Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[CoverYour5]

I think we can still absolutely finish 8 of still miss. Key injury to ROR, Tarasenko, Parayko, or Binnington would leave a massive hole in the lineup. I don't have faith in Allen to make a run like in 2017.

Here we go.

Edit: phew.

 

[TerminatorBlue]

No chance we finish 8th anymore.


The Hawks suck no matter what run they go on. The #1 seed losing to any of Minnesota, Colorado, Chicago or Vancouver would be embarrassing.

We are so jinxed now! If we miss out now YOU are totally to blame.

Seriously though even a month or so ago us making the playoffs was almost unbelievable.

 

[Default]

1st place isn't that far out of reality, boys

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 25
Home Games Remaining: 12 [current record at home: 14-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 13 [current record on road: 15-9-3]
Last 10 Games: 9-1-0 [LWWWWWWWW]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: -6 [we sit in 3rd place in the Central; 2 points up on 1WC Dallas and 6 points up on 9th place Vancouver.]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 87
Sample Record that would get us to 87 points: 11-12-2

Remaining Games in February
2/17 - at Minnesota [27-25-6, 2nd Wild Card in Western Conference; 3-4-3 in last 10]
2/19 - vs. Toronto [36-19-3, 3rd in Northeast Division; 7-2-1 in last 10]
2/21 - at Dallas [29-24-5, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 6-3-1 in last 10]
2/23 - vs. Boston [34-17-8, 2nd in Northeast Division; 7-0-3 in last 10]
2/24 - at Minnesota
2/26 - vs. Nashville [34-22-5, 2nd in Central Division; 5-4-1 in last 10]

Before Vancouver plays again, we could be as much as 10 points up on them. For those wanting to really dream big,
-- We're 11 points back of Winnipeg with 2 games in hand
-- We're 12 points back of San Jose with 2 games in hand
-- We're 12 points back of Calgary with a game in hand

 

[Itsnotatrap]

3 road games against bubble teams that can hurt us, and not only win all 3, but don’t give up a single goal. Truly amazing stuff.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Here’s a look at Winnipeg’s remaining schedule. It looks kinda brutal, and if we finish the year playing well and they slump at all...we could very well win the Central...

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

"Tracking this thread title--LOL"

 

[Default]

Catching Winnipeg and Nashville aren't realistic btw.

Ha

 

[Stealth JD]

"Tracking this thread title--LOL"

I'm totally in favor of leaving the LOL. Just like the Caps last year, nobody expects anything of the Blues in the playoffs. The more LOL the better for our chances at a title, as far as i'm concerned.

Catching Winnipeg and Nashville aren't realistic btw.

Ha

Making up 7 points against an average team is tough. Making up 7 points on a very good team is probably unrealistic unless the Blues put up something stupid like 20 wins over their final 24 games. I think they finish 2nd to WPG.

 

[Brian39]

I don't see us having any realistic chance of catching San Jose, Calgary or Winnipeg. Those teams are still 9 and 10 points up on us with either the same number of games played or only 1 more game played. That's a big gap to make up on teams who are unlikely to finish below .500 over the remaining games. With that said, catching Nashville is completely realistic. I wouldn't say it is more likely than not, but it is certainly doable. Making up 6 points with 3 games in hand is absolutely realistic and Nashville hasn't been setting the world on fire lately.

Don't look now but we are suddenly just 1 point back of Vegas with 2 games in hand. A month ago we were talking about a clear top 5 in the West that had Winnipeg, Nashville, Calgary, SJ, and Vegas as clearly above the rest of the pack. With our recent play, you either need to expand that to a top 6 or swap us out with Vegas. Our goal differential is suddenly +12 (Vegas is +11) and the next closest team is Dallas at -4. Amazing how 3 straight shutouts helps that number.

