Trade Deadline Prediction

BringBuffaloStanley

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Nov 16, 2014
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Several nights a week, as I rest my head on my pillow-- there are mock drafts, trades, and future line combinations spiraling around in my brain. Most guys probably think about sheep, plans for the week, or girls or something-well not me, not this season at least. The tank can be debilitating.


Here's my trade deadline deals from last night:

-In a stunning deal, the Buffalo Sabres trade forwards Chris Stewart and Mikhael Grigorenko to the Washington Capitals, for a 2015 first round pick. Media analysts declare Murray on paper as the loser in this deal. Murray doesn't care. He does not see Grigorenko as part of the future anymore. He feels the young Russian's lack of speed and foot work to be a major red flag. Murray doesn't see a future for Grigorenko in Buffalo's top 3 C's. Those are reserved for McEichel, Reinhart, and Girgensons.

Murray is also not sold on the idea of Grigorenko as a top 6 winger. He is far more impressed with the progression of Joel Armia and does not care for Grigorenko's questionable grit to retrieve loose pucks and board battle.

Adding Stewart provides the Caps with immediate grit and top 9 scoring for their playoff push. The combo deal gets Buffalo another first rounder, as Stewart alone only commands a 2nd rounder and the Capitals desire for immediate top 9 help, plus another promising Russian to possibly pair with Alexander Ovechkin one day.

-THE BUFFALO SABRES TRADE GOALTENDER JHONAS ENROTH TO THE PHILADELPHIA FLYERS IN EXCHANGE FOR A 2015 SECOND ROUND DRAFT PICK.

Philadelphia GM Ron Hextall has high hopes for the Swedish netminder. Philly hopes to recreate the magic the team received when they took a chance on Martin Biron several years back. Shipping out a second rounder for an unrestricted goaltender is fine with Hextall-- because he made a series of other transactions at the deadline in exchange for picks.

-THE BUFFALO SABRES TRADE GOALTENDER MICHAEL NEURVIRTH IN EXCHANGE FOR THE ANAHEIM DUCKS 2015 3rd ROUND DRAFT PICK.

The Ducks have had countless injuries to their goaltending this year. The addition of Michael provides them further stability in goal for their playoff push, and allows them to waive Bryzgalov to their AHL affilliate. Sabres GM Tim Murray receives backlash in the press for allegedly blatantly tanking. The Sabres issue a press release, stating they had no choice but to trade both goaltenders as they were both unrestricted, and they were unable to reach extensions. "We can't let assetts walk out of the door for nothing" says Murray.

-The Buffalo Sabres trade center Torrey Mitchell to the New York Rangers for a 2015 third round draft pick. This deal really could involve several buyers at the trade deadline, just a hunch it's NY. Sabres GM Tim Murray has every intention to dial Mitchell on July 1, 2015 to sign the forward to a 2 year contract, as his 4C, moving McCormick to the wing on the fourth line.

-THE BUFFALO SABRES TRADE FORWARD DREW STAFFORD TO THE WINNIPEG JETS IN EXCHANGE FOR THE JETS 2015 SECOND ROUND PICK. Winnipeg is unwilling to depart with a first rounder for some of the higher end UFA'S.

Murray refrains from trading Hodgson, due to his desire to keep his cap hit for floor purposes this year. Hodgson will be dangled at the draft.

Murray also refrains from trading Marcus Foligno. Murray deems the inconsistent forward to be an underachiever and had the opportunity to trade him to Calgary for a second round pick. However, Murray thinks Foligno will have higher value for trade up purposes on draft day.

2015 Draft Picks: 10 picks total in the first 90 selections of draft...Bumping a couple of those firsts into the teens will be a breeze, as Sabres GM Tim Murray has a plethora of second round draft picks at his disposal.

BUF-1ST
NYI-1ST
STL-1ST
WAS-1ST

BUF-2ND
NYI-2ND
PHI-2ND
WPG-2ND

(Foligno-in reality weighted as worth another 2nd on draft day for trade up purposes)


ANA-3RD
NYR-3RD




There you go. Comments, thoughts , and counter proposals would be fun to read. Also, hold off on what about the cap floor responses. I did the math way back, there is not much salary needed to come back when taking into account call ups. I think its like roughly 4 or 5 million needed. Murray will get some dead weight somewhere to make this work. Ratislav Klesla type garbage, etc....
 

