U20: (Unofficial)U20 World Rankings

1Gold Standard

Registered User
Jun 13, 2012
7,907
199
Canada USA Sweden 1-2 and 3....seems about right to me.

I didn't get my preferred Canada v USA GMG this year, so, let's hope for next year in Vancouver/Victoria.
 

MeHateHe

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
2,461
2,794
The following is the nearly complete rankings following the Division III tournament's completion today in Bulgaria. I can't do a complete ranking until the Division III qualifying tournament in February in South Africa, which will include the hosts along with Turkmenistan and Chinese Taipei. Apologies for the formatting: copying and pasting directly from Excel is a little wonky for some reason.

As I've said in the past, I think the ratings are imperfect tools for declaring anything about the state of any particular country's U20 program in one year, but I think over the course of several years, there is utility in looking at trends. The top four generally is interchangeable, although a few bad years for Finland (including a ninth place finish in 2017) is what dropped them out of the top five. Given that they won in 2016, that ninth in 2017, the 7th in 2015 and finishing out of the semifinals this year hurts them since the ranking system values consistency over excellence. The Czechs and Slovaks in around six and seven is appropriate for their performance and the movement of the Danes (ahead of the Swiss for the first time this year) indicates a slow uptick in their success.

Lower down, the decline of programs like Germany (from 9th to 12th) and Norway (11th to 16th) seems evident, while countries like Kazakhstan (17th to 13th), France (19th to 15th) and Hungary (23rd to 18th) suggest steady progress. Other significant gains (from the minnows) are South Korea (29th to 26th) and Mexico (37th to 33rd). Gains in the Division II and Division III teams tend to be mercurial in the short term, so it's wise to take those gains with a whole handful of salt. Korea could conceivably benefit from greater interest brought on by the Olympics this year, so their program could get a shot in the arm.

Despite what I've said above, I think you have to look at trends over 8-10 years to make this kind of ranking system have real value. I will continue to generate these rankings over the next several years, if only to satisfy my own curiosity. I'll continue to post the results here.

table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }.xl63 { }.xl64 { color: black; }
2015 Total 2016 Total 2017 Total2018 Total
1Rus29251Rus29351Rus29251Can2925
2Swe29152Swe28802USA28952USA2915
3Can29153Fin28603Can28753Swe2890
4USA27904Can28354Swe28754Rus2835
5Fin27755USA28355Fin27305Cze2770
6Svk27306Cze27256Cze27156Fin2715
7Cze27157Svk27107Svk26757Svk2660
8Sui25958Sui25508Den26408Den2605
9Ger24709Den25309Sui25759Sui2585
10Den246510Blr239510Blr240510Blr2430
11Nor238511Ger236511Lat239511Lat2385
12Lat236512Lat236512Ger234012Ger2310
13Blr235513Nor233513Nor225013Kaz2305
14Aut221514Aut227014Aut225014Aut2230
15Slo219515Kaz216515Kaz221515Fra2205
16Ita213016Ita215516Fra214016Nor2170
17Kaz207017Slo207017Ita208517Pol2045
18Pol206018Pol206018Pol205018Hun2035
19Fra202019Fra204019Slo202019Ita2000
20Ukr197520Ukr198020Ukr195020Slo1995
21GBR188521GBR191021Hun193021Ukr1945
22Jpn186022Jpn186022GBR189022GBR1815
23Hun180023Hun181023Jpn182023Jpn1805
24Ltu172024Ltu173524Ltu177024Ltu1805
25Ned166025Ned164025Est165525Est1655
26Cro162526Est164026Ned162026Kor1630
27Rou159027Cro160527Rou160027Rou1605
28Est158028Kor157528Cro157028Ned1585
29Kor157529Rou155529Kor155529Cro1505
30Esp149030Esp146030Esp145030Esp1470
31Aus136531Srb137031Srb138031Srb1410
32Srb136032Aus134532Bel133532Bel1350
33Bel128533Bel131033Aus130533Mex1260
34Isl127034Chn123034Mex121034Aus1175
35Chn121035Isl116535Chn120035Chn1175
36Nzl113536Mex113536Isl112036Tur1150
37Mex110537Nzl112537Nzl109537Isl1075
38Tur101538Tur99038Tur107038Nzl1030
39RSA72039RSA87539RSA92039Isr990
40Bul62040Bul76540Bul82040Bul955
41Isr041Isr42041Isr71541RSA540
42Tai042Tai042Tai36042Tai270
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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MeHateHe

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
2,461
2,794
Bump. Two tournaments now in the books so time to revisit these rankings. Kazakhstan looks like it will move up ahead of Germany just by dint of being in the elite division.
 
