Confirmed with Link: [VAN/SJ] Hansen(20% ret.) for Goldobin, Cond'l '17 4th (becomes 1st if SJ wins Cup)

[Red]

Never makes sense to me to compare players by draft + 1, 2, 3, etc. years since the draft is the only place in hockey that uses a Sept. 15 cut off.

Anyways here's a list of 21 year old players AHL stats. Same age as Goldobin this season or Shinkaruk or Gaunce last year. Unfortunately it doesn't have this season's stats.

http://www.quanthockey.com/ahl/en/player-age/21-year-old-ahl-players.html

Awesome link, thank you. Here's some comparables then since 2010-2011 since I'm not sure how useful comparables earlier than that truly are - scoring being higher etc. I also looked at theahl.com to try to include this year's 21 year old scorers (including Goldobin) with minimum 20 games. Goldobin and Cehlarik are the only 21 year olds I could find this year that make the "list".

1. Frank Vatrano 1.53 PPG
2. Taylor Hall 1.31 PPG
3. Devin Shore 1.13 PPG
4. Mark Stone 1.11 PPG
5. Zach Boychuk 1.08 PPG
6. Emerson Etem 1.08 PPG
7. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D) 1.05 PPG
8. Brayden Schenn 1.00 PPG
9. Tomas Jurco 1.00 PPG
10. Brandon Pirri 0.99 PPG
11. Toni Rajala 0.98 PPG
12. Jean-Gabriel Pageau 0.96 PPG
13. Max Reinhart 0.96 PPG
14. Mikkel Boedker 0.94 PPG
15. Ryan Spooner 0.94 PPG
16. Zac Dalpe 0.93 PPG
17. Radek Faksa 0.93 PPG
18. Ondrej Palat 0.93 PPG
19. Jordan Weal 0.92 PPG
20. Tyler Johnson 0.91 PPG
21. Linden Vey 0.91 PPG
22. Nikolai Goldobin 0.89 PPG
23. Nick Cousins 0.88 PPG
24. Peter Holland 0.87 PPG
25. Jeremy Morin 0.87 PPG
26. Brett Connolly 0.87 PPG
27. Vladislav Namestnikov 0.86 PPG
28. Connor Brown 0.85 PPG
29. Joseph Blandisi 0.85 PPG
30. Jonathan Marschessault 0.84 PPG
31. Aaron Palushaj 0.84 PPG
32. Peter Cehlarik 0.83 PPG
33. Brandon Montour (D) 0.83 PPG
34. Nazem Kadri 0.83 PPG
35. Teemu Pulkkinnen 0.83 PPG
36. Brendan Leipsic 0.83 PPG
37. Brendan Gaunce 0.83 PPG
38. Vincent Trochek 0.83 PPG
39. Mark Barberio (D) 0.82 PPG
40. Hunter Shinkaruk 0.82 PPG

Quite a few busts in there (Vey, Dalpe, Etem lol) but also some decent successes around the same points per game - Trochek, Kadri, Marschessault, Brown, Namestnikov, Palat, Johnson, Boedker. And then you have others like Anthony Mantha who were 0.75 PPG as 21 year olds.

 

[MS]

Draft + 3 seasons

Gaunce 29 in 74
Goldobin 41 in 46
Shinkaruk 39 in 45
Arvidsson 55 in 70 (his 21 yrold season, so technically his draft +4)
Toffoli 51 in 58
Tatar 58 in 76
Mantha 45 in 62
Pearson 47 in 64
Spooner 57 in 59
Stone 38 in 54

Those are all on the top of my head. I'm sure I can find more. But really, Shinkaruk and Gaunce seem to be the exception to the the good PPG in the AHL makes for a good producing forward in the NHL.

Most of those guys were AHL rookies fresh out of junior when they put up those numbers. If Goldobin had walked straight out of the OHL and was tossing out the numbers he has this year, I'd be far more optimistic about his upside.

But he's one of the oldest players in his draft class (3 weeks older and this would be his draft+4 year) and has played 3 full seasons against men. The issue isn't the production, it's the amount of time he's spent one notch below the NHL without being able to make the jump, while other SJS prospects in Labanc and Meier have passed him. While I wouldn't quite use the word 'stagnated', he hasn't shown a substantial upward curve since being drafted. And he's been completely healthy through that time, so unlike guys like Baertschi/Shinkaruk he doesn't have any excuses there.

