Tryamkin's Top 50 2019 July Draft Rankings

[Tryamkin]

And so over is the 2018 draft and on to the 2019 draft we go. Through extensive scouting this year, I'm somewhat more informed on the class in July than I was last year, so hopefully this start will be a little better. If I'm missing someone, please elaborate so I can watch them for next month like always! (PS. Go easy on me, the beginning of each year is always the hardest!)

1. C Jack Hughes
2. RW Kaapo Kakko
3. C Alex Turcotte
4. LW Alex Newhook
5. D Bowen Byram
6. C Kirby Dach
7. C Dylan Cozens
8. D Anttoni Honka
9. D Matthew Robertson
10. C Ryan Suzuki
11. C Raphael Lavoie
12. LW Arthur Kaliyev
13. C Jakob Pelletier
14. D Tobias Bjornfot
15. LW Payton Krebs
16. D Cole Caufield
17. C Matthew Boldy
18. D Cam York
19. D LW Nolan Foote
20. C Blake Murray
21. C Tag Bertuzzi
22. D Victor Soderstrom
23. D Artermi Knyazev
24. LW Nils Hoglander
25. RW Albin Grewe
26. D Mikko Kokkonen
27. LW Samuel Poulin
28. C Trevor Zegras
29. D Alex Vlasic
30. RW Vasily Podkolzin
31. RW Henri Nikkanen
32. RW Sasha Mutala
33. D Warren Marshall
34. D Lev Sarikov
35. RW Danil Antropov
36. G Spencer Knight
37. C Valentin Nussbaumer
38. D Ilya Mironov
39. D Case McCarthy
40. LW Maxim Cajkovic
41. RW Graeme Clark
42. C Brady Meyer
43. D Ben Brinkman
44. D Michael Vukojevic
45. C John Beecher
46. C Michael Gildon
47. C Logan Barlage
48. LW Luke Toporowski
49. C/LW Antti Saarela
50. D Moritz Seider

Click to read more...

 

[93LEAFS]

Most notable thing is Cajkovic in the 40's. He's going to be a top 10 guy on most lists to start the year.

 

[Tryamkin]

Most notable thing is Cajkovic in the 40's. He's going to be a top 10 guy on most lists to start the year.

I wouldn’t say to start the year, but he’ll rise for sure.

 

[93LEAFS]

I wouldn’t say to start the year, but he’ll rise for sure.

Well, I already know he's top 10 in the Black Book, and that he is with Pronman. He gets another chance to show his stuff at Hlinka. A bad Hlinka could sink his stock after a very impressive u-18's, but I'd expect if Bob and Button list came out today he'd be in the top 10 and probably a lock for a top 20. FC seems way off with their ranking of him, somehow having him at 76.

Having watched a bunch of OHL and having watched the under 18. I would think you would have to be insane to even entertain the idea of Bertuzzi or Antropov over him. I'd take him over any OHL kid at the moment, but I can atleast see the arguments for Suzuki, Murrey and Kaliyev.

 

[Tryamkin]

Well, I already know he's top 10 in the Black Book, and that he is with Pronman. He gets another chance to show his stuff at Hlinka. A bad Hlinka could sink his stock after a very impressive u-18's, but I'd expect if Bob and Button list came out today he'd be in the top 10 and probably a lock for a top 20. FC seems way off with their ranking of him, somehow having him at 76.

Having watched a bunch of OHL and having watched the under 18. I would think you would have to be insane to even entertain the idea of Bertuzzi or Antropov over him. I'd take him over any OHL kid at the moment, but I can atleast see the arguments for Suzuki, Murrey and Kaliyev.

As of right now I have him down there, the potential to rise is large, same for Tag and Nik’s Son.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Comments: And I should mention that this is just constructive feedback, so I don't mean this harshly.

