Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[WeWentBlues]

Our goal should now be on winning the Central. What a story that would be. Make NSH and WPG duke it out in the 1st round.

Currently 7 points back of WPG with a game in hand. WPG is slumping right now. Win tonight and we're only 5 points back. Crazy.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Our goal should now be on winning the Central. What a story that would be. Make NSH and WPG duke it out in the 1st round.

Currently 7 points back of WPG with a game in hand. WPG is slumping right now. Win tonight and we're only 5 points back. Crazy.

The crazy thing would be if the Blues somehow pass Winnipeg (who is not playing great lately) and then play Chicago in the 1st round. I could live with that.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Blues have the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams, based on opponent point capture percentage (Blues 53.17%, Predators 54.14%, Jets 56.94%).
All three teams each have 6 back-to-backs remaining.
Blues and Jets have 23 off days between now and the end of the season. The Predators have 25.
Blues have completed season series with Winnipeg and have one game remaining vs. Nashville.
Nashville and Jets have two games left in their season series.

I'll let someone else look up the fancy stats for the Jets and Predators but Blues have been significantly outplaying both teams.

I scoff at some of these recent posts that say the Blues have no chance to catch Nashville or Winnipeg.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

There is some separation between Nashville and Winnipeg. I like that the Blues are aiming for winning the division. It would be a crazy comeback, one for the ages. But it will be tougher to catch the Jets. I actually think it’s likely they pass Nashville now.

 

[TheDizee]

nashville this year is overrated. they are in a similar spot as minnesota was a few years ago where they faded big time down the stretch and got spanked in the first round.

rinne hasnt been that great this year and this is probably his last season before you see a major dropoff in his play. i dont see the preds as much of a threat right now but alot can change in a month+ until the playoffs roll around.

 

[Default]

nashville this year is overrated. they are in a similar spot as minnesota was a few years ago where they faded big time down the stretch and got spanked in the first round.

rinne hasnt been that great this year and this is probably his last season before you see a major dropoff in his play. i dont see the preds as much of a threat right now but alot can change in a month+ until the playoffs roll around.

Agreed. Awaiting to see what they go for at the TDL.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Our goal should now be on winning the Central. What a story that would be. Make NSH and WPG duke it out in the 1st round.

Currently 7 points back of WPG with a game in hand. WPG is slumping right now. Win tonight and we're only 5 points back. Crazy.

Honestly, that's a hell of a lot of energy getting expended and we could end up with a loosey-goosey 1WC team that just lets it all hang out because they've got nothing to lose. Or, we get the WPG-NSH winner and they're already playing desperate playoff hockey and we have to ramp up to that out of an easy 1st-round series. I'd rather get comfortably into a playoff spot, take a breather, let guys rest and get focused, and ramp it up the last game or two so we're mentally and physically ready when the playoffs start, especially if you think Nashville is ripe for the picking and you think this team is better on the road.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 21
Home Games Remaining: 10 [current record at home: 16-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 11 [current record on road: 17-10-3]
Last 10 Games: 9-1-0 [WWWWWWWLW]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: -7 [we sit in 3rd place in the Central, 6 points up on 1WC Dallas and 7 points up on 9th place Minnesota]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 87
Sample Record that would get us to 87 points: 7-12-2

Next 6 Games
2/24 - at Minnesota [29-27-6, 9th in Western Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]
2/26 - vs. Nashville [36-23-5, 2nd in Central Division; 5-4-1 in last 10]
3/1 - at Carolina [33-23-6, 2nd Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 8-2-0 in last 10]
3/2 - vs. Dallas [30-26-5, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 4-5-1 in last 10]
3/6 - at Anaheim [24-29-9, 14th in Western Conference; 3-7-0 in last 10]
3/7 - at Los Angeles [23-32-6, 15th in Western Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]

Points back of Nashville: 6 [with 3 games in hand]
Points back of Winnipeg: 7 [games played even, Winnipeg leads on ROWs, Winnipeg would win on head-to-head]

Minnesota tonight, and then the trade deadline and we can collectively re-evaluate where we think we stand for the stretch run and the playoffs.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 20
Home Games Remaining: 10 [current record at home: 16-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 10 [current record on road: 17-10-4]
Last 10 Games: 8-1-1 [WWWWWWLWO]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: -7 [we sit in 3rd place in the Central, 5 points up on 1WC Dallas and 7 points up on 9th place Colorado]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 87
Sample Record that would get us to 87 points: 7-12-1

