Signing(s): [TOR] Justin Smoak (2 years, 8.25 mil total) 6 mil option 2019

[sparxx87]

Dickey was bad in April and May. He did pick it up in June and parts of July but still has the occasional terrible outing like yesterday. The past two seasons he really picked it up from June onwards with minimal bad outings. We will see if he can repeat that this year.

Right now his FIP is horrible - over 5.00. He needs to be better if this team wants to win the division.

That's not surprising considering he's a knuckleballer. From what I know it's very much a feel pitch and it seems to take him a handful of starts to get the feel right. I'm far from a fan, but you can't argue that he's been pretty solid overall, and was very solid the second half of last year as well.

The Jays shopping list shouldn't have a starter on it unless they move Sanchez to the pen or someone gets hurt. I'm quite happy with Estrada, Happ, Sanchez and Dickey. If they're looking at arms it'll be for the back end of the bullpen to bump Storen and Cecil down.... Chapman, if they can make a deal without further depleting the farm, would be top of my list.

 

[King Mapes]

Dickey was bad in April and May. He did pick it up in June and parts of July but still has the occasional terrible outing like yesterday. The past two seasons he really picked it up from June onwards with minimal bad outings. We will see if he can repeat that this year.

Right now his FIP is horrible - over 5.00. He needs to be better if this team wants to win the division.

May wasn't bad. Mostly April and he is bad in April EVERY year.

Of course he has occasional bad outings. He's human and not an elite pitcher.

 

[darko]

Sanchez is going to the pen.

Not sure Estrada/Happ/Stroman/Dickey gets it done in postseason. I have my doubts.

 

[Scrub*]

The thing is even if we get another good profile pitcher their is doubts with that too, we get Price last year and he struggled in the playoffs. Just get to the playoffs, everything that happens in them is a crapshoot.

 

[darko]

The thing is even if we get another good profile pitcher their is doubts with that too, we get Price last year and he struggled in the playoffs. Just get to the playoffs, everything that happens in them is a crapshoot.

I think someone like Shoemaker makes a lot of sense for the Jays.

 

[Scrub*]

I think someone like Shoemaker makes a lot of sense for the Jays.

Stats look ok, about average with good K/bb and FIP. Arb eligible and under team control until 2019. Could replace Dickey in the rotation if he signs elsewhere or retires.

 

[robert terwilliger]

gonna cost them for shoemaker if the padres got what they got for pomeranz.

 

[darko]

gonna cost them for shoemaker if the padres got what they got for pomeranz.

That was also a case of Dombrowski doing what he's known which is overpaying.

Either way Shoemaker would cost them a good prospect. At least he wouldn't be a rental.

 

[darko]

Stats look ok, about average with good K/bb and FIP. Arb eligible and under team control until 2019. Could replace Dickey in the rotation if he signs elsewhere or retires.

Take out his April and stats look pretty good.

 

[sparxx87]

Sanchez is going to the pen.

Not sure Estrada/Happ/Stroman/Dickey gets it done in postseason. I have my doubts.

That was the plan, but I've also heard reports suggesting they'll look for signs of fatigue and let him go until then.

They've babied him enough. Let him play now.

 

[Virtanen18]

Could someone name all these better replacements than Justin Smoak?

You want the Jays picking up waiver players to play first base when we're going for playoffs.

Or a random minor leaguer and the thought somehow is that they would automatically be replacement level or better.

Won't these replacememnts have a big risk of costing the team wins?

I'm finding it hard to argue Smoak as being better than any replacement level player though.

 

[Scrub*]

I'm finding it hard to argue Smoak as being better than any replacement level player though.

Which replacement player would it be though?

Out of 45 first baseman in the MLB with 150 at bats, Smoak ranks 29th in fWAR at 0.2. Some dh players are included in these ranks like Encarnacion. To jump up to the top 15 you're looking at adding only 1 fwar in performance.(things could change by season end of course)

But more to your point you can go after a prospect replacement, am not sure our prospects should go towards 1st baseman right now, you could get a waiver pick up player that has various issues, like injuries and what not or you could get the AAAA type player in the minors that you think can replace said player but really they cant. Only other players out there are below replacement level, the overpaid ones that are declining, like Pujols, Howard, Teixera and we simply cannot afford inexperienced players or declining players that would likely cost the team more wins.

We're also getting the 2nd best production from DH this year in the MLB(Boston is 1st) and that kind of compensates for a replacement level first baseman.

Basically their are a handful of first baseman comparable to Smoak in value(fwar) that would be lateral moves , not much improvement but how reliable are they, do they cost less than 4 million, what do we have to give up, things like that.

 

[Scrub*]

If the Jays lost Smoak and end up losing Edwin and Bautista to free agency that would leave us with Colabello as a first baseman next year , but he's another player that comes with some uncertainty now. Then here are the other first baseman available as free agents after this season:

Pedro Alvarez - costs more than Smoak
Ike Davis - less productive than Smoak
Edwin Encarnacion - may sign elsewhere
Adam LaRoche - costs more than Smoak
Adam Lind - declining, platoon player
James Loney - similar player to Smoak, slighty more expensive
Justin Morneau - injury concerns, may cost less than Smoak.
Kendrys Morales * has a team option that will be picked up
Mitch Moreland - costs more than SMoak
Brandon Moss-costs more than SMoak
Mike Napoli-cost more than smoak
David Ortiz * retiring
Carlos Santana * costs more than Smoak
Nick Swisher - declining
Mark Teixera - declining

You could argue that a platoon of Smoak and Colabello has a chance to work again next year and cost about 5-6 million total hopefully we can keep our free agents except Storen.