U20: (Unofficial)U20 World Rankings

Discussion in 'International Tournaments' started by MeHateHe, Feb 11, 2016.

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  1. MaxV

    MaxV Registered User

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    U20 rankings are year by year. Teams have weak generation of players, then strong generation.
     
  2. Mr Writer

    Mr Writer Registered User

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    Canada USA Sweden 1-2 and 3....seems about right to me.

    I didn't get my preferred Canada v USA GMG this year, so, let's hope for next year in Vancouver/Victoria.
     
  3. MeHateHe

    MeHateHe Registered User

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    The following is the nearly complete rankings following the Division III tournament's completion today in Bulgaria. I can't do a complete ranking until the Division III qualifying tournament in February in South Africa, which will include the hosts along with Turkmenistan and Chinese Taipei. Apologies for the formatting: copying and pasting directly from Excel is a little wonky for some reason.

    As I've said in the past, I think the ratings are imperfect tools for declaring anything about the state of any particular country's U20 program in one year, but I think over the course of several years, there is utility in looking at trends. The top four generally is interchangeable, although a few bad years for Finland (including a ninth place finish in 2017) is what dropped them out of the top five. Given that they won in 2016, that ninth in 2017, the 7th in 2015 and finishing out of the semifinals this year hurts them since the ranking system values consistency over excellence. The Czechs and Slovaks in around six and seven is appropriate for their performance and the movement of the Danes (ahead of the Swiss for the first time this year) indicates a slow uptick in their success.

    Lower down, the decline of programs like Germany (from 9th to 12th) and Norway (11th to 16th) seems evident, while countries like Kazakhstan (17th to 13th), France (19th to 15th) and Hungary (23rd to 18th) suggest steady progress. Other significant gains (from the minnows) are South Korea (29th to 26th) and Mexico (37th to 33rd). Gains in the Division II and Division III teams tend to be mercurial in the short term, so it's wise to take those gains with a whole handful of salt. Korea could conceivably benefit from greater interest brought on by the Olympics this year, so their program could get a shot in the arm.

    Despite what I've said above, I think you have to look at trends over 8-10 years to make this kind of ranking system have real value. I will continue to generate these rankings over the next several years, if only to satisfy my own curiosity. I'll continue to post the results here.

    table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }.xl63 { }.xl64 { color: black; }
    2015 Total 2016 Total 2017 Total2018 Total
    1Rus29251Rus29351Rus29251Can2925
    2Swe29152Swe28802USA28952USA2915
    3Can29153Fin28603Can28753Swe2890
    4USA27904Can28354Swe28754Rus2835
    5Fin27755USA28355Fin27305Cze2770
    6Svk27306Cze27256Cze27156Fin2715
    7Cze27157Svk27107Svk26757Svk2660
    8Sui25958Sui25508Den26408Den2605
    9Ger24709Den25309Sui25759Sui2585
    10Den246510Blr239510Blr240510Blr2430
    11Nor238511Ger236511Lat239511Lat2385
    12Lat236512Lat236512Ger234012Ger2310
    13Blr235513Nor233513Nor225013Kaz2305
    14Aut221514Aut227014Aut225014Aut2230
    15Slo219515Kaz216515Kaz221515Fra2205
    16Ita213016Ita215516Fra214016Nor2170
    17Kaz207017Slo207017Ita208517Pol2045
    18Pol206018Pol206018Pol205018Hun2035
    19Fra202019Fra204019Slo202019Ita2000
    20Ukr197520Ukr198020Ukr195020Slo1995
    21GBR188521GBR191021Hun193021Ukr1945
    22Jpn186022Jpn186022GBR189022GBR1815
    23Hun180023Hun181023Jpn182023Jpn1805
    24Ltu172024Ltu173524Ltu177024Ltu1805
    25Ned166025Ned164025Est165525Est1655
    26Cro162526Est164026Ned162026Kor1630
    27Rou159027Cro160527Rou160027Rou1605
    28Est158028Kor157528Cro157028Ned1585
    29Kor157529Rou155529Kor155529Cro1505
    30Esp149030Esp146030Esp145030Esp1470
    31Aus136531Srb137031Srb138031Srb1410
    32Srb136032Aus134532Bel133532Bel1350
    33Bel128533Bel131033Aus130533Mex1260
    34Isl127034Chn123034Mex121034Aus1175
    35Chn121035Isl116535Chn120035Chn1175
    36Nzl113536Mex113536Isl112036Tur1150
    37Mex110537Nzl112537Nzl109537Isl1075
    38Tur101538Tur99038Tur107038Nzl1030
    39RSA72039RSA87539RSA92039Isr990
    40Bul62040Bul76540Bul82040Bul955
    41Isr041Isr42041Isr71541RSA540
    42Tai042Tai042Tai36042Tai270
     