I don't see us finishing at the WC2 spot anymore. We're currently 7 points up on that spot with a game in hand and Minnesota is in complete free fall. We're 8 points up on the 9th place team (Vancouver) with 2 games in hand and they are also struggling lately. We're 10+ points up on everyone else. We're not going to win every game like we have been for the last 10 games, but I don't think the wheels are going to fall off. The underlying numbers have been great for over 2 straight months, so I don't think we're experience a huge amount of 'luck' that will suddenly shift. At this point, I would be surprised if we finish anywhere besides C2, C3 or WC1. Unbelievable considering our spot in the standings 6 weeks ago.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

Dom’s model at The Athletic has us at 96% now.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 23
Home Games Remaining: 12 [current record at home: 14-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 11 [current record on road: 17-9-3]
Last 11 Games: 11-0-0 [WWWWWWWWWWW]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: -10 [we sit in 3rd place in the Central; 6 points up on 1WC Dallas and 10 points up on 9th place Colorado.]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 87
Sample Record that would get us to 87 points: 9-12-2

Remaining Games in February
2/21 - at Dallas [29-25-5, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 5-4-1 in last 10]
2/23 - vs. Boston [35-17-8, 2nd in Northeast Division; 8-0-2 in last 10]
2/24 - at Minnesota [27-27-6, 2nd Wild Card in Western Conference; 1-6-3 in last 10]
2/26 - vs. Nashville [35-22-5, 2nd in Central Division; 5-4-1 in last 10]

Points back of Nashville: 6 [with 3 games in hand]
Points back of Winnipeg: 7 [games played even, Winnipeg leads on ROWs, Winnipeg would win on head-to-head]

 

[JoshFromMO]

I love seeing that sample record banging less and less wins required to make playoffs, what an unreal turnaround since January

 

[Novacain]

Well, that was probably 2 points we should have had if we wanted to keep this realistic.

Games Remaining: 45
Home Games Remaining: 18 [current record at home: 9-11-2]
Road Games Remaining: 27 [current record on road: 6-7-2]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 10 [not factoring in tie-breakers]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 93
Sample Record that would get us to target: 28-14-3

Next 5 Games:
1/3/19 - vs. Washington [24-11-3, 1st in Metropolitan; 8-2-0 in last 10]
1/5/19 - vs. NY Islanders [21-13-4, 1st Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 7-2-1 in last 10]
1/7/19 - at Philadelphia [15-18-5, 14th in Eastern Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]
1/8/19 - vs. Dallas [20-16-3, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 4-6-0 in last 10]
1/10/19 - vs. Montreal [20-14-5, 9th in Eastern Conference; 6-4-0 in last 10]

That's 107.5 point pace for those interested. And remember, after the 10th we have 9 of the next 10, 13 of the next 16, and 19 of the next 26 on the road - meaning we won't be balanced on H/A again until March 9 after we play in San Jose.

ADD: Dallas lost to Montreal but in OT. We are officially double digit points out of a playoff spot and even in the but we have games in hand scenario we are still out 5 because of the tiebreak. And let's be real, given how we've been picking up points were not getting 6 from 3.

I am bumping this post for one reason. This was posted New Years Eve. We were 10 points out of the 8 seed. We now have a 10'point lead over he line to drop from the playoffs. It's less then 2 months later.

 

[Brian39]

I was hoping Dallas could take one in regulation from Nashville last night, because my sights are set on that #2 seed in the Central. However, the silver linings from Nashville winning are that they did it in regulation and we now have a 6 point cushion on the 1st Wild Card spot.

Don't look now, but I think the Hawks are going to make the playoffs. Pretty remarkable since they were dead last in the NHL on January 19. It would be absolutely insane if 2 teams make the playoffs who were dead last in the NHL (by points) in the month of January.

 

[BlueDream]

I was hoping Dallas could take one in regulation from Nashville last night, because my sights are set on that #2 seed in the Central. However, the silver linings from Nashville winning are that they did it in regulation and we now have a 6 point cushion on the 1st Wild Card spot.

