Trading for First-Round Draft Picks

[InfinityIggy]

I wouldn't dump my bank account to buy a 1000 lottery tickets. So why stack the deck for McDavid, when he might just fall to someone else regardless? Its not like we can have all 30 picks for the 2015 draft.

Calgary might have a chance at McDavid on their own accord if they're going to do more selling at this deadline. That's an even more inexperienced team for the 2015 season!

Darn. Foiled Again.

 

[TheHudlinator]

I wouldn't dump my bank account to buy a 1000 lottery tickets. So why stack the deck for McDavid, when he might just fall to someone else regardless? Its not like we can have all 30 picks for the 2015 draft.

Calgary might have a chance at McDavid on their own accord if they're going to do more selling at this deadline. That's an even more inexperienced team for the 2015 season!

Not with that attitude.

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense if we are loading up with the hopes of getting McDavid as we will either get him with our pick or not at all as no one is trading the pick that gets him. If we think that next years 1st round in general is better than this years than I wouldn't mind getting next years picks but I think people are over blowing how "weak" this draft is.

If I remember correctly 2011 was touted as a weak draft going into its year and yet when you look at it now there are some really good players and not just the 1st round. I personally am not buying into the hype that this draft is "weak" but that it is weaker than last year (which was very strong) so it is being given the perception of being "weak". If some teams think it is weak it would be prefect to load up on picks this year as teams would be more willing to give their 1sts.

 

[DCDM]

Darn. Foiled Again.

ROFL.

 

[Rangediddy]

I wouldn't dump my bank account to buy a 1000 lottery tickets. So why stack the deck for McDavid, when he might just fall to someone else regardless? Its not like we can have all 30 picks for the 2015 draft.

Calgary might have a chance at McDavid on their own accord if they're going to do more selling at this deadline. That's an even more inexperienced team for the 2015 season!

That's the worst analogy ever.

Its not a 1 in 1000 chance of winning this lotto. Even if you disregard the higher probabilities for finishing lower in the standings, we already have a 1 in 14 chance of getting drawn. That's 13 other teams that can be picked. If we get another non-playoff team's 1st, that's 1 less team that can win and 1 more chance for us. THEN you add in the probabilities that go along with each draft position. It's possible that we can sit with over 1/3 chance of winning by picking up even one more team's draft pick.

The cost-to-potential payoff ratio for McDavid is sooooo much higher than anyone else in the 2014 draft that you have to take some chances on it.

 

[MonahanTheMan]

I wouldn't dump my bank account to buy a 1000 lottery tickets. So why stack the deck for McDavid, when he might just fall to someone else regardless? Its not like we can have all 30 picks for the 2015 draft.

Calgary might have a chance at McDavid on their own accord if they're going to do more selling at this deadline. That's an even more inexperienced team for the 2015 season!

The thing is, though, with multiple firsts in 2015, we can parlay those into higher picks in that draft. If we have lots of 2015s this year, we can trade them early in 2014 to teams that could bomb for theirs. Just don't trade ours since there's a good shot we could get McDavid by draft position alone :/

 

[Ace Rimmer]

The thing is, though, with multiple firsts in 2015, we can parlay those into higher picks in that draft. If we have lots of 2015s this year, we can trade them early in 2014 to teams that could bomb for theirs. Just don't trade ours since there's a good shot we could get McDavid by draft position alone :/

From the sounds of things, Feaster tried that at the last draft, and failed.

If it's a deep draft, nobody's going to be very willing to move down.

 

[MonahanTheMan]

From the sounds of things, Feaster tried that at the last draft, and failed.

If it's a deep draft, nobody's going to be very willing to move down.

But that was at the draft - teams might be more willing to trade down prior to the draft itself because things aren't as set in stone.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

This survey is bias and ridiculous!

What about the 2016 draft?!
Or even the 2017 draft!?

I mean, I just heard about a 13 year old who has narcolepsy and can literally play hockey in HIS SLEEP!! If I recall, his name was Tom something.

