Trading for First-Round Draft Picks

[1989]

The Flames are likely to be a bottom 5 team in the league this season and are popular frontrunners for drafting one of Aaron Ekblad or Sam Reinhart. However, it has been circulated that the 2014 draft overall is a much shallower draft past the first 5 prospects.

Assuming Calgary does obtain one of Reinhart or Ekblad and they are able to contribute to the big club immediately and thus manage to somehow put the club into the 5-9 draft pick range for 2015 but they clearly need a game-changing prospect like a McDavid, should the team set their eyes on trying to obtain more first-round picks from the 2015 draft now through trade in a bid to move up through lottery or whatever circumstance in order to obtain better prospects?

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[DCDM]

I don't know
















From what I've heard, the 2014 draft is weaker than both 2015 and what 2013 was. So I guess go for 2015 picks?

 

[Anglesmith]

Given we should only be a few years away from having our team pretty much built, I don't think it is a good idea to intentionally delay our draft choices. Predictions of the strength of one draft vs. another have historically been an inconsistent endeavour at best, and the sooner we draft guys, the sooner they're ready to help us, and the closer in age to our current rising stars they will be.

However, I think our main priority should be whichever picks the other team covets less. If they will give us a better return with a 2015 pick than a 2014, I'd take that 2015 and make the opposite argument.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

If they're first round picks, I'd say go for 2015 every time. Second round or later, and 2014 is probably preferable due to the prospects being ready a little more quickly. The first round picks are solely on the strength of the fact that a given team may miss the playoffs, thus increasing Calgary's chance of winning the McDavid lottery.

 

[InfinityIggy]

If we can move our 2014 2nd + ? for a 2015 1st, id do it.

 

[1989]

Sorry, I edited the post. I did mean for first-round picks in either 2014 or 2015.

 

[herashak]

How i see it is. trade away the filler in 2014 (stajan, cammy, stempniak, possibly hudler, jackman for anything, etc...). then in 2015 look at how our d is progressing and we could trade away gio maybe trade away glenncross for a cup run if he wants. all deals made around the deadline.

 

[Gritty]

Given we should only be a few years away from having our team pretty much built, I don't think it is a good idea to intentionally delay our draft choices. Predictions of the strength of one draft vs. another have historically been an inconsistent endeavour at best, and the sooner we draft guys, the sooner they're ready to help us, and the closer in age to our current rising stars they will be.

However, I think our main priority should be whichever picks the other team covets less. If they will give us a better return with a 2015 pick than a 2014, I'd take that 2015 and make the opposite argument.

Great post. Sums up my thoughts on this subject.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

The 2015 draft hasn't been had a lot of analysis done to it. Remember these are 16 year old kids right now. It could turn out to be just as weak (or just as strong) as the 2014 draft.

I don't think anyone other than perhaps Cammalleri gets a 1st round pick anyways. So my vote would be for "doesn't matter" and get the best (highest) picks they can.

 

[MarkGio]

If you consider that 2014 picks will have a year extra of development and therefore able to help the Flames sooner, this might be the draft to focus on. Otherwise we're looking at a 5 year rebuild if you consider the few years of development before a draft pick pans out to expectations.

 

[MarkGio]

Given we should only be a few years away from having our team pretty much built, I don't think it is a good idea to intentionally delay our draft choices. Predictions of the strength of one draft vs. another have historically been an inconsistent endeavour at best, and the sooner we draft guys, the sooner they're ready to help us, and the closer in age to our current rising stars they will be.

However, I think our main priority should be whichever picks the other team covets less. If they will give us a better return with a 2015 pick than a 2014, I'd take that 2015 and make the opposite argument.

Or what Wflames said ^^

 

[Calculon]

I don't know whether the 2014 draft is weak by itself, or weak compared to the 2013 draft class, which was considered much stronger than average. And I haven't heard much about the 2015 class, but I suspect that if it's being called strong right now, it's more likely due to McDavid than an overabundance of quality prospects.

A lot can change in two years when it comes to talking about 15 and 16 years old. The 2015 draft could quite well mirror 2004, which was paper thin after Ovechkin/Malkin.

But given the McDavid hype, it'll still probably be easier to obtain 2014 first rounders than 2015 ones, as few if any GM's, even one worried about their job, would want to give up a shot at McDavid, even if it's a slim one at that.

I say target 2014. If the Flames can land at one more first round pick, perhaps they can try moving up to get a second top five pick using other assets, and of course that is assuming the Flames finish in the bottom five. That would get them a solid chance at landing a couple of Ekblad, Rienhart, Nylander, Draisaitl and whoever else looks promising.