Too high: Honka, Bjornfot, Bertuzzi, Vlasic, Knyazev, Gildon, Boldy

Comments: I guess the Honka opinions will be divided. I don't think its an unpopular opinion you are advancing. I personally just don't see Honka as that great of a prospect. He's good offensively, but I'm not sure he'll be an elite top flight OFD in the NHL, and I don't think he has shown he can defend. You should basically flop Bjornfot and Soderstrom. The Swedish U18 coach is an idiot. Bjornfot made the U18 team because he's bigger and more of a physically strong defensive guy. Soderstrom is clearly the best Swedish defenseman from this draft, based on what I've watched. I've seen some rank Bertuzzi high, and I don't understand it. He had some points at the WHC-17, but I didn't think he was particularly good, nor did he have a great season in the OHL.

Vlasic is not a early round pick, in my opinion. He's like Adam Samuelsson from the past draft. Big guy who has some skill and some defensive ability, but he's terribly slow and not really as good defensively as you'd expect. His point totals are also way inflated by the team he played on. He's not a big offensive guy, even though he's not a complete nothing offensively. I'm not sure what Knyazev has done to be on these early lists. He didn't have a good season, but I've seen a number of people listing him. Gildon isn't any good. I saw a lot of him this season. Barely made any impact, even when he was put on higher lines with good players. Boldy is good, but I don't see anything high-end about his game. I find it hard to put him before 20 because there just isn't a lot "upside" there, and he's still a prospect, so even his "safer" type of game isn't a sure thing. He's somewhat like the Tkachuk's without the agitation. Really hard working player though.

Too low: Soderstrom, Zegras, Seider, Nikkanen

Not Listed: Guskov, Thrun, Teply, Holmstrom

Comments: Soderstrom referenced above. He does everything well. He can run a power play, good skater, good defensively, decent size. Zegras gets little publicity because he played third fiddle at center to Hughes and Turcotte, but he's not far behind either. Seider doesn't have much publicity, but I think he's a first round talent. Hard to evaluate though because of the low-level of play. Nikkanen is the second best Finn, in my opinion.

Guskov is the best Russian, in my opinion. Well-rounded center. Thrun plays an understated game on the NTDP back-end. Teply isn't that great and there are skating issues, but there's ability there. Holmstrom looks like the best Swedish forward in the upcoming draft. Skilled winger who skates well.

 

[ijuka]

Comments: I guess the Honka opinions will be divided. I don't think its an unpopular opinion you are advancing. I personally just don't see Honka as that great of a prospect. He's good offensively, but I'm not sure he'll be an elite top flight OFD in the NHL, and I don't think he has shown he can defend.

At least in Liiga he showed he can defend. Very good performance in the defensive end and the difference to a prospect of similar age like Kokkonen is enormous. What do you think his issues are on defense? Context: 17yo in pro league.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

At least in Liiga he showed he can defend. Very good performance in the defensive end and the difference to a prospect of similar age like Kokkonen is enormous. What do you think his issues are on defense? Context: 17yo in pro league.

Size is obviously an issue, which is understandable and as he gets older and puts on weight, it can be less of an issue, but I think his positioning isn't particularly good and he doesn't yet know how to pick his spots.

 

[ijuka]

Well, there's not so much video material available but let's see what we can do.

Let's go ahead and look at all of Honka's defensive efforts without the puck in the two shift-by-shifts I've seen available. The first video is by prospectshifts.com: Anttoni Honka vs TPS | Mar 2 2018 - ProspectShifts.com