He needs to make that jump NOW. If he can't come up and produce a respectable amount in the NHL over the final 20 games of this season, the odds will be pretty overwhelming that he'll bust. Hopefully he can do well. And hopefully Willie gives him the opportunity to do well.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Most of those guys were AHL rookies fresh out of junior when they put up those numbers. If Goldobin had walked straight out of the OHL and was tossing out the numbers he has this year, I'd be far more optimistic about his upside.

But he's one of the oldest players in his draft class (3 weeks older and this would be his draft+4 year) and has played 3 full seasons against men. The issue isn't the production, it's the amount of time he's spent one notch below the NHL without being able to make the jump, while other SJS prospects in Labanc and Meier have passed him. While I wouldn't quite use the word 'stagnated', he hasn't shown a substantial upward curve since being drafted. And he's been completely healthy through that time, so unlike guys like Baertschi/Shinkaruk he doesn't have any excuses there.

He needs to make that jump NOW. If he can't come up and produce a respectable amount in the NHL over the final 20 games of this season, the odds will be pretty overwhelming that he'll bust. Hopefully he can do well. And hopefully Willie gives him the opportunity to do well.

This is well said. I should just let MS speak for me at this point.

 

[FroshaugFan2]

Actually it makes sense to do so as it counts the number of development years in their clubs system. Summer development camps, prospect tournaments, training camp, and in-season development. The more time you have under an NHL teams tutelage the more opportunity you have to develop and advance towards an NHL spot. You also can't make the NHL (or attempt to) until you've been drafted so it makes a logical baseline.

But then in a typical draft + 3 year you are comparing 21 year old second year pros to 20 year olds straight out of junior. I don't think any amount of post draft tutelage makes those two players comparable.

All through out their development birth year is what matters. Birth year is what matters in international tournaments, junior, midget, bantam, etc. I don't see how a couple development camps makes Player X born Sept 15 1995 comparable to Player Y born Sept 16 1994 when Player Y is a year more mature and has played an extra year of Junior.

 

[Red]

Most of those guys were AHL rookies fresh out of junior when they put up those numbers. If Goldobin had walked straight out of the OHL and was tossing out the numbers he has this year, I'd be far more optimistic about his upside.

But he's one of the oldest players in his draft class (3 weeks older and this would be his draft+4 year) and has played 3 full seasons against men. The issue isn't the production, it's the amount of time he's spent one notch below the NHL without being able to make the jump, while other SJS prospects in Labanc and Meier have passed him. While I wouldn't quite use the word 'stagnated', he hasn't shown a substantial upward curve since being drafted. And he's been completely healthy through that time, so unlike guys like Baertschi/Shinkaruk he doesn't have any excuses there.

He needs to make that jump NOW. If he can't come up and produce a respectable amount in the NHL over the final 20 games of this season, the odds will be pretty overwhelming that he'll bust. Hopefully he can do well. And hopefully Willie gives him the opportunity to do well.

But literally all of those players you quoted in the original list except Toffoli (who spent 20 games in the AHL to start his 2nd AHL season there), and Arvidsson (who was 21 as a rookie) played at least half of a second AHL season just like Goldobin (Mantha, Gaunce, Tatar, Stone, Spooner, Pearson, Shinkaruk all played 40+ AHL games in their second AHL season).

Edit: No argument that he needs to make the jump before next season though to have a chance of becoming a legitimate top 6 forward. But I don't see the issue with his AHL time this season as implying a failure for a prospect when there's a good number of examples to the contrary.

 

[WTG]

It's his draft + 3 now, not draft + 4 no matter how much hand wringing you do it doesn't change that fact. Older players get the same amount of development years as younger players.

 

[MS]

This is well said. I should just let MS speak for me at this point.

Ha, thanks.

People just continually underestimate how quickly quality players (and quality forwards in particular) blow through the AHL, and act like playing 2 full seasons there and then making the jump to the NHL as a quality player mid-way through their 3rd season after 200 games is completely normal. And it isn't.

Most quality top-9 NHL forwards blow through that league in less than 100 games or never touch it at all. Once you hit 100 games, the clock is really ticking. And once you reach 150, you're probably a career minor-leaguer. Goldobin is at 115, and 153 if you count his full season in a top European league. He's been scoring well at this level for a loooooooonnnng time without making the next jump, and that has to be a concern. And it isn't the same thing as a guy the same age scoring at a similar rate as an AHL rookie straight out of the CHL.

