Training Camp 2017 Part II

[Evil Little]

http://nhlnumbers.com/2017/2/27/by-the-numbers-chemistry-roles-and-the-wrongful-usage-of-nic-petan

His literal death in hockey is Thorburn/Tanev, as it will be with Tanev/Hendricks this year.

Nails on a chalkboard...

How so? Run the numbers you want and make your own conclusions. Hockey analytics aren't all that complex, and they have pretty big gaps in their explanatory power. For Petan he had middle of the road possession numbers, was pushed into the offensive zone and had better quality team mates than Lowry for example. Who got s*** on in terms of the quality of team mates and pushed into the defensive zone relentlessly and still had approx same possession numbers.

He's big so f*** 'im.

Because raw stats don't really tell anything.

Player A had 70 points

Player B had 50 points

Player A had 70 points in 70 games

Player B had 50 points in 45 games

Player A had 70 points in 70 games averaging 15 min a game

Player B had 50 points in 45 games averaging 17 min a game

Player A had 70 points in 70 games averaging 15 min a game with 4 of those min being PP time

Player B had 50 points in 45 games averaging 17 min a game with zero PP time but 3 min PK time

Context matters. Not sure what raw stats you meant by your previous post, but Garret pretty succinctly broke down Petan with Tanev/Thorburn and away from Tanev/Thorburn and the differences are so drastic I don't see how you can ignore them.

Also, Petan did not have better quality teammates than Lowry game in and game out. He did for a short time, but his ice time with them playing on a competent line were so different than his ice time of 6-8 min with Thorburn that Wheeler is his second highest 5v5 linemate despite playing maybe 7-8 games with him out of his entire season.

If KB is going by CF% then that is a rate stat, not a raw stat.

 

[TannedBum]

Dano as a Pker? Horrible balance, speed & agility for his size + short & below average defensive stick = He loses at least 75% of the puck-battles as we have seen. Yeah, let's put him right there. OMG.

 

[Inflict]

Actually, his strength and balance is pretty darn good for his size. It's why he is so effective in front of the net. His skating is also not a liability. It's just average not below average. He's also pretty good on the forecheck and has more takeaways than giveaways, so I don't see why he shouldn't be given a chance on the PK.

 

[KingBogo]

Agree about Lowry.

I've been predicting about 60 games for Poolman as an injury replacement. By everyday player I assume you mean when healthy. Whose job is he going to take? Are you suggesting a trade?

I believe Poolman will be an everyday player by season's end because I think he will end being a solid 4/5 guy and after roster size limits disappear at the TD there is no need to be playing numbers games. Due to age he has only 1 season on a ELC so he will not be waiver eligible after this season making him an everyday NHLer. I have some real concerns about Myers long term health issues so he is the most likely to be replaced.

 

[Jimby]

I was responding to the narrative that the Jets were outliers and unsuccessful because other teams had scoring throughout their lineups and the Jets didn't. In the Western conference The playoff teams that played the most games last season all had only 6 forwards with 10 or more goals even strength. Jets had 7. The one playoff team that had more was the Wild and they were bumped in the first round.

The "other teams", and you proceed to name 2. One of those teams has 1.75 generational centers and an elite goalie.

 

[surixon]

I believe Poolman will be an everyday player by season's end because I think he will end being a solid 4/5 guy and after roster size limits disappear at the TD there is no need to be playing numbers games. Due to age he has only 1 season on a ELC so he will not be waiver eligible after this season making him an everyday NHLer. I have some real concerns about Myers long term health issues so he is the most likely to be replaced.

I believe he will be as Well, not just because he has the talent but also because the Jets can't allocate 10 million in cap space on their bottom pairing long term. I feel Myers gets played a decent amount and is dealt at some point if he stays healthy.

 

[JetsFan815]

He didn't use them they way you wanted him to. Is that you mean?

How do you get to be the one to decide whether it was right or not?

How so? Run the numbers you want and make your own conclusions. Hockey analytics aren't all that complex, and they have pretty big gaps in their explanatory power. For Petan he had middle of the road possession numbers, was pushed into the offensive zone and had better quality team mates than Lowry for example. Who got s*** on in terms of the quality of team mates and pushed into the defensive zone relentlessly and still had approx same possession numbers.

