GDT: UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya

[Avs_19]

Date: March 6, 2021
Venue: UFC Apex
City: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time: 10 pm ET/7 pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jan Błachowicz (c) vs. Israel Adesanya
Women’s Featherweight Championship bout: Amanda Nunes (c) vs. Megan Anderson
Bantamweight Championship bout: Petr Yan (c) vs. Aljamain Sterling
Lightweight bout: Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober
Light Heavyweight bout: Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakić

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, TSN 5)

Bantamweight bout: Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney
Bantamweight bout: Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips
Flyweight bout: Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov
Flyweight bout: Rogério Bontorin vs. Kai Kara-France

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

Flyweight bout: Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa
Light Heavyweight bout: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Carlos Ulberg
Welterweight bout: Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews
Women’s Strawweight bout: Lívia Renata Souza vs. Amanda Lemos
Lightweight bout: Uroš Medić vs. Aalon Cruz
Bantamweight bout: Mario Bautista vs. Trevin Jones​

Click to read more...

 

[Chaels Arms]

Even the prelims are stacked.

 

[CDJ]

The prelim is a good fight night card and the main card is probably the card of the year

plz have mercy on us covid gods

 

[m9]

Usually I would wait until later in the week, but f*** it I'm feeling optimistic. What a card, as of today.

Pretty sure I pick against Błachowicz every fight and he usually proves me wrong. The problem is that I can't pick against Adesanya at this point. Blachowicz obviously has his methods to victory but I'm going Adesanya by 3rd round TKO. But hey, prove me wrong Jan like you always do.

Speaking of not being able to pick against someone, I'm not picking against Nunes. I think people have always been intrigued about what Anderson could do against the top of 145lbs. The problem is she's gotten this title shot in a very underwhelming way with two quick wins over two very low-level fighters. Nunes hasn't had a finish in her last two fights and this feels like one of those fights where she wants to get a finish, so I'm going with the rare submission win for Nunes here.

I don't have a great read on Yan/Sterling. Yan looked good against Aldo, but Aljo presents a different challenge. If Sterling can take him down, he can win. I'm going against the grain a little bit here and picking Sterling to win a super close decision, maybe even a split.

Excited to see Makhachev fight. I think Dober is a really appropriate fight but it's a fight that Makhachev should win.

Santos/Rakic as the first fight of the PPV is ridiculous. It feels like there have been recent PPVs with far worse co-main events than this fight. Rakic has been known for his KOs in the past but he showed something new vs Anthony Smith. It was boring as hell, but that's what he needs to do again here. This fight's range could be FOTN or worst fight on the card. I like Rakic by decision, but could go either way.

Love the Cruz/Kenney fight, veteran vs prospect. Legit don't know where this one goes, but it's another FOTN candidate and my WEC-bias will have me picking Cruz.

Won't dig in too much to the rest of the card, but Sean Brady is the guy I'm keeping an eye on. Matthews is a tough test but if Brady is legit we'll find out this weekend.

And we have a top5 flyweight bout that I didn't even get around to mentioning. What a card.

 

[CDJ]

I still can’t get over what Jan did to Reyes and his rib cage

I’ve never seen anything like that happen so quickly. A couple body shots and his side was dark red and purple- at that point I knew I had won my bet and it was only a matter of time before the head was available for the taking


My fav fighter Thiago Santos is back (knock on wood) <3

 

[pistolpete11]

Thanks for putting this one up early @Avs_19.

Stacked card. I'm sure there's some people out there that are too cool for school and will try to shit on it, but it's got everything.

There's obviously questions with Izzy moving up a weight class and I didn't count out Jan vs. Reyes.....but I think Izzy takes this. Jan is strong and technical, but I think Izzy is just on another level when it comes to striking in the UFC and will be much, much, much faster. Jan has that Polish Power and will be smarter than someone like Costa, but I think he's going to have a hard time landing on Izzy or cornering him against the cage.

How do you not pick Nunes? This would be one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Anderson has length and.....The only way Nunes loses is if she's one foot out the door with the kid and all that, but I expect her to make some quick work of Anderson.

Yan-Sterling, no f***ing idea. Love this fight and hope it's a classic and we get to see a rematch down the line since both are still relatively young.

I think Islam's hype exceeds his resume to this point, but Dober is, while a solid fighter, not the highest level either IMO. So Islam should win.

Santos-Rakic another toss up in my mind. If I had to pick, I'd probably go Rakic. Santos is long in the tooth and I still have questions about his knees. I agree with @m9, could be a boring one or an exciting one. I think both will be cautious of the other's power so it could be boring or one could land that bomb.

Cruz-Kenney without knowing a ton about Kenney, I'll stick with the same reasoning for Santos-Rakic and go with Kenney. Cruz is up there in age, only has 1 fight in the last 4+ years and it was a KO loss to a guy coming up a weight class, and hasn't won in 5 years. I think his time has past, but he's obviously a smart fighter and Kennney's not the most experienced.

Hoping for a Joey B. win because I like Joey B. and hoping for an Askarov win because it would be better for the division.

