GDT: UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

[MMC]

Date: March 4, 2023
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: 10 pm ET/7 pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
Women's Flyweight Championship bout: Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Alexa Grasso
Welterweight bout: Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Lightweight bout: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner
Middleweight bout: Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN)

Bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt vs. Trevin Jones
Middleweight bout: Derek Brunson vs. Dricus du Plessis
Women's Flyweight bout: Viviane Araujo vs. Amanda Ribas
Middleweight bout: Julian Marquez vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

EARLY PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

Welterweight bout: Ian Garry vs. Song Kenan
Bantamweight bout: Mana Martinez vs. Cameron Saaiman
Women's Strawweight bout: Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci
Bantamweight bout: Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Farid Basharat
Lightweight bout: Esteban Ribovics vs. Loik Radzhabov​

Click to read more...

 

[I am not exposed]

Great card. Shame I'm going to probably miss it. Oh well.

My picks in bold for the main card:

Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane (Jones too smart and Gane was taken down by Ngannou multiple times lol)
Women's Flyweight Championship bout: Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Alexa Grasso (Actually think this will be close, but going for the champ)
Welterweight bout: Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (Good test for Shavkat but he should prevail quite easily)
Lightweight bout: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner (I don't rate Gamrot that highly and think he is too one dimensional. I think Turner wins this easily)
Middleweight bout: Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett (Actually have no idea about this one! But let's go for the new guy!)

 

[m9]

I feel like it's been forever since we had a huge card and I can't wait. Volk/Islam was fine but the card depth was awful. A bunch of middling PPVs & awful Fight Nights in between and I think November @ MSG was the last big PPV.

Pretty conflicted on Gane/Jones. The version of Jones that we saw at the end of his 205 run will lose to Cyril Gane. But, I assume he's made improvements since then. Jones obviously the big wrestling advantage, and as long as he uses it then he should win.

It's possible that Shevchenko showed some flaws in the Santos fight, but more than anything I just think Talia Santos is really good. I don't think Grasso is at the same level as either of them so I think this will be an easier fight for Shevchenko.

Rakhmonov looks like the real deal to me and I think he will finish Geoff Neal.

Gamrot v Turner & DDP v Brunson are just really good fights. Excited to watch Nickal, and I'm always interested in watching Garbrandt.

Even some of the other names buried - Araujo/Ribas, Ian Garry.. just an excellent card.

 

[pistolpete11]

Yeah, this card feels massive given the relatively poor quality we've been getting outside of the main and sometimes co-mains recently.

Jones-Gane : Jones said "this isn't a kickboxing match" in the UFC Countdown. That has kind of made up my mind for me. I've got Jones. There are still questions about the time off, the added weight, etc., but the biggest question for me was if he would use his wrestling. In a stand up fight, I'd take Gane. I think Gane is probably faster than Jones at HW, the couple of times that Jones has struggled has been against longer guys, and Gane's a smart striker. If Jones uses his wrestling, though, he should win. No way Gane's gotten that much better at wrestling since the Francis fight.

Valentina-Grasso : I've got Valentina, but I'm really curious to see this one. It's possible Santos is just that good and it's possible that Valentina struggles more with grapplers, but it's also possible the division is starting to catch up and/or Valentina is declining. Valentina should win and she should win convincingly, but I can't shake that little nugget in my mind of "but what if she doesn't?"

Neal-Rakhmonov : I've got Rakhmonov. Dude's a killer.

Gamrot-Turner : Don't really know. I agree Gamrot is one dimensional, but he's pretty good at that dimension and I don't know how Turner will be able to handle it.

Nickal-Pickett : As a PSU alum, of course I am picking Nickal, but given the odds, seems like the safe pick anyway lol. I don't want them to rush Nickal, though. Incredible wrestling pedigree and all that, but this is MMA.

Garbrandt-Jones : This is Cody's first real step back in competition. Absolutely needs a win.

Brunson-du Plessis : The fight against Till had me pumping the breaks on du Plessis. I thought Brunson was talking about retiring, though, so that's usually a red flag, too. I'll take Brunson, especially with the odds.

Ribas-Araujo : I wish Ribas would just commit to 115. As primarily a grappler, I don't think she's strong enough for 125 and doesn't have the power to take advantage of any striking speed advantage.

 

[Moncherry]

Don't really keep up with MMA anymore but with Gane vs Jones and Shavkat fighting, I'll probably tune in.

Completely disagree with the general sentiment concerning the main event, I think Gane is the clear favourite.

The wrestling variable will not be as big a factor as people are making it out to be. I think everyone is putting too much stock into Ngannou taking Gane to the ground and keeping him there, because for one Ngannou's wrestling clearly improved by leaps and bounds (Stipe rematch proved this), and even if JJ's wrestling ability is much better than Ngannou's, I'd imagine it's more difficult to get Ngannou off you than it would be Jones. Gane also might have been caught off guard by Ngannou taking it to the ground, he will obviously be training for and expecting that from Jones this time around. I also question if Jones is the wrestling god some are making him out to be.

