Prospect Info: Ty Mueller: 105th Overall 2023 Draft (Nebraska-Omaha) - C

[Vector]

Haven't we long established that just taking whoever is the next highest-scoring dude turns out better than overthinking it to this extent?

Or biggest or fastest or...something. Although of the two overage centres this is the one more likely to have a professional career according to EP.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Head scout Harvey basically said they drafted this guy projecting he will be a 3rd line center. Let's see how this goes.

 

[F A N]

Interesting overager pick but couldn't they have gotten another 6th or 7th round pick and drafted him there?

 

[Jyrki21]

Head scout Harvey basically said they drafted this guy projecting he will be a 3rd line center. Let's see how this goes.

Kind of like Kyle Pettit was going to. And Mackenze Stewart was going to be a rugged depth defenseman in the NHL, since that's what he was in the WHL.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Interesting overager pick but couldn't they have gotten another 6th or 7th round pick and drafted him there?

Likely could have signed both these guys as UFAs. Very unlikely they would get picked.

 

[God]

Kind of like Kyle Pettit was going to. And Mackenze Stewart was going to be a rugged depth defenseman in the NHL, since that's what he was in the WHL.

in fairness to mueller, his stat line is far better than pettit's ever was. the upward trajectory tracks like a typical NCAA free agent signing we'd make in any given year. i actually don't even remember what the justification for pettit was.

(i would've taken an upside guy instead of this, fwiw)

 

[Flaming Satan]

I am extremely familiar with Mueller's game and I really think you guys should be happy with this pick. I've seen some comments about him having no high level traits but that is just straight up wrong. One of the smarter players I've come across in college for his age and he does everything else well. He could turn into a Mikael Backlund sort of player for you guys and for a 4th round pick I think that would be a great result.

 

[Canuck Luck]

How do you know there was no other team interested in him? You could wait for him to be available as a FA, but from a game theory point of view it makes sense to lock up his rights as long as another team is interested.

By the way, he was the 4th highest scoring undrafted U20 player in the NCAA available. This is a much better pick than the tall Swedish forward and that Perkins guy.

Hmm I wonder if one of those players "wasnt ranked and not even on other teams radar" was Mueller. Mueller checks off the wasnt ranked aspect.

But some of you please do keep telling me how I'm in the wrong for believing theres a strong possibility this guy would have been available to just sign after the draft.

How this wasnt a terrible pick because well the canucks liked him and theres a chance another team wanted him! Great reasoning as to why this wasnt a horrible pick.... not

Like I said, doesn't take much critical thinking to come to this conclusion even before Burke tweeted this out to be a truth

Hope he pans out from here on out, but even if he turns out to be the next Backlund as another poster suggest is his ceiling, doesnt make it any better of a pick in the moment given they likely could have traded down to the last pick of the draft and still gotten him.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Hmm I wonder if one of those players "wasnt ranked and not even on other teams radar" was Mueller. Mueller checks off the wasnt ranked aspect.

But some of you please do keep telling me how I'm in the wrong for believing theres a strong possibility this guy would have been available to just sign after the draft.

How this wasnt a terrible pick because well the canucks liked him and theres a chance another team wanted him! Great reasoning as to why this wasnt a horrible pick.... not

Like I said, doesn't take much critical thinking to come to this conclusion even before Burke tweeted this out to be a truth

Hope he pans out from here on out, but even if he turns out to be the next Backlund as another poster suggest is his ceiling, doesnt make it any better of a pick in the moment given they likely could have traded down to the last pick of the draft and still gotten him.

I don't think another team would have drafter him and probably no one would have drafted Perkins.

 

[TomWillander1RD]

Drawing from over two decades of observing the Canucks and their draft picks, I cannot recall a single instance where a selection, which was initially met with universal disapproval from the fans, ultimately proved to be a successful choice.

Most of those instances proved to be wasted pick within a year.

 

[MS]

Based on what?

Facts and evidence.

 

[Hansen]

Head scout Harvey basically said they drafted this guy projecting he will be a 3rd line center. Let's see how this goes.

This goes quite opposite to Allvin last year banging the table saying he doesnt want to aim for prospects who have low upside and instead to swing for the fences. That's unfortunate. But this player's NCAA statline is not weak and I'm fine with the risk. But the drafting philosophy needs to be there.

 

[MS]

I don't like this pick much, but the overreaction to it is kind of crazy.

This isn't a Kristoffer Gunnarsson or Petit/Stewart sort of pick. He had pretty good numbers as an NCAA sophomore and I'm curious to actually see what his skating/motor looks like and if it justifies the selection.

People realize that half of TB's picks every year are guys like this, right?

 

[Szechwan]

Reminds me of the big brain Alexandre Mallet pick. I hope this kid proves everyone wrong but I would much us focus on the youngest players possible than the oldest.

 

[MS]

This goes quite opposite to Allvin last year banging the table saying he doesnt want to aim for prospects who have low upside and instead to swing for the fences. That's unfortunate. But this player's NCAA statline is not weak and I'm fine with the risk. But the drafting philosophy needs to be there.

They look to have done that with their higher picks, but outside of very rare cases there really isn't such a thing as a 'high upside 6th rounder'.

Mostly you're just looking for guys who have a tool or two you like and are hoping that develops. Most of the 'hits' you see from the 4th round on are generally depth players.

