starting goalie for 15 games and went 12-3, Leafs missed Matthews for 14 games and went 9-5, and so on.

The non-EP Canucks this year have been a clown show and they've typically lost when Markstrom hasn't been able to bail out the defense.

Canucks are 5-4-1 without EP in the lineup.

 

[StreetHawk]

In context, they are in the playoff mix because prorating the 8th seed now until game 82 would require around 85 points at this point in time based off Colorado and their 52 in 50.

In 2018 it was 95 for WC2, 2017 it was 94, 2016 it was 87, and 2015 was 99.

Definitely a drop compared to the last 2 seasons. But see if any of the teams picks it up.

Some of the teams in the race have ufas like spezza, Methot, Edler, Jbo, staal, silverfberg. Will any of them sell?

 

[I in the Eye]

The Canucks are most definitely better than i thought they'd be... but i thought they'd be the worst team ever in the history of all sport. The Canucks are probably marginally better than last year, but I do think they end up bottom 5.

 

[Fire Benning]

Canucks are 5-4-1 without EP in the lineup.

Wrong. He's missed 11 out of 51 games and in those 11 games they have 5 wins and 6 losses. No idea what you're on about bub.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Is it the same though..I don’t think so..This year without the Sedins has a completely different feel to it

The top 6 with EP on it,and the bottom 6 with the additions of Beagle and Roussel also give a different vibe to the team

The D is the only thing that seems static.

The fact that they now have 52 points after a 13 game losing streak is quite remarkable.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Wrong. He's missed 11 out of 51 games and in those 11 games they have 5 wins and 6 losses. No idea what you're on about bub.

Isn't that 5-4-2....?

 

[nucksflailtogether]

More exciting this year...but primed to fall back and get a top 10 pick. Not even close to a worst case scenario. With the outside shot at moving up in the lottery and slimmer but existential chance of getting some playoff experience for these guys.

If you want to be negative I ain't going to stop you. But the positivity is far more evident this year over previous ones.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

for those of you sad because it looks like the Canucks are not going to get a top 10 pick do not fear it is a mirage there is no improvement. Thanks to the great Elias Pettersson it just looks and feels better.

Here is the Canucks record at the All Star Break over the last 4 years

2015 - Made Playoffs

2016 - 51 games - 52 pts - drafted 5th overall - Oli Joulevi

2017 - 51 games - 52pts - drafted 5th overall - Elias Pettersson

2018 - 52 games - 48 pts - drafted 7th overall - Quinn Hughes

2019 - 51 games - 52 pts - drafting ??????

so as you can see everything fell apart after the All- Star game - when the intensity ramps up and and everyone is fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot and for the teams out of the running a job

Big difference this year is the Canucks are completely healthy heading into the break.

 

[ErrantShepherd]

for those of you sad because it looks like the Canucks are not going to get a top 10 pick do not fear it is a mirage there is no improvement. Thanks to the great Elias Pettersson it just looks and feels better.

Here is the Canucks record at the All Star Break over the last 4 years

2015 - Made Playoffs

2016 - 51 games - 52 pts - drafted 5th overall - Oli Joulevi

2017 - 51 games - 52pts - drafted 5th overall - Elias Pettersson

2018 - 52 games - 48 pts - drafted 7th overall - Quinn Hughes

2019 - 51 games - 52 pts - drafting ??????

so as you can see everything fell apart after the All- Star game - when the intensity ramps up and and everyone is fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot and for the teams out of the running a job

So what you're saying is we likely will be picking top 5 to 10 this year if we follow form? ...or we regress and pick lower? Or maybe even exceed expectations?

Sounds good. Is... this a bad thing?

 

[ErrantShepherd]

Is it the same though..I don’t think so..This year without the Sedins has a completely different feel to it

The top 6 with EP on it,and the bottom 6 with the additions of Beagle and Roussel also give a different vibe to the team

The D is the only thing that seems static.

The fact that they now have 52 points after a 13 game losing streak is quite remarkable.

I agree that dismissing this year as the same as the few last years doesn't take into account the personnel changes. The losing streak and the gongshow in the D this year are also large factors in the record this year.

I don't know that our 52 points so far is remarkable, but the implication the team is poised for a downward trend next year by some appears overly pessimistic.