Valimaki vs Liljegren vs Foote vs Brannstrom draft +1 review

[TheGoldenJet]

On average:
Players moving from the SHL to the NHL retain 60% of their points per game
Players moving from the AHL to the NHL retain 47% of their points per game
Players moving from the NCAC (toughest NCAA division) to the NHL retain 41% of their points per game
Players moving from the WHL to the NHL retain 27% of their points per game

The problem with these numbers (assuming they are legitimate) is that they don’t compare the two groups of players who frequently move between the AHL and NHL versus those that move from the SHL to the NHL.

While the AHL has its own set of elite prospects, the AHL group will also include a bunch of “AHL lifers”, guys in their late 20s or 30s who are what they are, will not improve, and move up temporarily to the NHL when injury callups give them that chance.

On the other hand, SHL lifers (who are not good enough to consistently play in the NHL) will typically not move up and down between the SHL and NHL, they will just stay in Sweden.

Therefore the vast majority of players who play in the SHL and then play in the NHL the following season are higher end prospects who are developing well and improving with each game. After a big summer, that prospect is no longer the same player he was in the SHL a year ago, he’s a better player and that’s why his stats will be comparatively higher after moving to the NHL than those of the AHL lifer.

 

[lomiller1]

The problem with these numbers (assuming they are legitimate) is that they don’t compare the two groups of players who frequently move between the AHL and NHL versus those that move from the SHL to the NHL.

While the AHL has its own set of elite prospects, the AHL group will also include a bunch of “AHL lifers”, guys in their late 20s or 30s who are what they are, will not improve, and move up temporarily to the NHL when injury callups give them that chance.

On the other hand, SHL lifers (who are not good enough to consistently play in the NHL) will typically not move up and down between the SHL and NHL, they will just stay in Sweden.

Therefore the vast majority of players who play in the SHL and then play in the NHL the following season are higher end prospects who are developing well and improving with each game. After a big summer, that prospect is no longer the same player he was in the SHL a year ago, he’s a better player and that’s why his stats will be comparatively higher after moving to the NHL than those of the AHL lifer.

This is more of an issue for the CHL (something I mentioned in a previous post). Players coming from the AHL are not usualy "young" anymore, most can't start there until they are 20, which makes them 21-23 by the time they play in the NHL

 

[lomiller1]

I went through the rosters of most of the AHL teams (I got bored and the results were pretty consistent so I didn't finish, but went through 3/4 of the teams) looking at players who were playing in the AHL and had played in the SHL the year before.

This has been done a lot more comprehensively by people who actually know what they are doing. The numbers are well documented (though of course they change slightly year to year) The SHL is a tougher League than the AHL it's been looked at many times by many different people, there should be nothing new here
BEHIND THE NET: Hockey Analysis and Statistics
The NHLE Calculator - NHL Numbers
Updated Translation Factors - Hockey Abstract
Vollman's (hockeyabstract.com) 2017 updates


.

 

[biotk]

This has been done a lot more comprehensively by people who actually know what they are doing. The numbers are well documented (though of course they change slightly year to year) The SHL is a tougher League than the AHL it's been looked at many times by many different people, there should be nothing new here
BEHIND THE NET: Hockey Analysis and Statistics
The NHLE Calculator - NHL Numbers
Updated Translation Factors - Hockey Abstract
Vollman's (hockeyabstract.com) 2017 updates

No - what I am talking about has not been done. Yes - looking at the very few select players who have gone straight from the SHL to the NHL has been looked at many times and the numbers are a decent starting point, still in its infancy, minimally useful and astronomically flawed. As Tulloch (a supporter of these conversion factors) has pointed out Allsvenskan's translation factor came out as 0.80 - way higher than the SHL although it is clearly a much, much inferior league and Jr A Liiga's translation factor came out higher than Liiga's which is equally absurd. And that is why those leagues were not included in the tweet in your post, but anyone who sees them would understand how completely flawed those numbers are.

The reason that happens is among the reasons I have pointed it out for it being extremely flawed. The number of Allsvenskan players who jump straight to the NHL is both extremely small and only the very best of the best, whereas many more players from the SHL jump straight to the NHL, so that includes both the best and a bunch of other pretty strong players. This skews the numbers way up for Allsvenskan. There are ways around this - Tulloch applied the Wilson method - for instance tracking players who jump from Allsvenskan to the SHL as well as those who jump to the NHL - but only did so for European teams - and your post doesn't show that application.