0:34 he first harrasses the first attacker, then is able to cover his guy and he only gets a low % shot off.
2:32 gets to the loose puck first, gets it safely to a teammate.
2:55 takes the puck away on the blue line.
3:11 stays with his guy, prevents a good shot. Eventually helps battle the puck out of zone.
5:18 perhaps he could have reached the puck in time. Then again, the goalie could also have sent a slower one.
5:38 keeps up with his guy, only allows a low % shot from the outside.
6:08 forces his guy to the boards, a board battle ensues. Eventually, he gives a good breakout pass and defuses the situation.
7:59 is positioned well, takes the puck away. Afterwards, his goalie makes a mistake(should have let the puck just go to Honka), but Honka's able to scramble to the front of the net so that the TPS forward can't get a better positioning for the shot.
8:55 gets passed, but still keeps the opponent to the boards rather than allowing him into a scoring position. Afterwards, board battle that his team wins.
10:22 prevents a 4 on 2 by positioning well and being fast enough by his skating and danger recognition to prevent the situation.
12:38 extended pressure in his zone and he does get pushed around somewhat and at least once, gets pushed and prevented from defending against an opponent's rebound. On the other hand, he does block and clear a shot.

Let's check the other shift-by-shift video for defensive plays. This is by burgundy-rainbow.com: Anttoni Honka - Burgundy Rainbow

0:31 advances from the blue line, pokes the puck back in.
0:44 Positions properly on the rush, opponent forced to shoot a low % shot from afar.
2:45 good gap control and backwards skating, pokes the puck away.
4:00 forces his guy towards the boards, his D partner however loses his guy which almost ends badly.
4:41 good positioning, his guy cannot advance towards the net.
5:30 positions well, his guy can't advance to the net. Low % shot.
8:12 Goes across the rink to cover for the other D, blocks potential pass and deflects shot away. Draws penalty.
8:36 loses board battle. However, afterwards he gets to the loose puck with his skating and defuses the situation.
10:38 good gap control and positioning, harrasses with a poke check(that misses) to delay, holds his guy, nothing comes out of the attack.
11:24 positions properly, good gap control again, harrasses with stick, ends in a giveaway.

So are there mistakes here? Relatively few, well outnumbered by the actual good plays. He has the greatest issues along the boards, likely due to his size and age. His defending of the rush is excellent. He excels at breakout passes and zone entries, both of which are extremely sought-after in today's NHL. In fact, good breakout passing is the most most important qualify for an NHL defenseman, period. He also positions well on the breakout and offers good support.

Two puck carrying zone entry examples that are included in these two shift-by-shifts:

9:52 on Anttoni Honka vs TPS | Mar 2 2018 - ProspectShifts.com
2: 53 on Anttoni Honka - Burgundy Rainbow

Size is obviously an issue, which is understandable and as he gets older and puts on weight, it can be less of an issue, but I think his positioning isn't particularly good and he doesn't yet know how to pick his spots.

On the topic of size being an issue - It's not an issue. There are 5'8" defensemen in NHL so he's fine. He's 17.

On the topic of positioning being an issue - That's absolute nonsense. Watch him play. Or read this post.

Him not knowing how to pick his spots - Absolute nonsense. He knows how to pick his spots well, and he actually could have scored even more if his teammates recognized when he does and gave him passes. Many times he gets himself into a fantastic scoring position wide open and never receives a pass.

Beyond the eye test, all of his advanced statistics in Liiga are absolutely phenomenal as are his scoring statistics and plus/minus. To conclude, my opinion is that you either haven't watched him play very much or don't understand what you're watching if you think Honka's too high here. He's far too low at #9. Top 5 is the absolute minimum. Clear top 3 for me(#2).

 

[Vide]

I feel like Soderstrom is criminally underrated on most of these early 2019 rankings. The guy is practically a Boqvist clone from what I've seen. He should be in the conversation for top10.

 

[Wooren]

Czech prospects underrated again. Shocking

 

[SI90]

* Cole Caufield listed as a Defensman.

 

[Erikfromfin]

I think Mikko Kokkonen is too high.. also Matias Maccelli could flirt into top50 ranking, hard to find Finnish prospect in recent years thats more skilled than him.

 

[tony d]

Thanks for sharing this. Will be interesting to see who steps up this season and the final draft rankings going into the 2019 draft.

