GWT: UCL R16 First Legs

[gary69]

I don't think they've been in Donetsk for a while now. It's been more or less under separatist control for a while. Not that it makes it any better... Being in Kyiv right now is tough.

Managers Paulo Fonseca and De Zerbi are now stranded in Kyiv as well.

 

[Brunkmeister]

I thought UEFA would do anything to benefit english teams according to Evilo. Ironic

 

[luiginb]

Managers Paulo Fonseca and De Zerbi are now stranded in Kyiv as well.

Old man Lucescu too. And he's already survived a heart attack.

 

[cgf]

Be swift and remove them. Putin is a sport fan (and a superior athlete from the hockey footage i've seen).

Let this mad man know that he does not have the support of the football world.

Putin couldn't care less about Spartak, Zenit is the football club that he cares about to any degree...though he isn't anywhere near as interested in Zenit as he is SKA because he's not a big football fan. So if the idea is to try & irritate him via sport, it's too late.


But this western focus on Putin badly misunderstands russia's internal dynamics. Putin isn't some mastermind who controls everything that happens in russia, he's a clever figurehead who the oligarchy & military elite can not agree on a replacement for because everyone has their own preferred candidate, nobody wants to let the other guy's pick get the job, and he's been a competent administrator to this point.

So focusing on Putin instead of the interests of the Oligarchy will never change the russian state's behavior. People just like the idea that if you could only take down Sauron the entire evil empire would disappear, but if you want to change the russian state's behavior then you need to focus on the interests of the oligarchy & military elite...with the former being more significant than the latter.

This war doesn't end by annoying one Russian, it ends when the oligarch's interests/plans in the black sea are secured against Erdogan's ambitions or the future of Nord Stream 2 is genuinely threatened...rather than simply being temporarily delayed.

If the Oligarchs become more worried about their plans for the Baltic than they stand to gain in the black sea, then they'll pull back, regardless of how much the military people want to re-establish the old buffer from NATO & shrink that european land-border that they have to defend.

 

[Evilo]

There's no way Nord Stream is threatenned given the Western Europe dependancy on russian gas.

Meanwhile Kennedy threw a tantrum on Cuba. Putin is throwing a new one for Ukraine's NATO negociations.
Clearly, the US has something to do with this war, which certainly doesn't excuse Russia's actions or behaviour.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

There's no way Nord Stream is threatenned given the Western Europe dependancy on russian gas.

Meanwhile Kennedy threw a tantrum on Cuba. Putin is throwing a new one for Ukraine's NATO negociations.
Clearly, the US has something to do with this war, which certainly doesn't excuse Russia's actions or behaviour.

They want Ukraine in NATO and have pushed for it. They also are working hard on strengthening NATO after what happened from 2016-2020 (an administration that was not pro-Ukraine at all... and did not really care about NATO). So, yes, they have something to do with the current war.

 

[gary69]

There's no way Nord Stream is threatenned given the Western Europe dependancy on russian gas.

Meanwhile Kennedy threw a tantrum on Cuba. Putin is throwing a new one for Ukraine's NATO negociations.
Clearly, the US has something to do with this war, which certainly doesn't excuse Russia's actions or behaviour.

We'll see. If Germany caves in, rest will follow. USA and UK have already put heavy pressure on Germany over this. If only Germany hadn't made the idiotic decision to give up on nuclear energy, this would be a non-issue. But the tide is already turning on that, as "everybody" at the European institutions, even the Greens, have now accepted nuclear power again as "sustainable".

 

[cgf]

There's no way Nord Stream is threatenned given the Western Europe dependancy on russian gas.

Meanwhile Kennedy threw a tantrum on Cuba. Putin is throwing a new one for Ukraine's NATO negociations.
Clearly, the US has something to do with this war, which certainly doesn't excuse Russia's actions or behaviour.

Yeah, I can't imagine Nord Stream 2 actually getting canceled either. Maybe if renewables were closer to fully replacing fossil fuels at the industrial level, but that's another couple of decades away. That's why I can't see that pressure point being what gets russian forces to stop.

NATO creeping closer & closer certainly makes the military elite feel the longer borders more, but I suspect that NATO pealing Ukraine away from Russia is more important because of what it could mean to the oligarchy's planned South Stream expansion along the Danube if that pipeline is surrounded by hostile nations to the north (a NATO backed Ukraine) & south (Erdogan's Turkey) when it leaves russian territory.

 

[cgf]

We'll see. If Germany caves in, rest will follow. USA and UK have already put heavy pressure on Germany over this. If only Germany hadn't made the idiotic decision to give up on nuclear energy, this would be a non-issue. But the tide is already turning on that, as "everybody" at the European institutions, even the Greens, have now accepted nuclear power again as "sustainable".

I'll be really shocked if they cancel Nord Stream 2. They will put it on indefinite hold until the russian oligarchy feels that they've secured the South Stream expansions against potential aggression from NATO & Turkey, and so start to scale down the conflict. Then once global attention is shifted elsewhere that indefinite hold will become less indefinite.

 

[Incubajerks]

They want Ukraine in NATO and have pushed for it. They also are working hard on strengthening NATO after what happened from 2016-2020 (an administration that was not pro-Ukraine at all... and did not really care about NATO). So, yes, they have something to do with the current war.

This is not true at all btw.

