Confirmed with Link: [VAN/NJD] Canucks trade G Cory Schneider to Devils for 9th Overall Pick - Part II

[Seattle Totems]

Is Luongo much better than an average NHL goaltender and how far will his play drop over the next nine seasons? That is the only question that needs to be asked. The Canucks are committed to Luongo for a very long time and if Luongo falters they are totally screwed.

 

[rune74]

Is Luongo much better than an average NHL goaltender and how far will his play drop over the next nine seasons? That is the only question that needs to be asked. The Canucks are committed to Luongo for a very long time and if Luongo falters they are totally screwed.

Um, yes? How is he not better then an average goalie?

Has everyone forgot who he is all of a sudden?

 

[Proto]

I think Gillis is a terrific GM. I dont' think he's perfect, but I can't think of many times he's made decisions that weren't at least defensible. His decision making process seems sound, even if I don't always agree with the ultimate decision.

I can't really imagine someone being more comfortable with any of the previous GMs the franchise has had, and I can't think of many other GM's in the league that are as consistently on point as Gillis is.

 

[Seattle Totems]

last season:

25th in GAA
31st in Sv%

2011-2012
20th in GAA when you remove tenders with <10 games
15th in Sv% when you remove tenders with <10 games

Clearly, Luongo is not this top five or top ten goaltender that people used to talk about. He is an average goaltender at this stage of his career and his skills are deteriorating as he gets older.

 

[rune74]

last season:

25th in GAA
31st in Sv%

2011-2012
20th in GAA when you remove tenders with <10 games
15th in Sv% when you remove tenders with <10 games

Clearly, Luongo is not this top five or top ten goaltender that people used to talk about. He is an average goaltender at this stage of his career and his skills are deteriorating as he gets older.

Hmm in 2011 to 2012 what was his SV% 0.919 sure looks bad only 8 goalies above him who had played 50 or more games...13th in the nhl, 2.41 GA as well. 17th in the nhl only 9 goalies who played more then 50 games above him. that year according to this site:

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2011-12-nhl-goalies-stats.html


Weird Carey Price, Ryan Miller and Ryan Ward all had worse stats then him....they must be on the decline to and are only average.

 

[Proto]

I don't know how people can look at the wide variation in year-to-year special teams save percentage and think it's a more useful metric than ES goaltending.

Even if you think SH goaltending is a true, repeatable talent, I think it would be possible for a team to shelter a poor SH goaltender by playing more disciplined hockey (and improving penalty killing), whereas there has been no evidence to suggest you can protect a bad ES goaltender in any way but limiting shots.

If the Canucks can be a more disciplined team, I think Luongo has 3-4 more elite seasons in him, followed by a modest decline.

 

[Wisp]

If the Canucks can be a more disciplined team, I think Luongo has 3-4 more elite seasons in him, followed by a modest decline.

There basically isn't a coach with a higher record of strong discipline than Tortorella, so I wonder if the Canucks were thinking the same thing you are here.

 

[Proto]

There basically isn't a coach with a higher record of strong discipline than Tortorella, so I wonder if the Canucks were thinking the same thing you are here.

That's what made me come around on the Tortorella hiring, honestly. He might be a jerk, but a coach with a team consistently in the bottom 5 in times shorthanded is doing something very right, especially in contrast to AV's undisciplined wild bunch.

 

[tantalum]

last season:

25th in GAA
31st in Sv%

Not a good year stats wise. also a very small sample size that one game threw the numbers all out of whack.

2011-2012
20th in GAA when you remove tenders with <10 games
15th in Sv% when you remove tenders with <10 games

Seriously? The guy appears in over 50 games and you are comparing him to guys with 10? The more apt comparison would be to compare him to other starters (i.e. over 40 games)

here's some stats: 31 wins, 0.919 SV%. Damn that sucks.

Clearly, Luongo is not this top five or top ten goaltender that people used to talk about. He is an average goaltender at this stage of his career and his skills are deteriorating as he gets older.

But Halak and Lehtonen are because the stats in 2011-12 would say that based on your analysis.

0.919 is not really average and considering that with the exception of this past 20 game sample and his rookie season, he has been at or around that mark suggests that he will be right back there again. He isn't one that bounces down to 0.895 on year and up to 0.935 the next. He is consistently around the 0.920 mark. If having Luongo at around 0.920 SV% has a negative effect on the team then wow are they ever in trouble. If they need a 0.930 SV% there is so much wrong with the team that it wouldn't even really matter that they had such a goaltender (and keep in mind until Schneider can actually do that with a starter's workload he hasn't proven he can do it).

 

[Bankerguy]

I am not the biggest Luongo fan but i have to step in to this conversation....

You cant look at last years numbers and draw any useful conclusions

Luongo is a SLOW starter but picks up his game later on....also, the sample size is too small...

Over a 65 game season, Luongos numbers will sparkle like usual....

Also, i would argue that even when he puts up a .920 save %..he's actually BETTER than that..because he has a few blowouts a yaer..like really bad blowouts where he lets like 7 goals....if you exclude those from the sample and recalculate his number look even better.

 

[Samzilla]

I am not the biggest Luongo fan but i have to step in to this conversation....

You cant look at last years numbers and draw any useful conclusions

Luongo is a SLOW starter but picks up his game later on....also, the sample size is too small...

Over a 65 game season, Luongos numbers will sparkle like usual....

Also, i would argue that even when he puts up a .920 save %..he's actually BETTER than that..because he has a few blowouts a yaer..like really bad blowouts where he lets like 7 goals....if you exclude those from the sample and recalculate his number look even better.