I think the gap in wrestling ability will be less of a factor than Jones going up in weight class. The physical advantages he usually has over his opponents will be neutralized, and he won't even have the benefit of superior technical ability or athleticism because he's fighting Gane, not your typical HW who is mediocre in that regard. His conditioning, speed, and movement will all likely be reduced after transforming his physique. Not good when you're fighting an incredibly athletic 250lb guy who bounces around like a lightweight. I think Jones could have success at HW, but Gane is a different calibre of fighter.

Then we have the lay-off, and the the fact that Jones did not look very impressive his last couple of fights against who I think is considerably worse opposition.

I think Jones will have little for him standing, will try to engage the wrestling and not have as easy a time with it as everyone thinks, and I think there's a very good chance Gane eventually finishes Jones.

 

[m9]

Don't really keep up with MMA anymore but with Gane vs Jones and Shavkat fighting, I'll probably tune in.

Completely disagree with the general sentiment concerning the main event, I think Gane is the clear favourite.

The wrestling variable will not be as big a factor as people are making it out to be. I think everyone is putting too much stock into Ngannou taking Gane to the ground and keeping him there, because for one Ngannou's wrestling clearly improved by leaps and bounds (Stipe rematch proved this), and even if JJ's wrestling ability is much better than Ngannou's, I'd imagine it's more difficult to get Ngannou off you than it would be Jones. Gane also might have been caught off guard by Ngannou taking it to the ground, he will obviously be training for and expecting that from Jones this time around. I also question if Jones is the wrestling god some are making him out to be.

I think the gap in wrestling ability will be less of a factor than Jones going up in weight class. The physical advantages he usually has over his opponents will be neutralized, and he won't even have the benefit of superior technical ability or athleticism because he's fighting Gane, not your typical HW who is mediocre in that regard. His conditioning, speed, and movement will all likely be reduced after transforming his physique. Not good when you're fighting an incredibly athletic 250lb guy who bounces around like a lightweight. I think Jones could have success at HW, but Gane is a different calibre of fighter.

Then we have the lay-off, and the the fact that Jones did not look very impressive his last couple of fights against who I think is considerably worse opposition.

I think Jones will have little for him standing, will try to engage the wrestling and not have as easy a time with it as everyone thinks, and I think there's a very good chance Gane eventually finishes Jones.

Well said.

This is where I was at initially with the fight, but I've just come back around and have flpped to picking Jones just purely on the basis of him using his wrestling. I am very hestitant though for all of the reasons you've presented here.

Should be said that Jon Jones is the betting favorite, around -160 or so.

 

[Nakatomi]

The X factor in the main event will be Jones inevitably committing an egregious foul of some sort that only earns a warning.

 

[CDJ]

If Gane is the dog it would be stupid for me not to bet on him

 

[I am not exposed]

Don't really keep up with MMA anymore but with Gane vs Jones and Shavkat fighting, I'll probably tune in.

Completely disagree with the general sentiment concerning the main event, I think Gane is the clear favourite.

The wrestling variable will not be as big a factor as people are making it out to be. I think everyone is putting too much stock into Ngannou taking Gane to the ground and keeping him there, because for one Ngannou's wrestling clearly improved by leaps and bounds (Stipe rematch proved this), and even if JJ's wrestling ability is much better than Ngannou's, I'd imagine it's more difficult to get Ngannou off you than it would be Jones. Gane also might have been caught off guard by Ngannou taking it to the ground, he will obviously be training for and expecting that from Jones this time around. I also question if Jones is the wrestling god some are making him out to be.

I think the gap in wrestling ability will be less of a factor than Jones going up in weight class. The physical advantages he usually has over his opponents will be neutralized, and he won't even have the benefit of superior technical ability or athleticism because he's fighting Gane, not your typical HW who is mediocre in that regard. His conditioning, speed, and movement will all likely be reduced after transforming his physique. Not good when you're fighting an incredibly athletic 250lb guy who bounces around like a lightweight. I think Jones could have success at HW, but Gane is a different calibre of fighter.

Then we have the lay-off, and the the fact that Jones did not look very impressive his last couple of fights against who I think is considerably worse opposition.

I think Jones will have little for him standing, will try to engage the wrestling and not have as easy a time with it as everyone thinks, and I think there's a very good chance Gane eventually finishes Jones.

That's a shame as I've enjoyed reading your comments on the UFC over the years.

 

[pistolpete11]

Don't really keep up with MMA anymore but with Gane vs Jones and Shavkat fighting, I'll probably tune in.

Completely disagree with the general sentiment concerning the main event, I think Gane is the clear favourite.

The wrestling variable will not be as big a factor as people are making it out to be. I think everyone is putting too much stock into Ngannou taking Gane to the ground and keeping him there, because for one Ngannou's wrestling clearly improved by leaps and bounds (Stipe rematch proved this), and even if JJ's wrestling ability is much better than Ngannou's, I'd imagine it's more difficult to get Ngannou off you than it would be Jones. Gane also might have been caught off guard by Ngannou taking it to the ground, he will obviously be training for and expecting that from Jones this time around. I also question if Jones is the wrestling god some are making him out to be.

