Trade up or keep the 3 second rounders?

[Steve Yzerlland]

I would only trade in to the 1st round if someone Yzerman really likes falls. If that doesn't happen then stay put.

This can literally be copied and pasted every draft lol.

 

[odin1981]

I'd prefer to keep our own and deal the other two for a #15-25 range pick but no further than #25.

 

[Snuggs]

Wait and see situation... Red Wings need to go get a defensemen somehow some way. 3 2nd round picks might be a start?

I don't love anyone outside the obvious first two guys, and if Red Wings fall out of the first two picks, then maybe a trade down for more picks, in other years even, is the way to go in this rebuild. Scatter-shot approach.

 

[nhlisawesome]

Who gives a shit. Until we fire Shithill, waive Abelkader and Nielsen, we're going to suck balls

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Who gives a shit. Until we fire Shithill, waive Abelkader and Nielsen, we're going to suck balls

We're going to "suck balls" regardless of doing any of these things.

 

[Peter Tosh]

Pros and cons with trading up or down. One option maybe is to trade one second rounder in '20 for a second and a third in '21

 

[Winger98]

If the Wings are trading into the 1st round for another pick, I think it involves them moving a player and not just picks.

 

[izlez]

Selfishly, I'd like to trade up so it is more likely a guy I've heard of with plenty of videos available online.

Realistically, you trust your GM to find talent in the 2nd round or identify a guy that is worth trading up for. I can't comment at all (especially at this point) who those guys might be

 

[Killerjas]

I kinda want to see a trade similar to last year, dealing a 6th round pick for 2 7th round picks. We drafted Gylander and Tyutyayev , both looking really solid.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Looking at consensus prospect rankings and mock drafts, 53 players are graded consistently in the first round. So I just stay put or trade back to make sure I have as many picks as possible in the first 53.

 

[datsyukfan]

Wonder if Stevie strikes a deal with Tampa using a 2nd to try to get a quality player like Johnson, gourde, or cernak. Tampa is up against the cap badly maybe it wouldn’t even take a 2nd to get a guy like Johnson as he would be more of a cap dump but he seems like a perfect fit at 2C especially if we get Laf. Would definitely help speed up the rebuild

 

[Henkka]

Wonder if Stevie strikes a deal with Tampa using a 2nd to try to get a quality player like Johnson, gourde, or cernak. Tampa is up against the cap badly maybe it wouldn’t even take a 2nd to get a guy like Johnson as he would be more of a cap dump but he seems like a perfect fit at 2C especially if we get Laf. Would definitely help speed up the rebuild

Their only opening full NTC (--> to modified) at next summer is Killorn and I'm not interested in him. Tool old for our core maybe.

They are gonna trade one ~5M level contract for sure, very probably Killorn.

 

[BinCookin]

GM's are notoriously stingy with those 1st round picks now a days.

I would prefer to move the 2nd for a young player or prospect or player that needs a change of scenery who is still youngish.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I dunno how many more times that draft pick value chart needs to be debunked before people stop using it.

I'm not disputing the "debunking" nor dismissing this chart, but do you have any chart(s) that say otherwise? I've seen a few over the years but never saved them. Thanks.

 

[jkutswings]

GM's are notoriously stingy with those 1st round picks now a days.

I would prefer to move the 2nd for a young player or prospect or player that needs a change of scenery who is still youngish.

I hear there's a kid in Edmonton with speed to burn, but has consistency issues.

Too soon for that joke?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

The obvious answer is that it depends upon who exactly is on the board. It is a really difficult question to answer in a vacum.

I am typically opposed to moving up as a matter of principal because the expected production of a player taken in the back quarter of the first round is substantially similar to a player taken anywhere in the second or third. As such, the best thing to do is to make as many picks as possible (although you don't really need more than 11 picks in a draft). When people talk about first round picks, they are really thinking of players taken in the top 15, not 20-31.

All that being said, I am willing to make an exception for three players this year: Wallinder, Zary and Holloway. I don't think this draft has really great depth and I really, really like all three of these guys (especially Zary and Holloway).

 

[Frk It]

The obvious answer is that it depends upon who exactly is on the board. It is a really difficult question to answer in a vacum.

I am typically opposed to moving up as a matter of principal because the expected production of a player taken in the back quarter of the first round is substantially similar to a player taken anywhere in the second or third. As such, the best thing to do is to make as many picks as possible (although you don't really need more than 11 picks in a draft). When people talk about first round picks, they are really thinking of players taken in the top 15, not 20-31.

All that being said, I am willing to make an exception for three players this year: Wallinder, Zary and Holloway. I don't think this draft has really great depth and I really, really like all three of these guys (especially Zary and Holloway).

I am a big, big fan of Zary. What would your thoughts be on moving up for Lapierre? I was a big fan of his prior to him getting hurt.