Why are people acting like what MardyBum is saying is somehow controversial? The fact that Petan dominated when playing with skilled player and was buried playing with plugs are facts, to say that the coach should use Petan correctly by keeping him away from plugs is also a reasonable conclusion to reach.

First of all Petan's "middle of the road" shot numbers are only because of all the time he spent playing with Thorburn and Tanev. Away from Thorburn and Tanev he was great, not only that he elevated the numbers of other skilled players (Wheeler). Here's Petan's RelCorsi for each line he played on:

All the minutes with Tanev and Thorburn dragged his shot numbers down. When playing guys like Wheeler, Dano, Connor he ellevated their shot numbers. These are small sample sizes but they clearly show a player who when put with other skilled players tilts the ice in favor of the Jets.

Petan CF% With Atleast 1 of Tanev/Thorburn on his line: 40.49
Petan CF% Away from Tanev/Thorburn: 53.20

The difference is night and day.

Petan did not have "better linemates" than Lowry. Petan spent ~38% of his ice time with atleast one of Thorburn/Tanev on the ice with him. Lowry only spent ~23% of his ice time with one of those guys with him. Even more crucially Lowry only spent 0.6 % of his icetime on the ice together with BOTH Tanev and Thorburn whereas Petan spent 12.36% of his ice time on the ice with BOTH Tanev and Thorburn.

Lowry's numbers with Thorburn/Tanev aren't much better than Petan (less than 1% better Corsi) despite having the good fortune of almost never having both Tanev and Thorburn on his wings at the same time. I don't mind Lowry as a player but if he gets similar deployment to Petan, he doesn't look that good.

Many of us fear that history will repeat itself this season with Hendricks replacing Thorburn.

 

[jetswin]

Dano as a Pker? Horrible balance, speed & agility for his size + short & below average defensive stick = He loses at least 75% of the puck-battles as we have seen. Yeah, let's put him right there. OMG.

He is either destined for PB or Moose...no way he kills penalties with Copp, Mathias, Hendricks, Armia, Lowry and top 6. Dano fans are likely to be very upset quite soon. I like him in a 4 th line role who can move up (like Copp can) but Hendricks et al will restrict his opportunity.

 

[Whileee]

Why are people acting like what MardyBum is saying is somehow controversial? The fact that Petan dominated when playing with skilled player and was buried playing with plugs are facts, to say that the coach should use Petan correctly by keeping him away from plugs is also a reasonable conclusion to reach.

First of all Petan's "middle of the road" shot numbers are only because of all the time he spent playing with Thorburn and Tanev. Away from Thorburn and Tanev he was great, not only that he elevated the numbers of other skilled players (Wheeler). Here's Petan's RelCorsi for each line he played on:

All the minutes with Tanev and Thorburn dragged his shot numbers down. When playing guys like Wheeler, Dano, Connor he ellevated their shot numbers. These are small sample sizes but they clearly show a player who when put with other skilled players tilts the ice in favor of the Jets.

Petan CF% With Atleast 1 of Tanev/Thorburn on his line: 40.49
Petan CF% Away from Tanev/Thorburn: 53.20

The difference is night and day.

Petan did not have "better linemates" than Lowry. Petan spent ~38% of his ice time with atleast one of Thorburn/Tanev on the ice with him. Lowry only spent ~23% of his ice time with one of those guys with him. Even more crucially Lowry only spent 0.6 % of his icetime on the ice together with BOTH Tanev and Thorburn whereas Petan spent 12.36% of his ice time on the ice with BOTH Tanev and Thorburn.

Lowry's numbers with Thorburn/Tanev aren't much better than Petan (less than 1% better Corsi) despite having the good fortune of almost never having both Tanev and Thorburn on his wings at the same time. I don't mind Lowry as a player but if he gets similar deployment to Petan, he doesn't look that good.

Many of us fear that history will repeat itself this season with Hendricks replacing Thorburn.