I think the gap in wrestling ability will be less of a factor than Jones going up in weight class. The physical advantages he usually has over his opponents will be neutralized, and he won't even have the benefit of superior technical ability or athleticism because he's fighting Gane, not your typical HW who is mediocre in that regard. His conditioning, speed, and movement will all likely be reduced after transforming his physique. Not good when you're fighting an incredibly athletic 250lb guy who bounces around like a lightweight. I think Jones could have success at HW, but Gane is a different calibre of fighter.

Then we have the lay-off, and the the fact that Jones did not look very impressive his last couple of fights against who I think is considerably worse opposition.

I think Jones will have little for him standing, will try to engage the wrestling and not have as easy a time with it as everyone thinks, and I think there's a very good chance Gane eventually finishes Jones.

Francis' wrestling improved, but he's still not anywhere near the wrestler that Jones is. He also had a torn MCL and ACL going into that fight and was still able to get the takedowns and hold him down.

My only concern with Jones' wrestling would be his cardio due to the added weight and his age. Wrestling can take a lot out of you, especially the older you are and the heavier you are. Otherwise, though, I think it will be a massive advantage for him.

 

[CDJ]

Francis' wrestling improved, but he's still not anywhere near the wrestler that Jones is. He also had a torn MCL and ACL going into that fight and was still able to get the takedowns and hold him down.

My only concern with Jones' wrestling would be his cardio due to the added weight and his age. Wrestling can take a lot out of you, especially the older you are and the heavier you are. Otherwise, though, I think it will be a massive advantage for him.

Jon’s offensive wrestling didn’t look great against Reyes either. I think Gane’s size and athleticism are going to pose problems for him. Jon’s gas tank will be interesting to see too

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Not much else to add... this card is legit too to bottom awesome. Garry, Basharat and Saaimam on the early prelims is pretty awesome. Can't wait til Saturday.

 

[Moncherry]

Francis' wrestling improved, but he's still not anywhere near the wrestler that Jones is. He also had a torn MCL and ACL going into that fight and was still able to get the takedowns and hold him down.

My only concern with Jones' wrestling would be his cardio due to the added weight and his age. Wrestling can take a lot out of you, especially the older you are and the heavier you are. Otherwise, though, I think it will be a massive advantage for him.

I don't think Ngannou became some great wrestler either, I just think the narrative of "even Ngannou managed to take him down" doesn't tell the whole story. If someone as big and strong as Ngannou gets a hold of you, you're probably going to be in a struggle regardless of wrestling ability.

 

[OKR]

Jones has the overall skill advantage, he is the better wrestler and his striking ability isn’t that far from to Gane’s, a lot will probably come down to if Jones has ring rust. Don’t think Jones going up a weight class has that much impact since he was already pretty huge for a light-heavyweight and his style has never been dependant on size . Apprently he is now 155lbs which is pretty much the size Ngannou is.

Gane has the advantage due to it being his natural weight class and him being clearly the more experienced striker and having no questionmarks about his tank at that size, but he has also never faced a fighter with the overall skillset of Jones who can hurt you on the mat and on his feet.

If Jones manages to out wrestle Gane he could wear him down enough to neutralize his advantage in striking, but Gane could also very well outstrike Jones early so that Jones doesn’t get a chance to wear him down enough.

 

[jcs0218]

I hope Jones loses.

I have no idea how so many people consider him the greatest UFC fighter of all-time considering his doping history.

Does anyone in 2023 consider Lance Armstrong the greatest cycling athlete of all-time? Not that I am aware of, and nor should they.

Besides, for every time an athlete has been caught doping, you can rest assured that they have been doping 10X as much and simply weren't ever caught the other times.

His legacy is very tainted, in my opinion.

 

[MMC]

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So thats probably 20 pounds over what he fought at, at LHW.

 

[MMC]

 

[16Skippy]

I keep going back on forth between Jones and Gane. There's just so many question marks Jones between his time off, moving up a weight class, lack luster previous fights at 205. But I just can't imagine him getting beaten down. Or maybe I can. The only guys he really struggled with were the tall guys and Gane is 6'5. Still have time before I make a bet lol.

Grasso is one of my favorite WMMA fighters, will be rooting for her but not betting on her. I think her only path is to win is a close decision, compared to all the different ways Valentina could conceivable win.

 

[MMC]

 

[CDJ]

The more I think about it the more I lean Jones

 

[I am not exposed]

View attachment 662124

 

[MMC]

 

[MMC]

Neal weighs in at 175

 

[pistolpete11]

Watched a little of the press conference, but it was a little bit boring. Even moreso than usual. Not many characters on this card.

The one thing I noted was that people actually root for Jon Jones. I'm not surprised, but it always boggles my mind.