Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[MissouriMook]

On the playoff quest, here is some perspective.

Right now, the Wild sit in the 2nd wildcard spot with 30 points in 26 games. If they duplicate that pace over their next 26 games they would have 60 points in 52 games and would be on a pace for around 95 points.

In order for the Blues to be tied for the 2nd wildcard spot at the 52 game mark, they need 39 points in their next 27 games. That would take roughly an 18-6-3 record in those 27 games, a pace that would have us tied for first in the league if we had that record right now.

Alternatively, if we keep pace during the middle third of the season, remaining roughly 9 points out of the 2nd wildcard with 27 games to go, we would need a similar run of 39 points in 27 games to tie for that spot. These two points of reference show exactly why teams that are more than a few points out of a playoff spot by this point in the season rarely make the playoffs.

 

[Brian39]

I love it!

I wouldn't go so high as 10. One or two teams always seem to move up, so 10 doesn't feel very safe. Spot 8 or lower feels pretty safe. Just my thoughts. Thanks!

I will be exceedingly nervous if there is any mathematical possibility that the lottery could force us out of the top 10. EVerything that could go wrong already has this season. Losing a #11 pick on a less than 1% chance of falling outside the top 10 would be such a Bluesy thing to happen and the perfect finish to this dumpster fire of a season.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I will be exceedingly nervous if there is any mathematical possibility that the lottery could force us out of the top 10. EVerything that could go wrong already has this season. Losing a #11 pick on a less than 1% chance of falling outside the top 10 would be such a Bluesy thing to happen and the perfect finish to this dumpster fire of a season.

Can't we do the scenario where the Blues are picking like 12th and then win the lottery to bump Chicago out of the 1st overall? Why can't the world do THAT.

 

[Brian39]

On the playoff quest, here is some perspective.

Right now, the Wild sit in the 2nd wildcard spot with 30 points in 26 games. If they duplicate that pace over their next 26 games they would have 60 points in 52 games and would be on a pace for around 95 points.

In order for the Blues to be tied for the 2nd wildcard spot at the 52 game mark, they need 39 points in their next 27 games. That would take roughly an 18-6-3 record in those 27 games, a pace that would have us tied for first in the league if we had that record right now.

Alternatively, if we keep pace during the middle third of the season, remaining roughly 9 points out of the 2nd wildcard with 27 games to go, we would need a similar run of 39 points in 27 games to tie for that spot. These two points of reference show exactly why teams that are more than a few points out of a playoff spot by this point in the season rarely make the playoffs.

I don't think either of those particular scenarios are all that valuable to demonstrate our likelihood of playoffs. Even if we beat the very long odds to make the playoffs, we are probably talking about a team that is still 4-5 points out at the 52 game mark. We will need 2 good performances in the remaining 2 'thirds' of the season in order to have a shot at the playoffs. We're not making the playoffs if we play at a 95 point pace for any remaining stretch of 25+ games. We have to play at about a 106 point pace from here on out to have a shot.

With all that said, I think we are on the same page about our likelihood of making the playoffs. 3 games ago I said we needed to get 10 points out of the next 8 in order to still be close enough that we shouldn't give up on the season. We've gone 1-2 since then. Additionally, Colorado went 3-0-1 in that stretch, which has made it highly unlikely that we are chasing them for a WC spot (which is tough since we have more games left against them than we do the Wild).

In order to reach my 10 point baseline, we need to go 4-1 or 3-0-2 in our next 5, which includes games against the Jets and Avs. I think I'm throwing in the towel by the end of the week.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Can't we do the scenario where the Blues are picking like 12th and then win the lottery to bump Chicago out of the 1st overall? Why can't the world do THAT.

I probably could, but let's keep this manageable.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Took the liberty of editing the thread title.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’m ready for a “tank for top 5 pick” thread

 

[SneakerPimp82]

Took the liberty of editing the thread title.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Took the liberty of editing the thread title.

Damn it Easton, why do you have to be such a pessimist? We went on a miracle run 9 years ago with key guys out of the lineup, we could do it again!

 

[Ranksu]

Do we've change for playoffs?

Its going to hard if we end up to miss top10 and then miss plsyoffs yet sgain snd miss 1st round pick yet again.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Do we've change for playoffs?

Its going to hard if we end up to miss top10 and then miss plsyoffs yet sgain snd miss 1st round pick yet again.

Prepare yourself. That’s the most likely scenario.

 

[Ranksu]

Prepare yourself. That’s the most likely scenario.

Yep, we're too good to suck this badly, but too bad to climb platoffs so #10-#15 will do it for the Blues.

If so we lose top10 pick or miss the playoffs then Army need to get fired.

