GDT: Training Camp 2022

[bucks_oil]

Technically if Murray gets hurt... Oilers are so tight to the cap that I don't think they can afford to call up Broberg... has to be a near minimum guy like Niemo... unless of course they send a guy like Shore down and swap out for someone like Benson/Klostin as well.

I think the hope (and this is a weird thing to hope for) is that some combination of more expensive players going down, and paper transactions on off-days, will build up enough cap space that Broberg would be affordable.

Perhaps a capologist like @Fourier can weigh in, but my understanding is that calculation of cap is on a day-by-day level, so you can ice a roster that is above $81.5M, as long as you aren't going to spend over 81.5M in total during the season.

 

[McBooya42]

Holland not afraid to do the right thing. Good.

 

[Paralyzer]

I can’t believe O’Neill predicted that the Oilers would win the Cup.

Someone in the studio must have held his precious Ketchup hostage in order to say that.

 

[Nostradumbass]

I think the hope (and this is a weird thing to hope for) is that some combination of more expensive players going down, and paper transactions on off-days, will build up enough cap space that Broberg would be affordable.

Perhaps a capologist like @Fourier can weigh in, but my understanding is that calculation of cap is on a day-by-day level, so you can ice a roster that is above $81.5M, as long as you aren't going to spend over 81.5M in total during the season.

Paper transactions on off days won’t work with how deep we are in LTIR.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I think the hope (and this is a weird thing to hope for) is that some combination of more expensive players going down, and paper transactions on off-days, will build up enough cap space that Broberg would be affordable.

Perhaps a capologist like @Fourier can weigh in, but my understanding is that calculation of cap is on a day-by-day level, so you can ice a roster that is above $81.5M, as long as you aren't going to spend over 81.5M in total during the season.

My understanding is that the Oilers don't accumulate any cap because they are always going to be over the cap limit due to LTIR (Smith/Klefbom on LTIR all season long means the cap max limit is always exceeded all year long)... so no relief there either.

Great insight... I think we can agree they are a far cry from 1.5, right? Which was the broader point.

Janmark is 2.6 oiGF and 2.5oiGA for a net +0.1. Shore is 2.7 oiGF and 2.9 oiGF for a net -0.2. On different teams. With different utilization. But it's at least arguable that they are in the same territory as replacement level NHLers.

Benson (which is where I was making the comparison) is 1.5oiGF and 2.9oiGA, for a net - 1.4!!! Playing on the same team, usually same linemates, as Shore. Last year he was not NHL level and it showed.

I still think Benson has more to give, but we are right to be very cautious about this guy and Shore has at least proven that he's (barely) an NHLer. Benson still needs to show that.

The sad thing about Benson is his play was FINALLY looking decent and almost instantly he gets an LTIR level injury... tough luck for both him and the team.

 

[Harry Curry]

My understanding is that the Oilers don't accumulate any cap because they are always going to be over the cap limit due to LTIR (Smith/Klefbom on LTIR all season long means the cap is always exceeded all year long)... so no relief there either.

That is correct.

LTIR really hamstrings teams for cap flexibility. There was no getting around it for the Oilers with Klefbom's injury. Hopefully the Oilers aren't in LTIR next year so the potential for accruing cap space in season exists.

 

[The Safe Play]

Everyone should give Daniel Nugent-Bowman a follow. He basically had the Oilers cap situation and possible scenarios figured out extremely early in the preseason. He's also one of the only Oiler MSM that has actual connections to what the Oilers are thinking.

I'm pretty sure he's talked about how they can handle injuries throughout the season also.

Bonus, he isn't an asshole like Spector and company.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I know Gazzola stated that JP had like a 70% chance of being gone from the Oilers by the start of the season... so unless he's gone in the next ~11 hours or so... chalk up another "insider" as being full of crappola.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

It's freakin' Game Day, finally.

 

[Fourier]

I think the hope (and this is a weird thing to hope for) is that some combination of more expensive players going down, and paper transactions on off-days, will build up enough cap space that Broberg would be affordable.