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  4. Uncle Rotter

    Uncle Rotter Registered User

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    Some comparisons with the current senior ratings (in brackets):
    Den 8 (14) + 6

    Nor 16 ( 9) - 7
    Slo 20 (15) -5
    Kor 26 (21) -5
     
  5. MeHateHe

    MeHateHe Registered User

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    Bump. Two tournaments now in the books so time to revisit these rankings. Kazakhstan looks like it will move up ahead of Germany just by dint of being in the elite division.
     
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  6. MeHateHe

    MeHateHe Registered User

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    Here are the most up-to-date rankings. Standard disclaimer: IIHF rankings are a joke. This has no bearing on anything, blah blah blah. Looking at long-term trends. What's interesting about this year is how little real movement there was. The top five move around a little. Canada drops from first to fourth with a sixth-place finish at home. The US takes over at #1, thanks to their silver medal. Finland regains some of their placing lost to a couple of bad years. The Swiss move up and the Slovaks drop. Further down is where there is almost no real movement. Israel moves up five places while Australia drops.Will continue to track this as the years go by.

    2015 Total2016 Total2017 Total2018 Total2019 Total
    1Rus29251Rus29351Rus29251Can29251USA2940
    2Swe29152Swe28802USA28952USA29152Rus2845
    3Can29153Fin28603Can28753Swe28903Swe2840
    4USA27904Can28354Swe28754Rus28354Can2840
    5Fin27755USA28355Fin27305Cze27705Fin2825
    6Svk27306Cze27256Cze27156Fin27156Cze2730
    7Cze27157Svk27107Svk26757Svk26607Sui2700
    8Sui25958Sui25508Den26408Den26058Svk2620
    9Ger24709Den25309Sui25759Sui25859Den2540
    10Den246510Blr239510Blr240510Blr243010Blr2400
    11Nor238511Ger236511Lat239511Lat238511Kaz2400
    12Lat236512Lat236512Ger234012Ger231012Ger2340
    13Blr235513Nor233513Nor225013Kaz230513Lat2335
    14Aut221514Aut227014Aut225014Aut223014Aut2215
    15Slo219515Kaz216515Kaz221515Fra220515Nor2205
    16Ita213016Ita215516Fra214016Nor217016Fra2205
    17Kaz207017Slo207017Ita208517Pol204517Pol2050
    18Pol206018Pol206018Pol205018Hun203518Hun2045
    19Fra202019Fra204019Slo202019Ita200019Slo2030
    20Ukr197520Ukr198020Ukr195020Slo199520Ita1955
    21GBR188521GBR191021Hun193021Ukr194521Ukr1920
    22Jpn186022Jpn186022GBR189022GBR181522Jpn1815
    23Hun180023Hun181023Jpn182023Jpn180523Ltu1790
    24Ltu172024Ltu173524Ltu177024Ltu180524GBR1760
    25Ned166025Ned164025Est165525Est165525Est1715
    26Cro162526Est164026Ned162026Kor163026Rou1630
    27Rou159027Cro160527Rou160027Rou160527Kor1600
    28Est158028Kor157528Cro157028Ned158528Esp1525
    29Kor157529Rou155529Kor155529Cro150529Ned1505
    30Esp149030Esp146030Esp145030Esp147030Cro1475
    31Aus136531Srb137031Srb138031Srb141031Srb1455
    32Srb136032Aus134532Bel133532Bel135032Bel1350
    33Bel128533Bel131033Aus130533Mex126033Mex1270
    34Isl127034Chn123034Mex121034Aus117534Isr1185
    35Chn121035Isl116535Chn120035Chn117535Chn1180
    36Nzl113536Mex113536Isl112036Tur115036Tur1150
    37Mex110537Nzl112537Nzl109537Isl107537Aus1140
    38Tur101538Tur99038Tur107038Nzl103038Bul1055
    39RSA72039RSA87539RSA92039Isr99039Isl1035
    40Bul62040Bul76540Bul82040Bul95540Nzl945
    41Isr041Isr42041Isr71541RSA54041RSA890
    42Tai042Tai042Tai36042Tai27042Tai815
    table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }.xl63 { }.xl64 { color: black; }
     