None of those sample sizes are large enough to draw any statistical inferences.

 

[Guerzy]

No disrespect intended but your giving him far too much credit here. We have a track record of behavior with Maurice extending back a number of years. His preferred line up configuration is exactly what he is running on Wednesday, it's far more likely he keeps this set up then actually trying something innovative or creative.

Yup. The fact of the matter for me is, sometimes you can't teach an old dog new tricks. Until the day comes Maurice shows otherwise, all we have to go on is what he's done (and continues to do) to this point. Not much there for me to give him the benefit of the doubt. As someone who has watched Maurice on/off as the coach of my teams (Canes x 2 / Jets x 1) dating back to the early 2000's, I can safely say (my opinion) that this is the most talented line-up, top to bottom, that he has ever had. Without question. But, this is the same head coach who stated Brandon Sutter was/would be an elite shutdown, all-around center in the NHL who would score goals and replace Rod Brind'Amour for the Canes (LOL). It's the same head coach who was in love with Chad LaRose (hello Tanev... SPEED!). It's the same head coach that when E. Staal was in a big slump thought it was a good idea to move Staal to the wing and run a no. 1 line of Staal - Sutter - LaRose for f***s sake. I laughed when I typed that line out it's so comical.

I am not a big believer in Paul Maurice, as I have stated many times before. But, as someone who has seen him coach my teams 3 times now, I really don't have much reason to be. I do think he can do good things here BUT in order to do that he will have to do things differently than he has done/shown in the past. To Paul's credit, he has coached teams to the SCF, ECF and took the Jets to the playoffs in 2015. But he has never been able to form any sort of consistency with his teams and generally speaking always has the same issues. He has always been a one year in then out coach. Overall, I feel really good about the roster as whole, I feel we could do really good things from here on out. But I still am very hesitant with Maurice. Basically, I am hoping for the best, but fully prepared for the worst.

Honestly, with how good I think this roster is from a pure talent standpoint and depth, I do think it will be hard(er) for Maurice to f*** this up. I mean, you'd have to be a pretty terrible coach to not have some regular season success with this roster, in my opinion, so long as the roster stays relatively healthy. But, if there is a coach who can do things to make it harder on himself, it's Maurice. His old school mindset and roster decisions just seem to fight against him more often than not.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I believe Poolman will be an everyday player by season's end because I think he will end being a solid 4/5 guy and after roster size limits disappear at the TD there is no need to be playing numbers games. Due to age he has only 1 season on a ELC so he will not be waiver eligible after this season making him an everyday NHLer. I have some real concerns about Myers long term health issues so he is the most likely to be replaced.

Fair enough.
So you are predicting that he will replace an injured player, probably Myers. I would still call that injury replacement unless the player is not expected back. Tomato/tomato. He would be playing everyday.

 

[Huffer]

No one disagrees with that in principal. The issue here is that some of the guys the Jets are trying to sell as "PK Specialists" are not good 5-on-5 and not really that good at the PK to make up for their 5v5 issues, moreover it results in the entire lineup being out of balance. Tanev was at the bottom of Jets forwards with > 50 mins played on the PK in terms for both shot impact and xG impact. Hendricks is around a middle of the road PK'r if you compare his last 5 years with what the Jets did last season, he comes out ahead of Tanev around the same ballpark as Matthias but behind guys like Lowry, Armia, Copp. We can most likely get a similar impact PK'r in-house that is much better 5 on 5 and can be a more versatile player for us

Agreed. I really like the idea of having the PK time come from the bottom 6 and free up the skill players in the top 6 for ES and PP time. I would bet we could get near universal acceptance on this board on that concept, and that's saying something.

Agreed as well as where it breaks down from what PoMo is doing and the opinions of many here. The players they have identified as being "PKrs" really aren't that great on the PK, and they contribute nothing offensively (Hendricks, Tanev).

Seems to make more sense to keep Hendricks and Tanev in the PB and roll with Lowry, Copp, Armia, and Dano as your main PK options. They likely won't be any worse than Hendricks and Tanev on the PK, and would make the roster much stronger overall.