 

[CDJ]

Only way Santos has boring fights is if he’s taken down and controlled on the ground

Now granted Rakic just did that to Smith but I don’t see him wanting to go that route two fights in a row. It’s not his strength. I think we see a finish

I have no clue what to make of Cruz-Kenney. I really like Kenney though

 

[darko]

I like Sterling but Yan is a different beast. Don't think Anderson will trouble Nunes too much. Brain is saying Jan but heart is saying Izzy.

 

[darko]

Man Card for ages but Prelims are excellent too. Cruz, KKF, Benavidez, Jake Matthews.

Hopefully no cancellations in the next few days but this is the best card we've ever had IMO.

 

[Avs_19]

I'm with @m9 with the main event. I usually underestimate and pick against Jan, he proves me and everyone else wrong, and I'm going to do it again here. The power is the x-factor for both of them because we know Jan can knock anyone out and we don't know how Adesanya's will translate to LHW, even though he has fought at higher weight classes in kick boxing. However, I just can't pick against Adesanya. He's too good and technical of a striker and should have a big speed/quickness advantage. We've also seen Jan run in wildly at times while trying to land his shots and that's the last thing you want to do against Adesanya. Jan may not do that in this fight but I still think Adesanya finishes him.

Nunes losing this fight would be shocking. In some fights you might talk yourself into an upset or at least make the case for the underdog because of certain potential advantages. Like Spencer's grappling, GDR's technical striking, Cyborg's power (she wasn't the underdog though), Valentina's speed and striking, etc but I don't think there's anything Anderson does better than Nunes. She has the reach advantage but that's about it.

Yan/Sterling is the toughest one to predict. I'm a big Yan fan and love his striking so I'm picking him but we haven't seen him against someone like Sterling. Sterling's pretty big and he can wrestle so there's definitely a path for him to win. Either way, we'll find out just how good Yan is.

Great card from top to bottom with plenty of other good fights. It's one of those things where you'd like them to spread the wealth a bit because of how shallow some of the recent cards have been but at the same time it makes one of these type of events feel extra special.

 

[Chaels Arms]

I'm interested to see how Izzy looks at weigh ins. I listened to his interview with Helwani and he said not to be surprised if he shows up at weigh ins around 193. He's not doing anything different regarding weight/muscle mass from when he fights at MW. He said if he had to he could easily make the weight for MW this week. He could just be throwing everyone off course and show up weighing 205. Blachowicz told Helwani in the same episode he anticipates showing up at the Octagon around 215-220 lbs. It'll be interesting to see how this goes for Izzy just from that perspective alone especially given the fact Jones is taking the complete opposite approach for his move to HW.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm interested to see how Izzy looks at weigh ins. I listened to his interview with Helwani and he said not to be surprised if he shows up at weigh ins around 193. He's not doing anything different regarding weight/muscle mass from when he fights at MW. He said if he had to he could easily make the weight for MW this week. He could just be throwing everyone off course and show up weighing 205. Blachowicz told Helwani in the same episode he anticipates showing up at the Octagon around 215-220 lbs. It'll be interesting to see how this goes for Izzy just from that perspective alone especially given the fact Jones is taking the complete opposite approach for his move to HW.

We'll see how it goes, but I tend to agree with Izzy's school of thought here. Don't change your body just because you are changing weight classes unless you take enough time off to do it properly (which maybe Jones is, who knows?). Suddenly putting on a bunch of weight is going to slow you down, limit your cardio, throw off your timing, etc. Putting on an extra 10lbs isn't going to suddenly give you Francis power, so keep your speed, timing, and precision.....but what the f*** do I know.

I'd be surprised if he weighed 193, though. That means he either cut some weight just to prove a point or he walks around only 8lbs above his fighting weight. He's not a big MW, but damn if that's true.

 

[chicagoskycam]

I kind of wish they weighed all these guys again just before the fights, that would be fun.

 

[m9]

I'll wait to see what Adesanya actually weighs in at - I will be very surprised if he's under 195.

 

[bov]

Awesome card. I'm most excited for Yan/Sterling but this thing is stacked up and down. I'll go with Izzy, just think he's too talented and smart enough to fight the right way to get it done. But every time I count out Blachowicz, that Polish Power makes an appearance. Nothing would shock me here.

I think it's Aljo's time to shine. The guy gets better and better with every appearance, and just seems destined to hold a title. Has every tool you want in a champion, plus charisma on top of that. While the odds are a fair representation of the competitiveness of this matchup, I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Sterling makes a real statement here. Yan could do some damage on the feet, but I think Sterling is good enough everywhere to make this difficult no matter where the fight takes place. On the ground, it's no contest imo.

I'll give Anderson a small chance because she has some pop and is a big, strong fighter with the opportunity of a lifetime. But can't pick against Nunes here. I think she takes this in decisive fashion but I think Anderson is a bit more likely to pull off an upset than Felicia Spencer was.

Leaning Makhachev and Santos to round out the main card but those ones could be interesting, I mean Rakic is probably the better fighter in his matchup but I feel like he may get caught.