 

[Demetric]

depends on the team getting the first from, if a team like pit, bos, la then just go for 2014 as they are 99% not going to miss the playoffs in 2015 so getting their 1st then wont help getting McDavid, but if it is a team like Islanders or Preditors where they are more of a possible bubble team or Vancouver a team that looks to be on the decline, try for the 2015. The more 1st of those that dont make the playoffs the more numbers you have in the hat for that lottery.

This all depends on how highly real world GMs value that chance at McDavid, might not even be possible

 

[TheHudlinator]

I don't get what your saying. Are you saying we should trade for 2014 picks for 2015? Are you saying we should target 2015 draft picks in trade?

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I don't know whether the 2014 draft is weak by itself, or weak compared to the 2013 draft class, which was considered much stronger than average. And I haven't heard much about the 2015 class, but I suspect that if it's being called strong right now, it's more likely due to McDavid than an overabundance of quality prospects.

A lot can change in two years when it comes to talking about 15 and 16 years old. The 2015 draft could quite well mirror 2004, which was paper thin after Ovechkin/Malkin.

But given the McDavid hype, it'll still probably be easier to obtain 2014 first rounders than 2015 ones, as few if any GM's, even one worried about their job, would want to give up a shot at McDavid, even if it's a slim one at that.

I say target 2014. If the Flames can land at one more first round pick, perhaps they can try moving up to get a second top five pick using other assets, and of course that is assuming the Flames finish in the bottom five. That would get them a solid chance at landing a couple of Ekblad, Rienhart, Nylander, Draisaitl and whoever else looks promising.

Great post, I agree with all this.

 

[MarkGio]

This survey is bias and ridiculous!

What about the 2016 draft?!
Or even the 2017 draft!?

I mean, I just heard about a 13 year old who has narcolepsy and can literally play hockey in HIS SLEEP!! If I recall, his name was Tom something.

We need to trade Monahan and Baerstchi for first round picks now so that we can BOMB for TOM at the 2018 draft!

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Was it Tom Pielon?

 

[MarkGio]

Was it Tom Pielon?

Oh man, not even. Tom Pielon is going to be the next Gretzky, able to play hockey at a high level while in a coma. We need to find a way to draft him!

 

[InfinityIggy]

Was it Tom Pielon?

Mark Pielon* Goaltending Phantasm to the Stars.

 

[DFF]

Dont you worry...they'll be in the top 5 for both 2014 and 1015

 

[marbsarebad]

I say we pick a team to trade for 2015 first rounders that's kind of on a downward spiral, but still desperate for the cup this year to trade away their first-round.


I'm thinking Vancouver or the Sharks.

There's no other teams that are going to be bad next year that's not already bad this year that will give us picks.

 

[QcFlames12]

Personally I say we should push to gather another extremely high draft pick in this upcoming draft. With our pick and maybe another basement or borderline basement team we would be able to fill some major holes such as defence and right wing. What I am proposing drafting for example Ekblad and Vitranen. Vitranen could be huge for the flames as I see him being an ideal partner to play beside Monaham. Nothing to say about Ekblad as he is most likely going to be a very strong number one defencman in the show for quite a while.

 

[Rangediddy]

Ideally, yes, obtain as many 2015 first rounders you can get to increase the chance of winning the lottery and selecting first. McDavid is a franchise player, arguably in the 'generational talent' category. He's a game changer and would put the Flames in a good position for a long time.

That being said, he would put 29 other teams in good positions as well and the cost to pry any other team's 1st from them will cost quite a bit more than Cammelleri.

The best chance we have is taking a chance that a team that thinks it'll make playoffs next year but might not (like Vancouver, San Jose, Detroit, Islanders, Columbus, etc.) and give them players they think will help them make playoffs... which we then hope they won't. But the risk would be too high if they did make it.

A smart person would target 2014 1st rounders because they're actually valued fairly, but if you can get a 2015, you have to.

 

[TylerSVT*]

This survey is bias and ridiculous!

What about the 2016 draft?!
Or even the 2017 draft!?

I mean, I just heard about a 13 year old who has narcolepsy and can literally play hockey in HIS SLEEP!! If I recall, his name was Tom something.

We need to trade Monahan and Baerstchi for first round picks now so that we can BOMB for TOM at the 2018 draft!

I think it's more to do with, would you rather have a prospect in the system for a year developing, or having another possible chance at McDavid (assuming the 1st is from a non-playoff team).

I want as many swings as possible for that 2015 draft, the team that gets McDavid is going to be a good team going forward.

 

[MarkGio]

I wouldn't dump my bank account to buy a 1000 lottery tickets. So why stack the deck for McDavid, when he might just fall to someone else regardless? Its not like we can have all 30 picks for the 2015 draft.

Calgary might have a chance at McDavid on their own accord if they're going to do more selling at this deadline. That's an even more inexperienced team for the 2015 season!