 

[Guerzy]

The good thing about the special teams this season is the overall expectations that come a long with the roster now that really weren't there before. The last couple of seasons have been "learning years", if you will. Not anymore. If our PK sucks, it's a direct reflection on coaching and Maurice is the man who is going to have to answer for that.

Truth is, if the PK isn't any good and many of us think it's because of systems/player use, I am surely going to enjoy the flack Maurice takes for it because we're now in a results oriented phase with the team/organization and Maurice is ultimately going to have to answer the bell and take the heat for any missteps that fall on the coaches shoulders - be it PK, systems, discipline, etc.

The pressure is now on, and it begins in a little over 24 hours from right now. So if Maurice wants to use Tanev or Hendricks on the PK, I say go for it. If it works, great. If/when it does not work... well, all eyes are on coaching now.

 

[mcpw]

Lipon clears waivers, per LeBrun

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just have a hard time understanding what more Petan could have done when given a decent role on this team. His underlying numbers and scoring rates where fantastic. I truly believe if he had top 10 pedigree ala Ehlers we wouldn't be sitting here and talking as he'd never have been misused as he was the back half of last year as his results plus pedigree would never have left him marooned with junk on the 4th to begin with. Which means he wouldn't have disappointed and caused people to lose faith.

It's also not fair to signal him out in comparison to our other offensive minded kids who have all made their fair share of junior level mistakes. Some have been given far more leeway than others. So on one hand I agree that Petan needed to add some pace to his game but on the other hand to me that doesn't excuse using below replacement level players who work hard but are horribly ineffective because they can't think the game. I dont particularly see what message that sends other than the coach values the wrong attributes when it comes to winning.

Will Petan actually be given a legit chance to play his waybupnthe lineup, I have my doubts. I think be has far more to offer than Armia and eventually Lowry personally.

Good post. Particularly the bolded bits.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Connor did get PK TOI in preseason game 1. I also think the Copp injury has an effect on whether Connor plays or not. Right now with Copp out of the lineup they want another PK forward to pick up that slack. Especially if the games are still going to be called "tight" I'm not sure they trust Connor to be that guy right now. And how "healthy" is Lowry anyway?

Actually what might be a good plan is to send Connor to the Moose and give him major PK minutes to get comfortable in that role. He did zero PK in Michigan. He can probably excell in the role if given a chance. And what a threat he would be.

I like that idea. If Moe is so concerned with ST's roles then train good players to fill them instead of using sub NHL standard players in those roles. Could have been done last year with Petan and Dano while they were still waiver exempt instead of sitting them in the PB.

 

[TS Quint]

The good thing about the special teams this season is the overall expectations that come a long with the roster now that really weren't there before. The last couple of seasons have been "learning years", if you will. Not anymore. If our PK sucks, it's a direct reflection on coaching and Maurice is the man who is going to have to answer for that.

Truth is, if the PK isn't any good and many of us think it's because of systems/player use, I am surely going to enjoy the flack Maurice takes for it because we're now in a results oriented phase with the team/organization and Maurice is ultimately going to have to answer the bell and take the heat for any missteps that fall on the coaches shoulders - be it PK, systems, discipline, etc.

The pressure is now on, and it begins in a little over 24 hours from right now. So if Maurice wants to use Tanev or Hendricks on the PK, I say go for it. If it works, great. If/when it does not work... well, all eyes are on coaching now.

Do you think there is a chance they fire Maurice before his next contract begins?

 

[Weezeric]

Can we all remember that Babcock, the greatest coach to ever grace the NHL with his presence, is playing a tanev-type on the 1st line with Matthews and nylander...

 

[surixon]

Can we all remember that Babcock, the greatest coach to ever grace the NHL with his presence, is playing a tanev-type on the 1st line with Matthews and nylander...

I'm not sure why you are comparing Tanev to Hyman.

Hyman had 28 points on the year and sported a rate of 1.3 p/60 on 5 on 5 situations. which is more than anyone we had in the bottom 6 save Lowry.