But literally all of those players you quoted in the original list except Toffoli (who spent 20 games in the AHL to start his 2nd AHL season there), and Arvidsson (who was 21 as a rookie) played at least half of a second AHL season just like Goldobin (Mantha, Gaunce, Tatar, Stone, Spooner, Pearson, Shinkaruk all played 40+ AHL games in their second AHL season).

Edit: No argument that he needs to make the jump before next season though to have a chance of becoming a legitimate top 6 forward. But I don't see the issue with his AHL time this season as implying a failure for a prospect when there's a good number of examples to the contrary.

Most of those guys still didn't get to 100 AHL games or not much past it (excluding Tatar, who is a major outlier). Goldobin has played two full seasons PLUS that extra year in Finland which can't be ignored, either.

I'm not being negative about Goldobin and he obviously has skills and I hope he does well. But it has to start NOW. If he can't compete at this level over the final 1/4 of this season, it's a huge problem. And if he's in Utica to start next year, he's probably a dud.

This isn't a long-range project. People should be expecting this player to be able to come in and stick here, and be able to score at this level. Obviously his all-around game might not be up to par and he'll be allowed time to work on that at this level, but he needs to score now in the NHL. I'm not saying he will or he won't because I haven't seen him enough, but that is what the expectation from fans here should be.

 

[MS]

It's his draft + 3 now, not draft + 4 no matter how much hand wringing you do it doesn't change that fact. Older players get the same amount of development years as younger players.

An October '95 who has played 3 full seasons against men isn't in the same developmental spot as a July '96 who is currently an AHL rookie.

 

[CanaFan]

But then in a typical draft + 3 year you are comparing 21 year old second year pros to 20 year olds straight out of junior. I don't think any amount of post draft tutelage makes those two players comparable.

All through out their development birth year is what matters. Birth year is what matters in international tournaments, junior, midget, bantam, etc. I don't see how a couple development camps makes Player X born Sept 15 1995 comparable to Player Y born Sept 16 1994 when Player Y is a year more mature and has played an extra year of Junior.

Recency. These camps are much more recent in their dev curve than some tournaments they played as 15 or 16 year olds and so more pertinent to where they are today.

Your point about the AHL is valid though, so I'd agree it makes sense to look at whether it is their first or second year in the A when comparing players.

 

[WTG]

An October '95 who has played 3 full seasons against men isn't in the same developmental spot as a July '96 who is currently an AHL rookie.

2 seasons, not 3.

 

[MS]

2 seasons, not 3.

He played the 14-15 season in the SM-Liiga against men (and did well), so yes it is 3. Yes, in most cases it's 2 vs. 1 but Goldobin is an exception.

 

[Bgav]

Most of those guys were AHL rookies fresh out of junior when they put up those numbers. If Goldobin had walked straight out of the OHL and was tossing out the numbers he has this year, I'd be far more optimistic about his upside.

But he's one of the oldest players in his draft class (3 weeks older and this would be his draft+4 year) and has played 3 full seasons against men. The issue isn't the production, it's the amount of time he's spent one notch below the NHL without being able to make the jump, while other SJS prospects in Labanc and Meier have passed him. While I wouldn't quite use the word 'stagnated', he hasn't shown a substantial upward curve since being drafted. And he's been completely healthy through that time, so unlike guys like Baertschi/Shinkaruk he doesn't have any excuses there.

He needs to make that jump NOW. If he can't come up and produce a respectable amount in the NHL over the final 20 games of this season, the odds will be pretty overwhelming that he'll bust. Hopefully he can do well. And hopefully Willie gives him the opportunity to do well.

It's all about willie IMO. If he doesn't give him a chance I don't think we can judge till we have a new coach

 

[WTG]

He played the 14-15 season in the SM-Liiga against men (and did well), so yes it is 3. Yes, in most cases it's 2 vs. 1 but Goldobin is an exception.

No, he did not play "3 full seasons", you are including this season.

 

[Red]

Most of those guys still didn't get to 100 AHL games or not much past it (excluding Tatar, who is a major outlier). Goldobin has played two full seasons PLUS that extra year in Finland which can't be ignored, either.

I'm not being negative about Goldobin and he obviously has skills and I hope he does well. But it has to start NOW. If he can't compete at this level over the final 1/4 of this season, it's a huge problem. And if he's in Utica to start next year, he's probably a dud.

This isn't a long-range project. People should be expecting this player to be able to come in and stick here, and be able to score at this level. Obviously his all-around game might not be up to par and he'll be allowed time to work on that at this level, but he needs to score now in the NHL. I'm not saying he will or he won't because I haven't seen him enough, but that is what the expectation from fans here should be.

