Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Offense/Forwards

[Fogelhund]

Such originality

I'm a Leafs fans... we haven't made it out of round one the last three years. Pre-season awards, for the beauty of a roster aren't worth much. Let's see some playoff success.

 

[Holymakinaw]

The one that scored 319 goals last season with minimal turnover?

With their top three guys having unsustainably high shooting percentages?

Point 21.5%
Stamkos 19.2%
Kucherov 16.7%

Look for Tampa to return to more "normal" averages, and score a lot less goals this year. Last year was impressive, no doubt. But not sustainable.

For that reason, I pick Toronto.

 

[Krewe]

With their top three guys having unsustainably high shooting percentages?

Point 21.5%
Stamkos 19.2%
Kucherov 16.7%

Look for Tampa to return to more "normal" averages, and score a lot less goals this year. Last year was impressive, no doubt. But not sustainable.

Stamkos is a career 17% shooter and Kucherov is a career 15% shooter. Point his previous two years shot 15%. So the only one set to regress by much is Point, who is still a decent bet for 14-15%

All three are in the top 12 for career shooting %'s, so its wrong to expect them to shoot league average numbers, when only once between their 20 combined seasons have any of them shot worse than 12%, and only twice below 14%

Also is Tavares due for a 3% regression to his career numbers as well? That is a larger difference than Stamkos or Kucherov

EDIT: Here are their career shooting %s BEFORE last season (so these stats are deflated somewhat compared to their career numbers). Does this seem like a group due for a large regression? Or is it more likely they all shoot somewhere around 15-16%?

 

[tony d]

Tampa

 

[Incognito]

Tampa and the Leafs have the two best forward crops in the league, in that order.

 

[StoneHands]

Brayden Look is out so Toronto

No Kadri, Marleau, Hyman, or Brown so Tampa.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

No Kadri, Marleau, Hyman, or Brown so Tampa.

Bayden points loss actually matters in Tampa.

Toronto has replaced every player you mentioned, either by moving guys up or finding replacements

 

[Krewe]

Bayden points loss actually matters in Tampa.

Toronto has replaced every player you mentioned, either by moving guys up or finding replacements

"Loss" He was cleared for contact already. He won't be out for more than a week or two at most. Also the OP question says HEALTHY rosters, which means your point is moot (and also means people can't troll about AM)

 

[StoneHands]

Bayden points loss actually matters in Tampa.

Toronto has replaced every player you mentioned, either by moving guys up or finding replacements

Yes, roster spots obviously have to be filled but it doesn't mean they will make up for their production. There are 53 goals lost from Kadri, Marleau, and Hyman. Assuming that guys like Spezza (8 goals last season), Kerfoot (15 goals last season), and Shore or some rookie is going to make that up is a little naive. Are you also just assuming that Point misses the entire season or something? Even if he misses a month which is longer than expected,what do they lose 6-10 goals from him? Tampa scored 33 more goals last season, is that loss really going to tip the scales?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yes, roster spots obviously have to be filled but it doesn't mean they will make up for their production. There are 53 goals lost from Kadri, Marleau, and Hyman. Assuming that guys like Spezza (8 goals last season), Kerfoot (15 goals last season), and Shore or some rookie is going to make that up is a little naive. Are you also just assuming that Point misses the entire season or something? Even if he misses a month which is longer than expected,what do they lose 6-10 goals from him? Tampa scored 33 more goals last season, is that loss really going to tip the scales?

I'm perrty sure Kapanen can replace Hyman's production for 3 weeks, in fact I would suggest to you the top 6 is better with Kapanen than Hyman.

I like Brown A LOT but his goal scoring wasn't the reasons he had 9 goals that can be replaced.

Kadri had 2 more pounds than Kerfot and Kadri was on the Leafs #1 PP unit

Marleau was GREAT in year 1, he didn't have it last year.

The Leafs Disney lose much.

 

[StoneHands]

I'm perrty sure Kapanen can replace Hyman's production for 3 weeks, in fact I would suggest to you the top 6 is better with Kapanen than Hyman.

I like Brown A LOT but his goal scoring wasn't the reasons he had 9 goals that can be replaced.

Kadri had 2 more pounds than Kerfot and Kadri was on the Leafs #1 PP unit

Marleau was GREAT in year 1, he didn't have it last year.

The Leafs Disney lose much.

Uhh, Kapanen was on the team last year. You can't replace one players production with another player who was already on the team. If that's your argument, who's going to replace Kapanen's production?

