GDT: Trade Deadline Day Discussion III

[Rants Mulliniks]

There is a difference between movable and value of return. As long as you understand that. Taking 7 million/6 years or 8 million/7 years is a financial commitment especially of you think the product has depreciated or will continue to.
There are warts with these players that cause concern. Getting rid of the contracts may be half the return.

The warts are miniscule. On open market, he gets that contract with ease. Some won't want it, some will. Eating dollars AND not getting decent return would be absolutely stupid, much like giving Clarkson 1st line dollars AND franchise player term was. You take one or the other, you don't swallow both pills.

 

[New Liskeard]

I'm still pissed that Nathan Horton's contract limits our ability to make moves during the off-season (when we find ourselves pressed up against the cap again one day). But David Clarkson's contract offers the same problem. You just can't win. Nonis screwed up. And he tried his best to correct his error. At least we can bury Nathan Horton's cap hit during the season in LTIR. Yeah we're allowed to spend 10% above the cap during the off-season. But Horton's $5.3 million eats up 7.7% of that 10% leeway that we have.

Because the Leafs should be spending to the cap and sign UFAs as soon as possible while rebuilding.

 

[seanlinden]

If indeed the Leafs are going to go through a real rebuild then they did right by holding onto their assets for fair value. In the end when you see what Vermette was worth or players like Cobburn and Yandle received in return. Its easy to be a Leaf fan and understand that if Phaneuf and Bozak can garner the same returns as those players it would be wise to keep them until the time is right.

But what if we win the McDavid sweepstakes?? Is a full rebuild needed?

I think not. You trade Phaneuf and Bozak. But keep Kessel and Lupul, thoughts???

Winning the lottery shouldn't really change our plans all that much... especially if the Leafs realize that Toronto isn't an environment conducive to McDavid's development, and move down to pick up a bunch of other assets.

At the end of the day, the Leafs are likely to have Strome (or McDavid), Nylander, and Percy on the roster next year. All 3 players will need to be highly insulated. At centre, you'd be looking for an immediate upgrade so that you can ice something better than Kadri/Bozak/Holland. At wing, you'd be looking for an immediate upgrade so that you can ice something better than Kessel/JvR/Lupul/Komarov (or at least, healthier), and on D, you're looking for an immediate upgrade so that the top 4 is better than Rielly/Phaneuf/Gardiner/Polak.

 

[SeenSchenn2]

and a true indication that this is a fresh start

so far everything they are saying and the moves they have made do suggest this but until a core guy is moved this is alwasy the leafs and the temptation of winning now

For sure, but it's so rare a big contract is moved in season. I know it happens a lot, and if anything I would have guessed Bozak moved yesterday.

Off-season makes more sense for a few reasons:
1. Teams who miss out on UFAs (if there are any)
2. Teams planning for the cap. They have no idea how it's going to end up.
3. Teams who feel they're a Kessel or Dion away after seeing problems this season/playoffs.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I don't know about that Bert

i find that buying Gms tend to be most irrational at the TD , when the bright lure of a cup run/ fan pressure, heck ownership PO revs $ are at there peak and supply is limited.

This cap stall is going to literally force good players onto the market at a discount , those teams won't just be motivated sellers but forced sellers, just to be cap compliant , like the boychuck,leddy thing.

then we will have to wait and see how the UFA market flushes out and who the losers are.

If my projections are correct, this batch of UFAs will reset player cap hit values lower, making our high ones even less attractive.

This summer is going to be a depressed sellers market, of that ,i have 0 doubt.

I think you're fair in your projections - I have no doubt that Phaneuf (and Kessel's) high salary will be a concern with any team but there will nonetheless be interest. That's where salary retention can still come into play as well as other cap dumps to help mitigate that.

I still believe the Leafs will have to retain some salary but there is more cap flexibility in the off-season than mid-season at the draft. That should help open the market a bit more for Phaneuf (and Kessel). At the same time the Leafs can still revisit the idea of getting a good prospect. I do believe Phaneuf and Kessel need to be moved around the draft/UFA period though - while I'm not in a rush to rebuild, in order to really push this thing forward I don't think either player should be on the roster next season. Bozak and Lupul too, but to a lesser extent.

It may take a couple of seasons to dispose of the core but they need to start sooner than later and cut "the head" off first

 

[Stand Witness]

Winning the lottery shouldn't really change our plans all that much... especially if the Leafs realize that Toronto isn't an environment conducive to McDavid's development, and move down to pick up a bunch of other assets.

At the end of the day, the Leafs are likely to have Strome (or McDavid), Nylander, and Percy on the roster next year. All 3 players will need to be highly insulated. At centre, you'd be looking for an immediate upgrade so that you can ice something better than Kadri/Bozak. At wing, you'd be looking for an immediate upgrade so that you can ice something better than Kessel/JvR/Lupul/Komarov (or at least, healthier), and on D, you're looking for an immediate upgrade so that the top 4 is better than Rielly/Phaneuf/Gardiner/Polak.