If you're gonna take out his blowout outliers from the samples, should you not also remove his shutout outliers too? You can't just take blowouts away from the equation and say, "well if you take out the games where he let in a lot of goals...his stats look way better!" That's no more valid than saying "If you take away Lu's shutouts his stats look worse."

That being said, perhaps we have a coach now who won't hang him out to dry and leave him on the ice to get lit up. That'll help his numbers a lot more than just taking them out of the stats after the fact.

 

[overtherainbow]

A reason why you would exclude blow outs is because the quality of shots increases as the team stops trying/playing defense. Lackluster defense skews his stats and thus you can't accurately predict performance based on that. On the other hand close games and shut outs where teams are still trying to score or play defense are better for predicting future performance.

 

[Barney Gumble]

That's what made me come around on the Tortorella hiring, honestly. He might be a jerk, but a coach with a team consistently in the bottom 5 in times shorthanded is doing something very right, especially in contrast to AV's undisciplined wild bunch.

Which also especially problematic when the officiating seems to not go your way.

 

[Reign Nateo]

You have to admit the numbers look concerning when compared to Schneider's in front of the same team. Maybe they played different for him, but that's a another can of worms altogether. It's a bit worrisome.

I don't think Luongo is an elite goaltender anymore. But he doesn't have to be. 'Elite' to me means you're one of the, if not the best goaltender in the sport. Luongo is not on that level anymore. To succeed, he just has to be solid from start to finish. He's not the athlete he once was and has a lot of miles on him. The days of him putting up top 5 or even top 10 numbers are likely gone, but we can still do well with him in net. It's really up to him to do it though.

 

[Reign Nateo]

If you're gonna take out his blowout outliers from the samples, should you not also remove his shutout outliers too? You can't just take blowouts away from the equation and say, "well if you take out the games where he let in a lot of goals...his stats look way better!" That's no more valid than saying "If you take away Lu's shutouts his stats look worse."

That being said, perhaps we have a coach now who won't hang him out to dry and leave him on the ice to get lit up. That'll help his numbers a lot more than just taking them out of the stats after the fact.

In baseball at the end of the year a pitcher takes away his 5-7 best starts, and his 5-7 worst and what's left gives you a pretty good idea of what kind of year you had. I think the same thing could be applied to goalies.

 

[Proto]

In baseball at the end of the year a pitcher takes away his 5-7 best starts, and his 5-7 worst and what's left gives you a pretty good idea of what kind of year you had. I think the same thing could be applied to goalies.

Or you just look at the xFIP and ERA+ and call it a day!

 

[RandV]

Um, yes? How is he not better then an average goalie?

Has everyone forgot who he is all of a sudden?

Haha pretty much. Or they used his losing the starting job to 'backup goalie with sheltered starts' Schneider as a sleight against Luongo rather than a credit to Schneider.

 

[Seattle Totems]

Nothing like the off-season and the usual cherry picked Luongo stats... Never mind the 30 other goaltenders that we're comparing him to or the goaltender that played on the same team as Luongo. Nahh we'll just remove Luongo's worst starts and use real stats for everyone else. That sounds fair. I bet every GM that Gillis used that argument on was lining up to trade for our "top five" goalie.

 

[Reign Nateo]

Nothing like the off-season and the usual cherry picked Luongo stats... Never mind the 30 other goaltenders that we're comparing him to or the goaltender that played on the same team as Luongo. Nahh we'll just remove Luongo's worst starts and use real stats for everyone else. That sounds fair. I bet every GM that Gillis used that argument on was lining up to trade for our "top five" goalie.

This is something people seem to be missing. Contract or no contract, if Luongo was still considered an "elite" or "top 5" goalies, there would have been even one team willing to give an asset for him. There wasn't. Not even one. That tells you all you need to know about Luongo's status around the league right now.

I appreciate the support and affection some Canucks fans seem to have for Luongo, but we need to look realistically at what we have in net. It's a lot of uncertainty from where I stand.

 

[Wisp]

This is something people seem to be missing. Contract or no contract, if Luongo was still considered an "elite" or "top 5" goalies, there would have been even one team willing to give an asset for him. There wasn't. Not even one. That tells you all you need to know about Luongo's status right now.

Caman. Nobody wanted to give assets for Grabovski, Briere, or Lecavalier either. Two of those guys ended up getting some pretty decent deals as UFAs, though.

 

[Reign Nateo]

Caman. Nobody wanted to give assets for Grabovski, Briere, or Lecavalier either. Two of those guys ended up getting some pretty decent deals as UFAs, though.

Anyone still under the delusion that those are top centres though? That's my point.

If they were elite players, they would have garnered a return, regardless of contract, but they aren't. And neither is Luongo.

 

[BrandonL]

I'm interested to see what this kid can do over the next couple of years, I probably haven't been this excited about the Canucks acquiring a player since Luongo.

 

[Wisp]

Anyone still under the delusion that those are top centres though? That's my point.

Lecavalier is still good for 0.84 ppg, so it's pretty asinine to insist calling him a top centre is a "delusion." Grabovski, too, was a great two way talent before getting buried by Carlyle. Kesler-like in a lot of ways. Still is, probably. Not sure what the hold up on him is.

I don't know what sort of numbers Luongo is going to post next year but he's been ridiculously consistent over his career and is coming off a light work load. I wouldn't want to bet against him.

 

[PG Canuck]

Time for a new thread.

Closed.

Part III: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=69396151#post69396151