Tyler Biggs: Bust or Developing

[67Cup]

Biggs still has a shot at becoming a useful third or fourth line grinding winger/penalty kill specialist. To this point, there is little or no evidence that he will be able to contribute offensively at the NHL level. In fact, there is not yet much evidence that he can contribute offensively at the AHL level. I can recall only a handful of 1st round forwards who up such low numbers in their first pro seasons. Almost all the forwards drafted in the 22-40 range that year have been significantly more productive. Sure, the light can go and this can all change but there is very little actual evidence that this will happen.

It can be claimed that this is hindsight but does it make any sense to ignore three years worth of play in evaluating the progress of a pick? In any case, aside from the posters who simply liked other players better, there were, at the time, lots of people here questioned the wisdom of trading two top picks to move up to #22. That was not hindsight.

An aside: the BlueJays just dumped #11 overall pick McGuire for cash. Biggs is not in the equivalent hockey position yet. But unless he improves this year, he may be within haling distance of that kind of outcome.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Biggs and Broll will be groomed down the same path.

The spots on our 4th line is theirs to lose - the 3rd line is theirs to gain.

Get it!

 

[Cor]

He's 21....

He is developing to those who didn't have the unrealistic expectation of him being some powerforward top line player.

He's gonna be a defensive forward who can chip in 10 goals from the third line. Will be great beside Gauthier

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Obviously, you can't judge a pick without hindsight!

Results enable you to judge a previous action.

No one would ever be wrong if you didn't evaluate results.

Yes but that's not what I mean. For every Erik Karlsson there's a Tyler Biggs in regards to mid-late 1st round picks. Some picks turn out amazing and better than anyone predicted and some just don't work out, does that mean that it's the GM's or scouts' fault? Keep in mind that 1st rounders are rated highly from all scouts around the league, not just one team's scouts.

 

[Diatomic]

Will be a 4th liner at best

 

[ULF_55]

Yes but that's not what I mean. For every Erik Karlsson there's a Tyler Biggs in regards to mid-late 1st round picks. Some picks turn out amazing and better than anyone predicted and some just don't work out, does that mean that it's the GM's or scouts' fault? Keep in mind that 1st rounders are rated highly from all scouts around the league, not just one team's scouts.

Well, that is exactly what scouts, GM's, talent evaluators are paid to do.

Sometimes they are wrong sometimes they are correct in their projections.

If they are wrong more often than the management of other teams then you have a problem and regardless of how "right" they thought they were at the time, they were "wrong."

Like holding NorTel stock at $125, because analysts predicted $200. Mistake!

 

[sommervr]

Bust. We should move him to Calgary for whatever we can get.

I don't like his future much under the new Marlies GM. He is going to look terrible by any statistical measure.

 

[Mess]

Leafs do have a prospect system that is not very highly regarded by professionals in the industry and in part it is due to selections like Biggs that factor into that conclusion.

Other 1st round picks like Nylander and Gauthier are considered at the top of Leafs prospect pool as former 1st rounders, whereas Biggs would be lucky if he was even in the top 10 of the organization at present.

Even using the polls on this board soliciting Leaf fans opinions Biggs only comes in a #15 in Leafs system. For a former 1st rounder that the team traded up to get this is a disappointing outcome so far.

Hopefully he turn things around in the future for Leafs sake or this will have become wasted draft picks.

 

[Ed Belfour]

The "he's 21 and still developing" argument is a pretty hollow cry. The guy just isn't an NHL caliber hockey player. He'll get a crack at the lineup at some point because he was a first round pick, but his ceiling is a 4th line grinder...not at all what you expect from a first rounder that we traded up for. No matter how you or the Leafs front office try to rationalize how trading up in the 1st to draft a 4th line grinder to MAYBE play 10 minutes a night was their intent all along, it looks like Biggs is a huge disappointment. It's not the end of the world to admit this, some picks work out and some don't.

I actually didn't mind the pick at the time. It was basically the NFL equivalent of a HWS draft pick (Height Weight Speed) who you hope can develop his skills to the point where his natural athletic ability combines with that skill to make a good NHL player. AS OF NOW, it doesn't look the skill part of his game is developing at all, so we're left with a superb athlete whom we hope can still make a contribution on the fourth line. It is what is.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I again feel he should not have left college. Had he not, he would have been going into his senior year. He was a long-term project not to be tampered with (or I have said many times, a piece of brisket not to be taken out of the oven while it was still raw).

There is no way of knowing if the full college route would have been better. But this is a debate for the whether his doubts as a prospect at this point are the player himself or Leafs development. Could be both.

I wanted to see a Backes path for Biggs. Because of the NCAA rules back then, Backes was drafted as a 19-year old. (Oddly enough, Biggs' birthday is April 30, Backes is May 1). He then spent three years at college until he was a few months shy of turning 22 (something that would have been the same from Biggs had he been going to college for his senior year this year). When Backes finished his senior year, he finished his season in the AHL. He then started the next season as a 22-year old in the AHL and was eventually called up that season and has never looked back since.

Basically, Backes wasn't even in pro hockey until he was 21 years and 11 months. Biggs was 19 years and 11 months when he saw his first pro hockey action.

It could be all about the player, but imo that two year difference between both players could be a huge factor in comparing their careers. Never expected Biggs to be Backes. But did expect him to be Backes-lite. Now it looks like if he even becomes half of Backes-lite, it would be a miracle.

 

[Menzinger]

Yes but that's not what I mean. For every Erik Karlsson there's a Tyler Biggs in regards to mid-late 1st round picks. Some picks turn out amazing and better than anyone predicted and some just don't work out, does that mean that it's the GM's or scouts' fault? Keep in mind that 1st rounders are rated highly from all scouts around the league, not just one team's scouts.