  7. MeHateHe

    MeHateHe Registered User

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    After yesterday's gold medal game, I have compiled the top 20 Under-20 rankings for 2020, based on the Elite, Div 1A and Div 1B tournaments. Hungary and Estonia will almost certainly be 21 and 22, but I will wait until the last three tournaments have concluded in early February before posting the full rankings.

    Canada has retaken the top spot in the u20 rankings, thanks to their gold medal win yesterday. The sixth place finish by the US dropped them into sixth. Switzerland moves up to sixth while the Czechs drop to seventh. Germany gets into the top 10 for the first time since 2015 and Kazakhstan leaps into 9th thanks to repeated finishes in the elite pool.

    As always, these rankings are posted for amusement only. The more I do this, the more it is clear that the way the rankings are determined reward consistency rather than excellence. For example, Russia has been at or around the top of the charts since I started this experiment, yet have not won the tournament since 2011. Finland and Canada have both won the thing three times in the last 10 years, but both have been down around third or fourth. The difference is that Russia consistently wins its quarterfinal games where all of the other top five have lost QFs, in some cases, multiple times.

    1Can2905
    2Rus2880
    3Swe2860
    4USA2845
    5Fin2840
    6Sui2740
    7Cze2695
    8Svk2610
    9Kaz2435
    10Ger2415
    11Den2390
    12Blr2355
    13Lat2330
    14Aut2280
    15Nor2225
    16Fra2145
    17Slo2090
    18Pol2010
    19Ukr1950
    20Ita1900
     
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  8. Czechboy

    Czechboy Registered User

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    Here come the Germans! Next years Junior will be real interesting.
     
  9. XeroKaos

    XeroKaos Registered User

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    I get that particular algorithms are used to determine this but idk it just doesn't seem right for Finland to be 5th when they have 2014, 2016 and 2019 World Junior Golds. It seems there is a legitimate error in the weighting of the medals when Russia hasn't won since 2011 yet are 2nd.

    Since 2014 for ex

    Finland
    3 Gold (2014, 2016, 2019)
    0 Silver
    0 Bronze

    Should be worth more than

    Russia
    0 Gold
    3 Silver (2015, 2016, 2020)
    3 Bronze (2014, 2017, 2019)

    Yes Russia has twice the medal haul of Finland in this time, but c'mon...are those 6 medals heavier than 3 golds? I don't think so. Even more so when you see the US is above Finland too. It is what is is though.
     
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  10. MeHateHe

    MeHateHe Registered User

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    Yup. I’m using the IIHF’s process for determining rankings, which, as I say, reward consistency rather than excellence. And it’s additionally problematic because one or two bad birth years would lead to singular poor results, like Finland’s ninth a few years back, causing them to drop.

    I’ve said in the past that I think the value in this ranking for the U20s is in trends. I think what they show is that there is little difference in the top five, but that the Czechoslovak, Swiss and Slovaks are in a slightly lower tier, and further groupings lower down. I am going to plot this on a graph at some point to see if there is an easy illustration to this.
     
  11. Uncle Rotter

    Uncle Rotter Registered User

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    Kazakhstan's senior team is ranked 19th (10 lower)
     
  12. MeHateHe

    MeHateHe Registered User

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    Here are the updated rankings. Upon review earlier this year I discovered I had made a slight error in calculations over the years, not mirror how the senior rankings are compiled. Basically, the gold medal winner gets 1200 points and each succeeding place gets 20 points fewer. But, there are bonuses for winning medal round games in the elite pool, so first gets 1200, second gets 1160, third 1140, fourth 1100, fifth 1060, sixth 1040, seventh 1020, eighth 1000, ninth 980 and 10th 960. This rewards winning a bit more than a straight 20-point drop with each succeeding place. And then each year's point is multiplied by a percentage (100% for the most recent year, then 75%, 50% and 25% for each succeeding year) ending up with the overall total.