Perhaps a capologist like @Fourier can weigh in, but my understanding is that calculation of cap is on a day-by-day level, so you can ice a roster that is above $81.5M, as long as you aren't going to spend over 81.5M in total during the season.

What you say is somewhat true but does not apply to the Oilers. If a team is under the cap without LTIR they can accumulate cap space. In doing so it can allow you to field a roster that contains players whose combined cap hits exceeds $81.5M. But once you are using LTIR you no longer accumulate cap space.

In fact, if you start the season using LTIR, your effective ceiling is less than $81.5M for roster players and it stays at that number until such time as you no longer need LTIR because of player movements. This is why teams work to get their initial roster as close to the ceiling as possible.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I know Gazzola stated that JP had like a 70% chance of being gone from the Oilers by the start of the season... so unless he's gone in the next ~11 hours or so... chalk up another "insider" as being full of crappola.

He said a 70% chance, not 100%

 

[Paralyzer]

When will the GDT be put up? I wanna post some of my GIFs I made on there

 

[nexttothemoon]

He said a 70% chance, not 100%

So he's 70% full of crap... still a lot of crap.

Honestly any of us here could make up literally anything and attach a 50/70/90% tag to it and if it doesn't happen... oh well... guess something changed and the teams went "in another direction".

 

[Donner]

I know Gazzola stated that JP had like a 70% chance of being gone from the Oilers by the start of the season... so unless he's gone in the next ~11 hours or so... chalk up another "insider" as being full of crappola.

Given that 97 wants him around, I put no faith in what the Oilers MSM says. The Oilers MSM like to skewer one or two players and essentially run them out of town. They always follow the same formula

-In order to drum up page views and interest theyll pick a scape goat
-Go full on negative on the scape goat, causing many fans to turn on said player
-This creates unhappiness with the player and the GM seemingly gives in and trades this player for peanuts because of all the negativity around them
-Oilers MSM uses this trade as justification for their initial negativity. Then turns to a new player in order to continue getting the page views

I am happy McDavid put his foot down and prevented any trades thus far

 

[bucks_oil]

What you say is somewhat true but does not apply to the Oilers. If a team is under the cap without LTIR they can accumulate cap space. In doing so it can allow you to field a roster that contains players whose combined cap hits exceeds $81.5M. But once you are using LTIR you no longer accumulate cap space.

In fact, if you start the season using LTIR, your effective ceiling is less than $81.5M for roster players and it stays at that number until such time as you no longer need LTIR because of player movements. This is why teams work to get their initial roster as close to the ceiling as possible.

Thanks Fourier, @Nostradumbass and @nexttothemoon (and @Harry Curry).

The "I'll bet it doesn't apply because our LTIR screws up everything cap accrual related" passed my mind, but I wasn't sure.

So what was up with the ins and outs of the roster in the last few days, was that just to protect ourselves against Broberg & Holloway's bonus structure?

I've sorta lost track of all of this cap-ology this summer. I thought DNB had written in an analysis a few weeks ago, that there was no way for us to ice our best lineup on day 1, since at least one of Foegele or Ryan would have to be sent down and replaced with a league min guy? Did that get resolved when McLeod signed for ~$500K under expected?

And how do we manage to bring Broberg up in the event he's ready? Does he (and anyone making significantly above league min) only make it up to the team if someone else more expensive is on LTIR?

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

where's the GDT??

 

[bucks_oil]

where's the GDT??

And the HFOil made pump up video? (Del Preston?)

 

[FlameChampion]

I know Gazzola stated that JP had like a 70% chance of being gone from the Oilers by the start of the season... so unless he's gone in the next ~11 hours or so... chalk up another "insider" as being full of crappola.

From watching the end of season presser, no doubt in my mind that Holland wanted to move Puljujarvi. But I do think that Holland values him and is being patient with him. It is also possible that Brad Holland values him and is a voice in Kens ear. Its pretty obvious hes not moving him unless he gets something hes comfortable with in return. This is nice change from previous GM's of the past.

That being said, I heard Gazzola at the beginning of training camp say there was a 70% chance that JP would move before start of season (which I think is what you're alluding too) which I think was just a crappola thing to say as well. If JP wasnt moved prior to training camp, I think pretty good chance he was going to start with the team just from a logical point of view.