Well, yes. It's part of their job afterall. Obviously a fair amount of a player's development is well beyond their control - but if a GM decides to use good assets to move up in a draft to get a prospect, they deserve criticism if that player doesn't develop into something useful.

 

[sommervr]

One thing I can guarantee about the Marlies next year is an increased emphasis on controlled zone entries. You can take that to the bank.

The Marlies have the guys for it with Abbott, Leivo, Percy, Kozun, Smith, Carick and the Swedish meatballs on D. Maybe even Nylander.

Biggs is the exact antithesis of a good possession player. He is good at chasing the puck and terrible once he has it.

He is just not going to do well in any kind of a modern system that tracks possession.

 

[ponder]

I again feel he should not have left college. Had he not, he would have been going into his senior year. He was a long-term project not to be tampered with (or I have said many times, a piece of brisket not to be taken out of the oven while it was still raw).

There is no way of knowing if the full college route would have been better. But this is a debate for the whether his doubts as a prospect at this point are the player himself or Leafs development. Could be both.

I wanted to see a Backes path for Biggs. Because of the NCAA rules back then, Backes was drafted as a 19-year old. (Oddly enough, Biggs' birthday is April 30, Backes is May 1). He then spent three years at college until he was a few months shy of turning 22 (something that would have been the same from Biggs had he been going to college for his senior year this year). When Backes finished his senior year, he finished his season in the AHL. He then started the next season as a 22-year old in the AHL and was eventually called up that season and has never looked back since.

Basically, Backes wasn't even in pro hockey until he was 21 years and 11 months. Biggs was 19 years and 11 months when he saw his first pro hockey action.

It could be all about the player, but imo that two year difference between both players could be a huge factor in comparing their careers. Never expected Biggs to be Backes. But did expect him to be Backes-lite. Now it looks like if he even becomes half of Backes-lite, it would be a miracle.

Backes put up 37 points in 39 games in his first NCAA season, Biggs put up 17 points in 37 games in his first (and only) NCAA season. In their respective draft years, both in the USHL, Backes put up 69 points in 57 games, Biggs put up 11 points in 20 games. Backes was just way more skilled/offensively talented at the same age, I don't really see the comparison. Biggs has never really shown much in the way of offensive talent, at any level. I do think he'll be an NHLer, a good 4th liner or maybe even a good 3rd liner, but I just don't think the talent is there for him to be a good top 6er, regardless of how he was developed.

 

[IBeL34f]

I said it when he was drafted, and I'll say it now: As long as he shows he's dedicated to improving his game and works hard to be the best player he can be, I would give him until 24 or 25 at least in our system before completely writing him off. Still have lots of hope for him, and wouldn't give him up for nothing any time soon.

 

[zeke]

Time to give up the dream, folks.

Biggs is not gonna make it.

He isn't even good enough for the ahl.

Don't be like habs fans, who are still holding out hope for mccarron. Who is actually worse than biggs.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Gauthier and Biggs will go through the same thing. Projected to be 2nd line players, when that's their top range. I think Biggs' top will be becoming what we wanted Clarkson to be (a 2nd line power forward who can chip in offensively). Realistically he's a 3rd line defensive power forward who may get 15-20 goals if he has some decent play making linemates. Gauthier is projected to be a big 2nd line center, when realistically he's going to be our next Bolland; 15-20 goals whose a defensive forward. To be totally honest, I'd be jumping for joy if we got a Bolland and a Bolland winger out of Biggs and Gauthier, and I don't think it's totally unrealistic either.

 

[zeke]

Gauthier is a helluva lot better than Biggs.

No reason to compare them, at all.

 

[Gardiner Expressway]

I think it's definitely too early to judge, though I have faith that Spott's comments last year that Biggs was developing were more than just hollow ego-fodder. He won't be that 1st line Lucic that some people crossed their fingers for, but I think there's still a chance that he contributes in a Top 6 capacity. I think he ends up a lot like a 2014 Kulemin.

 

[sniper81]

Time to give up the dream, folks.

Biggs is not gonna make it.

He isn't even good enough for the ahl.

Don't be like habs fans, who are still holding out hope for mccarron. Who is actually worse than biggs.

This post is incredibly dumb. Wait until they are 23-24 and then make this statement. It's pretty clear you don't understand very much about development.

 

[TMLeafer]

I think the best thing is to just forget we have him. Let him play for 4 more years in the AHL then see what we've got. We always knew he'd be a project. Nothing really to lose except a contract spot. Now if he can't even show anything at the AHL level, then lord help us.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Gauthier is a helluva lot better than Biggs.

No reason to compare them, at all.

Well I think they have the same ceiling, but Gauthier has a better floor. I think Gauthier will definitely be an NHLer; at least as a 4th liner. Biggs may never make the NHL, even as a 4th liner. Though it will only disappoint people saying Gauthier will become a 2nd line center, because unless he really improves his offensive ability, he won't be.

 

[Bullseye]

This is not a sarcastic statement but how did Tyler Biggs get drafted in the 1st rd at all? What did he bring to the table? Skating, shot, play-making, hitting, leadership, intangible combo of those things? Does anyone have enough intel on his game to answer that question - I guess Dave Morrison and Brian Burke. Can Steve Spott answer that question?

 

[UllmansTiger]

He could make it to the show, probably as a lower line player but I wouldn't count him out completely at this point.

 

[zeke]

This post is incredibly dumb. Wait until they are 23-24 and then make this statement. It's pretty clear you don't understand very much about development.

Yeah, no.

 

[Trainspotter]

He is just not going to do well in any kind of a modern system that tracks possession.

About 50% of the time you don't have the puck.