I love how you completely leave Schultz' play in the AHL out of the equation since that was his best hockey prior to getting burned out. I also love how you compare him to other guys in his draft year when he was a rookie pro last year. Voynov has many years of pro under his best as does Carlson.
I'm not buying this argument. I find that these older players coming out of college are much closer to their peak-level of performance than they are as young teenage pro rookies. I feel age is a bigger factor into their development than what "pro year" they're in.
How much better did a 23-year old Gilbert get from his rookie season? How much better did a 23-year old Petry get from his first full NHL season?
And re: the burn-out - where was Carlson's burn-out in 2010? McDonagh's a year later? Both were leaned on Schultz-style in the AHL in their first pro years and performed even better later on in the season.
Age to me is a bigger factor than "pro year".
I also love how you portray your point as if J. Schultz hurt our PP last year and that he single handily dropped our PP efficiency. I guess the injuries to RNH and Eberle had nothing to do with that right? I mean our PP before RNH was awesome with guys like Gilbert right?
Injuries to RNH/Eberle this year are like injuries to RNH/Hall the year before. The PP still performed. You arguing that I'm suggesting Gilbert is a PP wizard while Schultz is some goat is nonsensical. My point is that core top-unit group of Ebs/RNH/Horc/Gagner/Hall in some combination is an elite-level group of PP forwards. There was production before Schultz came. There was production after Schultz came. He's not why our PP was top-10 last year, nor was Gilbert/Petry the reason it was top-3 the year before. They are interchangeable parts on an otherwise elite unit.
You value ES production yet fail to mention how snake bitten as a team the Oilers were at ES, perhaps good ES teams have lots of ES producers and you don't just crap on a single players ES production vs. his peers because his team as a whole blows at ES.
So you don't think Schultz's inability to get the transition started as an "offensive defenseman" was a contributing factor the Oilers poor ES production?
Obviously this team's inability to score is a confounding factor in all this - but his addition to the team has seemingly done nothing to improve the team's ES production (1.71 ES goals/game this year, 1.70 ES goals/game the year before).
And forget numbers, just watch Justin Schultz try to get the transition started at even strength. It's something he's not able to do with any ease. I'm sure he'll learn it with time. But I don't think it will be at an exponential rate. He simply can't rely upon the college-style "rover" plays where he leads the rush into the opposition zone because he's not an elite-level skating defenseman like Karlsson/Niedermayer/Keith/Letang are/were. You need that level of skating to come back and be the first guy back.
Schultz IMO is cognisant that his elite-level college skating is merely "very good" skating at the NHL level. It's why he's shown a hesitation to lead the rush the way he did in college. It's something Brendan Smith in Detroit is slowly starting to figure out right now as well.
I figured that the 46 and 48 game samples would be the most relevant TBH since Justin didn't play an 82 game NHL schedule. Also because it showed that he hasn't always been a + player and that yes being on a different TEAM can make a player look better. A -11 with Colorado and a +7 with St. Louis is a massive difference.
No, it wouldn't. Shattenkirk got steadily better in his rookie season. Schultz's production got steadily worse. The most objective thing to do is use what you have - the entire season - as a comparison.
STL finished 10th last in the league that year. EDM finished 7th last. A +7 on a 10th last team is much better than a -17 on a 7th last team. And he was playing top-4 minutes throughout that season.
You calling burnout "garbage" shows me how when you have a dislike for a player that you will pull out every imaginable stop to try and paint them as crap when it is far from the truth. Shattenkirk was broken in slowly and had 0 points in 10 AHL games that year, I HIGHLY doubt that he was played for 30ish minutes a night in all situations like Schultz was in OKC PRIOR to an abbreviated NHL season.
Where were Carlson and McDonagh's burn-outs in 2010 and 2011 respectively after being thrust into the same role in the AHL early in their pro careers?
Since you love Shattenkirk so much, I propose you an avatar bet that Schultz outscores Shattenkirk next season.
I'll certainly take that deal for ES production. Not the >3min of PP time Schultz gets on a #1 unit that produced just as well with him that they did without him.
Again, like I said earlier, I value ES play over PP production.
For example, a player that puts up 35 points with a 25:10 ES: PP ratio playing secondary PP time is more valuable to me than a 40-pt scorer with a 10:30 ES: PP ratio on an elite top unit on which he has seemingly done nothing to improve their production.
Saying that Faulk > J. Schultz is as laughable as saying that Seguin > Hall and that Hall has 3rd liner skills. Speaking of Seguin, when is he going to start playing in the playoffs? Speaking of teams making a difference for players, imagine if he was this much of a no show for the Oilers? It wouldn't be pretty, surely even you with your laundry list of biases can now see that we made the right choice by taking Hall?
I'm more excited about the performance of a 20-year old Faulk, given his developmental potential than a 22-year old Justin Schultz. Yes, I'll maintain that. To me they're of equivalent value at this point.
I honestly don't know how other fans around the league perceive it, and I'd be interested in seeing how a Main Board Poll rates it.