Bps21*

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That first trade is the most brutal goddamned thing I've read outside of a mortgage broker post
 

TehDoak

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A few thoughts:

Murray has very little invested in Grigerenko. However, he's the exact kind of player that he'd want back in a trade, high talent player a few years into their development.

I don't see him moving him unless its for a more proven NHLer, not for another pick.

Also remember with the pending deals of Stafford/Stewart, they'll likely be a NHL roster spot for him to get an extended NHL look.

I don't see a ton of interest in either Enroth of Nieverith at this point. Certainly not enough to warrant a 2nd round pick from a Bubble team.

Pending UFA Biron/Halak got 2nd rounders, and they were alot more proven than Enroth.

I think one goalie gets moved (not for much, a 3rd tops).

Stafford and Stewart both have similar value. I think Stewart will get a bit more simply because teams will value his physical side and think if they put him i n a good situation, he'll play better.

Stafford, at this point, will return at best a 2nd. I'm guessing we'll see something like a prospect that Murray likes, maybe a d-man.

I also think they'll be greater demand for Torrey Mitchell, simply because he's proven he can take a regular shift and be responsible defensively. He'd be a good 4th line center for a team looking to flesh out their bottom 6.
 

FearTheBeard

Registered User
Mar 27, 2011
3,944
0
Several nights a week, as I rest my head on my pillow-- there are mock drafts, trades, and future line combinations spiraling around in my brain. Most guys probably think about sheep, plans for the week, or girls or something-well not me, not this season at least. The tank can be debilitating.


Here's my trade deadline deals from last night:

-In a stunning deal, the Buffalo Sabres trade forwards Chris Stewart and Mikhael Grigorenko to the Washington Capitals, for a 2015 first round pick. Media analysts declare Murray on paper as the loser in this deal. Murray doesn't care. He does not see Grigorenko as part of the future anymore. He feels the young Russian's lack of speed and foot work to be a major red flag. Murray doesn't see a future for Grigorenko in Buffalo's top 3 C's. Those are reserved for McEichel, Reinhart, and Girgensons.

Murray is also not sold on the idea of Grigorenko as a top 6 winger. He is far more impressed with the progression of Joel Armia and does not care for Grigorenko's questionable grit to retrieve loose pucks and board battle.

Adding Stewart provides the Caps with immediate grit and top 9 scoring for their playoff push. The combo deal gets Buffalo another first rounder, as Stewart alone only commands a 2nd rounder and the Capitals desire for immediate top 9 help, plus another promising Russian to possibly pair with Alexander Ovechkin one day.

-THE BUFFALO SABRES TRADE GOALTENDER JHONAS ENROTH TO THE PHILADELPHIA FLYERS IN EXCHANGE FOR A 2015 SECOND ROUND DRAFT PICK.

Philadelphia GM Ron Hextall has high hopes for the Swedish netminder. Philly hopes to recreate the magic the team received when they took a chance on Martin Biron several years back. Shipping out a second rounder for an unrestricted goaltender is fine with Hextall-- because he made a series of other transactions at the deadline in exchange for picks.

-THE BUFFALO SABRES TRADE GOALTENDER MICHAEL NEURVIRTH IN EXCHANGE FOR THE ANAHEIM DUCKS 2015 3rd ROUND DRAFT PICK.

The Ducks have had countless injuries to their goaltending this year. The addition of Michael provides them further stability in goal for their playoff push, and allows them to waive Bryzgalov to their AHL affilliate. Sabres GM Tim Murray receives backlash in the press for allegedly blatantly tanking. The Sabres issue a press release, stating they had no choice but to trade both goaltenders as they were both unrestricted, and they were unable to reach extensions. "We can't let assetts walk out of the door for nothing" says Murray.