But that's not really true. Before becoming a "full time" NHLer

Tomas Tatar: 204 AHL games
Ryan Spooner: 142 AHL games
Hunter Shinkaruk: 138 AHL games (still not one)
Anthony Mantha: 132 AHL games
Brendan Gaunce: 122 AHL games
Nikolai Goldobin: 106 AHL games (who knows what will happen)
Tanner Pearson: 105 AHL games
Mark Stone: 91 AHL games
Viktor ArvidssonL 87 AHL games (and also a year older than everyone else)
Tyler Toffoli: 76 AHL games

Most of those players just in that list DID have more than 100 AHL games, all of them had at least 75.

And that's just that list. There's many more examples of players who played about 100 games in the AHL and had successful careers. And of course there's many examples of busts too.

Not disputing being cautious about Goldobin. I'd say that long sample list of 21 year old AHLers shows about 50-60% of them ended up with decent 2nd liner + careers, and the others are either tweeners or busts. So he has a 50/50 chance of making it which isn't the home run many people wanted. I'm okay with it primarily because I think you have to collect enough of these players so that one breaks out and I think Goldobin and Dahlen is finally a good start to that.

But absolutely, we should be cautious and I WILL be concerned if 20 or so games into the next season, Goldobin doesn't solidify himself on our roster.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

But that's not really true. Before becoming a "full time" NHLer

Tomas Tatar: 204 AHL games
Ryan Spooner: 142 AHL games
Hunter Shinkaruk: 138 AHL games (still not one)
Anthony Mantha: 132 AHL games
Brendan Gaunce: 122 AHL games
Nikolai Goldobin: 106 AHL games (who knows what will happen)
Tanner Pearson: 105 AHL games
Mark Stone: 91 AHL games
Viktor ArvidssonL 87 AHL games (and also a year older than everyone else)
Tyler Toffoli: 76 AHL games

Most of those players just in that list DID have more than 100 AHL games, all of them had at least 75.

And that's just that list. There's many more examples of players who played about 100 games in the AHL and had successful careers. And of course there's many examples of busts too.

Not disputing being cautious about Goldobin. I'd say that long sample list of 21 year old AHLers shows about 50-60% of them ended up with decent 2nd liner + careers, and the others are either tweeners or busts. So he has a 50/50 chance of making it which isn't the home run many people wanted. I'm okay with it primarily because I think you have to collect enough of these players so that one breaks out and I think Goldobin and Dahlen is finally a good start to that.

But absolutely, we should be cautious and I WILL be concerned if 20 or so games into the next season, Goldobin doesn't solidify himself on our roster.

And if the expectation is that he becomes brendan Gaunce or Ryan Spooner then that's fine. Is that where we've set the bar?

 

[WTG]

And if the expectation is that he becomes brendan Gaunce or Ryan Spooner then that's fine. Is that where we've set the bar?

Ryan spooner has played almost 200 games and is .56PPG.

That's a success

 

[Red]

And if the expectation is that he becomes brendan Gaunce or Ryan Spooner then that's fine. Is that where we've set the bar?

Personally, my bar for success is a 2nd liner, which many of the names on that list are - Stone, Toffoli, Tatar, Mantha and yes, Ryan Spooner.

Disappointment would be if he follows Shinkaruk instead.

We were never getting a legitimate 1st line talent for Jannik Hansen.

No issue with Goldobin turning into a Stone, Toffoli, Mantha, Tatar, or Spooner.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Ryan spooner has played almost 200 games and is .56PPG.

That's a success

And this is, fundamentally, why I have a differing opinion about this trade and why we seem to be at a disconnect.

When drafting, getting a player like that is a success. I want someone better as a return for two playoffs of Jannik Hansen.

 

[Red]

When drafting, getting a player like that is a success. I want someone better as a return for two playoffs of Jannik Hansen.

I think that's understandable to want that but completely unrealistic.

You get legitimate no-bust young 1st line forward talents maybe for a player like Tanev or other top 2/3 D, not two playoffs of 2nd/3rd line tweeners like Hansen.

Barring a few trades where prospects were traded (either in horrible widely panned deals like Forsberg for Erat) or prospects that have Goldobin's value all of a sudden boom and improve, you don't get that kind of value for players like Hansen. I love the guy but no. It sounds like you'd prefer a roll of the dice chance for a 1st liner with a late 1st instead but that's a complete lottery just as well as Goldobin is...