 

[CherryToke]

Head scout Harvey basically said they drafted this guy projecting he will be a 3rd line center. Let's see how this goes.

In the AHL?

 

[Hansen]

They look to have done that with their higher picks, but outside of very rare cases there really isn't such a thing as a 'high upside 6th rounder'.

Mostly you're just looking for guys who have a tool or two you like and are hoping that develops. Most of the 'hits' you see from the 4th round on are generally depth players.

I'm curious what tools/player profiles they value in these situations.

And the volatility in everyone's reaction to these picks is over the top. Just wait until young stars tournament when they see someone rip the puck or look good competing against teenagers and all of a sudden they have NHL upside a la MacKenze Stewart

 

[MS]

I'm curious what tools/player profiles they value in these situations.

And the volatility in everyone's reaction to these picks is over the top. Just wait until young stars tournament when they see someone rip the puck or look good competing against teenagers and all of a sudden they have NHL upside a la MacKenze Stewart

Yup. It's always the same thing - the overreaction hate at the start gets replaced by the overreaction Stockholm Syndrome hype as soon as fans see these guys at a training camp.

I'd love to know what they're prioritizing as well. Seems they must value Mueller's compete if they're talking about him as a defensive 3C.

And I think skating and compete is generally the way to go on depth picks - I loved a guy like Connor Dewar in the WHL and he didn't have much upside but he's been a great OA pick for Minnesota.

 

[F A N]

They look to have done that with their higher picks, but outside of very rare cases there really isn't such a thing as a 'high upside 6th rounder'.

Mostly you're just looking for guys who have a tool or two you like and are hoping that develops. Most of the 'hits' you see from the 4th round on are generally depth players.

I think it's just the trauma from drafting "low upside" picks that many here prefer taking chances on players like Palmu, Manukyan, or Lockhart.

Ty Mueller doesn't strike me as a player projected to be a 3rd line C though. The offense isn't there and there doesn't seem to be a standout attribute. Tyler Madden (who is more offensively gifted) is waivers eligible next season. He seems to be a Max Sasson type player.

 

[Hansen]

I think it's just the trauma from drafting "low upside" picks that many here prefer taking chances on players like Palmu, Manukyan, or Lockhart.

Ty Mueller doesn't strike me as a player projected to be a 3rd line C though. The offense isn't there and there doesn't seem to be a standout attribute. Tyler Madden (who is more offensively gifted) is waivers eligible next season. He seems to be a Max Sasson type player.

Im still pissed Palmu and Gadjovich didnt turn out.

 

[God]

I don't like this pick much, but the overreaction to it is kind of crazy.

This isn't a Kristoffer Gunnarsson or Petit/Stewart sort of pick. He had pretty good numbers as an NCAA sophomore and I'm curious to actually see what his skating/motor looks like and if it justifies the selection.

People realize that half of TB's picks every year are guys like this, right?

Wow you're right.

From 2016-18, Colton, Perbix, Koepke have all played NHL games. Obviously some of the other ones don't hit, and Colton had a much better statistical profile than the guys we picked, but I didn't know this.

I wonder what kind of traits they look for, and I wonder if they're stealing this idea from when Mathieu Darche interviewed for the GM position.

 

[MS]

I think it's just the trauma from drafting "low upside" picks that many here prefer taking chances on players like Palmu, Manukyan, or Lockhart.

Ty Mueller doesn't strike me as a player projected to be a 3rd line C though. The offense isn't there and there doesn't seem to be a standout attribute. Tyler Madden (who is more offensively gifted) is waivers eligible next season. He seems to be a Max Sasson type player.

I have no idea and I'm not even really going to comment much until I actually see the player and get a feel for what he is. Right now I have absolutely no clue.

But yeah, those 'big upside' picks really don't turn out any different. Really, in terms of actually 'mattering' rounds 4-7 could be eliminated from the draft and literally nothing would change as they're functionally mostly a waste of time. I love the draft and scouting so I'm happy they're there, but I try to separate 'this interests me' from 'this is actually affecting the fortunes of my team'.

 

[MS]

Wow you're right.

From 2016-18, Colton, Perbix, Koepke have all played NHL games. Obviously some of the other ones don't hit, and Colton had a much better statistical profile than the guys we picked, but I didn't know this.

I wonder what kind of traits they look for, and I wonder if they're stealing this idea from when Mathieu Darche interviewed for the GM position.

Yeah, people get such tunnel vision on their team's picks (and also the guys they wanted) and don't really have a great perspective on what other teams are doing.

There is nothing really unusual about any of our picks today and lots of OA guys like this are always selected, with varying degrees of success.

TB has notoriously gone down the OA/NCAA route over the last 6-8 years with a fair amount of success with guys who profile very similar to the Cs we took today.

And again, I don't really like either of those picks on paper. But the overreaction is nuts.

 

[bossram]

Facts and evidence.

It's a legit question. I asked Calhoun if there was any systematic evidence that double OAs performed better than the average draft pick, and he basically said he didn't know.

 

[MS]

It's a legit question. I asked Calhoun if there was any systematic evidence that double OAs performed better than the average draft pick, and he basically said he didn't know.

I actually went through and crunched the numbers on this several years ago and it's definitely the case (and you can see this just by eyeballing the hits) but I can't find the post now.