But yeah, I dont think a lot of the media (even Stauffer) have a great grasp on what Holland will do.

 

[Fourier]

Thanks Fourier, @Nostradumbass and @nexttothemoon (and @Harry Curry).

The "I'll bet it doesn't apply because our LTIR screws up everything cap accrual related" passed my mind, but I wasn't sure.

So what was up with the ins and outs of the roster in the last few days, was that just to protect ourselves against Broberg & Holloway's bonus structure?

I've sorta lost track of all of this cap-ology this summer. I thought DNB had written in an analysis a few weeks ago, that there was no way for us to ice our best lineup on day 1, since at least one of Foegele or Ryan would have to be sent down and replaced with a league min guy? Did that get resolved when McLeod signed for ~$500K under expected?

And how do we manage to bring Broberg up in the event he's ready? Does he (and anyone making significantly above league min) only make it up to the team if someone else more expensive is on LTIR?

Broberg was a "bonus" issue. The way it works is roughly this. When the season starts you have two LTIR pools. One is a salary pool which is simply the cap hits of the players on LTIR. The other is the more esoteric |bonus" pool. This is the sum of all performance bonuses for players on the roster at the start. After that point if you send a player down with a bonus you create space on the bonus side of the ledger. If you later bring a player up who also has a bonus you can use the space to go against the bonus. But if you don't have enough space, the excess from the bonus over the amount of space you have is charged against the salary pool.

With Broberg on the the day 1 roster the Oilers get $850K in bonus space once he is sent down. If they bring him back up his bonuses are covered and all they need is the salary space. Had he not been on the roster for day one the only bonus space they would have had was $500K from Holoway and $850K from Bouchard. With both on the roster to bring Broberg up you would need to have room for both his salary $863K and his bonus $850K on the salary side which they don't have.

 

[CycloneSweep]

So he's 70% full of crap... still a lot of crap.

Honestly any of us here could make up literally anything and attach a 50/70/90% tag to it and if it doesn't happen... oh well... guess something changed and the teams went "in another direction".

Holland pretty much said he was looking to trade him and other players.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

LET'S GO!!

 

[bucks_oil]

Broberg was a "bonus" issue. The way it works is roughly this. When the season starts you have two LTIR pools. One is a salary pool which is simply the cap hits of the players on LTIR. The other is the more esoteric |bonus" pool. This is the sum of all performance bonuses for players on the roster at the start. After that point if you send a player down with a bonus you create space on the bonus side of the ledger. If you later bring a player up who also has a bonus you can use the space to go against the bonus. But if you don't have enough space, the excess from the bonus over the amount of space you have is charged against the salary pool.

With Broberg on the the day 1 roster the Oilers get $850K in bonus space once he is sent down. If they bring him back up his bonuses are covered and all they need is the salary space. Had he not been on the roster for day one the only bonus space they would have had was $500K from Holoway and $850K from Bouchard. With both on the roster to bring Broberg up you would need to have room for both his salary $863K and his bonus $850K on the salary side which they don't have.

Very helpful thanks

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Someone make a thread already. lol

 

[nexttothemoon]

A 21 man roster isn't going to work for long... with someone like Yamo hurt... even if it's just a slight tweak... you have no bodies to spare... and a player like Foegele who might not play normally (because maybe he has a slight injury as well)... now he's in the game because otherwise you are a man short. This is all starting even in game 1.

In the playoffs it's expected that players will play through some injuries... because the "season" will be over relatively soon in best of 7 series where it's all on the line.

Here though as they start a long grueling 82 game season... a 21 man roster is just a recipe for disaster where more top players are likely going to burnout and get overworked/overplayed and some roster players will play slightly injured as well... it's a good way to insure you get less out of your roster than expected because of this shortened 21 man roster situation.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Goofball Gazzola has got less than 90 minutes to be right about his JP prediction... "insider"... meh... more like a typical pretender who just throws shit against the wall and sees what sticks... granted most of those "experts" do the same.



The collective here on HFboards has more intelligence and insights than 99% of this group of media insiders/experts all put together.