 

[Evilo]

We'll see. If Germany caves in, rest will follow. USA and UK have already put heavy pressure on Germany over this. If only Germany hadn't made the idiotic decision to give up on nuclear energy, this would be a non-issue. But the tide is already turning on that, as "everybody" at the European institutions, even the Greens, have now accepted nuclear power again as "sustainable".

Idiotic?
Yeah, that's arguable.

 

[gary69]

Idiotic?
Yeah, that's arguable.

Idiotic in the sense that they have been left at the mercy of Russia for now regarding their energy needs. Not in a sense that which form of energy is the best long-term choice. Disappointing that the former Chancellor sold his soul to Russians for money (not the only politician to do so of course).

French have been smarter in this regard.

 

[Evilo]

Idiotic in the sense that they have been left at the mercy of Russia for now.

Yeah maybe that's not the only thing at stake here.

 

[gary69]

Yeah maybe that's not the only thing at stake here.

No, but a major reason why Germany isn't willing to impose as harsh sanctions as other Western nations are.

 

[luiginb]

This is not true at all btw.

It's Ukraine who wants to be a part of NATO and EU, but Russia doesn't care what they want. Serves them right for trusting the Russians with their nuclear weapons.

 

[Islay1989]

What an absurd stance. Why would Russian clubs be exempt for sanctions? Sanctioning them hurts the country they come from. You lose privilege to be a part of civilized society in every aspect if you act like a rampaging lunatic.

 

[cgf]

No, but a major reason why Germany isn't willing to impose as harsh sanctions as other Western nations are.

There are layers to the post-WWII german-russian relationship beyond the dependence on russian natural gas that are also a big part of the difference in response. Especially when the harsher sanctions that some are calling for would mostly just punish the Russian people to make their own citizens feel better about not wanting to go to war for a bunch of Ukrainians.

So I'm not so sure that Germany would be as aggressive against Russia as some in the english-speaking world would like, even if there wasn't the energy relationship. That kind of posturing can do more harm than good if you're not actually willing to go to war to stop them...which everybody is being upfront about not wanting to do.

 

[cgf]

What an absurd stance. Why would Russian clubs be exempt for sanctions? Sanctioning them hurts the country they come from. You lose privilege to be a part of civilized society in every aspect if you act like a rampaging lunatic.

Moving the CL final is a real loss of face for the russian state, so that was an effective way to try & pressure them non-politically, but I don't see how booting Spartak does anything but make people who aren't being directly affected by the conflict feel better about things

Spartak fans will be pissed & Fedun might be briefly annoyed if he notices, but that annoyance won't stop him from wanting to make more money.

 

[cgf]

This is not true at all btw.

They want Ukraine in NATO's sphere of influence rather than russia's, but you are right that NATO doesn't want them to actually join because they don't want the responsibility of defending Ukraine.

 

[gary69]

There are layers to the post-WWII german-russian relationship beyond the dependence on russian natural gas that are also a big part of the difference in response. Especially when the harsher sanctions that some are calling for would mostly just punish the Russian people to make their own citizens feel better about not wanting to go to war for a bunch of Ukrainians.

So I'm not so sure that Germany would be as aggressive against Russia as some in the english-speaking world would like, even if there wasn't the energy relationship. That kind of posturing can do more harm than good if you're not actually willing to go to war to stop them...which everybody is being upfront about not wanting to do.

Understandable point, but punishing regular people for a short while has proved to be efficient. See cases like Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi or Ceaucescu, who is better example. If the outside world hits people hard enough, leaders will fall (without outside help or unless they are willing to sacrifice everybody).

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Understandable point, but punishing regular people for a short while has proved to be efficient. See cases like Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi or Ceaucescu, who is better example. If the outside world hits people hard enough, leaders will fall (without outside help or unless they are willing to sacrifice everybody).

Please stop you clown

 

[Islay1989]

Please stop you clown

If there's nothing you can contribute but inane insults maybe you are the one who should stop? If you have a problem with someone's take, address it.

 

[Evilo]

What an absurd stance. Why would Russian clubs be exempt for sanctions? Sanctioning them hurts the country they come from. You lose privilege to be a part of civilized society in every aspect if you act like a rampaging lunatic.

Imagine all the US citizens here.

 

[cgf]

Understandable point, but punishing regular people for a short while has proved to be efficient. See cases like Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi or Ceaucescu which is better example. If the ouside world hits the people hard enough, leaders will fall (without outside help or unless they are willing to sacrifice everybody).

Russia is a different scale of global power, with a unique past for a modern superpower, and you're not going to hit the people that need to be hit with short-term sanctions.

Best case scenario you sanction the people for long enough to trigger food-riots in enough big cities for the bloodshed to force the aristocracy to stop bickering amongst themselves and pick a new face to replace Putin with...without the country collapsing into the chaos that Iraq & Libya did and nukes starting to show up on the dark web.

But even if you can thread that needle, you're still giving that new-Putin something that will be just as effective at galvanizing the people behind him as the Moscow bombings were for Putin-classic.

 

[Evilo]

Understandable point, but punishing regular people for a short while has proved to be efficient. See cases like Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi or Ceaucescu, who is better example. If the outside world hits people hard enough, leaders will fall (without outside help or unless they are willing to sacrifice everybody).

Russians are currently doing more to stop the war than you on your laptop.
Yet you think they should be hurt in their football love.
Great logic.