Underlying numbers show Duchene’s value over Turris

[pucky]

I would be worried if I was a Sens fan. In today's NHL you can't be trading your future away. They have traded ALOT of their future away the past 2 seasons.

Thanks for Dahlin tho we are thankful.

I'm not sure why more fans aren't concerned and being more critical of Dorion. I thought the Sens' GM gave up Methot for nothing and I agree, the most recent history of trades the Sens have made is head scratching. They gave away two (?) 1st round picks which is a bad idea in most cases but the return was a slight upgrade on Turris. Even if Turris wasn't going to sign and they were going to trade him anyway, I don't recommend trading away 1st rounders too. If Duchene doesn't play 'lights out' hockey, there is going to be some major heat on the Sens' GM soon.

 

[pucky]

Everyone viewing this as 'Sens paid this to upgrade Turris to Duchene' is looking at it wrong. Turris was not going to be an Ottawa Senator next year. They used him as a piece in the trade knowing full-well they were going to lose him next year.

So what? Where does it say that they had to give up high draft picks too?

 

[pucky]

Do you even research?

OTTAWA
PROJECTED CAP HIT : $74,321,71
PROJECTED CAP SPACE : $678,282
(dont think Capfriendly removed macarthurs hit but even then we need that space for coming up contracts)

- Stone is a RFA end of this year and will demand a large pay increase.
- Ceci is RFA end of this year and will demand a moderate pay increase.
- Claessen is RFA end of this year and will demand a moderate pay increase.
- Karlsson will demand a large pay increase in 2019 (hope to god he resigns)

Edit:
Add Brass, and Dzingle also getting moderate pay increases in 2019.

If we were to sign Turris Sens would be locking themselves in. Turris isnt a true #1C. Great shot and vision. Terrible at winning 1v1 battles. Our PP has been atrocious for years even with king karl and hoffman quarterbacking and I lay part of the blame with Turri lack of speed and softness on the puck.

Are you hoping Duchene plays like crap and regresses so they don't have to pay him much? What is the point of your evaluation?

 

[alfstheman]

Are you hoping Duchene plays like crap and regresses so they don't have to pay him much? What is the point of your evaluation?

Haha not at all, im hoping Duch loves the lockerroom atmosphere and signs a friendly deal to be in a city thats close to his family and hometown friends


My point was in response to the comment that "Ottawa is a trainwreck financially and so couldnt afford Turris". While the more logical reason was that they are already close to the salary cap and signing Turris for 7-8 years would prevent them from getting a #1C (unless they were able to trade away Ryan/Phaneuf which I dont see any team biting on).

 

[alfstheman]

So what? Where does it say that they had to give up high draft picks too?

The 1st round definitely hurts. The thing is that top centers almost never become available and demand a premium. Ottawa has been desperate for one for a long time.

 

[FourRings]

To me, Duchene is better than Turris, but not worth the upgrade price from OTT's perspective. If you need to dig into underlying numbers to determine who is better, it tells me the upgrade is marginal at best.

 

[TB1299]

All you have to do is watch Duchene play with and without the puck and then watch Turris play.

Duchene creates so much more pressure, keeps the puck in the zone, creates way more chances. He is much stronger entering the zone, has a way better shot and is incredible at keeping the puck without losing it.

Points are one thing and the difference in PPG throughout their career has been pretty big. Yes, he was in a bad situation and his numbers dipped with a bad team and a trade looming for over a year but look at Turris when he was in a bad situation, his numbers where pretty bad there.

What the SENS gave up is nothing. None of those players and unless its pure luck, a late first round draft pick is not going to be a major impact.

This was not just a good trade it was a GREAT trade for Dorion. If he would have just given up Chabot for example it would have come back to kill him because the value of one really great player is exponential more than a bunch of average assets especially when you already have the stock full.

The Sens had a deep prospect pool and kept all of their top prospects.

This was incredible forseight, asset management.

What people don't remember is that his is a cap and sure Turris is a great guy and a good player but IMO it was obvious that the SENS are in the business or trying to build a winner and Turris was not a long term answer for them.

Brilliant move.

 

[Baby Ryan]

To me, Duchene is better than Turris, but not worth the upgrade price from OTT's perspective. If you need to dig into underlying numbers to determine who is better, it tells me the upgrade is marginal at best.

Not necessarily, all situations have context around them that are valuable. Just looking at the context of information, does not devalue it vs the actual context itself.

 

[Sensin5]

I'm not sure why more fans aren't concerned and being more critical of Dorion. I thought the Sens' GM gave up Methot for nothing and I agree, the most recent history of trades the Sens have made is head scratching. They gave away two (?) 1st round picks which is a bad idea in most cases but the return was a slight upgrade on Turris. Even if Turris wasn't going to sign and they were going to trade him anyway, I don't recommend trading away 1st rounders too. If Duchene doesn't play 'lights out' hockey, there is going to be some major heat on the Sens' GM soon.

Because that would require almost no knowledge or understanding of the situation. We got a bona fide top line centre - rarely available via trade - in exchange for a very good 1B centre who was not going to re-sign with our team. We have an abundance of top notch prospects and this will not touch the best of them one bit. Picks rarely turn into NHL players and even more rarely do they turn into stars. Sens draft and develop very well and we know what we have and what it should turn into. Not enough room for everyone.

 

[SensFactor]

I would be worried if I was a Sens fan. In today's NHL you can't be trading your future away. They have traded ALOT of their future away the past 2 seasons.

Thanks for Dahlin tho we are thankful.

Sens have tons of future waiting in the wings. Sens draft extremely well and didn't give up much of their future at all. There is no guarantee Dahlen makes the NHL either. He hasn't played a single game in the NHL.

 

[Goose]

I didn’t research, I had no idea Ottawa was at the cap, that does change things. I still can’t feel warm and fuzzy about things but I’m sure no one cares.

Sometimes I give opinions without researching because it’s a message board. It happens. I don’t really care because when I am wrong there are no shortage of people to point it out:

 

[alfstheman]

I didn’t research, I had no idea Ottawa was at the cap, that does change things. I still can’t feel warm and fuzzy about things but I’m sure no one cares.

Sometimes I give opinions without researching because it’s a message board. It happens. I don’t really care because when I am wrong there are no shortage of people to point it out:

No worries, Melnyk can be thrifty definitely but hes done pretty well opening up the pocketbook lately. Sens management really must think they have a chance to win it with the current team (especially after last years run) which is why they sacrificed some of ottawas future to go hard the next 2 years.

If duche gets close to a ppg next 2 years and then resigns at a reasonable contract Dorian will look like a genius. If hes another #2C getting 55 pts and doesnt resign it will be a terrible trade. Only time will tell but I have good feelings him and Hoffman will be magic. Hoffman has been dying to play with someone who can match his speed