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MeHateHe

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
2,461
2,794
Here are the most up-to-date rankings. Standard disclaimer: IIHF rankings are a joke. This has no bearing on anything, blah blah blah. Looking at long-term trends. What's interesting about this year is how little real movement there was. The top five move around a little. Canada drops from first to fourth with a sixth-place finish at home. The US takes over at #1, thanks to their silver medal. Finland regains some of their placing lost to a couple of bad years. The Swiss move up and the Slovaks drop. Further down is where there is almost no real movement. Israel moves up five places while Australia drops.Will continue to track this as the years go by.

2015 Total 2016 Total 2017 Total 2018 Total 2019 Total
1Rus29251Rus29351Rus29251Can29251USA2940
2Swe29152Swe28802USA28952USA29152Rus2845
3Can29153Fin28603Can28753Swe28903Swe2840
4USA27904Can28354Swe28754Rus28354Can2840
5Fin27755USA28355Fin27305Cze27705Fin2825
6Svk27306Cze27256Cze27156Fin27156Cze2730
7Cze27157Svk27107Svk26757Svk26607Sui2700
8Sui25958Sui25508Den26408Den26058Svk2620
9Ger24709Den25309Sui25759Sui25859Den2540
10Den246510Blr239510Blr240510Blr243010Blr2400
11Nor238511Ger236511Lat239511Lat238511Kaz2400
12Lat236512Lat236512Ger234012Ger231012Ger2340
13Blr235513Nor233513Nor225013Kaz230513Lat2335
14Aut221514Aut227014Aut225014Aut223014Aut2215
15Slo219515Kaz216515Kaz221515Fra220515Nor2205
16Ita213016Ita215516Fra214016Nor217016Fra2205
17Kaz207017Slo207017Ita208517Pol204517Pol2050
18Pol206018Pol206018Pol205018Hun203518Hun2045
19Fra202019Fra204019Slo202019Ita200019Slo2030
20Ukr197520Ukr198020Ukr195020Slo199520Ita1955
21GBR188521GBR191021Hun193021Ukr194521Ukr1920
22Jpn186022Jpn186022GBR189022GBR181522Jpn1815
23Hun180023Hun181023Jpn182023Jpn180523Ltu1790
24Ltu172024Ltu173524Ltu177024Ltu180524GBR1760
25Ned166025Ned164025Est165525Est165525Est1715
26Cro162526Est164026Ned162026Kor163026Rou1630
27Rou159027Cro160527Rou160027Rou160527Kor1600
28Est158028Kor157528Cro157028Ned158528Esp1525
29Kor157529Rou155529Kor155529Cro150529Ned1505
30Esp149030Esp146030Esp145030Esp147030Cro1475
31Aus136531Srb137031Srb138031Srb141031Srb1455
32Srb136032Aus134532Bel133532Bel135032Bel1350
33Bel128533Bel131033Aus130533Mex126033Mex1270
34Isl127034Chn123034Mex121034Aus117534Isr1185
35Chn121035Isl116535Chn120035Chn117535Chn1180
36Nzl113536Mex113536Isl112036Tur115036Tur1150
37Mex110537Nzl112537Nzl109537Isl107537Aus1140
38Tur101538Tur99038Tur107038Nzl103038Bul1055
39RSA72039RSA87539RSA92039Isr99039Isl1035
40Bul62040Bul76540Bul82040Bul95540Nzl945
41Isr041Isr42041Isr71541RSA54041RSA890
42Tai042Tai042Tai36042Tai27042Tai815
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }.xl63 { }.xl64 { color: black; }
 

MeHateHe

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
2,461
2,794
After yesterday's gold medal game, I have compiled the top 20 Under-20 rankings for 2020, based on the Elite, Div 1A and Div 1B tournaments. Hungary and Estonia will almost certainly be 21 and 22, but I will wait until the last three tournaments have concluded in early February before posting the full rankings.

