Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LII

[MuckOG]

Keyword. Accused.
Innocent until proven guilty. Or is that no longer a thing?

Not in 2021.

Seriously though, Kane does seem to have a documented history with gambling issues, but this is the first time he's been accused of betting on games he's played in. Probably best to let the NHL investigate before convicting him in the court of public opinion.

 

[BagHead]

hes being accused by his estranged wife that he gambled against his team and threw games.

I think his surprise was at the declaration of how likely his guilt is, not about what he's accused of. Dangerous to jump to conclusions in matters of law, especially when the accusations are coming from a wife who is going through what appears to be an ugly divorce with the accused.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

A rise to $82.5 million in 2022-23 would likely trigger the start of a “lag formula,” as agreed upon in Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations between the NHL and NHL Players’ Association in 2020, that could see the salary cap climb $1 million each offseason until the escrow balance owed to owners is paid off.

We could be at a 85.5M cap when Parise/Suter are off the books. We’re going to be swimming in money

SEASON	PROJ. SALARY CAP	PROJ. REVENUE	ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22	$81.5 MILLION	$4.8 BILLION	$1.3 BILLION
2022-23	$82.5 MILLION	$5.4 BILLION	$0.98 BILLION
2023-24	$83.5 MILLION	$5.6 BILLION	$0.63 BILLION
2024-25	$84.5 MILLION	$5.8 BILLION	$0.20 BILLION
2025-26	$85.5 MILLION	$6 BILLION	PAID OFF
2026-27	$91.4 MILLION	$6.2 BILLION

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

DFO projections for the cap

 

[GuerinUp]

We could be at a 85.5M cap when Parise/Suter are off the books. We’re going to be swimming in money


DFO projections for the cap

well thats good news, almost wonder if BG had a lil inside info on this before buying them out which made the decision easier.

also brings up a good point the kap should sign a 5 year deal so he can cash in big time when that escrow is over.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

well thats good news, almost wonder if BG had a lil inside info on this before buying them out which made the decision easier.

I mean, it’s all just projections. It could always not happen if things go south

 

[nickschultzfan]

well thats good news, almost wonder if BG had a lil inside info on this before buying them out which made the decision easier.

also brings up a good point the kap should sign a 5 year deal so he can cash in big time when that escrow is over.

Guerin's options were:

1) Trade Suter for considerations while retaining $3.5m. Significant draw back would that if Suter retired in 3 years, right at the time the Wild would be competing, they would have major issues. Also, extra cap space would probably be gobbled up in the JEE/Kap/Fiala negotiations and/or Suter's replacement.

2) Keep Suter. Draw back is that his cap hit would be still be there, and his attitude would negatively affect the team when they are trying to compete.

3) Buyout Suter. Drawback is dead cap and need to replace Suter.​

All three options have cap issues that are in the same ballpark.

Guerin choose the option that gave the team the most control and certainty - buying out Suter. By having that control and certainty, Guerin was able to bring in Goligoski to replace Suter. If Guerin can keep re-signing him to short term deals, he will have successful navigated the problems created by Fletcher and left by Fenton.

 

[MuckOG]

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Innocent until proven guilty is a legal matter. Every one else is free to believe what they want and no thanks to Kane. Not even his teammates are standing up for him.....no bueno.

 

[57special]

If they don't work out things before hand on a longer term deal then this is not good. I am guessing that Fiala and his agent were overly aggressive in their demands, and not budging, as i can't imagine guerin going this route unless he felt forced to. Can't say I have much of a read on what goes on in BG's head, though.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Still a bit sad that we didn’t push to get Middelstadt last year before he broke out, would have been huge for us, fits our cap structure really well and fills a huge skill role.

I thought I also saw that McMichael is expected to have another year in the AHL for Washington, might be potential there since they still have some depth at C even without Kuznetsov.

Unfortunately a lot of the young centers seem to be in the West and teams are always more hesitant to trade young skill guys within conference for anything even resembling fair value.

 

[Spurgeon]

I swear to god if BG lets this get to arbitration and Fiala chooses a 2-year deal to bring him to UFA…

Give him a long-term deal & be a piece you build around for years 5+.

 

[Minnesnota]

I swear to god if BG lets this get to arbitration and Fiala chooses a 2-year deal to bring him to UFA…

Give him a long-term deal & be a piece you build around for years 5+.

You're suggesting BBB just gives Fiala whatever he wants? I want to live in your world where people are just given whatever they want.

Fiala is learning really quick what Guerin's BATNA is.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Should we blame Russo for speculation Fiala trades and making Fiala insecure?

 

[57special]

Still a bit sad that we didn’t push to get Middelstadt last year before he broke out, would have been huge for us, fits our cap structure really well and fills a huge skill role.

I thought I also saw that McMichael is expected to have another year in the AHL for Washington, might be potential there since they still have some depth at C even without Kuznetsov.

Unfortunately a lot of the young centers seem to be in the West and teams are always more hesitant to trade young skill guys within conference for anything even resembling fair value.

Mittelstadt has broken out?

 

[Spurgeon]

You're suggesting BBB just gives Fiala whatever he wants? I want to live in your world where people are just given whatever they want.

Fiala is learning really quick what Guerin's BATNA is.

Yes, that’s exactly what I’m suggesting. 100%. Give him 8 x $15M AAV.

