Ford Prefect
Registered User
With the draft positions in the bottom 16 set, I am looking at the teams and think this is going to be a fascinating draft. I know, the vogue list is top 10, but considering who is drafting at 11, I included one more. The bottom four teams in the draft are not trading their picks, except in the infinitesimal possibility of dropping down a few positions to snare some extra assets. Afterwards everything opens up. Consider the teams in those positions:
5. Utah (still feels weird): They've accumulated so many prospects over the last few years and still have 7 picks in the first three round this year (13 in total), and 13 picks in the top 2 rounds over the next three years. They have a ton of cap room, and may be poised to seriously turn the corner after seemingly being in a rebuild the last 10 years. With the ammo they have accumulated (including their #5 pick this year) and their move to a new location (probably want to make a big splash), I can see them as one of the most likely teams in the top 10 to use their pick to go big game hunting. They may draft and use the combination of their futures, but I don't see them keeping the pick.
6. Montreal: Also has accumulated a deep prospect pool in the last few years. A lot of depth, a lot of supporting characters, but no real star players (outside of maybe Slakofsky) developing. They're very deep in defence prospects but bare in scoring. If the top 2 go Celebrini and Demidov, there is no real high end offensive talent left. Given all their top prospects are on defence, I don't think they're looking to draft another and this draft has plenty of them at the top. They have five first rounders in the next 3 drafts and not enough room for them all. Hughs has a record of using picks to accumulate established assets at the draft. I can see them putting together a strong package together to try and get to 2 for Demidov (very unlikely) or use a combination of their surplus D and the pick to get a first line scorer. I think they move the pick, but wouldn't be surprised if the go BPA and use the player in a future transaction.
7. Ottawa: They don't have the draft capital as the two above, but have the benefit of having more stars on their team. Tkachuk and Stutzle are only entering their primes, and with Norris and Batherson they have a good, young top 6. Sanderson looks to be a stud and Chabot and Chychrun give them three top 4 offensive defencemen. Given the depth that there is in D, I can certainly see them drafting D and using Chychrun or Chabot to shore up elsewhere. They have almost 13 million in cap space with no notable RFAs or UFAs needing new contracts. The season was a major disappointment, given how strong the team expected to be. I don't see them moving the pick, but I also don't see them married to it.
8. Seattle: They made the playoffs last year, but regressed this year. Beniers had a poor season relative to his talent and progression. I'm not very familiar with their prospect pool but their roster has a lot of just meh. I don't see them moving the pick at all. Despite their good season last year, I think Francis will stay the course. They'll keep their pick.
9. Calgary: They have 4 picks in the next three years. I see some people saying that they're going to retool, I see some saying they're going to keep going for it given the players they have signed to long extensions. They may want to grab some talent for their d-corps or get a top 6 center if they want to reset on the fly. They have 18.7 million in cap space to try to replace Hanafin, Tanev or Lindholm. The UFA pool looks pedestrian; top UFAs are wingers (Lindholm is the only true top 6 center avalable), though they could pick up a Pesce or Montour or DeMelo. I don't see them trading it, unless there's pressure from ownership to return to playoff contention.
10: New Jersey: Would never have guessed they'd be picking here when the season started. They're set up the middle with J. Hughes possibly having the best value in the league. Having a franchise center locked down for the next 6 years at 8 million??? They have the makings of a great d-corps led by Hamilton, Hughes and Nemec. With their 21 million in cap space, they could certainly be bolstered in free agency (though Mercer, Hughes and Nemec will need deals in the next few years). They're not going into next season with Jake Allen as their #1, though. Is this the currency they use to get Markstrom out of Calgary? I can see them trading the pick.
11. Buffalo: I think the likeliest team to this point to trade for a veteran established player. They have a lot of offensive firepower in their lineup and their farm system, they won't be able to keep them all. With Dahlin, Power and Byram there for the long term, they have a great top 4 going forward. The consensus is that it's just a matter of time before Levi is a true number one. I don't see any obvious holes in their lineup. They are a team of chronic underachievers who could really use a stabilizing presence in their lineup. It's more probable that they trade the pick than keep it.
Of the teams in the top 11, I think as many as six teams that could move them. The value of the picks depends on the quality of prospect available. Obviously the lower the pick, the more probable it could be traded. My impression from listening to some draft gurus is that there is a top 13-15 and then a notable drop-off.