Tons of other great fights, I'm picking Joe B and Cruz to get back in the win column. Sean Brady is another really intriguing fighter, thinking he takes out Jake Matthews. Don't really have picks for the rest, just can't wait for what will surely be a a fun night of fights.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

Adesanya just likes to hear himself talk. He's not coming in at 193. I don't even think he'll come in sub 200. That said, Jan should still have 20 on him in the cage. He's gotta be effective with it.

I rewatched the Jan-Rockhold fight and it doesn't give me much confidence here. Rockhold actually had some success early on. Jan can win, but he's gotta fight a near perfect fight.

I don't wanna say Adesanya's nervous, but his demeanor was a little different than usual at the faceoffs. I think the gravity of the moment/opportunity was really starting to sink in.

We obviously knew this, but man Anderson is huge. I don't really see a path to victory here for her but I'd just take a somewhat competitive fight.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Izy -225
Nunes - 1100

I might bet against Izy... I don't think we see Izy knocking Jan out but who knows.

 

[CDJ]

Just struck me that Jan Blachowicz is main-eventing one of the biggest and best PPV cards of all time

 

[LyricalLyricist]

No disrespect to Anderson but UFC needs to either recruit for 145 lb women's division or cut it. There's not much going on there. Add some recruits and see what happens.

 

[Perennial]

Megan Anderson looked like a tranny at the face off...

I had to do a Google search to be sure she was actually a woman

 

[Chaels Arms]

Izzy weighed in at 201. He just busted out a box of pizza on the scale lol.

 

[pistolpete11]

No disrespect to Anderson but UFC needs to either recruit for 145 lb women's division or cut it. There's not much going on there. Add some recruits and see what happens.

I won't lose any sleep over it if they cut it, but I think WFW is here to stay at least until Nunes retires. That's fine by me. We see Nunes beat someone up once a year at 145lb and maybe a "#1 contender" fight on some shitty Fight Night card throughout the year and that's basically it. It will pay off if someone ever beats Nunes and until then, it helps promote the WGOAT as the champ-champ.

I look at it kind of like MFLW during Mighty Mouse's run. Just don't force it down our throats and maybe something happens that makes us care about it. Cejudo beating Mighty Mouse generated some buzz which gave us Cejudo-TJ which was a decently big fight. Then Fig-Joey B. 1 was OK and then the ass whooping in Fig-Joey B. 2 created some more buzz. Which all lead up to one of the top 3 fights of 2020 with Fig-Moreno and now one of the more highly anticipated fights of 2021 with the rematch. I never would have guessed 2-3 years ago that I would be looking forward to a FLW fight.

 

[m9]

I'll wait to see what Adesanya actually weighs in at - I will be very surprised if he's under 195.

Adesanya just likes to hear himself talk. He's not coming in at 193. I don't even think he'll come in sub 200. That said, Jan should still have 20 on him in the cage. He's gotta be effective with it.

I rewatched the Jan-Rockhold fight and it doesn't give me much confidence here. Rockhold actually had some success early on. Jan can win, but he's gotta fight a near perfect fight.

I don't wanna say Adesanya's nervous, but his demeanor was a little different than usual at the faceoffs. I think the gravity of the moment/opportunity was really starting to sink in.

We obviously knew this, but man Anderson is huge. I don't really see a path to victory here for her but I'd just take a somewhat competitive fight.

Izzy weighed in at 201. He just busted out a box of pizza on the scale lol.

Not a big surprise. But it's still noteworthy that he came in a few pounds lower for a title fight, you don't see that too often.

 

[m9]

I won't lose any sleep over it if they cut it, but I think WFW is here to stay at least until Nunes retires. That's fine by me. We see Nunes beat someone up once a year at 145lb and maybe a "#1 contender" fight on some shitty Fight Night card throughout the year and that's basically it. It will pay off if someone ever beats Nunes and until then, it helps promote the WGOAT as the champ-champ.

I look at it kind of like MFLW during Mighty Mouse's run. Just don't force it down our throats and maybe something happens that makes us care about it. Cejudo beating Mighty Mouse generated some buzz which gave us Cejudo-TJ which was a decently big fight. Then Fig-Joey B. 1 was OK and then the ass whooping in Fig-Joey B. 2 created some more buzz. Which all lead up to one of the top 3 fights of 2020 with Fig-Moreno and now one of the more highly anticipated fights of 2021 with the rematch. I never would have guessed 2-3 years ago that I would be looking forward to a FLW fight.

For sure. These kind of divisions are fine to have around, just don't build real divisions around them. The woman's 145 division should be the champ, the person she's fighting, and maybe 4 other fighters who are fighting to see who the next challenger is. That's it. Nobody wants to see the #9 vs #12 145lb woman's fighters square off on a Fight Night main card.

 

[pistolpete11]

Not a big surprise. But it's still noteworthy that he came in a few pounds lower for a title fight, you don't see that too often.

Yeah, 4lbs under the maximum is still pretty significant. Can't remember seeing anything more than 1lb under in any title fight.

Edit: Excluding HW, of course