Canada has retaken the top spot in the u20 rankings, thanks to their gold medal win yesterday. The sixth place finish by the US dropped them into sixth. Switzerland moves up to sixth while the Czechs drop to seventh. Germany gets into the top 10 for the first time since 2015 and Kazakhstan leaps into 9th thanks to repeated finishes in the elite pool.

As always, these rankings are posted for amusement only. The more I do this, the more it is clear that the way the rankings are determined reward consistency rather than excellence. For example, Russia has been at or around the top of the charts since I started this experiment, yet have not won the tournament since 2011. Finland and Canada have both won the thing three times in the last 10 years, but both have been down around third or fourth. The difference is that Russia consistently wins its quarterfinal games where all of the other top five have lost QFs, in some cases, multiple times.

1Can2905
2Rus2880
3Swe2860
4USA2845
5Fin2840
6Sui2740
7Cze2695
8Svk2610
9Kaz2435
10Ger2415
11Den2390
12Blr2355
13Lat2330
14Aut2280
15Nor2225
16Fra2145
17Slo2090
18Pol2010
19Ukr1950
20Ita1900
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Czechboy

Easy schedules rule!
Apr 15, 2018
22,839
18,873
After yesterday's gold medal game, I have compiled the top 20 Under-20 rankings for 2020, based on the Elite, Div 1A and Div 1B tournaments. Hungary and Estonia will almost certainly be 21 and 22, but I will wait until the last three tournaments have concluded in early February before posting the full rankings.

Canada has retaken the top spot in the u20 rankings, thanks to their gold medal win yesterday. The sixth place finish by the US dropped them into sixth. Switzerland moves up to sixth while the Czechs drop to seventh. Germany gets into the top 10 for the first time since 2015 and Kazakhstan leaps into 9th thanks to repeated finishes in the elite pool.

As always, these rankings are posted for amusement only. The more I do this, the more it is clear that the way the rankings are determined reward consistency rather than excellence. For example, Russia has been at or around the top of the charts since I started this experiment, yet have not won the tournament since 2011. Finland and Canada have both won the thing three times in the last 10 years, but both have been down around third or fourth. The difference is that Russia consistently wins its quarterfinal games where all of the other top five have lost QFs, in some cases, multiple times.

1Can2905
2Rus2880
3Swe2860
4USA2845
5Fin2840
6Sui2740
7Cze2695
8Svk2610
9Kaz2435
10Ger2415
11Den2390
12Blr2355
13Lat2330
14Aut2280
15Nor2225
16Fra2145
17Slo2090
18Pol2010
19Ukr1950
20Ita1900
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Here come the Germans! Next years Junior will be real interesting.
 

Peiskos

Registered User
Jan 4, 2018
3,665
3,614
After yesterday's gold medal game, I have compiled the top 20 Under-20 rankings for 2020, based on the Elite, Div 1A and Div 1B tournaments. Hungary and Estonia will almost certainly be 21 and 22, but I will wait until the last three tournaments have concluded in early February before posting the full rankings.

Canada has retaken the top spot in the u20 rankings, thanks to their gold medal win yesterday. The sixth place finish by the US dropped them into sixth. Switzerland moves up to sixth while the Czechs drop to seventh. Germany gets into the top 10 for the first time since 2015 and Kazakhstan leaps into 9th thanks to repeated finishes in the elite pool.

As always, these rankings are posted for amusement only. The more I do this, the more it is clear that the way the rankings are determined reward consistency rather than excellence. For example, Russia has been at or around the top of the charts since I started this experiment, yet have not won the tournament since 2011. Finland and Canada have both won the thing three times in the last 10 years, but both have been down around third or fourth. The difference is that Russia consistently wins its quarterfinal games where all of the other top five have lost QFs, in some cases, multiple times.

1Can2905
2Rus2880
3Swe2860
4USA2845
5Fin2840
6Sui2740
7Cze2695
8Svk2610
9Kaz2435
10Ger2415
11Den2390
12Blr2355
13Lat2330
14Aut2280
15Nor2225
16Fra2145
17Slo2090
18Pol2010
19Ukr1950
20Ita1900
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I get that particular algorithms are used to determine this but idk it just doesn't seem right for Finland to be 5th when they have 2014, 2016 and 2019 World Junior Golds. It seems there is a legitimate error in the weighting of the medals when Russia hasn't won since 2011 yet are 2nd.