    Again, blah blah blah, rankings mean nothing. This is just for fun. A poster above notes that a team like Finland, who has had three gold medal wins in the past decade, should be ranked higher. They've also had a ninth place finish (this will be the last year that result impacts the rankings) and have lost in the quarter final in the past four years, which will knock them down.

    The rankings also move the Swiss up ahead of the Slovaks for the first time and sees the Kazakhs and Germans move into the top 10, a result of being in the elite pool for consecutive years, while the Danes drop out of the top 10 having failed to get back into the elite pool in two years. Lower down, movement over the six years of these rankings shows countries like the Netherlands (five places), Great Britain, (five places) and Australia (six places) dropping significantly while upward movement is from Estonia (four places).

    Apologies again for the wonky formatting, which I can't correct, and appears when I copy the spreadsheet from Excel.
    2015 Total2016 Total2017 Total2018 Total2019Total2020 Total
    1Rus28751Rus28851Rus28751Can28901USA29001Can2870
    2Can28602Fin28202USA28502USA28752Rus27802Rus2820
    3Swe28503Swe27953Can28153Swe28103Can27803Swe2790
    4USA27104Can27654Swe27654Rus27654Fin27754USA2780
    5Fin27055USA27655Fin26705Cze26705Swe27555Fin2770
    6Svk26506Cze26256Cze26156Fin26356Cze26306Sui2640
    7Cze26157Svk26257Svk25857Svk25657Sui26007Cze2595
    8Sui24958Sui24508Den25358Den25058Svk25208Svk2510
    9Ger23659Den24159Sui24759Sui24859Den24409Kaz2320
    10Den234010Blr226510Blr227010Blr231010Lat231510Ger2285
    11Nor225011Ger224511Lat226511Lat225011Blr227011Lat2275
    12Lat223012Lat222012Ger220512Ger216512Kaz227012Den2270
    13Blr220513Nor219513Nor210513Kaz215513Ger219013Blr2215
    14Aut206514Aut212014Aut210014Aut208014Aut206514Aut2130
    15Slo204515Kaz201515Kaz206515Fra205515Nor205515Nor2075
    16Ita198016Ita200516Fra199016Nor202016Fra205516Fra1995
    17Kaz192017Slo192017Ita193517Pol189517Pol190017Slo1940
    18Pol191018Pol191018Pol190018Hun188518Hun189518Hun1930
    19Fra189519Fra189019Slo187019Ita185019Slo188019Pol1860
    20Ukr182520Ukr183020Ukr180020Slo184520Ita180520Ukr1815
    21GBR173521GBR176021Hun178021Ukr179521Ukr179021Ita1750
    22Jpn171022Jpn171022GBR174022GBR166522Jpn166522Jpn1660
    23Hun165023Hun166023Jpn167023Jpn165523Ltu164023Est1645
    24Ltu157024Ltu158524Ltu162024Ltu165524GBR161024Ltu1605
    25Ned151025Ned149025Est150525Est150525Est156525GBR1585
    26Rou144026Est149026Ned147026Kor148026Rou148026Rou1495
    27Est143027Cro143027Rou145027Rou145527Kor145027Kor1415
    28Cro142528Kor142528Cro142028Ned143528Esp137528Esp1415
    29Kor142529Rou140529Kor140529Cro135529Ned135529Srb1350
    30Esp134030Esp131030Esp130030Esp132030Cro132530Ned1320
    31Aus121531Srb122031Srb123031Bel130031Srb130531Cro1260
    32Srb121032Aus119532Bel118532Srb126032Bel127532Bel1230
    33Bel113533Bel116033Aus115533Mex111033Mex112033Chn1115
    34Isl112034Chn108034Mex106034Aus102534Isr103534Isr1080
    35Chn106035Isl101535Chn105035Chn102535Chn103035Mex1035
    36Nzl98536Mex98536Isl97036Tur100036Tur100036Tur990
    37Mex95537Nzl97537Nzl94537Isl92537Aus99037Aus980
    38Tur86538Tur84038Tur92038Nzl88038Bul90538Isl950
    39RSA61539RSA74039RSA77039Isr85539Isl88539Bul880
    40Bul53040Bul66040Bul70040Bul82040Nzl79540Nzl780
    41Isr041Isr36041Isr61041RSA75041RSA74041RSA745
    42Tai042Tai042Tai30042Tai50542Tai68042Tai735
     
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