Rumor: Trade Thread XVIII: Brace Yourselves. Friday Is Coming.

[NYR Viper]

Cally/Bartlett/Sather

Are also holding up the rest of the team's decisions.

This needs to end.

This is the other reason I want this to end before the Olympic break. They need to figure out what they are doing with the rest of their free agents. If Callahan won't lower his demands move him. Work on Girardi over the break. Show him you mean business and point towards Callahan. They can't let them walk for nothing.

Stralman. Moore. Boyle. Pouliot. What's the plan?

 

[NYR Viper]

Bruce Garrioch ‏@SunGarrioch 2m
Teams are trying to deal. The fact players are paid for 17 days during the Olympics may stand in the way. #NHL

Makes sense

 

[Vitto79]

Makes sense

Yea only deals are likely clise to equal salary ones no cap dumps

 

[NernieBichols]

RB, you don't think the NHL places hedges to protect themselves from these currency swings? For such a large business that deals in multiple currencies I would be absolutely shocked if they didn't have a system in place to manage that risk.

For those who don't understand how this would work, the NHL would sell Canadian currency forward and buy USD on the date that they are set to receive the Canadian dollars. That way they lock themselves in at the current rate (minus forward points), and are completely protected from movement in currency. Pretty much all large businesses that deal in foreign currency operate this way, and I doubt that the NHL would expose themselves to this potential 500m loss (from 5.2B to 4.7B).

Thank you for taking the time to post the mechanicals of this to us. I certainly didn't know or understand it

 

[NYR Viper]

Andrew Gross ‏@AGrossRecord 1m
All Rangers including Callahan on ice for morning skate. They host Oilers tonight.

Nothing must be imminent

 

[Wamsutta]

This is just going to drag on, isn't it.

 

[RangerBoy]

RB, you don't think the NHL places hedges to protect themselves from these currency swings? For such a large business that deals in multiple currencies I would be absolutely shocked if they didn't have a system in place to manage that risk.

For those who don't understand how this would work, the NHL would sell Canadian currency forward and buy USD on the date that they are set to receive the Canadian dollars. That way they lock themselves in at the current rate (minus forward points), and are completely protected from movement in currency. Pretty much all large businesses that deal in foreign currency operate this way, and I doubt that the NHL would expose themselves to this potential 500m loss (from 5.2B to 4.7B).

Then someone should inform the Canadian media which has been reporting 2 NHL cap guys believe the currency drop will result in the upper limit dropping $1M-$1.5M and it will result in a $50M-$60M exchange loss.

 

[AHB*]

Cally is second on the team in ES minutes among forwards. He's 6th in Pk minutes. He's 7th in PP minutes...

True, but he never sees the ice on the PP anymore. Being 6th in PK Minutes.....is pretty telling, considering there are usually 8 guys on the PK that are heavily relied on.

And with all those minutes, this is arguably his most ineffective season since he began his career here.

Regardless, I don't care if he was playing top minutes in every category, he is not worth near 7 million. I'm not happy with us even offering him 6. I'd be OK with 25 over 5 and that's my max.

 

[Mikos87]

RB, you don't think the NHL places hedges to protect themselves from these currency swings? For such a large business that deals in multiple currencies I would be absolutely shocked if they didn't have a system in place to manage that risk.

For those who don't understand how this would work, the NHL would sell Canadian currency forward and buy USD on the date that they are set to receive the Canadian dollars. That way they lock themselves in at the current rate (minus forward points), and are completely protected from movement in currency. Pretty much all large businesses that deal in foreign currency operate this way, and I doubt that the NHL would expose themselves to this potential 500m loss (from 5.2B to 4.7B).

Yes. Any time there is international business, any competent organization will account for the currency exchange.

 

[Punxrocknyc19*]

if the Rangers cant get a deal for Jamie McGinn from the Avs, how about Matt Beleksey from the Ducks???

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Here's what I think Cally is worth, given his style of play, his age, his role, his level of scoring and, yes, his intangibles:

5 yrs x $5.0MM
4 yrs x $5.5MM
3 yrs x $6.0MM

(To me, anything longer doesn't make sense - and I'm sure no player hitting UFA, outside of the very fringe players or the very old ones, would consider anything shorter.)