This is the exact same problem with the evaluation comparing the AHL to a league like the SHL. Far more players go from the AHL to the NHL, than from the SHL to the AHL. While players going from the SHL to the NHL are both the best and a bunch of other pretty strong players going generally into top 6 and top 4 roles - otherwise they would go to the AHL, players going from the AHL to the NHL include both the best and a bunch of other pretty strong players and others who are not as strong heading into fourth line and 3rd pairing roles. This skews the SHL upwards in the same way Allsvenskan was skewed upwards, and the only way to correct it would be apply the Wilson method and include players who go from the SHL to the AHL. What the end result would be I have no idea, and I don't really care. As I already showed, I looked at 20 players who have gone from the SHL to the AHL over the last two seasons and they averaged a 14% drop in ppg.

Until players who come to the AHL from both the CHL and European teams is completed - the numbers displayed by you are pretty much worthless for the AHL as far as I am concerned. Even then I would want the numbers taken for a 3 year period instead of 2 to give more accurate numbers.

If you don't understand how completely flawed those numbers are then you can't be helped.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

This is more of an issue for the CHL (something I mentioned in a previous post). Players coming from the AHL are not usualy "young" anymore, most can't start there until they are 20, which makes them 21-23 by the time they play in the NHL

It is true for junior leagues, but proportionally it will happen more for the SHL than for the AHL, which will skew the numbers in your previous post.

 

[lomiller1]

It is true for junior leagues, but proportionally it will happen more for the SHL than for the AHL, which will skew the numbers in your previous post.

Most players coming to the NHL from the SHL or AHL are not at an age where they are undergoing massive changes in the offseason. If anything it would skew the AHL upwards because it’s a developmental league with limits on how many older players you can carry and has a lot of 20/21 year olds making the jump to the NHL.

Again, these are not new numbers. The strengths and weaknesses are pretty well known at this point

 

[dangomon]

The problem with these numbers (assuming they are legitimate) is that they don’t compare the two groups of players who frequently move between the AHL and NHL versus those that move from the SHL to the NHL.

While the AHL has its own set of elite prospects, the AHL group will also include a bunch of “AHL lifers”, guys in their late 20s or 30s who are what they are, will not improve, and move up temporarily to the NHL when injury callups give them that chance.

On the other hand, SHL lifers (who are not good enough to consistently play in the NHL) will typically not move up and down between the SHL and NHL, they will just stay in Sweden.

Therefore the vast majority of players who play in the SHL and then play in the NHL the following season are higher end prospects who are developing well and improving with each game. After a big summer, that prospect is no longer the same player he was in the SHL a year ago, he’s a better player and that’s why his stats will be comparatively higher after moving to the NHL than those of the AHL lifer.

I'd be curious to see the stats on guys older than 25 (make it any age, but this may be a decent starting point to eliminate prospects) making their transition to the NHL. Par Lindholm this year would be a good example, to see how everything translates.

 

[biotk]

Scott Wheeler from the Athletic just released his new Top 50 drafted NHL prospects ranking.

He has
Liljegren at 29
Valimaki at 35
Brannstrom at 43
Foote at 49

(Kylington has fallen to the HM list)

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Most players coming to the NHL from the SHL or AHL are not at an age where they are undergoing massive changes in the offseason. If anything it would skew the AHL upwards because it’s a developmental league with limits on how many older players you can carry and has a lot of 20/21 year olds making the jump to the NHL.

Again, these are not new numbers. The strengths and weaknesses are pretty well known at this point

Again, the question is not which league has a higher total number of young players, or which league has a higher total number of older players. It’s which league has a higher proportion of older players (say 26-35) that make the transition to the NHL. And the AHL undoubtedly has more of these players getting NHL callups than the SHL does. Which means that proportionally the AHL is sending more older players (and therefore less prospects) to the NHL than the SHL is sending. Which will artificially boost the SHL numbers in your previous post.

 

[Volica]

Scott Wheeler from the Athletic just released his new Top 50 drafted NHL prospects ranking.

He has
Liljegren at 29
Valimaki at 35
Brannstrom at 43
Foote at 49

(Kylington has fallen to the HM list)

Who?

Scott Wheeler is a national prospects writer and Toronto Marlies reporter for The Athletic Toronto.

Checks out.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Who?

Scott Wheeler is a national prospects writer and Toronto Marlies reporter for The Athletic Toronto.

Checks out.

Scott has written for the Toronto Star, Globe and Mail, The Toronto Sun, National Post, SB Nation, the PGA TOUR, McKeen’s Hockey, FC and The Hockey News.

