Speculation: Trade Ideas and Free Agency XXVI

[Lapa]

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[Wabit]

From last thread.

I was pessimistic before last season, thinking we'd barely scrape into the playoffs, then lose in the first round.... Then, lo and behold, Staal played like it was 2009, Koivu continued to play well, Doobs was talked about for the Vezina, and the young guys, Granlund, Nino, Zucker, Coyle, Brodin, Dumba....all had their best seasons, and by a long shot.


Then we lost in the first round. Same old, same old.

It's like the season was a mirage.

I really don't know what direction to go in from here. I'm guessing that Fletcher will more or less sit tight, hope that the good seasons from last year will continue, and work some new blood such as Ek, Olofsson, and Tuch into the lineup.

We really need an inspirational leader in the playoffs. I like Koivu, but he has proven multiple times it's not him. Suter has a perceived selfishness to his game and demeanor that eliminates him from being a leader. Granlund has shown flashes at times, but I just don't think he's good enough. Coyle? Mr. Inconsistency? Dubnyk....Mr. Day Late and a Dollar Short.
Parise should be the guy, but I think he is aging out, and has lost that physical edge that made him a top player. Sad for us. Not good for our cap.

we've come full circle to a FAmiliar place. Next year, I can easily see Poms, Koivu, Staal, Dubnyk, and Suter being worse. Probably one of the young guys too. One of Dumba/Scandella/ Brodin gone. Maybe Haula, too? Tuch, Ek, and Olofsson will have to contribute just for us to break even. Wild cards are Reilly, Kunin...maybe a yet to be named backup goalie?

Yuck, yuck, yuck. We are in moderately good limbo.

Mirrors most of my feelings. I'd add in the annual team forgetting how to play hockey for a month+ every season. The coaching staff isn't the problem for that.

The future of the center position still worries me. I do think Haula is an important player to get resigned.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I think the team might need new leadership. We are basically a poor man's Sharks or Caps.

I think a larger part of why superstars matter is that their confidence is transfered to the rest of the team. They either win or they have zero carry over of losses.

And this win-today mentality is consistent.

Wild just always appear on fire or on the verge of collapse as emotions of the team run hot and cold.

And I actually think Suter is a lot to blame for this. Amazing player but he seems like he always has a problem with something. Which matters a lot when he is on the ice for 50 percent of games. And then he demands more minutes and shots as the games get close, and you can almost see entire team clench down, rather than bringing a malestorm down on the other team.

Koivu and Parise could also be adding to this problem, but I do not visually see that on the ice as much when the games are tight.

It is just like the team stops having fun when they are losing. And I do not get that sense from the teams that make the finals. They just kind of lay it out there and let the chips fall.

 

[Wild11MN]

I think the team might need new leadership. We are basically a poor man's Sharks or Caps.

I think a larger part of why superstars matter is that their confidence is transfered to the rest of the team. They either win or they have zero carry over of losses.

And this win-today mentality is consistent.

Wild just always appear on fire or on the verge of collapse as emotions of the team run hot and cold.

And I actually think Suter is a lot to blame for this. Amazing player but he seems like he always has a problem with something. Which matters a lot when he is on the ice for 50 percent of games. And then he demands more minutes and shots as the games get close, and you can almost see entire team clench down, rather than bringing a malestorm down on the other team.

Koivu and Parise could also be adding to this problem, but I do not visually see that on the ice as much when the games are tight.

It is just like the team stops having fun when they are losing. And I do not get that sense from the teams that make the finals. They just kind of lay it out there and let the chips fall.

I think a lot of what you said is a completely valid opinion, but the bolded is just straight up unproven, and you state it as if it's a fact. Of course he plays more when games get close, he's our best defenseman. You think three coaches have all given in to Suter's apparent demands for minutes if it hurts the team? You don't think other teams play their best defensemen more minutes in close games?

I just hate this narrative when it's never been substantiated. I don't even think Russo has said something like this on the podcast where he gets a little gossipy. Suter playing more minutes =/= Suter demanding more minutes.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, Scott Stevens definitely strikes me as a weak willed pushover.

 

[Wabit]

I think a lot of what you said is a completely valid opinion, but the bolded is just straight up unproven, and you state it as if it's a fact. Of course he plays more when games get close, he's our best defenseman. You think three coaches have all given in to Suter's apparent demands for minutes if it hurts the team? You don't think other teams play their best defensemen more minutes in close games?

I just hate this narrative when it's never been substantiated. I don't even think Russo has said something like this on the podcast where he gets a little gossipy. Suter playing more minutes =/= Suter demanding more minutes.

I agree. Suter must run roughshod over every Wild coach (Yeo, BB, Stevens), and all the international team USA coaches he's played under.

It could just be that he is the best d-man on the team by so far a margin that he deserves the ToI he gets.

 

[Minnesnota]

I agree. Suter must run roughshod over every Wild coach (Yeo, BB, Stevens), and all the international team USA coaches he's played under.

It could just be that he is the best d-man on the team by so far a margin that he deserves the ToI he gets.