But you know what? He's worth more dollars and more term to some teams. For example, if I'm the Oilers, I'd overpay to get his leadership there - and know he's locked in and not going to flee somewhere warmer in a year or two. Probably the same for Buffalo, especially given the hometown boy angle.

Furthermore - and this has been my stance since before we knew what his ridiculous contract demands were going to be - even if you were able to get him to sign one of the deals above, he'd still be worth more to the Rangers as a trade chip.

I won't make the mistake of calling him a 3rd line RW, because people get hung up on that. But it's clear that he's the 3rd most important RW on the team behind Nash and MZA. It's also clear that we have more options to replace a RW (some of whom may prove to be very good players in their own right) than nearly any other position on the roster.

Not only is it terrible asset management to let an asset walk for free, it is terrible asset management to have a glut of both talent and cap allocation in one position, especially one of the least important and easiest to fill positions on the roster. Cally needs to be moved both to bring back assets that hopefully can help address other needs and/or backfill the pipeline AND he needs to be moved to help rationalize the cap allocation on this roster. IMO there is almost no scenario where it does not make sense to move him.



(I think there is also incentive to move Girardi for similar reasons - plus the added fact that he seems less suited for AV's style of play than most on the roster. However, I'm less adamant about that one because 1) his demands seem more reasonable, 2) he's a legit first pair RD, even if his skills aren't a perfect for AV and 3) first pair RD is a lot harder position to fill than middle six RW.)

 

[Don Chytil]

Yes. Any time there is international business, any competent organization will account for the currency exchange.

That might be the key word here

But I just seriously doubt the NHL would be dumb enough to drop the ball on this one. Maybe the media guys don't have all the inside financial information?

 

[RGY]

if the Rangers cant get a deal for Jamie McGinn from the Avs, how about Matt Beleksey from the Ducks???

Callahan for Beleksey would be a terrible trade off

 

[Mikos87]

That might be the key word here

But I just seriously doubt the NHL would be dumb enough to drop the ball on this one. Maybe the media guys don't have all the inside financial information?

Bingo. I'm not an accountant but have to use it to run my business. Anytime I've done business internationally, it has always been in $USD, with the currency rate decided on the day and date of the agreement. Some agree on the delivery date. All different modes of operation.

The CDN going down hurts Rogers more than anyone else. I guess a 4c difference in inflation creates for some gaudy headlines when the its extrapolated over a $5.2B CDN deal.

 

[NYR Viper]

The other reason the Rangers are most likely looking at Stewart is because he is a very good net front presence on the PP. That is Callahan's bread and butter.

Stewart is good for 25 goals and 50-55 points. RW. 26 years old. Great net front presence

Callahan is good for 25 goals and 50-55 points. RW. 29 years old. Above average net front presence. Great PKer. Great 2-way forward.

The rest of the Stewart package would need to make up for the added abilities for Callahan.

 

[GAGLine]

RB, you don't think the NHL places hedges to protect themselves from these currency swings? For such a large business that deals in multiple currencies I would be absolutely shocked if they didn't have a system in place to manage that risk.

For those who don't understand how this would work, the NHL would sell Canadian currency forward and buy USD on the date that they are set to receive the Canadian dollars. That way they lock themselves in at the current rate (minus forward points), and are completely protected from movement in currency. Pretty much all large businesses that deal in foreign currency operate this way, and I doubt that the NHL would expose themselves to this potential 500m loss (from 5.2B to 4.7B).

The problem is that the NHL doesn't get that money all up front. It's a 12 year deal. The money will be paid out over that term. They can't exchange money that RBC hasn't given them yet.

 

[GAGLine]

Makes sense

We can easily offset that 17 days by way of retaining salary.