 

[WeWentBlues]

We are making playoffs or getting a top 10 pick. I will not believe in any other scenario despite how likely it could be

 

[carter333167]

Slot 11-15, here we come. Leave it to this team to f*** this up in literally every possible manner.

 

[Mike Liut]

Slot 11-15, here we come. Leave it to this team to **** this up in literally every possible manner.

I don’t see how we will be any better than 7th or 8th.

 

[TruBlu]

We will be a prime team to sell at the deadline. A lot of pieces contending teams will want. It's time to start a rebuild if Schenn and Petro aren't willing to sign.

 

[Mike Liut]

Blackhawks suck. No way we out-suck their sorry asses. Already down 2-0 to MTL at home

 

[Evocable Manager]

Blackhawks suck. No way we out-suck their sorry asses. Already down 2-0 to MTL at home

At least MTL is a playoff team.

We just got our asses whooped by the NHL team that has accumulated the worst record over the past like 4 years.

We can absolutely get worse. And honestly, with our mess of a coaching staff and the team seemingly in limbo, I won't be surprised if it does.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Blues playoff quest. Hmmm
When are the next Olympics?

 

[ScratchCatFever]

We will be a prime team to sell at the deadline. A lot of pieces contending teams will want. It's time to start a rebuild if Schenn and Petro aren't willing to sign.

I really hope Schenn wants to re-sign and can take this season with a grain of salt and see the potential moving forward. He has the makeup of a True Blue that fans would love to see playing here for years.

 

[TruBlu]

I really hope Schenn wants to re-sign and can take this season with a grain of salt and see the potential moving forward. He has the makeup of a True Blue that fans would love to see playing here for years.

We need his two way play. He's a step down from ROR, but we can see the forwards on this team have no idea how to play two way hockey. That was fine when they were scoring, except they aren't even doing that now.

 

[MissouriMook]

So, we are now at 28 points with 51 to play. In order to get to the 95 point magic number, we we need to pick up 67 points in those 51 games or roughly a 31-15-5 record. Woof!

 

[Brockon]

Yes we are!! The numbers will be against us very soon.

The Blues have to have an historical December (like the Cardinals' historic August) just to even sniff the playoffs this season.

But this is not going to happen.

Please reference the 2015 run of 20-1-2 courtesy of the Hamburgler in 2015 from mid Feb to mid April. Andrew Hammond captured lighting in a bottom and led his team to a 89.1% point capture rate through the last 23 games of the season...

The numbers are absolutely against us, but it's just highly improbable, not impossible. I don't have faith in Allen to lead us down the stretch and salvage our season any more, but he's certainly streaky enough to ruin our chances at a top 10 pick with a few solid stretches of play...

@Irish Blues I'd be curious to hear how you intend to project our chances at a top 10 pick, given the Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde quality of play we've seen from our boys this season? I know you've already shared a reasonable ballpark target from recent draft history, but we've shown the ability to shutout top 5 teams in the league and be shutout by bottom 5 teams on multiple occasions - how does one compensate for that in a projection?

 

[Saint Loser]

Please reference the 2015 run of 20-1-2 courtesy of the Hamburgler in 2015 from mid Feb to mid April. Andrew Hammond captured lighting in a bottom and led his team to a 89.1% point capture rate through the last 23 games of the season...

The numbers are absolutely against us, but it's just highly improbable, not impossible. I don't have faith in Allen to lead us down the stretch and salvage our season any more, but he's certainly streaky enough to ruin our chances at a top 10 pick with a few solid stretches of play...

@Irish Blues I'd be curious to hear how you intend to project our chances at a top 10 pick, given the Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde quality of play we've seen from our boys this season? I know you've already shared a reasonable ballpark target from recent draft history, but we've shown the ability to shutout top 5 teams in the league and be shutout by bottom 5 teams on multiple occasions - how does one compensate for that in a projection?

You don’t have to remind me of that improbability.

What is the probability of that happening again?

538:1?

 

[ScratchCatFever]

On the playoff quest, here is some perspective.

Right now, the Wild sit in the 2nd wildcard spot with 30 points in 26 games. If they duplicate that pace over their next 26 games they would have 60 points in 52 games and would be on a pace for around 95 points.

In order for the Blues to be tied for the 2nd wildcard spot at the 52 game mark, they need 39 points in their next 27 games. That would take roughly an 18-6-3 record in those 27 games, a pace that would have us tied for first in the league if we had that record right now.

Alternatively, if we keep pace during the middle third of the season, remaining roughly 9 points out of the 2nd wildcard with 27 games to go, we would need a similar run of 39 points in 27 games to tie for that spot. These two points of reference show exactly why teams that are more than a few points out of a playoff spot by this point in the season rarely make the playoffs.