Anyway, you seem to think Point missing a few weeks is somehow going to bridge a 33 goal gap from last year. That's a hard sell.

 

[Pyrophorus]

If "Matthews missed a chunk of the season" going to be an excuse every season for his entire career, it's going to be tiresome.

...but not his first

the ONLY difference between TB and Tor were the special teams.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Stamkos is a career 17% shooter and Kucherov is a career 15% shooter. Point his previous two years shot 15%. So the only one set to regress by much is Point, who is still a decent bet for 14-15%

All three are in the top 12 for career shooting %'s, so its wrong to expect them to shoot league average numbers, when only once between their 20 combined seasons have any of them shot worse than 12%, and only twice below 14%

Also is Tavares due for a 3% regression to his career numbers as well? That is a larger difference than Stamkos or Kucherov

EDIT: Here are their career shooting %s BEFORE last season (so these stats are deflated somewhat compared to their career numbers). Does this seem like a group due for a large regression? Or is it more likely they all shoot somewhere around 15-16%?

So according to your own numbers, for the "bigger offensive weapons"....

TAMPA
- Point should fall around 6-7%
- Stamkos should fall around 2.2%
- Kucherov should fall around 1.7%
- Tyler Johnson should fall around 4.4%

Makes sense.

LEAFS
- Tavares should fall 3%
- Matthews should RISE almost 1%
- Marner should stay around the same
- Nylander should RISE around 4.4%

I never once said that Tampa isn't a great team. I only said that the number of goals they scored last year was not sustainable.

And looking at the trends of the top four offensive threats on each team.......I think I'm right.

 

[Pyrophorus]

"Loss" He was cleared for contact already. He won't be out for more than a week or two at most. Also the OP question says HEALTHY rosters, which means your point is moot (and also means people can't troll about AM)

Then 21g Hyman can be included too.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Tampa doesn’t get to the front of the net very well and given that, I don’t like their chances at replicating the kind of shooting performance that they had last year. Toronto had some unsustainable shooting results from guys like Rielly/Marner/Tavares but as a whole, they’re much more likely to sustain their offensive performance than Tampa Bay.

 

[Mr Tadakichi]

Tampa doesn’t get to the front of the net very well and given that, I don’t like their chances at replicating the kind of shooting performance that they had last year. Toronto had some unsustainable shooting results from guys like Rielly/Marner/Tavares but as a whole, they’re much more likely to sustain their offensive performance than Tampa Bay.

For some reason the second pic doesn't link to a pic, it's just a thumbnail. Just letting you know or it's something wrong on my side.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

For some reason the second pic doesn't link to a pic, it's just a thumbnail. Just letting you know or it's something wrong on my side.

I think it’s should work better now?

 

[Mr Tadakichi]

I think it’s should work better now?

Ah much better, thank you man.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Ah much better, thank you man.

What do you think of the post content?

 

[Mr Tadakichi]

What do you think of the post content?

Surprising tbh, considering the heavy offence from TB. Although, maybe I shouldn't be, TB doesn't seem like a team heavy on the net crashers.

 

[mattydamon]

Tampa first but I would definitely have Leafs 2nd, both very scary forward groups.

 

[IPS]

Toronto no doubt. They don't need to rely on unsustainable high SH%. Easily the best forward group in the league.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Tampa has the better top 3, and the better depth, so IMO Tampa clearly (and before someone is pissed, clearly doesn't mean AINEC, it just means there is separation)

Matthews >= Point (Matthews is better offensively for sure, but Point is also much better defensively)
Kucherov >> Marner (This is the only one that isn't close)
Stamkos = Tavares (Stamkos is a better shooter, but Tavares is probably a better playmaker and play driver)

Depth I would give to tampa now that Kadri is gone. Nylander is better than any of Tampa's depth players, but we have a large number of 20g/40p guys on the second and third lines

Tbf toronto has 40 point players in hyman,johnson and kappy too. If anything I like tampas top end players better and the leafs depth players better.

 

[thethirdhockeyman91]

This is the way i see it as a neutral. Neither leafs or lighting fan
Point= Matthews
Kucherov> Marner
Tavares= Stamkos
Johnson>Nylander (until nylander proves it)
Gourde>Kapanen
Palat=Johnsson
Cirelli>Kerfoot

The rest who cares

 

[CupsOverCash]

I think its close. I think Toronto could improve while I think TB will likely regress but regression from them I think anybody would say because they had an amazing regular season last year and even a little regression is still way better than most teams out there. And still could be better than Toronto. Ill give it to TB until Toronto proves otherwise.