Don't look now, but I think the Hawks are going to make the playoffs. Pretty remarkable since they were dead last in the NHL on January 19. It would be absolutely insane if 2 teams make the playoffs who were dead last in the NHL (by points) in the month of January.

And we're still only 6 points behind Nashville with 3 games in hand. I can see us catching them.

But yeah, I agree on Chicago. I thought Minnesota would at least remain decent enough to hold onto that spot but they are just awful. Chicago passes them with a win tonight. It's hard to imagine any other team grabbing hold of that spot. Kane probably leads the 'Hawks to it.

... which, as another poster mentioned, actually isn't a bad thing for us. Keeps them out of the Hughes sweepstakes and I doubt they go anywhere in the playoffs but if they were to upset a top seed, that'd be great.

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

Dom’s model at The Athletic has us at 96% now.

View attachment 188361

It's..... Beautiful.

 

[Brian39]

And we're still only 6 points behind Nashville with 3 games in hand. I can see us catching them.

But yeah, I agree on Chicago. I thought Minnesota would at least remain decent enough to hold onto that spot but they are just awful. Chicago passes them with a win tonight. It's hard to imagine any other team grabbing hold of that spot. Kane probably leads the 'Hawks to it.

... which, as another poster mentioned, actually isn't a bad thing for us. Keeps them out of the Hughes sweepstakes and I doubt they go anywhere in the playoffs but if they were to upset a top seed, that'd be great.

Absolutely we can. I was just hoping it would be 4 points behind with 3 games in hand

But as we stand right now, we pull dead even if we beat them in regulation next week and get 4 points out of those 3 games in hand. The gap between us and them is much closer than the 6 points suggests.

 

[TheDizee]

i hope they dont get home ice. team plays much better on the road this year.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I am bumping this post for one reason. This was posted New Years Eve. We were 10 points out of the 8 seed. We now have a 10'point lead over he line to drop from the playoffs. It's less then 2 months later.

Yeah, I don't think any of even the most optimistic "we can get to the playoffs" people thought that would happen.

 

[Ranksu]

I love seeing that sample record banging less and less wins required to make playoffs, what an unreal turnaround since January

I dont remember who told it, but team(s) who start to win games end of January or mid February are going to be hard compete against at playoffs.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Yeah, I don't think any of even the most optimistic "we can get to the playoffs" people thought that would happen.

No, I thought they would be a wildcard team playing hot with a chance to upset a division winner. I still think they could, but it will be in the 2nd round. Nashville is looking increasingly vulnerable, both on the ice and in the standings. I'm not sure it matters a lot about getting home ice, but I would prefer not to have to listen to those stupid abusive chants, so I hope the Blues pass them, just for one less game of that crap. Something very unusual would have to happen at this point for the Blues not to end up playing Nashville in the first round. (But now as unusual as what has already happened.)

I've taken a lot of crap about being optimistic. But I felt the team was turning things around. (Who knew the rest of the West would struggle so much?) The game in Dallas, where I got to see the players in warm ups in person was the first time I felt really confident they'd make the playoffs. They just were so loose and CONFIDENT. It was strange to see, but it was clear to me that the PLAYERS believed they were going to get in the playoffs before the fans felt that way. And if you listen closely, the players are talking about making it to the SCF. I'm not saying its probable, its never probable even for the top contenders. But I'm saying that the Blues think they can do it with this team. A team with that kind of belief is a tough out in the first round.

The rest of the season will be a joy to watch, regardless of how it all shakes out. The Blues are playing entertaining hockey again, and there is a tight playoff race to enjoy.

I'm not sure why we have attracted trolls like that Pizza Pizza guy trying to make a case for trading Tarasenko NOW, and bemoaning how the Blues aren't a favorite for the Cup. But that's just not how the playoffs work. You don't wait to take your best shot when you have everything perfect. You just get a ticket and get in, and fight like hell. Teams will have injuries. Goalies will get into funks or go on streaks. No name players will score multiple goals (Smith Pelley was a SCF hero, and now he's on waivers.) The Blues at this point have as good a case for making the SCF as almost every other team in the West. They'll have to get past Winnipeg to do it, and Nashville before that. Those battles will be a blast to watch. I would not put money down against the Blues.