Arbitration is the absolute worse alternative agreement from the team perspective, so I guess that really is Guerin’s BATNA. Guy is clueless.

 

[Nsjohnson]

hes being accused by his estranged wife that he gambled against his team and threw games.

Yeah I know that. But, so far there seems to be nothing but confounded words and a definite lack of facts. It will be very hard to prove and even his own statement makes 'some' sense.

If there is a digital or easy paper trail, it will be found. If there isn't, because he didn't, or because there just isn't a trail, it will be hard, and even harder to say he tried to 'throw' games.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Should we blame Russo for speculation Fiala trades and making Fiala insecure?

I see no issue with this.

 

[HotDish]

If Kane was betting against himself and trying to throw games you wouldn't think he would play at at 73 point pace and over 30 goal pace. He arguable had one of his best seasons last year and was probably the Sharks' best player.

 

[TaLoN]

If Kane was betting against himself and trying to throw games you wouldn't think he would play at at 73 point pace and over 30 goal pace. He arguable had one of his best seasons last year and was probably the Sharks' best player.

Wouldn't stop him from a key turnover or not following through on a defensive play from time to time.

When your goaltending is as bad as theirs was, that can have a big impact.

Not saying he did that, but season paces don't say much about it either way IMO.

 

[Nsjohnson]

Wouldn't stop him from a key turnover or not following through on a defensive play from time to time.

When your goaltending is as bad as theirs was, that can have a big impact.

Not saying he did that, but season paces don't say much about it either way IMO.

And it will be impossible to prove if that's your 'proof'.

Half the NHL does this.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Mittelstadt has broken out?

Well compared from start of season not being an NHLer to pacing for 65 points in the second half of the season (sample size obviously an issue for a true breakout) his value has drastically shifted. Considering Reinhart gone and Eichel situation he went from a buy low candidate to untouchable for them.

 

[Minnesnota]

Yes, that’s exactly what I’m suggesting. 100%. Give him 8 x $15M AAV.

Arbitration is the absolute worse alternative agreement from the team perspective, so I guess that really is Guerin’s BATNA. Guy is clueless.

So you have insider information that says this is all Guerin's fault? Give me a break.

You're on a fishing expedition with your panties in a bunch.

Arbitration is serving its purpose perfectly. If Guerin feels they are offering a fair deal to Fiala and that Fiala is asking for way too much, for a team to elect to arbitration usually indicates they have confidence in a neutral party ruling on an AAV closer to their number than Fiala's.

It's uncommon for teams to elect for arbitration and even more uncommon for a deal to not be reached prior to an arbiters decision. Fiala is playing a game that is significantly riskier for him than it is for the team.

 

[HotDish]

Wouldn't stop him from a key turnover or not following through on a defensive play from time to time.

When your goaltending is as bad as theirs was, that can have a big impact.

Not saying he did that, but season paces don't say much about it either way IMO.

Maybe, but looking over his stats on Hockey reference. He has more total goals for on the ice than against. His plus/minus was better than normal only a -1 instead of -12 like last year (useless stat of course though). Over 50 corsi and Fenwick. Only 3 more giveaways than takeaways.

All of this while stating more times in the defensive zone than offensive for the first time since his rookie year.

I didn't watch the sharks much outside our games and even then I play more attention to the Wild than opposing players. Just by reading the stats it almost seems like Kane got a heavier defensive load than past years all the while have a good offensive year for the stinker of the team he was on. If anything it looks like they were fine with him starting in the D zone vs previous years.

Either the Coach is in on the betting making Kane start more in the D zone to give up those turnovers or Kane is play 4D chess by improving his game to have the Sharks trust his defense leading to him to throw a game.

 

[Bazeek]

So you have insider information that says this is all Guerin's fault? Give me a break.

You're on a fishing expedition with your panties in a bunch.

Arbitration is serving its purpose perfectly. If Guerin feels they are offering a fair deal to Fiala and that Fiala is asking for way too much, for a team to elect to arbitration usually indicates they have confidence in a neutral party ruling on an AAV closer to their number than Fiala's.

It's uncommon for teams to elect for arbitration and even more uncommon for a deal to not be reached prior to an arbiters decision. Fiala is playing a game that is significantly riskier for him than it is for the team.

It's a question of priorities. What Guerin's (likely) done is collapsed the range of options on term to 1 or 2 years (neither of which is ideal) for the sake of getting this all sorted out before training camp starts. Unless Fiala's camp is being completely unreasonable I have to wonder what made it worth sacrificing the possibility of signing him for more than 2 years.

 

[Spurgeon]

So you have insider information that says this is all Guerin's fault? Give me a break.

You're on a fishing expedition with your panties in a bunch.

Arbitration is serving its purpose perfectly. If Guerin feels they are offering a fair deal to Fiala and that Fiala is asking for way too much, for a team to elect to arbitration usually indicates they have confidence in a neutral party ruling on an AAV closer to their number than Fiala's.

It's uncommon for teams to elect for arbitration and even more uncommon for a deal to not be reached prior to an arbiters decision. Fiala is playing a game that is significantly riskier for him than it is for the team.

The Wild filed for arbitration, so yes, if this results in a 2-year deal that takes Fiala directly to UFA, it will be Guerin’s fault.

This isn’t risky for Fiala whatsoever.