Trade and Free Agency Discussion Thread - Don't Expect More Augmenting

[ToneDog]

Watched like 5 minutes of the Brooklyn Nets game from the Barkley Centre yesterday and was floored by the commentator's comment that it felt like an Islander's game (i.e. nobody in the stands).

Luckily Lou was not watching or he might have suffered a coronary.

 

[Antropovsky]

Watched like 5 minutes of the Brooklyn Nets game from the Barkley Centre yesterday and was floored by the commentator's comment that it felt like an Islander's game (i.e. nobody in the stands).

Luckily Lou was not watching or he might have suffered a coronary.

Doubtful, considering how many years he spent in Jersey.

 

[123offtheglass]

Bill Guerin in my opinion: a bad general manager. He's made 1 for 1 trades just like this before so I could see him doing this and even retaining or adding a late pick to make it work. He straight up traded Eric Staal for Marcus Johansson, Nino Neiderreiter for Victor Rask and explained the trades with: "we got younger, and sometimes you just gotta mix it up and see what happens". This hypothetical trade would be his best yet, depending if picks/retention are involved. I feel bad for Wild fans. Kerfoot may be expansion draft expendable, the move frees up cap next seasons for the COVID market (players sign for less because less money is in market, and unknown cap future). I know he just traded for Nick Bonino, he was on a mission for a center and that guy is UFA at the end of the season; but once Minnesota falls in the playoff race...

Bonino:
- Good middle 6 center, can eat minutes
- Not elite but good on draws
- Really good penalty killer, defensively responsible
- Heavily used in the defensive zone compared to the OZ
- Part of the solid HBK line for Penguins 2016 Stanley Cup
- Poor powerplay production, produces at even strength
*note: almost half of Kerfoot's production in Colorado was on their deadly powerplay.

Either retention or accumulated cap space (which occurs throughout season) would make the deal work.

 

[Rielly4]

no thanks

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Bill Guerin in my opinion: a bad general manager. He's made 1 for 1 trades just like this before so I could see him doing this and even retaining or adding a late pick to make it work. He straight up traded Eric Staal for Marcus Johansson, Nino Neiderreiter for Victor Rask and explained the trades with: "we got younger, and sometimes you just gotta mix it up and see what happens". This hypothetical trade would be his best yet, depending if picks/retention are involved. I feel bad for Wild fans. Kerfoot may be expansion draft expendable, the move frees up cap next seasons for the COVID market (players sign for less because less money is in market, and unknown cap future). I know he just traded for Nick Bonino, he was on a mission for a center and that guy is UFA at the end of the season; but once Minnesota falls in the playoff race...

Bonino:
- Good middle 6 center, can eat minutes
- Not elite but good on draws
- Really good penalty killer, defensively responsible
- Heavily used in the defensive zone compared to the OZ
- Part of the solid HBK line for Penguins 2016 Stanley Cup
- Poor powerplay production, produces at even strength
*note: almost half of Kerfoot's production in Colorado was on their deadly powerplay.

Either retention or accumulated cap space (which occurs throughout season) would make the deal work.

Kerfoot is more valuable than Bonino. Kerfoot may or may not be exposed in expansion and if he ends up getting taken, then perhaps the Leafs could look at Bonino, among many others, as UFA replacements for him.

Until then, I think the Leafs are more than happy to keep Kerfoot.

 

[123offtheglass]

Kerfoot is more valuable than Bonino. Kerfoot may or may not be exposed in expansion and if he ends up getting taken, then perhaps the Leafs could look at Bonino, among many others, as UFA replacements for him.

Until then, I think the Leafs are more than happy to keep Kerfoot.

He's a good player, but how do you access value? In my mind Bonino is clearly the better player and fits a need.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

How does the OP plan on fitting Bonino in on the cap? He makes 600k more than Kerfoot. That doesn't sound like much, but in the current cap squeeze, its alot.

 

[robertmac43]

Pass on this from me. Kerfoot proved to be solid in the bubble and I want to see if he can build on that play in 2020-21.

 

[The Iceman]

How does the OP plan on fitting Bonino in on the cap? He makes 600k more than Kerfoot. That doesn't sound like much, but in the current cap squeeze, its alot.

CAP SCHMAP

 

[123offtheglass]

How does the OP plan on fitting Bonino in on the cap? He makes 600k more than Kerfoot. That doesn't sound like much, but in the current cap squeeze, its alot.

