Trade up or keep the 3 second rounders?

[ThePuckStopsHere]

What do you hope they will do, and what do you think the cost would be to move up?

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[Henkka]

Trade down to get more picks.

 

[Go Wings]

Well if a player they really like starts falling I would trade Edm and WSHs 2nds to move into the first round.

I keep Detroit 2nd rounder as it will be 32nd overall.

 

[SuperScript29]

If we can trade up to the top-15, sure, if not, forget about it.

 

[Killerjas]

Try to get picks between 20 and 40, the players available are very close to eachother and the first 2 rounds are quite stacked.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I think it always has to be a draft day decision in response to who goes where. The best case scenario is that someone we really like falls into the late teens or twenties and we add the San Jose or Edmonton second to move up from 31 and get them. But if no one particularly intriguing is available, having three seconds is pretty great too.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Trade down to get more picks.

Depending on how the board looks I think this is always the answer. The only exception would be if a player you have falls to that pick, but given where our 2nds will be I find that to be quite unlikely. Short of there being a player with a Brink or Kaliyev esque fall I think we can expect to get more value from trading back.

I think it would be best practice to trade down when possible and there's rarely a case where it makes sense to trade up given the expected values of draft picks. I always like to reference this chart when the debate about trading up/down comes up and I think it explains the value of picks the best. The drop off in expected pick value between #19 and #30 is the same as #31 to #210. That's not to say that #76 > #45, but that the difference between pick 31 -> 210 is the same as 19 -> 30. And that you could then make the argument that those picks after 30 are largely the same value when compared to that of the more valuable 1st round picks

I don't want anyone to think I mean that pick #76 > #45, just that the non 1st round picks have similar values, when compared to earlier picks. It's for that reason the combination of #76+#97 could produce more value than just #45. Everyone intuitively knows that later picks have less value than earlier ones, it's just that drop off in value occurs far sooner than it is expected.

 

[Leadzedder]

So based on that chart...

Do you trade 32 and a late second for 20?

Do you trade 32 and both late seconds for 12?

Or keep 32 and package both late seconds for 22?


Let me recheck that. Option 1 and 3 are too close a result....


Edit. Seems right. (By the chart)

 

[Konnan511]

Trade down to get more picks.

Trade three 2nd rounders for 6 3rd rounds. Trade those for 12 4th rounder. Trade those for 24 5th rounders. Trade those for every 6th and 7th round picks.

 

[Leadzedder]

Trade three 2nd rounders for 6 3rd rounds. Trade those for 12 4th rounder. Trade those for 24 5th rounders. Trade those for every 6th and 7th round picks.

that’s thinking.

 

[Run the Jewels]

The great thing is I'm really confident in our GM and our scouts. If they see a guy they like and they feel like they need to move up to get him, they've got enough picks to make an enticing offer. However it takes two to tango, and while we all wanted a 1st for Athanasiou, no one was willing to give us one. So there's no guarantee we could actually acquire a second first rounder. I simply like the fact Yzerman is committed to getting as many draft picks as possible to get as many at bats as possible to replenish the talent pool. That is our single biggest need and I feel good about his commitment to addressing the lack of talent.

 

[Henkka]

Only player I would trade up would be Askarov, if he falls on the ~20 range.

Center with the Top4 pick and most potential goalie from the same draft would almost end our rebuild.

After that trade up, we could trade down again and get some lost picks back from lower rounds.

But I think Senators has the same plan and they already have higher firsts to take Askarov.

 

[Bench]

Only player I would trade up would be Askarov, if he falls on the ~20 range.

No need to trade up when you draft him in the top 5.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

No need to trade up when you draft him in the top 5.

 

[Frk It]

No need to trade up when you draft him in the top 5.

 

[Retire91]

I kinda like the idea of keeping the picks. I absolutely do not want to trade down. Trading down is insane for a rebuilding team. We don't want to pass the opportunity to pick where we are. I do like the idea of keeping more picks though so we can maybe draft more positions like goalies.

If we can trade up enough spots its good but I doubt anyone puts us in the first round just for two seconds.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

It’s sort of situational. I wouldn’t trade up for the sake of it.

 

[RedWingzz]

So based on that chart...

Do you trade 32 and a late second for 20?

Do you trade 32 and both late seconds for 12?

Or keep 32 and package both late seconds for 22?


Let me recheck that. Option 1 and 3 are too close a result....


Edit. Seems right. (By the chart)

I think I trade 32 and the late 2nds for 12 without hesitation.

 

[cjm502]

I would only trade in to the 1st round if someone Yzerman really likes falls. If that doesn't happen then stay put.

 

[Frk It]

It depends. Not sure this draft is all that deep. After about the top 15 or so, it falls off pretty good. If any of the below guys fall to the end of round 1, I would definitely look at trading up. If not, I am not sure a pick 20-30 is going to bring all that different than a pick 30-50?

1 - Lafreniere
2- Byfield
3 - Drysdale
4- Stutzle
5 - Raymond
6 - Perfetti
7 - Askarov
8 - Lundell
9 - Rossi
10 - Holtz
11 - Zary
12 - Mercer
13 - Holloway
14 - Bourque
15- Wallinder

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I dunno how many more times that draft pick value chart needs to be debunked before people stop using it.

 

[Retire91]

It depends. Not sure this draft is all that deep. After about the top 15 or so, it falls off pretty good. If any of the below guys fall to the end of round 1, I would definitely look at trading up. If not, I am not sure a pick 20-30 is going to bring all that different than a pick 30-50?

1 - Lafreniere
2- Byfield
3 - Drysdale
4- Stutzle
5 - Raymond
6 - Perfetti
7 - Askarov
8 - Lundell
9 - Rossi
10 - Holtz
11 - Zary
12 - Mercer
13 - Holloway
14 - Bourque
15- Wallinder

This is how I fee too after a certain point all the players start to blend into that project category so my opinion I would rather have two rolls of the dice. But if Yzerman feels his man dropped into an available slot pull the trigger for sure.

 

[lilidk]

Trade down to get more picks.

Stay put

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Trade three 2nd rounders for 6 3rd rounds. Trade those for 12 4th rounder. Trade those for 24 5th rounders. Trade those for every 6th and 7th round picks.

I wonder what they’d do if some team for the lols did that. Just to see if they could. Like just a whole round of picks for one team

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Only player I would trade up would be Askarov, if he falls on the ~20 range.

Center with the Top4 pick and most potential goalie from the same draft would almost end our rebuild.

After that trade up, we could trade down again and get some lost picks back from lower rounds.

But I think Senators has the same plan and they already have higher firsts to take Askarov.

Love the optimism. Hate to give you the reality...