-The Buffalo Sabres trade center Torrey Mitchell to the New York Rangers for a 2015 third round draft pick. This deal really could involve several buyers at the trade deadline, just a hunch it's NY. Sabres GM Tim Murray has every intention to dial Mitchell on July 1, 2015 to sign the forward to a 2 year contract, as his 4C, moving McCormick to the wing on the fourth line.

-THE BUFFALO SABRES TRADE FORWARD DREW STAFFORD TO THE WINNIPEG JETS IN EXCHANGE FOR THE JETS 2015 SECOND ROUND PICK. Winnipeg is unwilling to depart with a first rounder for some of the higher end UFA'S.

Murray refrains from trading Hodgson, due to his desire to keep his cap hit for floor purposes this year. Hodgson will be dangled at the draft.

Murray also refrains from trading Marcus Foligno. Murray deems the inconsistent forward to be an underachiever and had the opportunity to trade him to Calgary for a second round pick. However, Murray thinks Foligno will have higher value for trade up purposes on draft day.

Murray feels that way, or you do?
Im not ready to give up on Grigs yet. He's too talented and shown a lot of progression in the AHL. Im all for moving players who are impending UFA's, in order to get at least something from them, but Im not ready to give up top prospects for picks at this stage of the rebuild. Additionally, I think the days of trying to accumulate as many draft picks as possible are coming to an end. We can only have 50 players under contract, and I don't want to get into a situation where we are forced to package our picks, and potentially overpay, in order to move up in the draft.
 

Skinnyjimmy08

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Mar 30, 2012
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People need to forget the fact that Buffalo attempted to rush Grigs a couple times out of Junior. If he would have played full QMJHL seasons as a 18 year old and 19 year old(maybe won league scoring title, maybe CHL player of year etc etc) and AHL now as a 20 year old and having a good year, he would b considered a top prospect in the world. He is a huge talent and people gotta remember hes only 20
 

Zip15

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Jun 3, 2009
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Don't see him moving Grigorenko in such a deal. If Murray does trade him, I think it'll be at/before the draft in a package for a big game (e.g., O'Reilly). I also don't see much of a market for Enroth/Neuvy. Wouldn't be surprised to see Murray attach one of the goaltenders to another impending UFA to get a little better of a return, knowing that they don't have much value standing on their own. I think Enroth will be the one traded. IMO, he's ready to move on from this organization.
 

UnleashRasmus

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Apr 15, 2012
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If all of this were to happen, I hope Murray is calling Ottawa and giving up enough to lure in Robin Lehner who would be a better fit for the roster than either Neuvirth and Enroth. Again, this is based on both Neuvirth/Enroth going above.
 

HOOats

NO DOOM NO GLOOM
Nov 19, 2007
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People need to forget the fact that Buffalo attempted to rush Grigs a couple times out of Junior. If he would have played full QMJHL seasons as a 18 year old and 19 year old(maybe won league scoring title, maybe CHL player of year etc etc) and AHL now as a 20 year old and having a good year, he would b considered a top prospect in the world. He is a huge talent and people gotta remember hes only 20

Amen
 

Eram

Registered User
Jul 21, 2013
454
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San Francisco, CA
Agreed, totally OK with keeping Grigo for a while. I see him like a lotto ticket with holding on to for 2 years. By then he'll either show he can be a productive NHLer or be a textbook example of a "player needing a change of scenery" where we can still get 70-80% of his current value back in a trade. Is it really worth giving up a potential top 6 scoring forward for at best a 1st round pick instead of a 2nd/3rd?
 

Moskau

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Jun 30, 2004
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A team that will likely pick top 5 this season is going acquire Enroth at the trade deadline for funsies?
 

Nibbler

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May 24, 2011
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I am thinking the Sabres will be very active this deadline, selling off a lot of players in anticipation of an overhaul.