I agree. Getting McDavid shouldn't change anything. The Leaf thing in the past would have tried to compete right away if we got McDavid. Now we are hopefully more patient.

 

[RLF]

Why is how much Kessel skates a factor? He is one of the best skaters in the league and while you judge him on his appearance he also tests better than almost anybody on the team come training camp.

Everyone has things they need to work on and for Phil most of his off-season regime should be off-ice as it is for most NHL'ers

When did I mention his appearance? Talk about judging.
He had 5 months off. He did not say he works out hard, he said he prefers to go hunting and fishing...not what I would call dedicated to making his game better. People always mention a report that Phil was one of the top 3 in testing...not confirmed with any proof, just a report. When has Phil himself ever said "I really trained hard this off-season"? If he did, don't you think the media would know about it?

 

[Vexed]

If one was to assume that the uncertain cap going forward had anything to do with guys not being traded, well then buckle up and understand not much will change at the draft.

the cap is set after the draft, when the nhlpa votes on the 5% escalator.

That higher end cap number only effects a subset of teams so I still think the market will be more conducive to a move for term and dollars than at the TDL but maybe not as much as years past

 

[New Liskeard]

dudline day.

how does this bozo (nonis) still have a job with that many bad contracts?

Exactly, its not like any other GM's in the NHL have signed players to bad contracts. The great Holland signed Weiss to a bargain basement price and term.

 

[pspot]

if they are lucky enough to get mcdavid i dont want him to have carry kessel and be stuck between playing proper hockey and his winger pond hockey

 

[Vexed]

if they are lucky enough to get mcdavid i dont want him to have carry kessel and be stuck between playing proper hockey and his winger pond hockey

hahaha Kessel is one of the few players in the league that might be able to skate with Connor.

 

[pspot]

hahaha Kessel is one of the few players in the league that might be able to skate with Connor.

skating?

 

[Faltorvo]

When did I mention his appearance? Talk about judging.
He had 5 months off. He did not say he works out hard, he said he prefers to go hunting and fishing...not what I would call dedicated to making his game better. People always mention a report that Phil was one of the top 3 in testing...not confirmed with any proof, just a report. When has Phil himself ever said "I really trained hard this off-season"? If he did, don't you think the media would know about it?

the leafs own media department would be peddling that hard core, HARD CORE

but the fact that it is such an absurd notion that kessel works out or gives a hoot about his conditioning is so out there, that there is no way they can even attempt to try to spin that or push the needle as some would say.


that would be as absurd a notion as to try and peddle this team as cup contenders.

 

[Tak7]

If one was to assume that the uncertain cap going forward had anything to do with guys not being traded, well then buckle up and understand not much will change at the draft.

the cap is set after the draft, when the nhlpa votes on the 5% escalator.

It's a 10% escalator, it's already been voted on (no), and the GMs know what the worst case scenario lowest possible cap already.

What changes is internal budgets, team expectations, and the like.

For example a team that had a good season this season might decide to spend closer to the cap next season by adding a Kessel, or a team that got bumped early in the playoffs may want to shake things up by making a trade.

Overall it becomes much easier to move money in the off season because owners are very hesitant to add money mid-season, for the same uncertainty you mentioned.

 

[BlueForever]

I think Kessel is the least likely to move anyways and winning McDavid soldifies he stays imo. Nothing else changes to me.

Pittsburgh already had Malkin, Letang and Fleury drafted before Crosby was picked and still sucked to get J.Staal after.

I don't think McDavid accelerates the rebuild in any way other than that he is really good.

I disagree.

When the Leafs already have Kessel, JVR, Bernier, Reilly, Gardiner, Kadri, Holland, Percy and Nylander. Plus they have vets like Lupul, Komarov, Robidas and Polak. The addition of McDavid instantly makes you much better. The shipping out of Phaneuf and Bozak helps towards changing the culture. And bringing in other parts for them or parts for our future still goes towards the rebuild.

McDavid changes the course slightly. But Bozak and Phaneuf still get traded.

 

[seanlinden]

I agree. Getting McDavid shouldn't change anything. The Leaf thing in the past would have tried to compete right away if we got McDavid. Now we are hopefully more patient.

We need to compete right away regardless of McDavid. It's unrealistic to expect players to develop without being a competitive team yourself.

 

[RLF]

the leafs own media department would be peddling that hard core, HARD CORE

but the fact that it is such an absurd notion that kessel works out or gives a hoot about his conditioning is so out there, that there is no way they can even attempt to try to spin that or push the needle as some would say.


that would be as absurd a notion as to try and peddle this team as cup contenders.

Yea, some seem to forget that the Leafs have not come to Phil's defence on the training issue. The Leafs promoted how hard Clarkson worked this past summer before the season started, but had nothing to say about how hard Phil worked in the off-season when his conditioning was questioned...wonder why that is?

