Training Camp Thread II (Opening Day Roster Released)

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YouGotAStuGoing

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Mar 26, 2010
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True, but you gotta admit, Michalek's even strength production numbers without Spezza are pretty sad. And yet they offered him more to come back than Hemsky. I guess we'll likely never know what exactly was said in either negotiation, but still, has to raise an eyebrow.
I still believe this is a misconception because of Michalek's 35 goal season. Beyond that, he and Spezza never seemed to click the way Spezza did with other players. A cursory glance at his WOWY charts suggest that Spezza didn't really stand out in any way — favourable or otherwise — except in terms of sheer minutes played with Milan.
We aren't paying him to be first liner. Most of the teams plus minus Wasn't good.
I hope and pray the day eventually comes where everyone realizes +/- is by and large only indicative of whether you're on a good team or a bad team.
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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Yup and we payed for it.

Michalek's PK numbers over the last three years have generally better than the team's numbers when he's not on the ice. To me that suggests that perhaps he isn't the problem with out PK.

True, but you gotta admit, Michalek's even strength production numbers without Spezza are pretty sad. And yet they offered him more to come back than Hemsky. I guess we'll likely never know what exactly was said in either negotiation, but still, has to raise an eyebrow.

Have you looked at Hemsky's numbers away from Spezza? Seems fair that you apply the same standards, and Hemsky was even worse than Michalek when not on Spezza's line. Feel free to say that's all because of Edmonton, but the real important takeaway is that you're using a tiny sample (360 mins), which is really not worth much in the scheme of things. Over the last 3 years Michalek has the following stat line away from Spezza: 821:23 mins, 0.852 GF/20 0.803 GA/20 51.5 GF%. All at ES of course.

Maybe, just maybe, the team dug a little deeper than you did when analysing whether or not to re-sign Michalek.
 

FlyingJ

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Feb 25, 2014
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Have you looked at Hemsky's numbers away from Spezza? Seems fair that you apply the same standards, and Hemsky was even worse than Michalek when not on Spezza's line. Feel free to say that's all because of Edmonton, but the real important takeaway is that you're using a tiny sample (360 mins), which is really not worth much in the scheme of things. Over the last 3 years Michalek has the following stat line away from Spezza: 821:23 mins, 0.852 GF/20 0.803 GA/20 51.5 GF%. All at ES of course.

Maybe, just maybe, the team dug a little deeper than you did when analysing whether or not to re-sign Michalek.

And looky at that, Spezza's numbers away from Michalek in that span are even better! a 0.994 GF20 vs a 0.870 GA20. Giving up more than Michalek away from him, but also getting a good deal more.

And if you want to talk about being selective, you excluded 2 of Michalek's 5 years here. Allows for that single 35 goal and 60 point season to play a much bigger role in your numbers.

It's also fun to see how many ways some posters can say "management is paid to do this, thus you need to shut up!" :sarcasm:
 

YNWA14

Onbreekbaar
Dec 29, 2010
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I think what we can really take away from this is that Spezza makes everyone that plays with him better, and we should have worked harder to keep him instead of re-signing either of Michalek or Hemsky. :P
 

WhiteLight*

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Michalek's PK numbers over the last three years have generally better than the team's numbers when he's not on the ice. To me that suggests that perhaps he isn't the problem with out PK.

Michalek is often used (I think, without checking numbers) on the fly on the PK... meaning he doesn't often start in the D zone. He comes on after the Sens already have good momentum on the PP and the other team isn't set up in the zone. He's the secondary player to come on, and doesn't get the hard PK shift.

Which could explain lower GA and shot numbers
 

Micklebot

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And looky at that, Spezza's numbers away from Michalek in that span are even better! a 0.994 GF20 vs a 0.870 GA20. Giving up more than Michalek away from him, but also getting a good deal more.

Have you considered the alternate linemates? When Spezza wasn't with Michalek, he tended to get guys like Alfredsson (2011-2013), MacArthur, or Zibanejad as a replacement. When Michalek downgrade from Spezza, it was to Zibanejad, Smith, Foligno (2011/12). Bit of a difference; Spezza was a legit star player with no comparable replacement (even if his last year hear was plagued with recover)

And if you want to talk about being selective, you excluded 2 of Michalek's 5 years here. Allows for that single 35 goal and 60 point season to play a much bigger role in your numbers.
I chose three years as it is relevant to how he currently plays. Is it problematic that his last fully healthy season he was very good away from Spezza? Or that he was good without Spezza prior to getting injured in 12/13?

It's also fun to see how many ways some posters can say "management is paid to do this, thus you need to shut up!" :sarcasm:

I've done no such thing. I have however shown that your analysis was sorely lacking, and if that's the kind of analytics you hope our management engages in I honestly don't know what to say other than it would lead to very poorly backed decision making.

You seem to think that because their conclusion was different than yours, that they didn't look at all the facts, but you've shown to be only looking at the smallest of samples, and not considering the most obvious of variables. Maybe the team did look deeper than that, maybe they didn't, but what you provided as evidence in this thread was not a solid foundation to make an informed decision, and likely would do more damage to the process than good.
 