 

[Oddbob]

Keep. The price to move up into good territory would be too high.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I am a big, big fan of Zary. What would your thoughts be on moving up for Lapierre? I was a big fan of his prior to him getting hurt.

I wouldn't trade up for him and would not use the 32nd pick on him. Outside of that I would consider him if available (although head injuries are scary).

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I dunno how many more times that draft pick value chart needs to be debunked before people stop using it.

Debunked by who? The general consensus is that picks at the top of the draft are worth substantially more than later picks.

I'm aware of studies being done that look into pick value using GAR, Points, TOI, and gp and they all produce similar conclusions about the value of picks. I'd be interested in reading the counter arguments as I haven't seen any.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Debunked by who? The general consensus is that picks at the top of the draft are worth substantially more than later picks.

I'm aware of studies being done that look into pick value using GAR, Points, TOI, and gp and they all produce similar conclusions about the value of picks. I'd be interested in reading the counter arguments as I haven't seen any.

Do you have any idea what it looks like with GAR?

 

[MBH]

Yzerman's history in late round 1 (19th and lower)'
2016- Brett Howden, 27th
2014 - Tony DeAngelo - 19th
2012 - Andrew Vasilvesky, 19th
2011 - Vladislav Namestnikov, 27th

Yzerman's history in round 2.
2017 - Alex Volkov, 48
2016 - Libor Hajek 37, Boris Katchouk, 44, Taylor Raddysh, 58.
2015 - Mitchell Stephes, 32, Matthew Spencer, 44.
2014. Dominik Masin, 35, Jonathan Macleod, 57.
2013 - Adam Erne, 33.
2012 - Dylan Blujus, 40, Brian Hart, 53
2011 - Nikita Kucherov, 58


Kucherov - the lone 2nd round pick of 12 who's proven anything.
Vasi

All for firsts have played in the NHL with Vasilevsky and DeAngelo enjoying the most success thus far.

 

[Frk It]

Yzerman's history in late round 1 (19th and lower)'
2016- Brett Howden, 27th
2014 - Tony DeAngelo - 19th
2012 - Andrew Vasilvesky, 19th
2011 - Vladislav Namestnikov, 27th

Yzerman's history in round 2.
2017 - Alex Volkov, 48
2016 - Libor Hajek 37, Boris Katchouk, 44, Taylor Raddysh, 58.
2015 - Mitchell Stephes, 32, Matthew Spencer, 44.
2014. Dominik Masin, 35, Jonathan Macleod, 57.
2013 - Adam Erne, 33.
2012 - Dylan Blujus, 40, Brian Hart, 53
2011 - Nikita Kucherov, 58


Kucherov - the lone 2nd round pick of 12 who's proven anything.
Vasi

All for firsts have played in the NHL with Vasilevsky and DeAngelo enjoying the most success thus far.

Cirelli, Point, and Gudas in round 3.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I'm not disputing the "debunking" nor dismissing this chart, but do you have any chart(s) that say otherwise? I've seen a few over the years but never saved them. Thanks.

Debunked by who? The general consensus is that picks at the top of the draft are worth substantially more than later picks.

I'm aware of studies being done that look into pick value using GAR, Points, TOI, and gp and they all produce similar conclusions about the value of picks. I'd be interested in reading the counter arguments as I haven't seen any.

FWIW the chart used in this one is closer than previous ones. It doesn't overvalue later picks as badly. But it's still considerably off. This is a post I did 2 years ago on another chart. I'll update it here, shortly.

2017 - Chicago trades pick #26 (297) to Dallas for pick #29 (275) and pick #70. (173) 151 point difference.

Per the chart Dallas should've gotten pick #14.

2016 - NJD trades pick 11 (535) to Ottawa for pick 12 (507) and pick 80. (155) 127 point difference

Per the chart Ottawa should've gotten pick #7.

2016 - Philly trades pick 18 (379) and pick 79 (156) to Winnipeg for pick 22 (324) and pick 36. (217) 6 point difference

This is the only accurate one.

2016 - Washington trades pick 26 (296) to STL for pick 28 (283) and pick 87. (140) 127 point difference

Per the chart STL should've gotten pick #15 or #16.

2015 - Toronto trades pick 24 (308) to Philly for pick 29 (275) and pick 61. (175) 142 point difference

Per the chart Philly should've gotten pick #14.

2015 - Tampa trades pick 28 (283) to NYI for pick 33 (237) and pick 72. (169) 123 point difference

Per the chart NYI should've gotten pick #16.

2015 - Toronto trades pick 29 (275) to Columbus for pick 34 (228) and pick 68. (176) 129 point difference

Per the chart Columbus should've gotten pick #16 or #17.

It's not that it's not perfect... It's that it's not even close. This has been proven multiple times and yet people still use it as if it's at all accurate.

 

[Henkka]

The chart is accurate but generally you habe to overpay when trading up.