 

[Punxrocknyc19*]

Callahan for Beleksey would be a terrible trade off

Umm did I ever say Callahan for Berkeley? No I didn't. I just thought Beleksey as another option if they can't get McGinn. Same type of player

 

[RangerBoy]

The players are putting 14% of their salaries in escrow. They are guaranteed 50%. Not a penny more. They get paid in US funds. The NHL takes in less revenue because of the exchange rate. Who is giving back $? The players. Why aren't they protected against a falling dollar? Glenn Healy was talking about this topic on the Hotstove last Saturday. A penny drop is worth a lot of money.

 

[RangerBoy]

From: @JSportsnet
Sent: Feb 6, 2014 11:37a

Quick conversation with Callahan's agent. Say he plans on talking to Sather today, with the hopes of finding some "common ground".

sent via web
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/JSportsnet/status/431466801927438336

 

[AWall THE CLAW]

I think with the way the Rangers are playing, there is a compromise to be made and a desire to keep important parts of the team intact. Therefore, a 6yr/$36million deal seems like the logical outcome. Callahan will be 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, and 34 years of age at the start of the seasons covered by that contract. If the Rangers are willing to go 5 yrs, which its seems like there are, then I don't think there is anyway they let such a drastic thing happen to this year's squad over a single year, especially when they are looking like serious contenders.

 

[RangerBoy]

Common ground. 7 years. $47M-$48M. Where is the common ground there? The Rangers are willing to give Callahan 5 years and $30M which is already too rich for him.

 

[RangerBoy]

I think with the way the Rangers are playing, there is a compromise to be made and a desire to keep important parts of the team intact. Therefore, a 6yr/$36million deal seems like the logical outcome. Callahan will be 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, and 34 years of age at the start of the seasons covered by that contract. If the Rangers are willing to go 5 yrs, which its seems like there are, then I don't think there is anyway they let such a drastic thing happen to this year's squad over a single year, especially when they are looking like serious contenders.

Serious contenders?

 

[Don Chytil]

The problem is that the NHL doesn't get that money all up front. It's a 12 year deal. The money will be paid out over that term. They can't exchange money that RBC hasn't given them yet.

This is just even more reason to hedge. You can hedge forward to any date, you just buy or sell the currency now so that you get the opposite currency impact later.

For example, if the NHL sold an equivalent amount of Canadian dollars and bought USD forward at the time of the deal, to settle at different times over the next 12 years, on each of the settlement dates they would receive an equal amount of money to the loss that they're incurring. If the amount of Canadian dollars they're receiving next year has devalued by $5m for example, they made the opposite transaction (buying US dollars for an equivalent amount) at the time of the deal, so they would lose $5m on the deal and gain $5m on the trade they placed. No currency impact.

Source: I work for a company that deals in many currencies, and placing trades like this to minimize currency impact is part of my job.

 

[Trxjw]

The other reason the Rangers are most likely looking at Stewart is because he is a very good net front presence on the PP. That is Callahan's bread and butter.

Stewart is good for 25 goals and 50-55 points. RW. 26 years old. Great net front presence

Callahan is good for 25 goals and 50-55 points. RW. 29 years old. Above average net front presence. Great PKer. Great 2-way forward.

The rest of the Stewart package would need to make up for the added abilities for Callahan.

Not necessarily. When you look at what Callahan brings outside of scoring, some of those things are covered already. We have several PKing forwards already. The "glue" that Callahan brings is what is really hard to replace. You're not going to get a born leader in the deal for him. That will be tough to replace, and you just can't predict how the team will react to it.

When TSN first broke the news about Callahan, McKenzie said the Rangers don't fancy themselves real contenders this year. Has that changed? Was it just a smoke screen to justify leaking the possibility of trading Callahan and/or Girardi? While it's possible that removing Callahan right now could torpedo the season, there's also a chance that Stewart could replace a lot of what Callahan brings on the ice in terms of scoring and physicality. If the team can ride the high of winning games, it might allow them to replace one with the other and keep moving forward towards the playoffs.

Everytime we hear Stewart brought up, it's made clear that he would be part of a package for Callahan. I'm very curious to know just how significant that package could be. It's entirely possible that the Blues view Stewart as more of a salary dump than a key part of the deal.