Benjamin

Differently Financed
Jun 14, 2010
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yes
I just remember many times last season Michalek leaving his guy wide open and that player scoring because of it. More than any other forward.
 

God Says No

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Mar 16, 2012
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I just remember many times last season Michalek leaving his guy wide open and that player scoring because of it. More than any other forward.

That's my perception as well. Whether it's actually true or not I'm not sure. I was on the "do not re-sign" bandwagon last year. His preseason hasn't changed my mind. I'm really hoping he steps up during the regular season.
 

WhiteLight*

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I just remember many times last season Michalek leaving his guy wide open and that player scoring because of it. More than any other forward.

yeah although it might have been more even strength


he was baaad

not happy about the signing. Is he 4x better than Da Costa? Then Pageau? Then Puempel?


NOPE. He's a liability at times.
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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Michalek is often used (I think, without checking numbers) on the fly on the PK... meaning he doesn't often start in the D zone. He comes on after the Sens already have good momentum on the PP and the other team isn't set up in the zone. He's the secondary player to come on, and doesn't get the hard PK shift.

Which could explain lower GA and shot numbers

That's a fair point, though hard to judge the overall impact that would have on the numbers. I think the burden of proof should be on substantiating that he's a detriment to our PK, as I don't think anyone is suggesting that he's a defensive specialist, just that he's not (health permitting) a liability out there.
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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I just remember many times last season Michalek leaving his guy wide open and that player scoring because of it. More than any other forward.

I agree he was not at his best defensively last year. It wasn't until past the halfway mark that his skating looked up to snuff, so I think he was trying to make up for that and cheating offensively (teams focus was to get down ice fast as soon as possesion was gained, if he wasn't skating well, this is how tried to do it). He probably picked up some bad habits that continued even when he was skating better.
 

FolignoQuantumLeap

Don't Hold The Door
Mar 16, 2009
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Michalek's PK numbers over the last three years have generally better than the team's numbers when he's not on the ice. To me that suggests that perhaps he isn't the problem with out PK.



Have you looked at Hemsky's numbers away from Spezza? Seems fair that you apply the same standards, and Hemsky was even worse than Michalek when not on Spezza's line. Feel free to say that's all because of Edmonton, but the real important takeaway is that you're using a tiny sample (360 mins), which is really not worth much in the scheme of things. Over the last 3 years Michalek has the following stat line away from Spezza: 821:23 mins, 0.852 GF/20 0.803 GA/20 51.5 GF%. All at ES of course.

Maybe, just maybe, the team dug a little deeper than you did when analysing whether or not to re-sign Michalek.

All the numbers point to him being a solid producer, not the 35 goal guy we had when he played with a guy who was 6th in Hart voting and the Norris winner who ran away with defensive scoring. That to me, seems fair for his price tag and medium term. This wasn't much of a commitment by the club at 3 years.

His role and will be limited and line mates more suited to his skill set rather than him being our only reliable winger outside Alfie.

Take it further and look at what they did on the whole in the offseason, They add Chiasson, as 6'4 winger with some goal scoring touch, Legwand 6'2 C known for his two way game, Michalek fits right in there. The move actually follows through with seemingly an offseason plan or an idea of what we want to do this season. I didn't get this sense from the team over the past two years. This encourages me more than anything.
 

DrEasy

Out rumptackling
Oct 3, 2010
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I just remember many times last season Michalek leaving his guy wide open and that player scoring because of it. More than any other forward.
I wonder how much of it has to do with the system. I don't recall Michalek making such mistakes in previous years.
 

TheNewEra

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Jul 10, 2013
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michalek is a less pressure situation will recover. Lets face it until the ryan trade michalek was considered our number 1 winger, which is unfair to him because he does not have the skill for that. Even last year he was considered our number 2 winger because we did not know what we had with macarthur.

going into the season we have many forwards who have more pressure than michalek to perform (mac,turris,ryan,zibby,legwand) then you have the young guys who the fans are expecting more out of (stone,chaisson and to an extent hoffman and lazar)

imo michalek is going to be a 20 G, 25 A guy this season but he will fly under the radar since our expectations are not their for him anymore and even if he performs we will think its temporary. thats why i think he will be fine this year...absolutely no pressure
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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I wonder how much of it has to do with the system. I don't recall Michalek making such mistakes in previous years.

Focus last year was on making sure there was a quick transition from defense to offence. With Michalek rehabing early on, I think he cheated offenisively to try and cover up for his lack of acceleration while still not 100%. I think that caused some bad habits to set in even once he was healthy. Hopefully this year he focuses on ensuring the D has options once the puck is retrieved.
 

Sensinitis

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Aug 5, 2012
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Hopefully Milo puts up 20+20 this season. Would be nice, and he wasn't that far off last season.
 

Hale The Villain

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Michalek couldn't put up 40 points while being the primary shooter Spezza was looking to feed game in and game out last season.

I'd really love for Michalek to rebound this season, but I'm skeptical to say the least.
 

jbeck5

Registered User
Jan 26, 2009
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Milo and Spezza sucked together, so if anything he'll be better without him.

I'm really hoping this is true. Because for someone who's played so much with spezza over the years, his numbers are bruttalllll aside from that one year.
 
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