Will be traded:
Enroth - For picks, probably a 2nd rounder
Hodgson - Cap dump, late round draft pick
Meszaros - IMO, he was acquired for this reason, free draft pick at the deadline
Strachan - Proved he can be a steady NHL dman but not needed here, another free draft pick
Stewart - To a playoff bound team for a mid range prospect or 2nd-3rd round pick
Weber - To a playoff bound team for a mid range prospect or 2nd-3rd round pick

Might be traded:
Ennis - Only if the return is very good (mid to late 1st round pick or a prospect that is close to ready)
Foligno - Might be intriguing to another team (Blue Jackets)
Mitchell - The Sabres will need vets next season, Mitchell might be a good guy to keep around
Stafford - The return will probably not be good for him, so chances are he stays

Not worth trading:
Benoit
Deslauriers
Flynn
Kaleta
McCormick

Will not be traded:
Gionta
Girgensons
Gorges
Moulson
Myers
Neuvirth
Ristolainen
Zadorov
 

Jacob582

Registered User
Oct 16, 2012
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So you trade 5 players from the NHL roster and take no players in return? Does Rochester have enough replacement players? Don't wait until the deadline to make all those trades since you are not allowed to put your roster under the minimum (20) through trade.

--------
I think trade values will be more depressed than last year. Lots of sellers this year.
 

Sabre the Win

Joke of a Franchise
Jun 27, 2013
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Grigorenko could very well end up as our 3rd line center, he has the size and if he does translate to a 50 point 3rd line center, we would be so incredibly deep at center, teams would model their rebuilds around us. Girgensons I see playing wing in the top 6, I would hate to see him relegated to a 3rd line center role because I believe he is better than that and due to numbers with McEichel and Reinhart there is no room for him to center the top 6.

Also there is no reason to get rid of Hodgson. He doesn't have much trade value with his production to that contract and we still need to reach the cap floor next year so taking too much off will only hinder us and bring in more Meszaro's type deals and we need to turn it around next year, not tank some more.

As for deadline, one of our goalies goes in a package deal, say if we are getting Lehnor + Mark Stone + 2016 2nd for Enroth/Neuvirth + Chris Stewert + Strachan/Meszaros. As for us selling a goalie at deadline, only a team with a playoff birth and massive injuries in goal desperately needing an NHL starter to help in the playoffs will take a goalie. Everyone else will keep what they have to bottom out lower in the standings. The market isn't hot for B level goalies and at this point that team buying a goalie to help stop gap injuries won't give anything more than a 2015 second or if we're lucky a 2016 first.
 

Takeo

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Jul 9, 2003
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The Sabres don't need anymore draft picks. If anything, they should try to consolidate and improve the ones they already have. It seems that Sabres fans are more interested in quantity than quality when it comes to prospects. It speaks to Harrington's "banking on futures" model. As long as there are piles of picks and prospects then everything is good. Nevermind that few of these guys are showing any real development.
 

Jame

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Sep 4, 2002
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The Sabres don't need anymore draft picks. If anything, they should try to consolidate and improve the ones they already have. It seems that Sabres fans are more interested in quantity than quality when it comes to prospects. It speaks to Harrington's "banking on futures" model. As long as there are piles of picks and prospects then everything is good. Nevermind that few of these guys are showing any real development.

please tell us more
 

CaseyMitts37

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Mar 2, 2013
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Buffalo
The Sabres don't need anymore draft picks. If anything, they should try to consolidate and improve the ones they already have. It seems that Sabres fans are more interested in quantity than quality when it comes to prospects. It speaks to Harrington's "banking on futures" model. As long as there are piles of picks and prospects then everything is good. Nevermind that few of these guys are showing any real development.

Why are you a Sabres fan?
 

sabrebuild

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Apr 21, 2014
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I'm not sure if he has ever responded to anyone. He just comes by and drops off these nuggets of wisdom for us all to ponder.
 

Montag DP

Sabres fan in...
Apr 4, 2007
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That aside, he has a point. At some point we will have to flip prospects/picks for players. You're not going to win the Cup with a whole team of 20-year-olds.
 

Gabrielor

"Win with us or watch us win." - Rasmus Dahlin
Jun 28, 2011
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The Sabres don't need anymore draft picks. If anything, they should try to consolidate and improve the ones they already have. It seems that Sabres fans are more interested in quantity than quality when it comes to prospects. It speaks to Harrington's "banking on futures" model. As long as there are piles of picks and prospects then everything is good. Nevermind that few of these guys are showing any real development.

It's a sad day when one's argument relies on the "wisdom" of Mike Harrington.
 

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