He's not though. When will people stop perpetuating this false narrative that he's our best defenseman? He gets huge minutes but performs like a 2nd pairing defenseman.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He's not though. When will people stop perpetuating this false narrative that he's our best defenseman? He gets huge minutes but performs like a 2nd pairing defenseman.

Nope.

 

[Wabit]

He's not though. When will people stop perpetuating this false narrative that he's our best defenseman? He gets huge minutes but performs like a 2nd pairing defenseman.

I (might) undervalue Spurgeon on here. But that blows my statements out of the water.

 

[Wild11MN]

He's not though. When will people stop perpetuating this false narrative that he's our best defenseman? He gets huge minutes but performs like a 2nd pairing defenseman.

According to what? Advanced stats that say Prosser is our second best defender (as in defensively, not offensively) on the team?

Now... I wouldn't find it outrageous to put Spurgeon near Suter's level. But second-pairing defenseman... not even close.

 

[Nharris31]

From last thread.


Mirrors most of my feelings. I'd add in the annual team forgetting how to play hockey for a month+ every season. The coaching staff isn't the problem for that.

The future of the center position still worries me. I do think Haula is an important player to get resigned.

I would like to see this team with actually quality goaltending before suggesting they take months plus off. I'm pretty sure all evidence points back to this.

 

[Minnesnota]

According to what? Advanced stats that say Prosser is our second best defender (as in defensively, not offensively) on the team?

Now... I wouldn't find it outrageous to put Spurgeon near Suter's level. But second-pairing defenseman... not even close.

Here is Ryan Suter's HERO Chart comparing him to the league average 2nd pairing defenseman:

Here is Jared Spurgeon compared to a #1 defenseman:

Finally, here are Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon compared side to side:

In almost every measurable relevant 5v5 statistic Ryan Suter is not our best defenseman.

4th in Points/60
5th in FirstA/60
2nd in GF%
2nd in GF%RelTM
3rd in SF%
3rd in SF%RelTM
2nd in CF%
3rd in CF%RelTM
1st in TOI

Yet he gets more ice time than Jared Spurgeon, who is our ACTUAL best defenseman.

Here is where Spurgeon ranks in each of those same categories:

1st in Points/60
1st in FirstA/60
1st in GF%
1st in GF%RelTM
1st in SF%
1st in SF%RelTM
1st in CF%
1st in CF%RelTM
2nd in TOI

But, please, tell me more about how Ryan Suter is our best defenseman when even the facts don't agree.

Edit: Before someone here tries to refute these facts because I'm using 5v5 only:

1. Special teams samples are relatively small (and therefore not very predictive of future results)
2. Special team stats are heavily influenced by systems/coaching
3. They are difficult to consolidate with even strength stats due to selection bias

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Spurgeon has been getting more and more respect lately, to the point where you can have legitimate debates about who is better. I'd actually put myself on the Spurgeon side of the debate.

Most, if not all, are scoffing at your "2nd pairing" claim, no matter what the HERO charts say.

 

[Wild11MN]

The only thing the HERO chart has for anything defensively is shot suppression. Those charts are all about offense. Suter has average offensive stats as a defensive defenseman. Who cares?

Does the eye test tell you Suter is a second pairing defenseman? If it does, there's no use arguing, because no one will change your mind. The eye test tells me Suter is a rock-solid first-pairing defenseman. And so is Spurgeon.

 

[BigT2002]

Spurgeon has been getting more and more respect lately, to the point where you can have legitimate debates about who is better. I'd actually put myself on the Spurgeon side of the debate.

Most, if not all, are scoffing at your "2nd pairing" claim, no matter what the HERO charts say.

Hard for me to do that considering there is a reason they compliment one another so well. One is probably one of the best defensive defensemen in the league right now (and several others have said this on their Players Tribune articles) and the other is easily the best offensive blue line Dman we have on the team. I give Spurgeon credit where credit is due: he is a warrior for his frame.

But lets not forget this team was horrible on the Blue line/Defensive Zone until they signed Suter. The issue is he insists on being on a 1PP line and sorry Ryan you are not an offensive Dman. There is reason you and Weber were considered a potent force and put into the same "Best Pairings in the league" threads with the likes of Seabrook-Keith or McD-Staal.

 

[Wabit]

I would like to see this team with actually quality goaltending before suggesting they take months plus off. I'm pretty sure all evidence points back to this.

The goalies have carried the team plenty over the last few years with Harding and Dub. Kemps/Backstrom were a disaster experiment.

The goalies are a part of the team, if they are having a rough time of it the rest of the team needs to step up, not all start slumping too. Sp what if the games turn into 6-5 15-16 Stars fests. They had the team offense to pull those kinds of games off. Or maybe invest in a decent backup that can step in when things go bad.

The final 17 games, 6-8-2 record (March to season end) Dub played he had a .895 sv%. 8 of those 17 games he allowed 2 of fewer goals for a 4-4 record, and one more game he lost in OT by giving up the 3rd goal. So 5 of his final 17 games the team couldn't even score more than 2 goals in regulation time. The Wild were at a ~3.5 goal per game before March 1st.

