Rumor: Trades/Proposals: This Offseason can we transition from the "Wasted Years" to living in the Golden Y

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Contracts signed after the 2013 CBA started do not have a recapture penalty. Recapture only applies to legacy deals that are 6 years or more. Other changes were made to prevent the severe back-diving contracts under the new CBA.

Any idea what Keith's recapture penalty would be?

 

[CycloneSweep]

Trust me, my patience is probably thinner than most around here when it comes to wasting our McDrai window. I just see Jones as a very good player who is really close to putting “it” together

I see Jones as a guy who has some potential but isn't good enough at anything to elevate himself. He is a guy who can look good for advanced stats but has a negative effect on the ice. His game looks good with Larsson but he struggles with anyone else.

Could he be a #4 defender? Possibly. Does he have a metric crap ton of issues in his game he has to work on first? Yep.

Nurse, Russell, Lagesson are all guys ahead of him right now with Broberg and Samorukov coming and we need to find 1-2 guys to play above him. He is one of those guys that number crunchers love but anyone who watches the games see it completely different.

 

[Fourier]

What does his NMC do to this though?

The player must be placed on unconditional waivers to mutually terminate his contract. If he is claimed he can use the NMC to prevent the claim from succeding and then he could terminate the contract. So in effect, the player has a veto of the waiver conseqeunces.

 

[Fourier]

Any idea what Keith's recapture penalty would be?

Roughly $4M per year for the next 2 years.

 

[belair]

The issue there is attributing those numbers to an impact by Jones.

If you look at his individual numbers, you see a guy who struggles a ton in transition and defensively.

Oilers Blueliners: Puck Moving and Puck Transporting

He's also a player who is better suited to a more freewheeling system. His big hiccups this season were ill-timed pinches and a clear unwillingness to commit to shot blocks. His ability to identify passing lanes in the defensive zone leaves a lot to be desired as well.

There might be a player with a small upside in terms of offense, but he's a player that can't be trusted to take a significant chunk of PK responsibility. So what's the point?

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Roughly $4M per year for the next 2 years.

What about Kassian and Turris for Keith (1.5 mil) retained

 

[Del Preston]

I mean at the end of the day isn't Jones gone regardless? Either in trade or to Seattle?

If we're lucky.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

What about Kassian and Turris for Keith (1.5 mil) retained

edit; didnt mean to quote you.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Ok. I just forgot how to internet

 

[McDrai]

The issue there is attributing those numbers to an impact by Jones.

If you look at his individual numbers, you see a guy who struggles a ton in transition and defensively.

Oilers Blueliners: Puck Moving and Puck Transporting

Yep. I remember seeing some stats on the various pairings and Larsson pretty much carried all of his D partners. He's a must sign for us imo

Jones is a dime a dozen player. Think Matt Benning.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

The longer this goes on the higher the chance I see Chicago buying Keith out. And he may sign here for like $1M/1yr

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Yep. I remember seeing some stats on the various pairings and Larsson pretty much carried all of his D partners. He's a must sign for us imo

Larsson was great last year, honestly. Without his play on the 2nd pairing this team would have struggled alot more.

 

[Oilhawks]

The longer this goes on the higher the chance I see Chicago buying Keith out. And he may sign here for like $1M/1yr

The longer it goes, the lower his price, buyout or trade, IMO

 

[GOilers88]

Ok. I just forgot how to internet

I'm intrigued, do go on

 

[subnet]

What I haven't seen much of (or any) on this thread, is if we did get Keith, what would that do to our protected list for the expansion draft?

It seems most here think Jones will get picked up by Seattle. If he's a part of a Keith trade, then who do we realistically lose? Kassian?

If we did do some kind of trade where we send Jones and 50% of Kostco or Neal, then exposed Keith, who Seattle takes, then it would be us losing Jones (who would have been gone anyway), plus getting rid of 50% of a bad contract for free.

We'd get rid of 1/2 of an expensive contract 'for free', Chi would get Jones at lose a high caphit while taking on 1/2 of one, and Seattle would get a player that's declining but can still play, with a low salary... win-win-win.

Or am I out to lunch lol

 

[Del Preston]

Keith's buyout would be over $4 million this season and over $4.6 million next season. It makes no sense not to retain salary rather than do the buyout. Even at 50% retention, the Hawks would be saving $1.3 million this year and $1.9 million next.

 

[Ck1]

No one is comparing him to be.

we have waited since 2015 for the development of late picks to come to fruition and now when we are on the cusp, we want to dump him for a vet who has 2 years max in him rather than see what we have in said player

Some think we should be in win now mode some want us to keep developing our young assets. We need to find a balance and we have some good up and coming d-men. And maybe we need to move a couple assets for some experienced vets who know how to win. I’m not saying that should be Keith but we should be bringing in someone

 

[Oilhawks]

What I haven't seen much of (or any) on this thread, is if we did get Keith, what would that do to our protected list for the expansion draft?

It seems most here think Jones will get picked up by Seattle. If he's a part of a Keith trade, then who do we realistically lose? Kassian?

If we did do some kind of trade where we send Jones and 50% of Kostco or Neal, then exposed Keith, who Seattle takes, then it would be us losing Jones (who would have been gone anyway), plus getting rid of 50% of a bad contract for free.

Or am I out to lunch lol

I think Seattle would have to take Klefbom or Lagesson then. Or at least those two choices make the most sense

 

[Little Fury]

I see Jones as a guy who has some potential but isn't good enough at anything to elevate himself. He is a guy who can look good for advanced stats but has a negative effect on the ice. His game looks good with Larsson but he struggles with anyone else.