We need to trade Monahan and Baerstchi for first round picks now so that we can BOMB for TOM at the 2018 draft!

Seriously, it's McDavid. He's been well-known for years, and he's considered the best prospect since Tavares (possibly, depending who you ask, since Crosby). That's something worth waiting a year to get an extra crack at, I think.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Not with that attitude.

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense if we are loading up with the hopes of getting McDavid as we will either get him with our pick or not at all as no one is trading the pick that gets him. If we think that next years 1st round in general is better than this years than I wouldn't mind getting next years picks but I think people are over blowing how "weak" this draft is.

If you trade with a team two years in advance, they're not going to trade with the expectation that they'll be bad, most of the time. But There's almost a 50/50 chance of a team's pick being a lottery pick now, and every increase in likelihood of drafting first overall counts.

 

[TheHudlinator]

If you trade with a team two years in advance, they're not going to trade with the expectation that they'll be bad, most of the time. But There's almost a 50/50 chance of a team's pick being a lottery pick now, and every increase in likelihood of drafting first overall counts.

I don't like it most teams adding this year aren't in the last year if their playoff runs. I would rather trade for this year draft a good prospect and see what happens the year after.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Not with that attitude.

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense if we are loading up with the hopes of getting McDavid as we will either get him with our pick or not at all as no one is trading the pick that gets him. If we think that next years 1st round in general is better than this years than I wouldn't mind getting next years picks but I think people are over blowing how "weak" this draft is.

If I remember correctly 2011 was touted as a weak draft going into its year and yet when you look at it now there are some really good players and not just the 1st round. I personally am not buying into the hype that this draft is "weak" but that it is weaker than last year (which was very strong) so it is being given the perception of being "weak". If some teams think it is weak it would be prefect to load up on picks this year as teams would be more willing to give their 1sts.

Good post.

 

[MarkGio]

That's the worst analogy ever.

Its not a 1 in 1000 chance of winning this lotto. Even if you disregard the higher probabilities for finishing lower in the standings, we already have a 1 in 14 chance of getting drawn. That's 13 other teams that can be picked. If we get another non-playoff team's 1st, that's 1 less team that can win and 1 more chance for us. THEN you add in the probabilities that go along with each draft position. It's possible that we can sit with over 1/3 chance of winning by picking up even one more team's draft pick.

The cost-to-potential payoff ratio for McDavid is sooooo much higher than anyone else in the 2014 draft that you have to take some chances on it.

I don't believe there's a legitimate stacking of the deck. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that over the course of the draft history, the years in which a team had multiple first round picks were not getting the 1st overall pick (statistically) more than teams who only had one first overall pick. I bet its the same odds, likely because teams who trade away a first rounder will not be a bottom 14th team and increase the odds of landing the first overall.

 

[Rangediddy]

I don't believe there's a legitimate stacking of the deck. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that over the course of the draft history, the years in which a team had multiple first round picks were not getting the 1st overall pick (statistically) more than teams who only had one first overall pick. I bet its the same odds, likely because teams who trade away a first rounder will not be a bottom 14th team and increase the odds of landing the first overall.

Well you wouldn't bother trading with anyone making playoffs anyways. Unfortunately, anyone not making playoffs isn't going to trade their first. But if the question is should we try to trade for 2015 picks over 2014, I think yes, you have to. Just the liklihood of being able to get a fair deal on a first is slim.

 

[benfool]

Seriously, it's McDavid. He's been well-known for years, and he's considered the best prospect since Tavares (possibly, depending who you ask, since Crosby). That's something worth waiting a year to get an extra crack at, I think.

Yes but a lot can change, I remember hearing a few years ago that Nathan Mackinnon was going to be the next Sidney Crosby. At that age with the players bodies still developing you don't know what is going to happen in a few years. Use Ekblad for example, he is the stud now, what if other kids who are late developers start to develop and catch him?

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Mackinnon and Ekblad on the flames but does not mean they will be the best come draft time.

Anybody have any word on Johnny Hockey?