Since 2014 for ex

Finland
3 Gold (2014, 2016, 2019)
0 Silver
0 Bronze

Should be worth more than

Russia
0 Gold
3 Silver (2015, 2016, 2020)
3 Bronze (2014, 2017, 2019)

Yes Russia has twice the medal haul of Finland in this time, but c'mon...are those 6 medals heavier than 3 golds? I don't think so. Even more so when you see the US is above Finland too. It is what is is though.
 
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MeHateHe

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
2,461
2,794
I get that particular algorithms are used to determine this but idk it just doesn't seem right for Finland to be 5th when they have 2014, 2016 and 2019 World Junior Golds. It seems there is a legitimate error in the weighting of the medals when Russia hasn't won since 2011 yet are 2nd.

Since 2014 for ex

Finland
3 Gold (2014, 2016, 2019)
0 Silver
0 Bronze

Should be worth more than

Russia
0 Gold
3 Silver (2015, 2016, 2020)
3 Bronze (2014, 2017, 2019)

Yes Russia has twice the medal haul of Finland in this time, but c'mon...are those 6 medals heavier than 3 golds? I don't think so. Even more so when you see the US is above Finland too. It is what is is though.
Yup. I’m using the IIHF’s process for determining rankings, which, as I say, reward consistency rather than excellence. And it’s additionally problematic because one or two bad birth years would lead to singular poor results, like Finland’s ninth a few years back, causing them to drop.

I’ve said in the past that I think the value in this ranking for the U20s is in trends. I think what they show is that there is little difference in the top five, but that the Czechoslovak, Swiss and Slovaks are in a slightly lower tier, and further groupings lower down. I am going to plot this on a graph at some point to see if there is an easy illustration to this.
 

Uncle Rotter

Registered User
May 11, 2010
5,975
1,038
Kelowna, B.C.
After yesterday's gold medal game, I have compiled the top 20 Under-20 rankings for 2020, based on the Elite, Div 1A and Div 1B tournaments. Hungary and Estonia will almost certainly be 21 and 22, but I will wait until the last three tournaments have concluded in early February before posting the full rankings.

Canada has retaken the top spot in the u20 rankings, thanks to their gold medal win yesterday. The sixth place finish by the US dropped them into sixth. Switzerland moves up to sixth while the Czechs drop to seventh. Germany gets into the top 10 for the first time since 2015 and Kazakhstan leaps into 9th thanks to repeated finishes in the elite pool.

As always, these rankings are posted for amusement only. The more I do this, the more it is clear that the way the rankings are determined reward consistency rather than excellence. For example, Russia has been at or around the top of the charts since I started this experiment, yet have not won the tournament since 2011. Finland and Canada have both won the thing three times in the last 10 years, but both have been down around third or fourth. The difference is that Russia consistently wins its quarterfinal games where all of the other top five have lost QFs, in some cases, multiple times.

1Can2905
2Rus2880
3Swe2860
4USA2845
5Fin2840
6Sui2740
7Cze2695
8Svk2610
9Kaz2435
10Ger2415
11Den2390
12Blr2355
13Lat2330
14Aut2280
15Nor2225
16Fra2145
17Slo2090
18Pol2010
19Ukr1950
20Ita1900
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Kazakhstan's senior team is ranked 19th (10 lower)
 

MeHateHe

Registered User
Dec 24, 2006
2,461
2,794
Here are the updated rankings. Upon review earlier this year I discovered I had made a slight error in calculations over the years, not mirror how the senior rankings are compiled. Basically, the gold medal winner gets 1200 points and each succeeding place gets 20 points fewer. But, there are bonuses for winning medal round games in the elite pool, so first gets 1200, second gets 1160, third 1140, fourth 1100, fifth 1060, sixth 1040, seventh 1020, eighth 1000, ninth 980 and 10th 960. This rewards winning a bit more than a straight 20-point drop with each succeeding place. And then each year's point is multiplied by a percentage (100% for the most recent year, then 75%, 50% and 25% for each succeeding year) ending up with the overall total.