Goldobin becoming a young 45-55 point second liner for the next 7 years and I absolutely will consider this trade a success. And yeah, absolutely, if Goldobin doesn't become a non-forced regular in our lineup 20 or so games into next season, I will become critical of the trade (and more so, once again our prospect and pro scouting).

 

[MS]

No, he did not play "3 full seasons", you are including this season.

Oh, come on. This is splitting hairs.

We're in March of his 3rd full season playing against men.

But that's not really true. Before becoming a "full time" NHLer

Tomas Tatar: 204 AHL games
Ryan Spooner: 142 AHL games
Hunter Shinkaruk: 138 AHL games (still not one)
Anthony Mantha: 132 AHL games
Brendan Gaunce: 122 AHL games
Nikolai Goldobin: 106 AHL games (who knows what will happen)
Tanner Pearson: 105 AHL games
Mark Stone: 91 AHL games
Viktor ArvidssonL 87 AHL games (and also a year older than everyone else)
Tyler Toffoli: 76 AHL games

Most of those players just in that list DID have more than 100 AHL games, all of them had at least 75.

And that's just that list. There's many more examples of players who played about 100 games in the AHL and had successful careers. And of course there's many examples of busts too.

Not disputing being cautious about Goldobin. I'd say that long sample list of 21 year old AHLers shows about 50-60% of them ended up with decent 2nd liner + careers, and the others are either tweeners or busts. So he has a 50/50 chance of making it which isn't the home run many people wanted. I'm okay with it primarily because I think you have to collect enough of these players so that one breaks out and I think Goldobin and Dahlen is finally a good start to that.

But absolutely, we should be cautious and I WILL be concerned if 20 or so games into the next season, Goldobin doesn't solidify himself on our roster.

He's at 115 + another 40 in a top European league. Most of your list was out of the AHL by 120 games.

Obviously there are some examples of guys that make it. But most good NHL forwards are Bo Horvats who barely touch that league.

Ryan spooner has played almost 200 games and is .56PPG.

That's a success

Ryan Spooner is a pretty marginal player - basically a somewhat better Linden Vey, just good enough to hang around as a 2nd line/PP guy with zero intangibles.

 

[canwincup]

And this is, fundamentally, why I have a differing opinion about this trade and why we seem to be at a disconnect.

When drafting, getting a player like that is a success. I want someone better as a return for two playoffs of Jannik Hansen.

You do realize that Jannik Hansen has never surpassed 40 points? I know he brings more value to a team other than scoring but he's getting overrated around here. Hansen is one of the best third liners in the league, but if Goldobin becomes a 50-55 point player that should be considered a success.

 

[canwincup]

Oh, come on. This is splitting hairs.

We're in March of his 3rd full season playing against men.



He's at 115 + another 40 in a top European league. Most of your list was out of the AHL by 120 games.

Obviously there are some examples of guys that make it. But most good NHL forwards are Bo Horvats who barely touch that league.



Ryan Spooner is a pretty marginal player - basically a somewhat better Linden Vey, just good enough to hang around as a 2nd line/PP guy with zero intangibles.

If you are counting pro games in other leagues Puljujarvi is at a 120 pro games, guess he should be out of the league by now.

Dahlen will also be past 120 after he plays in the AHL next year, guess that's a bad sign as well.

 

[geebaan]

Why did we have to retain salary? Seems dumb.

 

[WTG]

Oh, come on. This is splitting hairs.

We're in March of his 3rd full season playing against men.

I don't really care, but what you said is still false.

An October '95 who has played 3 full seasons against men isn't in the same developmental spot as a July '96 who is currently an AHL rookie.

If Goldobin played "3 full seasons" in this case, that AHL rookie wouldn't be a rookie because we'd be adding a "full season" to him too.

Ryan Spooner is a pretty marginal player - basically a somewhat better Linden Vey, just good enough to hang around as a 2nd line/PP guy with zero intangibles.

Come on, "somewhat better Linden Vey".

Spooner averages 46 points per 82 games. Linden Vey, averages 26 points per 82 games.


Personally, I do not think you are coming at this trade objectively.

 

[WTG]

If you are counting pro games in other leagues Puljujarvi is at a 120 pro games, guess he should be out of the league by now.

Dahlen will also be past 120 after he plays in the AHL next year, guess that's a bad sign as well.

Speaking of Dalhen if he comes in the AHL and puts up numbers like Goldobin has this year I doubt people would complain 1 bit, despite having the same amount of development year. People would be calling him a top 6 prospect.

What if Boeser comes into the AHL and puts up those same numbers? What does that hurt his stock?