As I said at the end, possibly retention or cap space accumulation.

It would depend on how much the Leafs stay under the Salary Cap throughout the season. If the Leafs held a 21 man roster (including goalies) starting at roughly 0.5m cap space; they could theoretically have 1.175m cap space by the deadline if they held that same roster throughout the season. Calling up players for a greater amount of roster players would decrease this, & high cap hit players going on LTIR (I'm not sure about IR) could increase accumulation as am amount proportional to the difference in the player's cap hit that's filling in and the amount of days (compared to the entire amount of days from January 13th to the trade deadline I think). That's why we had so much potential cap space at last year's deadline due to players Like Marner Mo Muz being going on LTIR.

So say in this exact scenario above Tavares (11m) and Bogosian (1m) go on LTIR for 2 weeks, being filled in with Barabanov (0.925m) and Rosen (0.75m). They would gain extra cap space accumulation than they would otherwise by:

2.35x ((((11m+1m)-(0.75m+0.925m)) x 14 days)/# of days in season to deadline)

Lets say the season is 120 days this year with 56 games. that would be an extra 2.831m accumilated than they would have otherwise during those 2 weeks. If this was the only roster change to the above they'd have 2.831m + 1.175m = 4.006m at the deadline in cap space. I'm not certain I'm exactly right on this but I think this is the close.

 

[qqaz]

Risk for Neiderreiter wasn't a Guerin move. That was Fenton. I normally wouldn't point out a petty difference like this, but your whole plan hinges on Guerin making a dumb move like your examples. But he didn't make that mistake.

Guerin is definitely looking to make changes, and the Staal trade was idiotic. But I don't think you can just assume he'll make any bad trade that helps us.

Also, I think I'd prefer Kerfoot anyway. Bonino is more expensive, 6 years older, and usually gets about 16 minutes a game. Thats about 2 minutes more than we're probably willing to give a #3 C (Kerf got 14 ish), based on the other centers on the roster. So I doubt he'd be as effective here with less playing time.

 

[justashadowof]

There would be a way to fit the player's slightly higher cap hit. That's zero concern. Why would Minnesota make that trade? When a franchise goes into selloff mode, they go looking for futures not overpaid middling 3rd line centers. Maybe 2 x 2nds + Kerfoot is the type of deal it would be, not because Kerfoot is utterly useless as an NHL player but because Bonino is the more desirable player for a playoff run and Kerfoot becomes a cap dump. Maybe it could be done in two parts: futures for Bonino then Kerfoot and his bloated contract to another organization for nothing or next to nothing.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Kerfoot is more valuable than Bonino. Kerfoot may or may not be exposed in expansion and if he ends up getting taken, then perhaps the Leafs could look at Bonino, among many others, as UFA replacements for him.

Until then, I think the Leafs are more than happy to keep Kerfoot.

Don't get your hopes up ... no one is taking Kerfoot ... if Seattle takes anyone from Leafs it is Dermy and that's pretty much it ... very very very outside chance of Holl but generally teams don't want #7 type defensemen

 

[BlueForever75]

No thank you. Kerfoot played well in bubble. Was being used in various situations and with the loss of Kapanen and Johnsson he is going to fill in on the wing some place with Thornton taking over at center. Also, the flexibility that he brings is great insurance. He can play center, wing, PK and PP.

Would be a stupid move on the Leafs part.

 

[BlueForever75]

Don't get your hopes up ... no one is taking Kerfoot ... if Seattle takes anyone from Leafs it is Dermy and that's pretty much it ... very very very outside chance of Holl but generally teams don't want #7 type defensemen

This season will decide whom gets chosen from the Leafs. Dermott being targeted is a possibility and you may be right. But Holl could turn in another good to solid season playing next to Muzzin all year. He wasnt all that bad, and for the price he was signed to could be a bargain.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Risk for Neiderreiter wasn't a Guerin move. That was Fenton. I normally wouldn't point out a petty difference like this, but your whole plan hinges on Guerin making a dumb move like your examples. But he didn't make that mistake.

Guerin is definitely looking to make changes, and the Staal trade was idiotic. But I don't think you can just assume he'll make any bad trade that helps us.