He was also positive possession player at 51.5 CF% and relative possession player at 1.5 CF% whereas Tanev was a substantial minus in both metrics.

It seems to me one player isn't an NHL calibre player while the other is a solid third line forward that can contribute in a complimentary role with skilled forwards. Apple's and Oranges here Babcock is right to like the kid.

 

[Whileee]

I'm not sure why you are comparing Tanev to Hyman.

Hyman had 28 points on the year and sported a rate of 1.3 p/60 on 5 on 5 situations. which is more than anyone we had in the bottom 6 save Lowry.

He was also positive possession player at 51.5 CF% and relative possession player at 1.5 CF% whereas Tanev was a substantial minus in both metrics.

It seems to me one player isn't an NHL calibre player while the other is a solid third line forward that can contribute in a complimentary role with skilled forwards. Apple's and Oranges here Babcock is right to like the kid.

Hyman has been playing with Matthews and Nylander. In that light, his point production and possession stats aren't impressive at all. He's playing on the 1st line, and almost 17 minutes a night. That's a far cry from the role Tanev has ever played - apples to oranges, if you like. He's better than Tanev, to be sure. But he's also playing on the 1st line.

 

[surixon]

Hyman has been playing with Matthews and Nylander. In that light, his point production and possession stats aren't impressive at all. He's playing on the 1st line, and almost 17 minutes a night. That's a far cry from the role Tanev has ever played - apples to oranges, if you like. He's better than Tanev, to be sure. But he's also playing on the 1st line.

I'm not high on the kid, my point was that he's a legit NHL player unlike Tanev and he offers some utility by being able to keep his head above water in the top 6 which allows Babcock to spread his talent out. That's all.

 

[DashingDane]

Why are people acting like what MardyBum is saying is somehow controversial? The fact that Petan dominated when playing with skilled player and was buried playing with plugs are facts, to say that the coach should use Petan correctly by keeping him away from plugs is also a reasonable conclusion to reach.

First of all Petan's "middle of the road" shot numbers are only because of all the time he spent playing with Thorburn and Tanev. Away from Thorburn and Tanev he was great, not only that he elevated the numbers of other skilled players (Wheeler). Here's Petan's RelCorsi for each line he played on:

All the minutes with Tanev and Thorburn dragged his shot numbers down. When playing guys like Wheeler, Dano, Connor he ellevated their shot numbers. These are small sample sizes but they clearly show a player who when put with other skilled players tilts the ice in favor of the Jets.

Petan CF% With Atleast 1 of Tanev/Thorburn on his line: 40.49
Petan CF% Away from Tanev/Thorburn: 53.20

The difference is night and day.

Petan did not have "better linemates" than Lowry. Petan spent ~38% of his ice time with atleast one of Thorburn/Tanev on the ice with him. Lowry only spent ~23% of his ice time with one of those guys with him. Even more crucially Lowry only spent 0.6 % of his icetime on the ice together with BOTH Tanev and Thorburn whereas Petan spent 12.36% of his ice time on the ice with BOTH Tanev and Thorburn.

Lowry's numbers with Thorburn/Tanev aren't much better than Petan (less than 1% better Corsi) despite having the good fortune of almost never having both Tanev and Thorburn on his wings at the same time. I don't mind Lowry as a player but if he gets similar deployment to Petan, he doesn't look that good.

Many of us fear that history will repeat itself this season with Hendricks replacing Thorburn.

Dominating is a very generous choice of words. Better yes, but I only remember one game where I would say he dominated and that was in large part due to Wheels and Scheif.

There is no getting around the Thorburn/Tanev factor. It definitely had a huge impact on his shot metrics but it would be disingenuous not to also mention that he just doesn't have an amazing shot. He is a playmaker, not a shooter...

 

[HannuJ]

odd note:
not one rookie made the Jets' starting line-up

 

[surixon]

odd note:
not one rookie made the Jets' starting line-up

Not that odd since Maurice indicated that might be the case a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Aavco Cup]

odd note:
not one rookie made the Jets' starting line-up

Opening 23 man roster will have at least one rookie.

Opening night lineup hasn't been announced yet