Next 5 Games
2/26 - vs. Nashville [36-23-5, 2nd in Central Division; 5-4-1 in last 10]
3/1 - at Carolina [33-23-6, 2nd Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 8-2-0 in last 10]
3/2 - vs. Dallas [31-26-5, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 4-5-1 in last 10]
3/6 - at Anaheim [24-29-9, 14th in Western Conference; 3-7-0 in last 10]
3/7 - at Los Angeles [23-32-6, 15th in Western Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]

Points back of Nashville: 5 [with 2 games in hand, Nashville leads on ROWs]
Points back of Winnipeg: 6 [games played even, Winnipeg leads on ROWs, Winnipeg would win on head-to-head]

 

[542365]

Doug will get a really good idea of where this team stands before the deadline. 10 of our 13 remaining games this month are against playoff teams including 5 against the top teams in the league, Nashville x3, Toronto, and Tampa. Judging those games should give him a clear indication of whether we're really in this thing or not. If we're within striking distance of a playoff spot at the deadline that's great news because the rest of our schedule is very light. Only 4 games the rest of the season against teams I would consider good(Dallas, Pittsburgh, Vegas, and San Jose). Rest of the games are against either objectively bad teams like the Ducks, Kings, Sens etc. or bubble teams like the Avs, Oilers, Yotes. Have to survive February first.

Tonight is our last game of February. 11-1-1 so far. Month officially survived.

If we play at a .625 point percentage the rest of the year(very reasonable given our schedule) we'll finish the year with 97 points. I think that's where we'll end up. That's probably good for third in the Central and matchup against Nashville more than likely.

 

[Brian39]

Pretty much have to win tonight if we want to catch Nashville. Making up 5 points with 3 games in hand is very doable. Trying to make up 9 points with 3 games in hand is a hell of an uphill climb.

Hopefully Vegas can beat Dallas in regulation no matter what we do. It doesn't impact our playoff odds much, but it would be great to see the Ducks hand the Hawks their 3rd straight loss and drive a couple more nails into their playoff coffin.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 19
Home Games Remaining: 9 [current record at home: 17-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 10 [current record on road: 17-10-4]
Last 10 Games: 8-1-1 [WWWWWLWOW]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: -8 [we sit in 3rd place in the Central, 7* points up on 1WC Dallas and 8 points up on 9th place Colorado]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 87
Sample Record that would get us to 87 points: 6-12-1

Next 5 Games
3/1 - at Carolina [34-23-6, 3rd in Metropolitan Division; 8-2-0 in last 10]
3/2 - vs. Dallas [31-26-5, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 4-5-1 in last 10]
3/6 - at Anaheim [24-30-9, 14th in Western Conference; 3-7-0 in last 10]
3/7 - at Los Angeles [23-33-7, 15th in Western Conference; 1-6-3 in last 10]
3/9 - at San Jose [37-19-8, 2nd in Pacific Division; 6-3-1 in last 10]

Points back of Nashville: 5 [with 3 games in hand]
Points back of Winnipeg: 4 [games played even, Winnipeg leads on ROWs, Winnipeg would win on head-to-head]

* this presumes Dallas loses to Vegas [they currently lead 1-0 midway through the 1st]

Regardless, in all likelihood we're getting really close to sealing a playoff spot even if mathematically it won't be clinched for several more games. That said, the fact that now we're closing in on Nashville and Winnipeg for 1st in the division just adds to the ridiculousness that has been this run since January 7. You could not have scripted this and made it remotely believable.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

I said it Thursday. You guys are out of your minds if you are looking at Nashville and Winnipeg. We have to make the playoffs.

 

[Bluesguru]

I’d be stunned if Blues don’t make playoffs. But with Minnesota and Dallas winning, it does put pressure. And we’re only 5 and 6 points up on AZ and CO. A mini losing streak could bubble us again.

 

[BlueDream]

What a fun stretch it'll be in the league though. Just looking at tomorrow, 8 out of the 10 games contain teams fighting to make the playoffs.

 

[Brian39]

I said it Thursday. You guys are out of your minds if you are looking at Nashville and Winnipeg. We have to make the playoffs.