 

[Habs76]

Bjornfot won't go above Soderstrom. Bjorn probably gets taken closer to the 2nd round

 

[Tryamkin]

Comments: And I should mention that this is just constructive feedback, so I don't mean this harshly.

Too high: Honka, Bjornfot, Bertuzzi, Vlasic, Knyazev, Gildon, Boldy

Comments: I guess the Honka opinions will be divided. I don't think its an unpopular opinion you are advancing. I personally just don't see Honka as that great of a prospect. He's good offensively, but I'm not sure he'll be an elite top flight OFD in the NHL, and I don't think he has shown he can defend. You should basically flop Bjornfot and Soderstrom. The Swedish U18 coach is an idiot. Bjornfot made the U18 team because he's bigger and more of a physically strong defensive guy. Soderstrom is clearly the best Swedish defenseman from this draft, based on what I've watched. I've seen some rank Bertuzzi high, and I don't understand it. He had some points at the WHC-17, but I didn't think he was particularly good, nor did he have a great season in the OHL.

Vlasic is not a early round pick, in my opinion. He's like Adam Samuelsson from the past draft. Big guy who has some skill and some defensive ability, but he's terribly slow and not really as good defensively as you'd expect. His point totals are also way inflated by the team he played on. He's not a big offensive guy, even though he's not a complete nothing offensively. I'm not sure what Knyazev has done to be on these early lists. He didn't have a good season, but I've seen a number of people listing him. Gildon isn't any good. I saw a lot of him this season. Barely made any impact, even when he was put on higher lines with good players. Boldy is good, but I don't see anything high-end about his game. I find it hard to put him before 20 because there just isn't a lot "upside" there, and he's still a prospect, so even his "safer" type of game isn't a sure thing. He's somewhat like the Tkachuk's without the agitation. Really hard working player though.

Too low: Soderstrom, Zegras, Seider, Nikkanen

Not Listed: Guskov, Thrun, Teply, Holmstrom

Comments: Soderstrom referenced above. He does everything well. He can run a power play, good skater, good defensively, decent size. Zegras gets little publicity because he played third fiddle at center to Hughes and Turcotte, but he's not far behind either. Seider doesn't have much publicity, but I think he's a first round talent. Hard to evaluate though because of the low-level of play. Nikkanen is the second best Finn, in my opinion.

Guskov is the best Russian, in my opinion. Well-rounded center. Thrun plays an understated game on the NTDP back-end. Teply isn't that great and there are skating issues, but there's ability there. Holmstrom looks like the best Swedish forward in the upcoming draft. Skilled winger who skates well.

I disageee on a few of the listed points, but for the most part it seems somewhat correct. I haven’t seen more than one game for most within 3 months, most of this is from my viewings over the early to mid part of last year. I’m not gonna argue all, but some players are straight due to rise, and they will be rising, I just don’t want to put them too high, too early. Ex. Zegras, Cajkovic, Soderstrom, Nikkanen, Saarela etc.

Vlasic is different than Samuelsson imo, he plays a more complete game and has put up 29 points in the U17’s, Samuelsson didn’t have any and looked out of place in his time with them.

Soderstrom and Seider were moved down to accommodate other players but will be up again eventually once I round out the scouting a bit more on the European side. Seider in particular is someone who I think will rise as far as potentially a top 10 spot.

 

[Tryamkin]

Bjornfot won't go above Soderstrom. Bjorn probably gets taken closer to the 2nd round

Interesting, I’m a Bjornfot fan, and have watched more on him that Soderstrom, however Soderstrom probably had a higher potential.

 

[Habs76]

Interesting, I’m a Bjornfot fan, and have watched more on him that Soderstrom, however Soderstrom probably had a higher potential.

You've watched more of any player than I have at this point, I'm currently going mostly on hearsay until the season starts and I'm able to watch some games.

 

[Goon42]

lmao at not having bertuzzi top 5

0/10 list

 

[Tryamkin]

lmao at not having bertuzzi top 5

0/10 list

sorry