 

[Faltorvo]

That higher end cap number only effects a subset of teams so I still think the market will be more conducive to a move for term and dollars than at the TDL but maybe not as much as years past

oh i completely disagree with that sentiment.

between the pending UFAs and players being forced onto the trade market because of these cap issues, new contracts and trade values will drop. Supply and demand will favour the buyer this summer.

something tells me there is going to be a glut of available players and a very small amount of purchasers out there.

If one starts to eliminate the cap crushed teams, teams that have internal budgets well below the cap and the other teams that are in rebuild mode that have no interest in adding players with age or term.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

This just isn't true.

I don't care what he looks like he consistently tests as one of the fittest on the club year in and year out

He does? You can support that some way?

 

[SeenSchenn2]

He does? You can support that some way?

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1738671

 

[Faltorvo]

I think you're fair in your projections - I have no doubt that Phaneuf (and Kessel's) high salary will be a concern with any team but there will nonetheless be interest. That's where salary retention can still come into play as well as other cap dumps to help mitigate that.

I still believe the Leafs will have to retain some salary but there is more cap flexibility in the off-season than mid-season at the draft. That should help open the market a bit more for Phaneuf (and Kessel). At the same time the Leafs can still revisit the idea of getting a good prospect. I do believe Phaneuf and Kessel need to be moved around the draft/UFA period though - while I'm not in a rush to rebuild, in order to really push this thing forward I don't think either player should be on the roster next season. Bozak and Lupul too, but to a lesser extent.

It may take a couple of seasons to dispose of the core but they need to start sooner than later and cut "the head" off first

In truth (and this is completely opposite of what i want) but gotta call it like i see it

We just might have to wait till the CAD gets back to close to par with USA before the markets open up again. Two major banks have already forecast a low 70s CAD down the raod , organisations are going to view the cap in a whole new light now that they have a first hand taste of what a falling CAD can do.

What few had projected (falling CAD) has come to pass, the cap nightmare Scenario is here.

 

[Faltorvo]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1738671

bahahahahahah


THAT's your evidence???


oh my, oh my, some folks just don't understand the media game at all.

 

[Stand Witness]

The overhaul of the Toronto Maple Leafs has begun but the guts of it will wait until the offseason, when the likes of Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf and Joffrey Lupul will likely be moved.

There was very little chance Kessel would move before Monday's trade deadline; there were a few inquiries over the past few weeks but nothing that serious. The plan all along for Leafs management on their highest-paid player was to conduct a bigger auction in June, when more teams can get involved.

And, really, that was the case with Phaneuf too, although the phone calls came in a little more readily on him in the last few days before the deadline, including, of course, a well-publicized chat with the Detroit Red Wings.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/1...ne-boston-bruins-gave-their-all-load-deadline

I without a doubt trust Pierre, pretty much in-line with what most of us thought.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1738671

Yeah, that should tell you that the "info" was pure bs.
Santorelli, Winnik, Komarov and Rielly are the kind of guys I would say are fit.

Kessel has powerful skating and this year the fitness test was not a fitness test but a skating efficiency test so no surprise Kessel got good results, if the info is even true will say. That Cox tweet came out 1-2 days after an article had been published where Kessel had been called overweight and out of shape by the coaches. If you understand how franchises deal with protecting their brand and their players you would also understand that leaking info contradicting a negative article about a player is exactly what they do.

And it is laughable that guys rely on a tweet that begins with "The word is..." as some kind of official info. Kessel looks winded after a shift, he looks out of shape and he have again had a season where he completely falls of the cliff towards the end of the season. All this indicates he is not fit. But you go ahead and fool your self that he is one of the fittest Leafs

 

[Vexed]

Yeah, that should tell you that the "info" was pure bs.
Santorelli, Winnik, Komarov and Rielly are the kind of guys I would say are fit.

Kessel has powerful skating and this year the fitness test was not a fitness test but a skating efficiency test so no surprise Kessel got good results, if the info is even true will say.

And it is laughable that guys rely on a tweet that begins with "The word is..." as some kind of official info. Kessel looks winded after a shift, he looks out of shape and he have again had a season where he completely falls of the cliff towards the end of the season. All these indicates he is not fit. But you go ahead and fool your self that he is one of the fittest Leafs

Okay fine if we are going to go of anecdotal evidence only

Kessel is one of the most durable forwards in the game. He hasn't missed a game since 09

Kessel has averaged just under 20min a game since coming to Toronto

Kessel is one of the top 5 consistent point getters in the league

If he is out of shape then he can continue to be out of shape for all I care but it only takes about 2 seconds of rational thinking to understand that in this league you cannot possibly stay productive and healthy while being out of shape.

I think the guy could use an attitude adjustment but this other crap is just ignorant tbh