After losing both games over the weekend, the gap between Nashville and the Blues is still smaller than the Blues and the Coyotes in terms of point percentage. Assuming the Blues take 2 points in their 3 games in hand, they will be 5 points shy of Nashville. They are currently 5 points up on the Coyotes with the same number of games played. So from a pure points standpoint, we would be exactly in the middle of 'catching Nashville' and 'missing the playoffs.' However, we are just 2 ROWs shy of Nashville but 5 up on the Coyotes, so we are closer to winning the tie break for 2nd than losing the tiebreak for missing the playoffs.

In other words, this team is closer to catching Nashville than missing the playoffs if it goes 1-2 or 0-1-2 in its 3 games in hand on the Preds.

The 3C or a WC spot are still the likeliest 3 outcomes, but catching Nashville is still just as (or more) likely than missing the playoffs.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

I said it Thursday. You guys are out of your minds if you are looking at Nashville and Winnipeg. We have to make the playoffs.

BUMP.

 

[Rarename91]

BUMP.

the stars winning last night did some good likely saved our post season hopes i believe every time in a playoffs spot in west at this moment will make the playoffs just depends where the wild arent that much of a threat either.

 

[mk80]

I think we'll make playoffs, personally I don't think we'll ever make it into a spot that would give us home ice advantage, so really whether we finish 3rd in the division or last wild card I don't care, as long as we finish in a playoff spot.

 

[Brian39]

BUMP.

It's neat that you want to be all holier than thou based on a couple losses, but you may want to check the standings. We are currently further away from missing the playoffs than we were when you made that post you just bumped. We are still 5 points up on the team that would have to bump us from the playoffs, except we now have a game in hand on that team instead of having played the same number of games. Meanwhile, we have gained a point on Nashville (we are 6 points back instead of the 7 points back we were on March 3). We have one fewer game in hand on them than we did at the time, but a .500 points percentage in our games in hand would have meant gaining ground on them,, which is what we have done in the interim. Almost like catching the Preds was more likely than missing the playoffs, even though finishing somewhere between those 2 options was the most likely outcome.

Cool of you to ignore that until you (incorrectly) thought that things had changed.

 

[BlueDream]

Anddd we just passed Dallas again.

 

[542365]

Avs lose in regulation after being up 2-0 on the Ducks. Their season is over. 4 wins in our final 12 games likely gets us in the playoffs. It’s almost a certainty at this point even though the team isn’t playing well.

 

[Brockon]

Anddd we just passed Dallas again.

With Dallas having the ROW tie breaker in their favour, we need to get 1 point (or more) from our game in hand and match their points through 11 more games.

The whole points percentage moving teams that are tied in standing points is somewhat misleading...

Our odds of outpacing Dallas tdecrease the longer Perron and Tarasenko are out. Our secondary scoring isn't there right now (neither is our top line scoring for that matter...), it makes holding onto 3rd in the Central doubtful if VT91 isn't back sooner than he's expected to return (another 5 days, which is 3 more games).

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

With Dallas having the ROW tie breaker in their favour, we need to get 1 point (or more) from our game in hand and match their points through 11 more games.

The whole points percentage moving teams that are tied in standing points is somewhat misleading...

Our odds of outpacing Dallas tdecrease the longer Perron and Tarasenko are out. Our secondary scoring isn't there right now (neither is our top line scoring for that matter...), it makes holding onto 3rd in the Central doubtful if VT91 isn't back sooner than he's expected to return (another 5 days, which is 3 more games).

You could make the same argument about Dallas without Bishop. It’s going to be a dogfight.

 

[BlueDream]

With Dallas having the ROW tie breaker in their favour, we need to get 1 point (or more) from our game in hand and match their points through 11 more games.

The whole points percentage moving teams that are tied in standing points is somewhat misleading...

Our odds of outpacing Dallas tdecrease the longer Perron and Tarasenko are out. Our secondary scoring isn't there right now (neither is our top line scoring for that matter...), it makes holding onto 3rd in the Central doubtful if VT91 isn't back sooner than he's expected to return (another 5 days, which is 3 more games).

Yeah well looking at ROW when there's still 12 games left is pretty irrelevant too but that won't stop people from acting like the sky is falling.