Dub had some bad games, not argument there, but he only allowed more than 3 goals 3 times. The rest of the team wasn't firing on all cylinders during the same time frame.

 

[Wabit]

Hero charts are one step above useless. Pommer (tied with Zucker) is better than Coyle and Granlund according to them, and Tyson Barrie is a huge upgrade over Spurgeon.

 

[Nharris31]

The goalies have carried the team plenty over the last few years with Harding and Dub. Kemps/Backstrom were a disaster experiment.

The goalies are a part of the team, if they are having a rough time of it the rest of the team needs to step up, not all start slumping too. Sp what if the games turn into 6-5 15-16 Stars fests. They had the team offense to pull those kinds of games off. Or maybe invest in a decent backup that can step in when things go bad.

The final 17 games, 6-8-2 record (March to season end) Dub played he had a .895 sv%. 8 of those 17 games he allowed 2 of fewer goals for a 4-4 record, and one more game he lost in OT by giving up the 3rd goal. So 5 of his final 17 games the team couldn't even score more than 2 goals in regulation time. The Wild were at a ~3.5 goal per game before March 1st.

Dub had some bad games, not argument there, but he only allowed more than 3 goals 3 times. The rest of the team wasn't firing on all cylinders during the same time frame.

You could go through all 30 teams and find a week or month wear the team doesn't score or they get terrible goaltending. You may not like it or like this but a lot of hockey has to do with luck. You can only out score your opponent for so long before it unsustainable.

 

[Wabit]

I would like to see this team with actually quality goaltending before suggesting they take months plus off. I'm pretty sure all evidence points back to this.

You could go through all 30 teams and find a week or month wear the team doesn't score or they get terrible goaltending. You may not like it or like this but a lot of hockey has to do with luck. You can only out score your opponent for so long before it unsustainable.

So which one is it? The Wild have done this for extended periods multiple years in a row. Puck luck, hot goalies, injuries, etc do happen; but game in and game out for a month + for the last 4? years?

Maybe this team isn't really that good unless they have a great goalie behind them? Maybe Dub/Harding has been covering up sever problems with the team? That's how I see the flip side of the coin.

Look at MTL, without Price being otherworldly they aren't a good team.

 

[wildkess]

Proposal:
Haula and Scandella to Yotes for 2nd and DeAngelo

 

[Wabit]

Proposal:
Haula and Scandella to Yotes for 2nd and DeAngelo

Guessing you'd expose Dumba in the expansion draft then?

Suter/Spurgeon
Brodin/Folin
Olofsson/DeAngelo

I'm not really interested in getting even smaller on defense.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I think a lot of what you said is a completely valid opinion, but the bolded is just straight up unproven, and you state it as if it's a fact. Of course he plays more when games get close, he's our best defenseman. You think three coaches have all given in to Suter's apparent demands for minutes if it hurts the team? You don't think other teams play their best defensemen more minutes in close games?

I just hate this narrative when it's never been substantiated. I don't even think Russo has said something like this on the podcast where he gets a little gossipy. Suter playing more minutes =/= Suter demanding more minutes.

I didnt say that he was walking into coaches offices saying "play me more."

He is just doing what every star player does in high school. He just takes longer and longer shifts as the games goes on because he knows the coach isnt going to not play him every other shift or not against the other top players. He has leverage and he uses it.

And there is an old school hockey mentality that many coaches have where this kind of thing is thought to be the sign of a good competitor.

However, pick nearly any sports, and it is established that kind of approach doesnt lead to better performance by the individual or team.

 

[Nharris31]

So which one is it? The Wild have done this for extended periods multiple years in a row. Puck luck, hot goalies, injuries, etc do happen; but game in and game out for a month + for the last 4? years?

Maybe this team isn't really that good unless they have a great goalie behind them? Maybe Dub/Harding has been covering up sever problems with the team? That's how I see the flip side of the coin.

Look at MTL, without Price being otherworldly they aren't a good team.

No teams is going to be good if they don't have at solid goaltending from both of their netminders.

 

[Wild11MN]

I didnt say that he was walking into coaches offices saying "play me more."

He is just doing what every star player does in high school. He just takes longer and longer shifts as the games goes on because he knows the coach isnt going to not play him every other shift or not against the other top players. He has leverage and he uses it.

And there is an old school hockey mentality that many coaches have where this kind of thing is thought to be the sign of a good competitor.

However, pick nearly any sports, and it is established that kind of approach doesnt lead to better performance by the individual or team.

Sure, it's just when you say that he "demanded" it, it sounds like you're saying he did what you described in the first sentence. That's what I was getting at.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I didnt say that he was walking into coaches offices saying "play me more."

He is just doing what every star player does in high school. He just takes longer and longer shifts as the games goes on because he knows the coach isnt going to not play him every other shift or not against the other top players. He has leverage and he uses it.

And there is an old school hockey mentality that many coaches have where this kind of thing is thought to be the sign of a good competitor.

However, pick nearly any sports, and it is established that kind of approach doesnt lead to better performance by the individual or team.

Is there any sort of shift analysis that supports this? Any place where you can clearly see the average length of his 1st period shifts vs. 3rd period shifts?