What teams in the top 11 do you see making their picks available? What player or position do you see them targeting in exchange?
5. Utah (still feels weird): They've accumulated so many prospects over the last few years and still have 7 picks in the first three round this year (13 in total), and 13 picks in the top 2 rounds over the next three years. They have a ton of cap room, and may be poised to seriously turn the corner after seemingly being in a rebuild the last 10 years. With the ammo they have accumulated (including their #5 pick this year) and their move to a new location (probably want to make a big splash), I can see them as one of the most likely teams in the top 10 to use their pick to go big game hunting. They may draft and use the combination of their futures, but I don't see them keeping the pick.
6. Montreal: Also has accumulated a deep prospect pool in the last few years. A lot of depth, a lot of supporting characters, but no real star players (outside of maybe Slakofsky) developing. They're very deep in defence prospects but bare in scoring. If the top 2 go Celebrini and Demidov, there is no real high end offensive talent left. Given all their top prospects are on defence, I don't think they're looking to draft another and this draft has plenty of them at the top. They have five first rounders in the next 3 drafts and not enough room for them all. Hughs has a record of using picks to accumulate established assets at the draft. I can see them putting together a strong package together to try and get to 2 for Demidov (very unlikely) or use a combination of their surplus D and the pick to get a first line scorer. I think they move the pick, but wouldn't be surprised if the go BPA and use the player in a future transaction.
7. Ottawa: They don't have the draft capital as the two above, but have the benefit of having more stars on their team. Tkachuk and Stutzle are only entering their primes, and with Norris and Batherson they have a good, young top 6. Sanderson looks to be a stud and Chabot and Chychrun give them three top 4 offensive defencemen. Given the depth that there is in D, I can certainly see them drafting D and using Chychrun or Chabot to shore up elsewhere. They have almost 13 million in cap space with no notable RFAs or UFAs needing new contracts. The season was a major disappointment, given how strong the team expected to be. I don't see them moving the pick, but I also don't see them married to it.
8. Seattle: They made the playoffs last year, but regressed this year. Beniers had a poor season relative to his talent and progression. I'm not very familiar with their prospect pool but their roster has a lot of just meh. I don't see them moving the pick at all. Despite their good season last year, I think Francis will stay the course. They'll keep their pick.
9. Calgary: They have 4 picks in the next three years. I see some people saying that they're going to retool, I see some saying they're going to keep going for it given the players they have signed to long extensions. They may want to grab some talent for their d-corps or get a top 6 center if they want to reset on the fly. They have 18.7 million in cap space to try to replace Hanafin, Tanev or Lindholm. The UFA pool looks pedestrian; top UFAs are wingers (Lindholm is the only true top 6 center avalable), though they could pick up a Pesce or Montour or DeMelo. I don't see them trading it, unless there's pressure from ownership to return to playoff contention.
10: New Jersey: Would never have guessed they'd be picking here when the season started. They're set up the middle with J. Hughes possibly having the best value in the league. Having a franchise center locked down for the next 6 years at 8 million??? They have the makings of a great d-corps led by Hamilton, Hughes and Nemec. With their 21 million in cap space, they could certainly be bolstered in free agency (though Mercer, Hughes and Nemec will need deals in the next few years). They're not going into next season with Jake Allen as their #1, though. Is this the currency they use to get Markstrom out of Calgary? I can see them trading the pick.
11. Buffalo: I think the likeliest team to this point to trade for a veteran established player. They have a lot of offensive firepower in their lineup and their farm system, they won't be able to keep them all. With Dahlin, Power and Byram there for the long term, they have a great top 4 going forward. The consensus is that it's just a matter of time before Levi is a true number one. I don't see any obvious holes in their lineup. They are a team of chronic underachievers who could really use a stabilizing presence in their lineup. It's more probable that they trade the pick than keep it.
Of the teams in the top 11, I think as many as six teams that could move them. The value of the picks depends on the quality of prospect available. Obviously the lower the pick, the more probable it could be traded. My impression from listening to some draft gurus is that there is a top 13-15 and then a notable drop-off.
What teams in the top 11 do you see making their picks available? What player or position do you see them targeting in exchange?