 

[TeddyBare]

Scott Wheeler from the Athletic just released his new Top 50 drafted NHL prospects ranking.

He has
Liljegren at 29
Valimaki at 35
Brannstrom at 43
Foote at 49

(Kylington has fallen to the HM list)

What should also be noted is 7 other defensive prospects are before Liljegrin at 29

 

[biotk]

What should also be noted is 7 other defensive prospects are before Liljegrin at 29

Yes, Dahlin, Heiskanen, Hughes, Chabot, Makar, Boqvist and Bouchard. Can't say I disagree with any of those (although I feel that Chabot should have been excluded)

Who?

Scott Wheeler is a national prospects writer and Toronto Marlies reporter for The Athletic Toronto.

Checks out.

Pronman also had Liljegren ahead of those other 3 in his last list. Wheeler had no other Leaf prospects among the top 50, and Sandin didn't make his list of HMs, so wasn't in the top 120. So the Leafs' bias must be really strong with Wheeler.

 

[93LEAFS]

Wheeler is incompetent, but that doesn't necessarily make him biased.

 

[Legion34]

Doesn’t Lilly have like the highest ppg for an 18 yr old D in the AHL in like forever?

 

[biotk]

Doesn’t Lilly have like the highest ppg for an 18 yr old D in the AHL in like forever?

Yeah, but there have been very few 18 year old D in the AHL. Very few. Bottom line is that Liljegren exceeded expectations.

 

[thunder16]

Liljegren got to play on the strongest team in AHL, in a sheltered role and could essentially rack up points by making simple plays and hoping his teammates will make things happen. In the playoffs, it was proven that he wasn't cut out to be an impact player. I see he ranked #7 on his team for defenseman scoring, and only scored 1 goal. That says it all, really.

This was like Robin Salo's 16-17 season and similar regression is to be expected.

HMMM, sounds just like Laine!

 

[LeafGrief]

Can't say I give two pennies for what Wheeler or Pronman think.

HMMM, sounds just like Laine!

That's not helpful and is quite dumb tbh.

 

[thunder16]

Can't say I give two pennies for what Wheeler or Pronman think.



That's not helpful and is quite dumb tbh.

Dumb to you not to me!! Ijuka is is a constant basher of Leaf players and prospects. But it actually reminded me of Laine. First thing that came to mind.

 

[LeafGrief]

Dumb to you not to me!! Ijuka is is a constant basher of Leaf players and prospects. But it actually reminded me of Laine. First thing that came to mind.

I am well aware of who you are responding to. It's still not helpful.

Laine is a fantastic player. 12 points in 17 games might be under his standards, but it's hardly a disappearing act, just like Nylander's 4 points or Matthews 2 points weren't disappearing acts either. Laine sucking doesn't make the Leafs any better. I can understand getting your jollies from provoking specific posters, but it's still not helpful.

 

[crump]

Have been enjoying reading this thread. I have seen nothing of the other prospects so I appreciate the updated opinions on them, but suffice to say I would have been happy with any of them at draft time.

I have enjoyed these clips of Liljegren. They aren’t the traditional highlight video’s showing only goals. But the basics with even the warts. I love how he evades forechecking and displays some good speed and vision on breakouts.

 

[lomiller1]

Again, the question is not which league has a higher total number of young players, or which league has a higher total number of older players. It’s which league has a higher proportion of older players (say 26-35) that make the transition to the NHL.

The methodology is well established, many people have looked at it and replicated it. If you MUST try and re-invent the wheel don’t insist on making it square. You are wrong and I will repeat the reasons why you are wrong one last time.

- iI's not the number of players it's the ratio of younger to older that can potentially skew the results for very young leagues like the CHL

- The AHL has limits on older players. The non-developmental older players there rarely advance to becoming NHL regulars.

- Journeymen from European leagues like the SJL make the jump to the NHL in greater numbers than you think. In fact, the main issue with NHLe for Liiga and the Swiss league is that there are only a couple young players, most are journeymen.

- Player season to season improvement has already leveled off dramatically by the time they are 21/22 which is when most AHL players of note jump to the NHL.

 

[Boxscore]

Foote
Valimaki
Brannstrom
Liljegren

Liljegren will be David Rubdlad 2.0, and I like the Leafs better than the Bolts, Flames or Knights. The kid is a train wreck in his own zone - makes Jake Gardiner look like Rod Langway. And he's soft as kleenex.