Again, blah blah blah, rankings mean nothing. This is just for fun. A poster above notes that a team like Finland, who has had three gold medal wins in the past decade, should be ranked higher. They've also had a ninth place finish (this will be the last year that result impacts the rankings) and have lost in the quarter final in the past four years, which will knock them down.

The rankings also move the Swiss up ahead of the Slovaks for the first time and sees the Kazakhs and Germans move into the top 10, a result of being in the elite pool for consecutive years, while the Danes drop out of the top 10 having failed to get back into the elite pool in two years. Lower down, movement over the six years of these rankings shows countries like the Netherlands (five places), Great Britain, (five places) and Australia (six places) dropping significantly while upward movement is from Estonia (four places).

Apologies again for the wonky formatting, which I can't correct, and appears when I copy the spreadsheet from Excel.
2015 Total 2016 Total 2017 Total 2018 Total 2019Total 2020 Total
1Rus28751Rus28851Rus28751Can28901USA29001Can2870
2Can28602Fin28202USA28502USA28752Rus27802Rus2820
3Swe28503Swe27953Can28153Swe28103Can27803Swe2790
4USA27104Can27654Swe27654Rus27654Fin27754USA2780
5Fin27055USA27655Fin26705Cze26705Swe27555Fin2770
6Svk26506Cze26256Cze26156Fin26356Cze26306Sui2640
7Cze26157Svk26257Svk25857Svk25657Sui26007Cze2595
8Sui24958Sui24508Den25358Den25058Svk25208Svk2510
9Ger23659Den24159Sui24759Sui24859Den24409Kaz2320
10Den234010Blr226510Blr227010Blr231010Lat231510Ger2285
11Nor225011Ger224511Lat226511Lat225011Blr227011Lat2275
12Lat223012Lat222012Ger220512Ger216512Kaz227012Den2270
13Blr220513Nor219513Nor210513Kaz215513Ger219013Blr2215
14Aut206514Aut212014Aut210014Aut208014Aut206514Aut2130
15Slo204515Kaz201515Kaz206515Fra205515Nor205515Nor2075
16Ita198016Ita200516Fra199016Nor202016Fra205516Fra1995
17Kaz192017Slo192017Ita193517Pol189517Pol190017Slo1940
18Pol191018Pol191018Pol190018Hun188518Hun189518Hun1930
19Fra189519Fra189019Slo187019Ita185019Slo188019Pol1860
20Ukr182520Ukr183020Ukr180020Slo184520Ita180520Ukr1815
21GBR173521GBR176021Hun178021Ukr179521Ukr179021Ita1750
22Jpn171022Jpn171022GBR174022GBR166522Jpn166522Jpn1660
23Hun165023Hun166023Jpn167023Jpn165523Ltu164023Est1645
24Ltu157024Ltu158524Ltu162024Ltu165524GBR161024Ltu1605
25Ned151025Ned149025Est150525Est150525Est156525GBR1585
26Rou144026Est149026Ned147026Kor148026Rou148026Rou1495
27Est143027Cro143027Rou145027Rou145527Kor145027Kor1415
28Cro142528Kor142528Cro142028Ned143528Esp137528Esp1415
29Kor142529Rou140529Kor140529Cro135529Ned135529Srb1350
30Esp134030Esp131030Esp130030Esp132030Cro132530Ned1320
31Aus121531Srb122031Srb123031Bel130031Srb130531Cro1260
32Srb121032Aus119532Bel118532Srb126032Bel127532Bel1230
33Bel113533Bel116033Aus115533Mex111033Mex112033Chn1115
34Isl112034Chn108034Mex106034Aus102534Isr103534Isr1080
35Chn106035Isl101535Chn105035Chn102535Chn103035Mex1035
36Nzl98536Mex98536Isl97036Tur100036Tur100036Tur990
37Mex95537Nzl97537Nzl94537Isl92537Aus99037Aus980
38Tur86538Tur84038Tur92038Nzl88038Bul90538Isl950
39RSA61539RSA74039RSA77039Isr85539Isl88539Bul880
40Bul53040Bul66040Bul70040Bul82040Nzl79540Nzl780
41Isr041Isr36041Isr61041RSA75041RSA74041RSA745
42Tai042Tai042Tai30042Tai50542Tai68042Tai735
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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