Also, I think I'd prefer Kerfoot anyway. Bonino is more expensive, 6 years older, and usually gets about 16 minutes a game. Thats about 2 minutes more than we're probably willing to give a #3 C (Kerf got 14 ish), based on the other centers on the roster. So I doubt he'd be as effective here with less playing time.

The whole plan also goes against what Guerin has been doing.

Guerin has either brought in picks or prospects or guys on expiring deals that he can flip this trade deadline (Johansson, Bonino, Bjugstad) for picks or prospects.

I really don't see why Guerin would have interest in Kerfoot vs. just dealing Bonino for a pick.

 

[Buds17]

Unless Bonino ends up being a significant upgrade by the time this made would be made, I could only see this materializing from an expansion draft point of view. Otherwise, the Leafs lose out on term and gain on cap (unless retention does happen) for a reason I'm not sure of. Kapanen and Johnsson at least returned assets for over a longer term (Hallander, the 1st, Anderson).

 

[123offtheglass]

No thank you. Kerfoot played well in bubble. Was being used in various situations and with the loss of Kapanen and Johnsson he is going to fill in on the wing some place with Thornton taking over at center. Also, the flexibility that he brings is great insurance. He can play center, wing, PK and PP.

Would be a stupid move on the Leafs part.

Agreed, other than it being a dumb move on the Leafs part. Have you seen Bonino play? Better player and fit. Leafs don't have that guy to rely on for D zone starts or win draws on the PK. It hurts them. If Kerfoot is gonna be that guy he has a huge step to take before becoming the equivalent of Nick Bonino.

 

[123offtheglass]

Risk for Neiderreiter wasn't a Guerin move. That was Fenton. I normally wouldn't point out a petty difference like this, but your whole plan hinges on Guerin making a dumb move like your examples. But he didn't make that mistake.

Guerin is definitely looking to make changes, and the Staal trade was idiotic. But I don't think you can just assume he'll make any bad trade that helps us.

Also, I think I'd prefer Kerfoot anyway. Bonino is more expensive, 6 years older, and usually gets about 16 minutes a game. Thats about 2 minutes more than we're probably willing to give a #3 C (Kerf got 14 ish), based on the other centers on the roster. So I doubt he'd be as effective here with less playing time.

Didn't realize this, I remember after the Staal trade I laughed my ass off thinking he made both deals; maybe there's hope.

 

[BlueForever75]

Agreed, other than it being a dumb move on the Leafs part. Have you seen Bonino play? Better player and fit. Leafs don't have that guy to rely on for D zone starts or win draws on the PK. It hurts them. If Kerfoot is gonna be that guy he has a huge step to take before becoming the equivalent of Nick Bonino.

We have multiple players that can take the draw and do it well. The Leafs were near the top in faceoff percentage last year as a team. I have definitely seen Bonino play and he's a good player but at 4.1 million a season he isnt that much better then Kerfoot. I really like Kerfoot's hockey IQ, he is a smart player that isnt afraid to go into the tough areas. Plus we found out last season in playoffs the guy can PK as well. So maybe for 75oK less we have a Bonino in the making on our hands already.

To me its wasted $$$.

 

[Fogelhund]

Yost: Frederik Andersen decision looming for Toronto Maple Leafs - TSN.ca

As optimism grows concerning the National Hockey League’s intention to return in January for a reported 56-game regular season, so too does the consternation over critical roster decisions. The runway from the start of the regular season to both the trade deadline and the 2021-22 off-season is going to be short. Decisions must be made quickly.
One of the more interesting decisions needs to be made in Toronto, where there is continued hope of a Stanley Cup bid. Like a dozen or so teams around the league, the Maple Leafs have spent aggressively towards the cap ceiling, banking on league growth rates to create cap space in future years. The only problem was that a global pandemic struck, siphoning away critical gate revenue and forcing a flat cap for at least 2020-21.
Most of Toronto’s core in the skater ranks are signed long term, but they do not have the same security in the crease. Frederik Andersen ($5-million dollar cap hit; expiring at season’s end), 31, and 28-year-old Jack Campbell ($1.6-million dollar cap hit; expiring in 2021-22) will man the crease this season.
Andersen is a bit of a lightning rod in Toronto. He has been a reliable stopper of the puck since entering the league with Anaheim in 2013-14, but he is also coming off his worst season and is part of a team with pervasive performance issues on the defensive end.
There is another complicating factor: A league-wide talent influx at the position means more capable goaltenders are available each year in free agency. Right now, next off-season’s list could include Tuukka Rask, Jordan Binnington, Antti Raanta, and Philipp Grubauer.
Bringing this back to Andersen, although we can’t quite say what his cost base might be due to the economic uncertainty, we can get a feel for what type of contributor he has been and what future projections of performance may look like.
If we look at his performance measures over the last five years, we can grade him out against his peers accordingly:

Raw save percentage (easy to measure, but plagued by team effects) and goals above expectations (harder to measure, but recognizes the varying difficulty goaltenders face through a combination of shot volume and shot quality against) tell a consistent story in Andersen’s case. He’s been an above-average option in net for Toronto over the past five years, generally grading better than two-thirds (or more) of his peers.
The one exception just so happened to be last year, where Andersen finished with save percentages comparable to Alex Stalock of the Minnesota Wild and current free agent Ryan Miller. Adjustments for the quality of those shots do not improve the story. Evolving Hockey’s regression-based model had Andersen 11 goals worse than we would expect from an average goaltender in the same position, placing him just ahead of Anaheim’s John Gibson and the currently unsigned Craig Anderson.
The good news for Toronto is the 2019-20 season – disastrous as it was – won’t be the last we see of Andersen in Toronto. The Maple Leafs will likely get at least 30 more games from the Dane to see if last year’s performance was an outlier or indicative of the start of declining play.
Before last season, Andersen was as predictable and reliable a goaltender as you could find in the league – not the most dominant of options, but a guy who routinely would provide value at the position. But there is little doubt last year’s campaign has complicated matters enough for Toronto; doubly so with limited internal options in the case of an emergency. Is he really beginning an age-induced downswing, or was it just a multi-month slump?
Not an easy question to answer for the Maple Leafs organization, and turning to video doesn’t help a ton either. Andersen had his share of miscues handling the puck and taking himself out of position, but Toronto’s defence was notorious for ill-timed turnovers and indifference to closing off opposition passing lanes. Andersen wasn’t the only problem for the Maple Leafs, but he was a problem.
If Andersen can rebound this season and put last year into the “one-off” category, Toronto will surely consider an extension. But if last season was a harbinger of what’s to come, the Maple Leafs are going to be another team busy in the goaltending market.
Data via NHL.com, Hockey Reference, Evolving Hockey

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Boychuks $6mil will hit LTIR, so they aren’t as bad as people think.

Some of the faithful seem obsessed about Lou & the demise of the NYI ...... LOL.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He's a good player, but how do you access value? In my mind Bonino is clearly the better player and fits a need.

He is younger, cheaper, signed long term, and I am not sure the Bonino in the three year stretch between this past year and his first Cup in PIT (2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2018-2019) has been any better than Kerfoot has been in his first three years in the league... And I would bet on Kerfoot progressing as a 26 year old who is healthy and was quite effective in the playoffs over a 31 year old Bonino coming off of a career year and is likely to regress back to a level of play which could easily be worse than Kerfoot next year.

If we lose Kerfoot to expansion, or trade him for a pending UFA like Bonino, we are going to need his money to find another Kerfoot next year. It is not like there is a shortage of options in UFA, but I think Dubas would rather have Kerfoot on his roster for a year and then lose him in expansion (which has value in itself, since we would not lose another valuable asset like Holl to expansion instead) than trade for a marginal upgrade at best, who costs more cap, and then is a UFA we'd need to re-sign or replace for likely the same amount of money as Kerfoot, but with a lot less upside.

Dubas is probably done with any major moves. Some even think he won't be giving out any kind of PTO's or make any more minor trades/signings. I think that comes down to whether guys come back from Europe this year, whether there will be an AHL season, and how the taxi system will work. If certain guys who would typically be in the AHL are on the taxi squad instead, then he almost certainly needs to sign a couple of forwards at the very least.

 

[WTFMAN99]

If Andersen were to walk at the end of the season, Ullmark looks tempting to run in tandem with Campbell.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Boychuks $6mil will hit LTIR, so they aren’t as bad as people think.

They can sign everybody they have now sure, but with Boychuk on LTIR for two years it gives them zero in season flexibility. They'd be in the same bind we were last year with the inability to accrue cap space during the season.

If they get hit with injuries like we did last year they'd be screwed.