Could he be a #4 defender? Possibly. Does he have a metric crap ton of issues in his game he has to work on first? Yep.

Nurse, Russell, Lagesson are all guys ahead of him right now with Broberg and Samorukov coming and we need to find 1-2 guys to play above him.

There's no way Laggesson or Russell should be ahead of Jones at this point and Samorukov and Broberg are one and two years away respectively.

He is one of those guys that number crunchers love but anyone who watches the games see it completely different.

Yeah there's a reason for that. People see a guy who makes some mistakes and they fixate on those especially when they end up in the back of the net (like that one game where he made a bad pinch at the red line that lead to a GA that everyone blamed on him and not the three other players who had chances to stop it).

 

[CycloneSweep]

There's no way Laggesson or Russell should be ahead of Jones at this point and Samorukov and Broberg are one and two years away respectively.



Yeah there's a reason for that. People see a guy who makes some mistakes and they fixate on those especially when they end up in the back of the net (like that one game where he made a bad pinch at the red line that lead to a GA that everyone blamed on him and not the three other players who had chances to stop it).

You know who else had good fancy stats and didn't pass the eye test?

Matt Benning

 

[Little Fury]

You know who else had good fancy stats and didn't pass the eye test?

Matt Benning

Matt Benning was and is a perfectly cromulent bottom pairing D man, I'm not sure referencing him does much to help your point.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Anyone thinking Seattle will claim Keith, they need to think a little more rationally about about it. I believe Seattle will try to win by following the Vegas model and not select washed up veterans with horrible contracts. It won't happen unless Chicago surrenders a first rounder to Seattle.

Let it go, why would anyone worry about getting Ducan Keith at this point in his career. James Neal has the preferable contract.

The Oilers are 5 or 6 good players away from contending and some of those positions are crucial and difficult to come by. They are a middle of the pack hockey club. That's pathetic when you consider we have not one but two elite centers that camouflage how underwhelming this team really is. They will remain a middle of the pack hockey club until they start bringing in actual competitive players. Adding Keith most likely makes the Oilers worse on ice and cripples the franchise further against the cap with a dog of a contract for two seasons.

If Holland goes after Keith and doesn't do a garbage out for garbage in type of transaction he is done, not with just the Oilers but as a relevant executive in the NHL.

And don't worry about losing Jones to Seattle. Jones will be that clubs tenth best player at best and that's being optimistic for his future. If you can shuffle Jones for someone we can protect in the expansion draft then do it but we have replacements for Jones in house. We are going to lose someone in the draft. I kind of wish we had better players to expose in the draft. It would mean we have actual depth and ceased being a joke.

 

[K1984]

He's also a player who is better suited to a more freewheeling system. His big hiccups this season were ill-timed pinches and a clear unwillingness to commit to shot blocks. His ability to identify passing lanes in the defensive zone leaves a lot to be desired as well.

There might be a player with a small upside in terms of offense, but he's a player that can't be trusted to take a significant chunk of PK responsibility. So what's the point?

This is how I see him too. Has the tools, but no toolbox.

I see Jones' top, top end potential as a #4D on an average team paired with a guy that's way better than him. Don't see him possibly anchoring a d pair on his own that is at all respectable in the top 4.

Petry on the other hand was showing clear signs of being a top end defenseman, and was already an NHL top 4 pretty clearly by the time he was traded. The f*** up there was MacMoron walking his deal to UFA because he didn't like him. Meanwhile in that UFA season he started to blossom into a player that had real quality (I recall him taking over a game in Montreal in his last season that we won in OT), but had no trade value because he played for a shit team and was UFA.

These aren't remotely comparable situations. Petry largely was already a top 4 quality D when we traded him. Jones is still barely an NHLer.

 

[McJadeddog]

Keith's buyout would be over $4 million this season and over $4.6 million next season. It makes no sense not to retain salary rather than do the buyout. Even at 50% retention, the Hawks would be saving $1.3 million this year and $1.9 million next.

That makes sense from the Hawks perspective, but why would the Oilers make that trade? Just wait until the Hawks buy him out and then sign for $1.5 M. There is no way the Oilers would have to pay him the $2.7 M he would cost us if the Hawks retained 50%. It is 100% beneficial for the Oilers to just let Chicago deal with their problem, and then scoop him up afterwards. Why would we do them any favors here?

 

[belair]

TO Edm

Ekman Larsson - (3.25 AAV million retention)
Kuemper

To Ari
Neal
Koskinen

Only way I would do that taking that contract length on Ekman-Larsson even then I am hesitant...

I don't mind @780il's idea of having the Coyotes retaining $2.25m of his deal. Assuming Neal's contract is headed the other way in a potential deal, the cap impact of that deal over the first four seasons would be $4.1m considering we intended to buy out Neal anyways.

In years five and six OEL's actual salary drops to $5.25m, $3.82m of which the Oilers would be on the hook for. At 34/35 where's his game at? Where's the salary cap in 2025? There's a pretty significant chance that contract is pretty manageable at that point. The buyout isn't terrible considering Arizona is eating over a quarter of it.

I think OEL's game would age in a similar manner Keith Yandle's did heading into his 30s. I don't think he's anywhere the level of player he was when he was younger, but in a similar way to Yandle, he'd benefit from being placed in a better situation.