 

[Novacain]

Yeah, I don't think any of even the most optimistic "we can get to the playoffs" people thought that would happen.

It's also absurd. If we went just 5-5-0 in our last 10 we would still be in the playoffs. The rest of th West has basically handed it to us, but we jus keep winning anyway and how are one of the top 5 teams in the West. Which is where we thought we would be to begin with.

 

[Brockon]

No, I thought they would be a wildcard team playing hot with a chance to upset a division winner. I still think they could, but it will be in the 2nd round. Nashville is looking increasingly vulnerable, both on the ice and in the standings. I'm not sure it matters a lot about getting home ice, but I would prefer not to have to listen to those stupid abusive chants, so I hope the Blues pass them, just for one less game of that crap. Something very unusual would have to happen at this point for the Blues not to end up playing Nashville in the first round. (But now as unusual as what has already happened.)

I've taken a lot of crap about being optimistic. But I felt the team was turning things around. (Who knew the rest of the West would struggle so much?) The game in Dallas, where I got to see the players in warm ups in person was the first time I felt really confident they'd make the playoffs. They just were so loose and CONFIDENT. It was strange to see, but it was clear to me that the PLAYERS believed they were going to get in the playoffs before the fans felt that way. And if you listen closely, the players are talking about making it to the SCF. I'm not saying its probable, its never probable even for the top contenders. But I'm saying that the Blues think they can do it with this team. A team with that kind of belief is a tough out in the first round.

The rest of the season will be a joy to watch, regardless of how it all shakes out. The Blues are playing entertaining hockey again, and there is a tight playoff race to enjoy.

I'm not sure why we have attracted trolls like that Pizza Pizza guy trying to make a case for trading Tarasenko NOW, and bemoaning how the Blues aren't a favorite for the Cup. But that's just not how the playoffs work. You don't wait to take your best shot when you have everything perfect. You just get a ticket and get in, and fight like hell. Teams will have injuries. Goalies will get into funks or go on streaks. No name players will score multiple goals (Smith Pelley was a SCF hero, and now he's on waivers.) The Blues at this point have as good a case for making the SCF as almost every other team in the West. They'll have to get past Winnipeg to do it, and Nashville before that. Those battles will be a blast to watch. I would not put money down against the Blues.

Pizza Pizza has been hovering around our forum since December, as best I can recall, though it may have been since the Yeo firing.

His views, don't necessarily jive with my views, in that I think Skinner would be a huge mistake in a Tarasenko trade (I'm foreseeing a drop off in his goalscoring totals next year, after signing a big new contract). Though his sentiment about at least exploring a Tarasenko trade prior to his NTC kicking in on July 1st isn't without merits. I'd say the list of players I'd consider targets is pretty short (and potentially unreasonable) like a Marner, Point or Debrincat where Tank's current contract is a needed commodity over the returning budding star's upside and younger age.

This said, I don't believe Tarasenko is traded, as he is arguably the face of the franchise and has been one of the hottest players in the league over the past month.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

If you're gonna trade Tarasenko, it should be when he's hot as opposed to when every other fan gets down because he isn't scoring and wants to ship him off "before everyone realizes he's terrible now" or whatever. That said, the only way you are winning a Tarasenko trade is by getting a better player than him in return or getting extremely lucky and having a package of a bunch of 'stuff' turn in to good players for you. And as I already said in the other thread, superstar for superstar trades just aren't that likely. Subban for Weber is tough to pull off and generally one GM ends up looking like a moron.

He's on a good contract, he likes it here, he's very talented, he sells jerseys, he gives us a Russian connection. He isn't going anywhere.